Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[IDIG]

Yep Bartel. Umps love him and if his elbow is right he should poll well coming back into the midfield.

The thing I like about Selwood is he's the type of player who can poll even if his team loses. He polled i think 5 or 6 votes in Geelong's 5 losses last year including a BOG so if the Judd precedent is anything to go by that number can improve.

 

[CamTinley]

Don't see the point in wasting money on Krakouer.

He won't win it.

OK, there's 600+ players who won't win it. Who do you think will win it? Offer something constructive.

 

[blue_boys]

I don't see the point in putting a bet on Krakouer (or most of the other long shot outsiders) to win. You have to face the facts and they are that the brownlow medal goes to a short list of the games elite midfielders (e.g. Judd, Bartel, Ablett etc) of course there are outsiders that have won (that would have been at decent odds at the start of the season) but not of the magnitude of Krakouer. If you reckon that Krakouer will poll well you are better spent putting the money on a top 3 or top 10 finish and hoping he has a ridiculous season (in my opinion still highly unlikely).

He has been out of the system for a while and he is playing for the reigning premiers whos strength is an even team across the board and that's why Swan or Pendlebury haven't won a brownlow yet

 

[CamTinley]

I don't see the point in putting a bet on Krakouer (or most of the other long shot outsiders) to win. You have to face the facts and they are that the brownlow medal goes to a short list of the games elite midfielders (e.g. Judd, Bartel, Ablett etc) of course there are outsiders that have won (that would have been at decent odds at the start of the season) but not of the magnitude of Krakouer. If you reckon that Krakouer will poll well you are better spent putting the money on a top 3 or top 10 finish and hoping he has a ridiculous season (in my opinion still highly unlikely).

He has been out of the system for a while and he is playing for the reigning premiers whos strength is an even team across the board and that's why Swan or Pendlebury haven't won a brownlow yet

Thanks for a response that has been thought out and articulated. It is much more useful than a simple "he won't win" without any other suggestions.

I just disagree with everyone. I still think he can win. I'm not going to give my more detailed reasons why I've just put it out there for other people to think about.

Just remember that on the night of Ben Cousins win in 2005. Daniel Kerr was paying $301. Cousins won with 20 votes, Kerr came second with 19.

That was the night I got really interested in the Medal betting-wise because it proved to me that there was no leaking of votes by the umpires. Ever since I've seen umpires and the Medal in a very different light than I had before.

 

[Jan Juc]

I'll preface this by saying I'm firmly in the camp of "any money on Krak to win the Brownlow is wasted money". Bookies can almost orchestrate a psuedo/fake-plunge themselves by letting the public overhype selections (read: NicNat last year was as short as $41, Scott Thompson (ADE) was backed from $501 to $81 purely thanks to Garry Lyon on 'Classified). This way they get to offer way under the odds due to ''hype'', not logic.

Anyways, here's two markets taken from Centrebet:

TOP CLUB VOTES (COLL only):
2.75 - Swan
2.90 - Pendlebury
4.35 - Didak
10 - Davis
11 - Shaw
14 - Beams
21 - Thomas
26 - Jolly, Krakouer

BROWNLOW ODDS (COLL Players only):
6.50 - Swan
16 - Pendlebury
81 - Didak
101 - Thomas, Krakouer
301 - Sidebottom
401 - Ball
601 - Cloke, Davis, Johnson, Jolly, O'Brien, Shaw, Tarrant, Wellingham

Krak is 8th/9th in line just to be his club's top-votegetter. Yet the ''spruik'' has allowed bookies to wind him in, and continue to wind him in a la NicNat 2010. If I was in the camp that thought Krak had the smallest of most outside chances to win the lot - I'd take the $26 about him winning Collingwood and be happy with that. But I think both are folly.

 

[CamTinley]

I'll preface this by saying I'm firmly in the camp of "any money on Krak to win the Brownlow is wasted money". Bookies can almost orchestrate a psuedo/fake-plunge themselves by letting the public overhype selections (read: NicNat last year was as short as $41, Scott Thompson (ADE) was backed from $501 to $81 purely thanks to Garry Lyon on 'Classified). This way they get to offer way under the odds due to ''hype'', not logic.

Anyways, here's two markets taken from Centrebet:

TOP CLUB VOTES (COLL only):
2.75 - Swan
2.90 - Pendlebury
4.35 - Didak
10 - Davis
11 - Shaw
14 - Beams
21 - Thomas
26 - Jolly, Krakouer

BROWNLOW ODDS (COLL Players only):
6.50 - Swan
16 - Pendlebury
81 - Didak
101 - Thomas, Krakouer
301 - Sidebottom
401 - Ball
601 - Cloke, Davis, Johnson, Jolly, O'Brien, Shaw, Tarrant, Wellingham

Krak is 8th/9th in line just to be his club's top-votegetter. Yet the ''spruik'' has allowed bookies to wind him in, and continue to wind him in a la NicNat 2010. If I was in the camp that thought Krak had the smallest of most outside chances to win the lot - I'd take the $26 about him winning Collingwood and be happy with that. But I think both are folly.

Krakouer's price has come in due to two bets, both from people who have posted on this thread. One $50 bet @$601 brought him in to $201. My $50 bet @$201 brought him into $126 and then probably my other bets brought him into $101. The bookies haven't orchestrated anything.

 

[The_Doctor]

Some early thoughts i have are

Dangerfield - Most Adelaide Votes - $34
Cotchin - Most Richmond Votes - $15
Cooney - Most Bulldogs Votes - $9

Pendlebury/Coll Minor Premiers - $38

 

[kingross29]

I've had a little flutter on Sylvia at $101 to win and $26 to win.

I know this is a Brownlow betting board but I've also had a go at Drew Petrie for the Coleman. Rumor has it North will just play him out the goalsquare this year so at $151 he was worth a go.

Any thoughts?

 

[Jan Juc]

Krakouer's price has come in due to two bets, both from people who have posted on this thread. One $50 bet @$601 brought him in to $201. My $50 bet @$201 brought him into $126 and then probably my other bets brought him into $101. The bookies haven't orchestrated anything.

If that is truly what you believe then I wish you well in your endeavours.

 

[Kahuna]

Anyone thought of having a go at Shaun Burgoyne?

Only had 7 votes last year after not playing the first 7 games and struggling in his first few games in the new team. However towards the end of the year he was on, settled in very well. One of the more flashy players in the team but will still get the tough ball. Only problem is that he was lots of competition for votes with Buddy, Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Rioli. Plus Hawthorn have to win more games.

 

[s1bbald]

Your last sentence pretty much covers it, Kahuna. I'd be considering Buddy ftw, but we all know a suspension is likely at some stage...

 

[CamTinley]

I've had a little flutter on Sylvia at $101 to win and $26 to win.

I know this is a Brownlow betting board but I've also had a go at Drew Petrie for the Coleman. Rumor has it North will just play him out the goalsquare this year so at $151 he was worth a go.

Any thoughts?

I backed Petrie @$201 at Centrebet. I good bet I hope.

 

[blue_boys]

Some early thoughts i have are

Dangerfield - Most Adelaide Votes - $34
Cotchin - Most Richmond Votes - $15
Cooney - Most Bulldogs Votes - $9

Pendlebury/Coll Minor Premiers - $38

I like the two bolded bets a lot. I hate to say it but Collingwood would be raging hot favourites to be minor premiers and Pendlebury is a very good shot at winning the whole thing.

The Cooney bet is also ridiculous for a previous winner and proven vote getter. Not sure what his preseason has been like but if no injury worries then it looks like a real good shot.

 

[Pinnell]

Anyone thought of having a go at Shaun Burgoyne?

Only had 7 votes last year after not playing the first 7 games and struggling in his first few games in the new team. However towards the end of the year he was on, settled in very well. One of the more flashy players in the team but will still get the tough ball. Only problem is that he was lots of competition for votes with Buddy, Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Rioli. Plus Hawthorn have to win more games.

Agree with the above. Hawks on the rise, so look out for their best midfielders to poll......and I rate his chances highly. He won't get tagged and the umpires have voted for him in the past at Port. His breakout year yielded 15 -16 votes or so and he only played half that season on the ball.

As for Andrew Krakour winning it? He is about a $1000 chance.

 

[The_Doctor]

I dont think Travis Varcoe can win the brownlow but if he is given more of a run in the midfield now that Ablett is gone then i can see his odds coming in quite a lot. I liked is second half of the year last year and wouldnt be surprised if he plays a couple BOGs this season and at 1200-1 he might be worth a small back and lay later.

Thats if he is fit for round 1 or 2 though

 

[Slattery_20]

I've had a little flutter on Sylvia at $101 to win and $26 to win.

I know this is a Brownlow betting board but I've also had a go at Drew Petrie for the Coleman. Rumor has it North will just play him out the goalsquare this year so at $151 he was worth a go.

Any thoughts?

I'd be a lot more inclined to go with someone with a better record.

North haven't kicked consistently well to big forwards for 10 years.

Is there odds offered for most goals by club? Could be value.

Or even back then lay.
I could see him in the top 10 or so on 40-50 goals but would be surprised with much more than that.

 

[StringyDog]

The Cooney bet is also ridiculous for a previous winner and proven vote getter. Not sure what his preseason has been like but if no injury worries then it looks like a real good shot.

He hasn't had much of a preseason so be wary and his votes per game is surprisingly low besides his winning year, has not polled as many as he should have in last 2 years, Higgins looks much better value as he did poll 11 votes playing across half forward in 2009 just 3 behind Boyd who was all australian that year and has had a full preseason, his best to date.

 

[Michael Scarn]

Re Burgoyne - I like the $14 to win Hawthorns Votes.
As said above - settled in now and is a chance to win that if he finds consistency.

 

[premiers06]

Re Burgoyne - I like the $14 to win Hawthorns Votes.
As said above - settled in now and is a chance to win that if he finds consistency.

Yeah good call. From looking at the most votes in the team markets it seems like the crows and the hawks at this stage has the most competition for the most team votes with a lot of candidates who could win.

Will also be keeping my eye on david swallow for the suns. Although there are a few more experienced players, he has proven in the vfl last season that he can rack up votes as he came 4th in the VFL best and fairest.

In saying this I wont be betting until at least the middle of the season but thought I would contribute something else to the thread.

Lets hope we have another great year

edit: Also add the bulldogs as an open group too.

 

[twarby]

Krakouer's price has come in due to two bets, both from people who have posted on this thread. One $50 bet @$601 brought him in to $201. My $50 bet @$201 brought him into $126 and then probably my other bets brought him into $101. The bookies haven't orchestrated anything.

you are dumber than i thought

 

[CamTinley]

you are dumber than i thought

Still waiting to hear your contribution. Who is going to win and why?

 

[The_Doctor]

Dont worry CamTinley thats just classic twarby, loves to just sit back and snipe other peoples opinions. Also those bets on Krakouer are enough to bring in the odds

 

[kingross29]

If that is truly what you believe then I wish you well in your endeavours.

I believe him, it's all about what the bookies are willing to risk. I hit a few multis in at both the TAB and Centrebet last year that wound the odds right in and/or stopped betting on the market altogether. Plus if anyone here has been a regular over the last few years BK has stopped betting completely at times, including all pendlebury and collingwood multis if i remember correctly.

 

[kingross29]

I backed Petrie @$201 at Centrebet. I good bet I hope.

Hopefully. Considering he should play mainly out of the square he is definately overs.

 

[kingross29]

Some early thoughts i have are

Dangerfield - Most Adelaide Votes - $34
Cotchin - Most Richmond Votes - $15
Cooney - Most Bulldogs Votes - $9

Pendlebury/Coll Minor Premiers - $38

I like all 3 of those bets and will probably put them on. Pendles into Coll is unders in my opinion.