Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[Michael Scarn]

I think ALL of this post needs to be read over and over throughout 2011, particularly the highlighted bits. There is absolutely no value in criticizing anyone's opinion particularly if you do not give an opinion of your own.

Sorry Cam but you're sounding like a broken record. Can you please just move on?

 

[Kahuna]

Sorry Cam but you're sounding like a broken record. Can you please just move on?

Have to agree here, time for Cam to post his tips.

 

[CamTinley]

Have to agree here, time for Cam to post his tips.

I'm taking your 3,000,000/1 on Krakouer. I've already said Krakouer will win it.

 

[Kahuna]

I'm taking your 3,000,000/1 on Krakouer. I've already said Krakouer will win it.

I change my mind, the odds are now $100,000,000,000.

Surely you have other tips.

 

[Rippo]

I'm taking your 3,000,000/1 on Krakouer. I've already said Krakouer will win it.

If you think Krackhead will take enough votes from Swan/Pendlebury/Didak you yourself are on Krack.

i understand its good to be confident on your bet placed but he has no chance in hell of winning the BL

 

[Kahuna]

The supposed "Brownlow Blues" from 2000

In brackets winning tally, year after tally)

2000 - Shane Woewodin (24 - 4)
2001 - Jason Akermanis (23 - 8)
2002 - Simon Black (25 - 12
2003 - Mark Ricciuto (22 - 23)
2003 - Nathan Buckley (22 - 4)
2003 - Adam Goddes (22 - 4)
2004 - Chris Judd (30 - 15)
2005 - Ben Cousins ((20 - 13)
2006 - Adam Goodes (26 - 20)
2007 - Jimmy Bartel (29 - 10)
2008 - Adam Cooney (24 - 3)
2009 - Gary Ablett (30 - 26)

So only 3 players (out of 12) could back up with a tally of 20 or more the year after they won it.

Even if you get rid of the one hit wonders (players who only really achieved one elite brownlow year in Woewodin, Aker, Cooney and Bartel), it still leaves only 3 players out of 8 that polled a realistic brownlow winning tally the year after they won.

Obviously this needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the countless different variables that go into how well a player polls over any given season.

However the Brownlow Blues Theory plays a small part in my decision not to touch Judd until the latter stages of the season, even then it will be tentative. I would not be surprised to see Judd judged a little harsher this year by the umpires due the criticism they received over giving him a few questionable votes last year. Plus i am really confident on Murphy having a much improved season, giving Judd some competition for votes unlike last year.

I just can't see Judd going back to back this year.

If possible could you please further elaborate on how many many the winners played in the following season. I think that are few of them were injured and a couple others were just fluke winners.

 

[CamTinley]

If you think Krackhead will take enough votes from Swan/Pendlebury/Didak you yourself are on Krack.

i understand its good to be confident on your bet placed but he has no chance in hell of winning the BL

Krakouer definitely has a chance of winning it. I'm not going to explain why. I have other tips obviously. In fact you could put a good case for about ten players. Ablett is not out of it either, even if GC only win 4 games.

 

[half_back_flank]

Games played:

2001 - Shane Woewodin 20
2002 - Jason Akermanis 19
2003 - Simon Black 22
2004 - Mark Ricciuto 22
2004 - Nathan Buckley 15
2004 - Adam Goddes 22
2005 - Chris Judd 21
2006 - Ben Cousins 18
2007 - Adam Goodes 22
2008 - Jimmy Bartel 22
2009 - Adam Cooney 20
2010 - Gary Ablett 21

Adding to that, only one winner from the 90's got 15 or more Brownlow votes (Harvey obviously in 1998) the next year.


Not saying it is absolute proof (heaps of variables go into how well a player polls in a season), just pointing out how historically hard it is to back up after a brownlow win.

 

[CatFan79]

Krakouer definitely has a chance of winning it. .

No he doesn't and I can't believe this thread is being clogged up with such talk.

He's not even guaranteed 22 games let alone enough time in the midfield.

Even by the slightest chance if he's in the BOG realm umpires won't notice him or start giving him any votes until round 6 or 7.

 

[Boak10]

Travis Boak is one to watch had a ripper finish to last year and was having a blinder of a preseason from all reports before a small setback. Finished top 10 last year and will not get vote blocked from many other port midfielders. Consider at $101.

 

[BrandonG]

I agree that Murphy has had a ripper preseason, and could go nuts (I have a nibble on him), but a little advice, leave your bias at the door if you let bias cloud your mind, you'll end up wasting a lot of your money. And no one wants that...

i wouldn't put more then 10 bucks on him anyway not a big gambler, but thanks for the advice

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Travis Boak is one to watch had a ripper finish to last year and was having a blinder of a preseason from all reports before a small setback. Finished top 10 last year and will not get vote blocked from many other port midfielders. Consider at $101.

agree if he can find some consistancy. he is now is hes 5th Afl season and ready to become a star IMO.

 

[Kahuna]

Games played:

2001 - Shane Woewodin 20
2002 - Jason Akermanis 19
2003 - Simon Black 22
2004 - Mark Ricciuto 22
2004 - Nathan Buckley 15
2004 - Adam Goddes 22
2005 - Chris Judd 21
2006 - Ben Cousins 18
2007 - Adam Goodes 22
2008 - Jimmy Bartel 22
2009 - Adam Cooney 20
2010 - Gary Ablett 21

Adding to that, only one winner from the 90's got 15 or more Brownlow votes (Harvey obviously in 1998) the next year.


Not saying it is absolute proof (heaps of variables go into how well a player polls in a season), just pointing out how historically hard it is to back up after a brownlow win.

Thanks for that.

As you said its not 100% accurate but it is a good indicator. This has made me a little more hesitant on Judd. This has opened up a lot more players to come into my thoughts.

Whoever said Boak, be quiet.

 

[CROWS2011]

Most heard sentence at the 2011 brownlow
"Gary Ablett, 3 votes"

 

[Kahuna]

Most heard sentence at the 2011 brownlow
"Gary Ablett, 3 votes"

I know a different club/ different situation however. Ablett has only got 3 votes once in a loss in the last three years. Most expect GC to lose a majority of their games so Ablett getting 3 votes the most heard sentence at the 2011 Brownlow is maybe a bit over the top.

I think with Ablett you would be hoping that he can pick up alot of ones and twos in their losses and 3 votes in their wins.

However a lot depends on how GC go.

 

[crog100]

Been reading with much interest for years. Have been quite successful over the past couple of years off a small outlay. Intend on keeping my own count this year and getting a bit more involved.

My preseason tips on the Brownlow and team leaders below:

Win: Selwood - With Ablett gone, coupled with his polling history, I think he's a real chance this year.
Roughie: Sylvia - If Melb can string a few wins together, Sylvia in my book will get votes, inj worries always the concern here.

ADE: Thompson - I think he'll be back to his best, with all the retirements and Vince having injury troubles he's my tip.
BRI: Brown - I dont see brisbane winning many games, Brown usually dominates a handful of games each year which should get him enough votes to hold out the likes of Black (although I have been burnt on that one before)
CAR: Judd - For the obvious reasons, I don't think it's Murphy/Gibbs year.
COL: Swan/Pendlebury - Completed baffled by the Krak talk (I'll be laying him as long as people are backing), 50/50 I'll take Pendlebury based on polling history of Swan.
ESS: Watson - can't see any of the other players doing enough consistently to take it away from Watson.
FRE: Sandilands - stepped it up last year, should continue on, I worry about the long season with lack of ruck support. Pav hasn't polled well the last couple of years. Mundy a chance with a solid year in the middle.
GC: Ablett...
NM: Swallow - think he'll pass Harvey this year, wont poll enough to figure for the medal though
MEL: Sylvia - I think he'll poll well when melb win, he fits the mould, inj/susp the risk
GEE: Selwood - I think it's his year, Bartel could be thereabouts and I'm tempted by the value there. When the season proper starts Johnson is not needed in the middle with the midfield depth, his value is in the forward line.
HAW: Mitchell - sticking with Mitchell, has a good polling history, Cryril, Buddy and Hodge all to share votes
PA: Boak - proved last year he can poll, if port win more than expected he could figure, I doubt it very much.
RIC: Cotchin - Not been great at picking Richmond, if this kid strings a season together though I think he's a chance to take Richmonds honours, he shows a bit if class in the middle.
STK: Hayes - this champ has looked after me the last couple of years, happy to rule out Goddard and I'm not as convinced about Riewoldt dominating this year. Montagna/Dal Santo the challengers to Lenny.
SYD: Goodes - it's hard to go past the guys polling history, Jack to give it a shake and my really dark horse Josh Kennedy.
WC: Priddis - looks good in the preseason, whoever is prominent in their few wins will take this one. Lecras/Cox/Kerr all likely candidates.
WB: Boyd - hard to pick at this stage, I liked Boyd last year so I'll stick with him. Cooney/Higgins the other big chances.

Bring on the season proper!

 

[Rhino5]

^^^^^

Just on the Sydney votes - I agree with you there. There was a lot of excitement earlier in the thread at Jack being $10 and, while I do think that is overs, Goodes and Kennedy will feature prominently. Both in great form and will poll IMO.

Overall for me, Selwood is the best value, followed by Pendles. I think the winner comes form those two.

 

[Slattery_20]

I've just done a bit of study in regards to Scott Thompson's chances to elaborate more on my post which basically said "back Thompson".

Studying the time that he has been at Adelaide (2005 onwards), Thompson has done the following (regular season only)...

Sounds a convincing case for most Crows votes if nothing else.

Unsure which way they'll go - they really want Vince/Van Berlo/Douglas to take a step forward, which'll take votes off Thompson - and if they don't, he'll play in a fair few losing sides IMHO.

 

[PIESPREMIERS2010]

I know there wont be much money coming in pre-season, but I would have thought Pendlebury would have tightened by now.

Had a great pre-season, polls well historically and Collingwood look too good again this year. $17 is great value IMO.

As for Boak - I cant see anyone from Port polling more than him. Over $3 for most team votes is just money for jam IMO. Finished top 10 in the brownlow overall last year at a young age and is only getting better.

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

I know there wont be much money coming in pre-season, but I would have thought Pendlebury would have tightened by now.

Had a great pre-season, polls well historically and Collingwood look too good again this year. $17 is great value IMO.
As for Boak - I cant see anyone from Port polling more than him. Over $3 for most team votes is just money for jam IMO. Finished top 10 in the brownlow overall last year at a young age and is only getting better.

Im backing him to win it, although he will probably go week in week out with the tag and let Swan run around.

 

[Athomas]

I think Pendlebury might suffer from being expected to be so good, and will be getting ones and two's when he should be getting two's and threes just because he can have exceptional games and then games where he's very good and probably one of the best but it's almost expected of him now.

 

[premiers06]

I think Pendlebury might suffer from being expected to be so good, and will be getting ones and two's when he should be getting two's and threes just because he can have exceptional games and then games where he's very good and probably one of the best but it's almost expected of him now.

The thing is that collingwood also won 17.5 games in the regular season. I don't think we will win more games which resulted in 89 votes. With the spread of potential voters I find it hard to imagine that a pie will win this year.

Pendles will really need to step it up for him to win.

 

[Tigertriumph]

Were any of you listening to 3AW the other day when they mentioned the situation in regards to brownlow medal betting? Apparently, the TAB had just recently finished conducting their financial review and got hammered in the team votes (as we all know...) to the extent of over $2 million INCLUDING all the money placed by mug punters. From what I heard they sounded very sceptical about allowing team votes, let alone multis this year. I guess all we can do is hope, but never the less there will always be the option to bet on the overall result which I'm sure when multi-ing with premiership/coleman medal there will always be some level of value to be had...

 

[Effes]

Tigertriumph,

Was it Gary Davies or some other rep from TAB discussing it? Or just the 3AW people?

 

[stuziman]

bugger

im hoping they still release the odds even without multis

some stupid bookie like beteasy might allow multis eventhough the tab dosent