He is $26 a place.
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Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)
- Thread starter CamTinley
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
He is $26 a place.
Colson
Senior List
seems like a good bet considering alot of people are saying he is a roughie
If you look hard enough, you will inevitably find value at this time of year. But consider this, if you are this into football, surely you could reach the value of a $26 place shot of the length of the season, if betting wisely (a.k.a not soho style). I'm going to stick to my guns with the 'no betting before season proper' rule. As a uni student, every buck counts, and I'd be frustrated putting $10 on Jack to place preseason and him going down with a knee 5 minutes into the NAB. If you have the money to burn/tie up, go for it 
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #80
If you look hard enough, you will inevitably find value at this time of year. But consider this, if you are this into football, surely you could reach the value of a $26 place shot of the length of the season, if betting wisely (a.k.a not soho style). I'm going to stick to my guns with the 'no betting before season proper' rule. As a uni student, every buck counts, and I'd be frustrated putting $10 on Jack to place preseason and him going down with a knee 5 minutes into the NAB. If you have the money to burn/tie up, go for it
Aha, im in the exact same boat
Im a uni student and although i really, really,reallly want to place bets now, i just dont want to throw money away. Jack, Swallow making the top 3 is very unlikely IMO, purely because of the players they need to beat. Sure there paying overs and i would probably slash some on Swallow coz his odds are so ridiculously good and i predict the roos to come 8th. Jack will probably be at a better price than 26 sometime during the year or close to that, so no point.
Id prefer to put money on boyd at 51 to win than anything else. Although must admit i havnt looked to closely at prices and value yet.
Dont waste ur $$
anyway just thought id say GL guys, personally will be coming over here every now and again but il be keeping most of the things on the priv forum.
Could do worse than jumping on @ $51. Proven vote getter and now Captain.
Wouldn't bet preseason anyway.
Just wondering what the main reason is for the private forum besides the obvious? I understand the amount of repititive questions that were asked and crap that had to be filtered through at the end of the season last year that the regulars got sick of. However if you have a number of guys that are willing to particapate already before the season has started as we are seeing with this thread, why would they be filtered out of this private forum? Don't get me wrong I understand there are reasons for the private forum, except I think that the number of johnny come latelys shouldn't ruin it for the rest of the guys.
I've never contributed to the forum myself as I didn't see my opinions and explanations sufficed as I just wasn't watching enough games a week, however it was always a great read for the last couple of seasons from the mini community that you guys have gathered here.
I can only speak for myself however i think the general consensus for us posting on the priv forum is their is to many leechers who contributed nothing last year and made the odds shorter for us as well as bookmakers who leeched the forums and inturn shortened odds/cancelled multis etc. As well as all the repetitive questions which were irratating. There will still be around 25% of posters on the priv forum who will contribute here (s1bbald etc) how much they share on BF this season though is unknown.
As for the newer posters who are contributing they will just have to form their own group on BF and weed out the rubbish posters like we had to do for a few seasons i know 100% that the good posters on BF will be picked up and asked to join the private forum at seasons end (November) whether people get picked up before that idk.
jimmyclean
Team Captain
Honestly I am shocked this thread hasn't been moved to the punting forum. It seems like everyone just wants to speculate about where to put their money, very few statistics being used.
The way it's going I may just keep my thoughts out of this thread too, people just looking for a quick buck.
I don't have any intention of holding any information back, but I've yet to really think about it. I may not post my last two rounds or something, just to avoid having a completed count available for all to see online, but I think as a small bit player in comparison to BK etc. this may just be paranoia. But yeah, I intend for the count that trotto, a Saints poster, and I compile, as well as what little insight I can offer, to be a major, if not the major contribution to this thread. Looking forward to meeting all the new Brownlow fanatics this year!
Boyd isnt a bad bet, especially with the WBD start to the season however i personally have a rule of only touching guys who are $75+ preseason as there is just to many variables of things that can go wrong etc, i personally targeted Sam Mitchell when he was $81 now cut into $26, also got on Murphy @ $81 (still can i beleive). If we could bet on a top 5 i would be targeting players like Jack etc. I only really put down $100 or $200 preseason though.
The season proper is when all the statistical analysis happens. It's really quite beautiful!
But for now, there are very few statistics to analyse properly, and after the season's over, all the stats are there, and there's very little further analysis to be done.
jimmyclean
Team Captain
I'll add in a bit of statistics to at least help with selection in 2011.
Left hand column is average votes per game in 2010.
I'd be wary to touch anyone under 0.5 votes per game.
Left hand column is average votes per game in 2010.
Code:
1.579 Judd
1.238 Ablett
1.091 Swan
1.053 Sandilands
1.000 Selwood
1.000 Boyd
0.955 Pendlebury
0.923 Barlow
0.905 Hayes
0.833 Mitchell
0.800 Boak
0.765 Podsiadly
0.762 Watson
0.762 Hodge
0.750 J. Brown
0.727 Montagna
0.727 Riewoldt
0.714 S. Thompson
0.684 Priddis
0.667 Sylvia
0.667 Goddard
0.615 McGlynn
0.591 Harvey
0.591 Goodes
0.588 Franklin
0.550 Didak
0.524 Hall
0.500 Davey
0.500 Swallow
0.474 Wells
0.474 Hannebery
0.467 Burgoyne
0.455 Douglas
0.455 Rischitelli
0.455 Bolton
0.455 Jack
0.450 Mundy
0.438 Fletcher
0.429 Pavlich
0.429 Bartel
0.421 Rodan
0.421 Harbrow
0.409 Simpson
0.400 Johncock
0.400 Cooney
0.389 Moloney
0.389 Brennan
0.381 Chapman
0.375 Goodwin
0.375 Hille
0.368 S Johnson
0.364 Giansiracusa
0.364 Lake
0.333 Power
0.333 Dal Santo
0.318 Lewis
0.318 Deledio
0.318 Riewoldt
0.316 Ballantyne
0.313 Fyfe
0.313 Schulz
0.300 Stanton
0.286 Martin
0.286 Lecras
0.273 Green
0.273 Gibbs
0.273 Scotland
0.273 K. Cornes
0.267 Johnstone
0.263 Shaw
0.250 Jurrah
0.238 Murphy
0.227 Jamar
0.227 Rawlings
0.227 Cassisi
0.214 Grimes
0.200 Tuck
0.182 Tippett
0.182 Thomas
0.176 Greenwood
0.143 Ryder
0.136 Kennedy
0.091 RichI'd be wary to touch anyone under 0.5 votes per game.
- Oct 16, 2008
- 10,657
- 6,375
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Will be able to watch every game this season and am looking forward to making a contribution to this thread over the season.
Set myself a 200 limit to place a few early bets, looking at:
20- Murphy @ 67 (disappointed I've missed the 81s on Iasbet)
50- Pendles @ 21
50- selwood @ 15
50- jack to win sydney @ 10
Set myself a 200 limit to place a few early bets, looking at:
20- Murphy @ 67 (disappointed I've missed the 81s on Iasbet)
50- Pendles @ 21
50- selwood @ 15
50- jack to win sydney @ 10
Rippo
Debutant
But don't you think if you see massive overs and value somewhere you take it! isn't that the name of the game really. As i posted somewhere else on here i took Sylvia at 251/1 then 12 hrs later after opening he was 101/1... now may not win but had to take a pc of that at those odds.... small pineapple layout for potentially 9k return... i thought it was worth a nibble.
- Oct 16, 2008
- 10,657
- 6,375
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Thanks for that. Was going to wait until he got through preseason, but 81 is great value given what he showed in 2009 and 2010 ( where he had no preseason and wasn't able to train for the first 2 months of the season).
Rippo
Debutant
i reckon BK might have had something to do with that AJ form what i read last year and his layouts and hedges etc
I say that because no doubt the same guys who he thought are prob the same guys you wanted to bet on so smashing 5 k on this and that player whould knock a few chunks off them....
Anyway can't wait for the real stuff to start
jimmyclean
Team Captain
These are probably the best unders I can find. (Based on Centrebet odds)
Boak @ 101 to WIN and @ 26 to PLACE
Virtually no one will take votes off him it seems, if Port can win 10 games he is a chance. Last year he was 11th in average votes per game. (avpg)
Podsiadly @ 151 to PLACE
Umpires love him and without GAJ only Selwood really seems to hog the votes. Geelong should get enough wins that if he can string together a few good games he could put himself in the running. Last year he was 12th in avpg!
S. Thompson @ 67 to WIN and @ 17.50 to PLACE
He is a proven vote getter and same as Boak no one seems to catch the umpires eye. Adelaide getting the wins stands in his way. Last year he was 18th in avpg.
(Priddis is similar to Thompson, the difference between the two for me is I expect Adelaide to win far more games than WCE)
Sylvia @ 126 to WIN and @ 32.25 to PLACE
Another that is proven to get votes, only needs a full season and 10+ wins from the Demons to be in with a real crack. Last year he was 20th in avpg.
As far as Most Votes - Team goes:
Boak, Boyd, Selwood, Sandilands and Watson should all be shoe ins if they replicate 2010 form and play a full season.
Boak @ 101 to WIN and @ 26 to PLACE
Virtually no one will take votes off him it seems, if Port can win 10 games he is a chance. Last year he was 11th in average votes per game. (avpg)
Podsiadly @ 151 to PLACE
Umpires love him and without GAJ only Selwood really seems to hog the votes. Geelong should get enough wins that if he can string together a few good games he could put himself in the running. Last year he was 12th in avpg!
S. Thompson @ 67 to WIN and @ 17.50 to PLACE
He is a proven vote getter and same as Boak no one seems to catch the umpires eye. Adelaide getting the wins stands in his way. Last year he was 18th in avpg.
(Priddis is similar to Thompson, the difference between the two for me is I expect Adelaide to win far more games than WCE)
Sylvia @ 126 to WIN and @ 32.25 to PLACE
Another that is proven to get votes, only needs a full season and 10+ wins from the Demons to be in with a real crack. Last year he was 20th in avpg.
As far as Most Votes - Team goes:
Boak, Boyd, Selwood, Sandilands and Watson should all be shoe ins if they replicate 2010 form and play a full season.
jefffff34
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 20, 2001
- 17,790
- 4,188
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Scott Thompson.
johncocksasuperstar
Team Captain
Betting at this stage on the brownlow is essentially like betting on anything else, so many factors that there is a lot of chance that goes into it. The thing about brownlow betting after the season is that it has already happened, yet there are still some good odds.
The less spent at this stage the better, as then you have more to spend from say rd 11 onwards. Although a few sneaky bets at this stage are still fun.
The less spent at this stage the better, as then you have more to spend from say rd 11 onwards. Although a few sneaky bets at this stage are still fun.
Although there is a private forum going on now, I don't see this thread going downhill. For one, i'll be releasing my vote tally (profitable one at that) this year in contrast to other years where I've kept it private.
There will be new people around and new opinions so stick with it cause Brownlow betting, with enough research, is a profitable venture..
There will be new people around and new opinions so stick with it cause Brownlow betting, with enough research, is a profitable venture..
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