Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[Lyyynnnchy]

Sucks you can't multi the mot team votes on centrebet now

Jack @ $10
Judd @ $1.75
S Thompson @ $3
Sandi @ $2.75
J Selwood @ $2.55
Ablett @ $1.28
T Boak @ $3.40
M Boyd @ $2.75

Could do up a few valuable multis

 

[Snoto]

Particularly like that Kieren Jack bet @ 10, should be a lot closer than that. Travis Boak is not a bad one at 3.40 as well, polled well last year.

Anyone like Daniel Rich at 8.00? Should poll well this year considering how depleted Brisbane's midfield are this year. Only threat of course is Big Browny. The amount of games they'll win also could be a factor, but I think 8.00 represents value no?

 

[CamTinley]

I understand what you're saying, but realistically he'd likely only have a shot if Swan or Pendlebury or Didak went down with a season-ender and vacated one of the primary midfield spots.

Sure, but he's not @$20 he's @$100. If he does start in the midfield or starts ahead of Didak, I'm a chance of retiring at the end of 2011.

 

[CamTinley]

Particularly like that Kieren Jack bet @ 10, should be a lot closer than that. Travis Boak is not a bad one at 3.40 as well, polled well last year.

Anyone like Daniel Rich at 8.00? Should poll well this year considering how depleted Brisbane's midfield are this year. Only threat of course is Big Browny. The amount of games they'll win also could be a factor, but I think 8.00 represents value no?

You are 100% right there

 

[s1bbald]

Practice votes from tonight's games:

Game 1: Adelaide v. Melbourne
3. P Dangerfield
2. B Green
1. A Otten

Game 2: Port Adelaide v. Melbourne
3. C Sylvia
2. J Trengove (Melb.)
1. M Thomas

Game 3: Port Adelaide v. Adelaide
3. S Thompson
2. B Symes
1. B Reilly

 

[jimmyclean]

Those getting on Jack you better hope that McGlynn doesn't get a lot of games this season.

In 13 games McGlynn amassed 8 votes compared to 22 games for Jack to accumulate 10 votes.

Personally I think Boak is the best bet in team votes market, the guy gets votes win or lose.

 

[twarby]

I got Krakouer @$201 on Saturday at centrebet. You must have just got in before me. I could only put on $50 too. I should have grabbed the place @67 but didn't. I will still do OK if he wins but should have handled things better.

I'm a chance of retiring at the end of 2011.

10k
you are set!

Krakouer is playing for a spot in the team, he is not going to win the brownlow

 

[CamTinley]

10k
you are set!

Krakouer is playing for a spot in the team, he is not going to win the brownlow

I got Krakouer in multis ie Krakouer/Collingwood Minor Premiership to win $250,000. If Krakouer wins the Brownlow, Collingwood should finish on top you'd think. Unfortunately I backed Krakouer straight out first and his price came in

Krakouer will get a game + the umps aren't impressed with Swans tats or Pendlebury's 70's porno mo. Krakouer will get plenty of it AND kick goals. Collingwood will just about go through undefeated.

I'm not saying he (Krakouer) will win but he's better than the 330/1 for a Krakouer/Collingwood Minor Premiership I got.

If Judds quads don't get him his elbows might

 

[twarby]

the umps aren't impressed with Pendlebury's 70's porno mo.

what sort of call is that?
people like you are the only thing keeping the TAB alive at brownlow time

 

[jimmyclean]

the umps aren't impressed with Swans tats or Pendlebury's 70's porno mo.

what sort of call is that?
people like you are the only thing keeping the TAB alive at brownlow time

Considering Swan amassed 24 votes and Pendlebury 21 I'd say its based on fantasy.

Krakouer stands a chance as the next best vote getter is Didak, but I think its the same problem that Swan and Pendlebury experience, too many votes being taken off them by team mates.

Even if Pendlebury, Swan and Krak share the votes every game and average one vote a game between them they still compete with players like Boyd, Selwood, Sandilands and Judd who will rack up 20 votes without breaking a sweat.

 

[CamTinley]

what sort of call is that?
people like you are the only thing keeping the TAB alive at brownlow time

Let's hear your tip for the Brownlow and with an explanation. That's what this forum is about.

 

[CamTinley]

Considering Swan amassed 24 votes and Pendlebury 21 I'd say its based on fantasy.

Krakouer stands a chance as the next best vote getter is Didak, but I think its the same problem that Swan and Pendlebury experience, too many votes being taken off them by team mates.

Even if Pendlebury, Swan and Krak share the votes every game and average one vote a game between them they still compete with players like Boyd, Selwood, Sandilands and Judd who will rack up 20 votes without breaking a sweat.

Swan got eight, second best on ground votes. That doesn't give the impression that they are desperate to give him votes. I backed Swan in 2008 & 2009 before realizing that the more inked up he gets the less likely he is to get the votes he deserves.

Krakouer is @101.00 that's the attraction.

 

[jimmyclean]

Swan got eight, second best on ground votes. That doesn't give the impression that they are desperate to give him votes. I backed Swan in 2008 & 2009 before realizing that the more inked up he gets the less likely he is to get the votes he deserves.

Krakouer is @101.00 that's the attraction.

He has experienced the same problem yet you expected it to change?

The problem is he has someone that is often just as good on the ground as him, I'd say getting 24 votes gives me the impression they were not desperate to give him votes, but very happy to do so.

Someone like Judd though, he forced the umpires hand, Judd was clearly the best player in wins for Carlton, ensuring he would take the 3 votes. The difference being the gap between best on ground and second best on ground, in Collingwood games there was little gap, in Carlton games there was a large gap.

 

[PRANKSTER666]

Krakouer is playing for a spot in the team, he is not going to win the brownlow

You think the Pies would have drafted a mature age Krakouer with their 1st rounder if they didnt think he would be best 22?

I'm guessing you didn't see him play much last year when he easily won the Sandover Medal and Simpson medal (with his 40 possession 4 goal GF) along with the AAMI WAFL Player of the Year Award, WAFL Football Budget Player of the Year Award and West Australian Newspapers WAFL Player of the Year Award.

He was apparently BOG in the scratch match last week with 28 disposals and 4 goals which only boosts his credentials.

Nobody is saying he is going to win the brownlow but IMO he certainly has the ability to win it at what was very big odds (600/1) last week. I don't think alot of Eastern Staters understand how far he has come since his Richmond days.

Tab Ozbet has slashed him into 20/1 and Sportsbet into 80/1.

Its not a bad novelty bet...

 

[CamTinley]

He has experienced the same problem yet you expected it to change?

The problem is he has someone that is often just as good on the ground as him, I'd say getting 24 votes gives me the impression they were not desperate to give him votes, but very happy to do so.

Someone like Judd though, he forced the umpires hand, Judd was clearly the best player in wins for Carlton, ensuring he would take the 3 votes. The difference being the gap between best on ground and second best on ground, in Collingwood games there was little gap, in Carlton games there was a large gap.

In 2007 Swan got 20 votes and only averaged 23.8 possessions a game. The umpires loved him. That was before the tats.

 

[jimmyclean]

In 2007 Swan got 20 votes and only averaged 23.8 possessions a game. The umpires loved him. That was before the tats.

In 2007 Pendlebury was 19-20. Might have had an impact.

 

[half_back_flank]

Krakouer will get a game + the umps aren't impressed with Swans tats or Pendlebury's 70's porno mo. Krakouer will get plenty of it AND kick goals. Collingwood will just about go through undefeated.

It has been shaved off. Pendles odds have been slashed.

 

[GoodesStuff]

I'm all over it. At this stage, Jack winning Sydney's votes will have me in profit for the year, if I bet as much as I intend

You must have had a fair crack at that then

I just can't believe Centrebet still have Jack and Cooney at $10 and $9 respectively to win their teams most votes.

 

[Kahuna]

I will offer odds of $3000001 for Krakouer.

 

[CamTinley]

I will offer odds of $3000001 for Krakouer.

Great. Who's your tip to win and why?

 

[IDIG]

Just had my first look at the brownlow markets. Liking the following -
Selwood @ 13
Polled 21 last year with 2 x 3 votes, 5 x 2, 5 x 1. Ablett gone who polled 3 votes 5 times last year means he should get a few more 3's. Obviously how Geelong go this year will be the telling factor. I don't imagine them going any worse than Carlton did last year who produced a brownlow winner.

Boak @ 126 win, $17 top 3, $10 top 5
To place more so i think. Polled pretty well last year in only his 4th season. Not sure if he's injured though because he didn't play the other night but if fit, i think he's every chance on improving on last year's numbers.

Jobe and Jimmeh at $51
Both poll well and Watson especially doesn't have anyone to take votes off him except for maybe Hille or Ryder and even that is a stretch.

What do you think? I've never bet on the brownlow until the big night with moderate success last year being my biggest go at it but this year i might try and find some early value.

 

[HeavyPop]

Krakouer would be alright to throw $20 on, but there is a tiny chance he will win it. He will take atleast 5 games to get anywhere near his best and by that time some players have already got 8-9 votes.

 

[CamTinley]

Krakouer would be alright to throw $20 on, but there is a tiny chance he will win it. He will take atleast 5 games to get anywhere near his best and by that time some players have already got 8-9 votes.

Barlow didn't take 5 games to get into the rhythm of AFL footy and Krakouer is better than Barlow.

There is a a chance of Krakouer winning it. If he doesn't I've lost what I would spend on a meal at a restaurant for 5 people. If he wins I retire. I'll take the punt.

 

[Michael Scarn]

Don't see the point in wasting money on Krakouer.

He won't win it.

 

[jimmyclean]

Selwood @ 13
Polled 21 last year with 2 x 3 votes, 5 x 2, 5 x 1. Ablett gone who polled 3 votes 5 times last year means he should get a few more 3's. Obviously how Geelong go this year will be the telling factor. I don't imagine them going any worse than Carlton did last year who produced a brownlow winner.


Jobe and Jimmeh at $51
Both poll well and Watson especially doesn't have anyone to take votes off him except for maybe Hille or Ryder and even that is a stretch.

I love the Selwood pick, you make a great case and he should clearly rack up at least 5 more than last year if he plays as well and as many games.

Also who is Jimmeh? Bartel?