Brownlow Medal 2011 (Part 1)

[BrandonG]

Just to get things rolling for the new season

From 16 December 2010 - Sportsbet

Swan $10.00
Goddard $12.00
Ablett $12.00
JSelwood $14.00
Judd $14.00
Hodge $16.00
Pendlebury $21.00
Cross $26.00
Cooney $26.00
Montagna $34.00
Hayes $34.00
Sandilands $34.00
Boyd $34.00
Pavlich $34.00
Bartel $34.00
Didak $41.00
Thomas $41.00
Goodes $41.00
Franklin $41.00
Rioli $41.00
JBrown $41.00
Vince $41.00
Chapman $51.00
Watson $51.00
Lake $51.00
MMurphy$51.00
ASwallow $51.00
Priddis $51.00
Dal Santo $51.00
Gibbs $51.00
Deledio $51.00
Jack $51.00
RGriffen $51.00
JRiewoldt $51.00
NRiewoldt $51.00
Barlow $51.00

upwards others

murphy to win or judd back to back

 

[s1bbald]

I agree that Murphy has had a ripper preseason, and could go nuts (I have a nibble on him), but a little advice, leave your bias at the door if you let bias cloud your mind, you'll end up wasting a lot of your money. And no one wants that...

 

[krayfesh]

To be fair, I had an argument/spirited discussion with some jerk at the TAB that said Judd was no chance. He threw a pen at me.

I'm glad he lost his money.

On that subject, wouldn't surprise me at all to see the same top 5 this year.

 

[mike262]

Ummmm....

Higgins at $12 on Sportingbet??? WTH??

101 on sportsbet

 

[s1bbald]

If you wanted to make idiots of Sportingbet, you can still get on him to be Top 3 at $34. But I don't see it as worth it.

 

[Kahuna]

Don't rate Higgins a chance, a walking injury and to be honest I think he is a little overated. If I was going to get on anyone from the dogs it would be Boyd, gets plenty of it and will be more noticed now being the captain.

 

[s1bbald]

^^ My thoughts, word for word.

 

[StringyDog]

Just for the counter argument for some thought, Higgins polled only 3 votes less than Boyd despite missing 5 games and playing last couple injurred at end of year when Boyd was in all australian team year before last. This has had his best preseason, Thyroid problems gone and it is the best I have seen Higgins look and move since being at club. When he is fit Higgins is definately an eye catcher.

 

[jefffff34]

I've just done a bit of study in regards to Scott Thompson's chances to elaborate more on my post which basically said "back Thompson".

Studying the time that he has been at Adelaide (2005 onwards), Thompson has done the following (regular season only)...

128 games
75 votes - (0.586PG)
34 games polled in - (polled once in every 3.765 games)
14 BOG's - (gained 3 votes once in every 9.143 games)


Now with those raw stats now known, I decided to closely study the games that Thompson polled votes, but did not get the BOG, and focus specifically on the players that got a tiny bit more noticed - and perhaps are no longer there......

Anyway the tally of players that blocked him from 3 votes are as follows...

Simon Goodwin - 4 (gone)
Andrew McLeod - 3 (gone)
Graham Johncock - 2
Tyson Edwards - 1 (gone)
Brett Burton - 1 (gone)
Nathan Bock - 1 (gone)
Bernie Vince - 1
Michael Doughty - 1
Scott Welsh - 1 (long gone)
Ian Perrie - 1 (long gone)
Martin Mattner - 1 (long gone)
Mark Ricciuto - 1 (long gone)

There were also eight players from other teams that took votes off him, which had no particular correlation IMO, those players were Black, S.Burgoyne, Lucas, Grover, Ablett, Bartel, Giansiracusa and Pendlebury.

Now from what I reckon stands out most of the above information, is that the three key midfielders (not Burton and Bock) have now left., Obviously they are Goodwin, McLeod and Edwards. So I decided to look at the stats to see how Thompson goes when there has been at least one of those players missing that he has played in.....

26 games
23 votes - (0.885PG)
10 games polled in - (polled once in every 2.600 games)
4 BOG's - (gained 3 votes once in every 6.500 games)

Now see when there are two of the players missing...
10 games
12 votes - (1.200PG)
5 games polled in - (polled once in every 2.000 games)
3 BOG's - (gained 3 votes once in every 3.333 games)

And finally, when all three players have missed...(only rounds 17-22 last season)
6 games
6 votes - (1.000PG)
3 games polled in - (polled once in every 2.000 games)
1 BOG - (gained 3 votes once in every 6.000 games)


Given the small number of games to take data from, I don't particularly take too much from the last lot of data, but there is definitely correlation from how Thompson has polled with those players in the team, to how much better he does with them not there.

 

[St Oxley]

^^^^^^^

this is the type of lateral thinking and in depth research people need to do, instead of coming on here and asking stupid questions, top draw stuff.

 

[GoodesStuff]

And why the Brownlow thread is here on the stats board, and not on the punting board

 

[s1bbald]

TL;DQ.

What a terrible post. Some of us are going to uni and don't have that much money, and when you post clearly and informatively like that, it seriously makes us consider parting with what little of our hard earned we have. Take a good hard look at yourself .

But seriously, great post mate. Regardless of what people say about private forums, and not divulging information etc. etc., as long as we have posters who are willing to think through what they post and back it up with statistical fact like you have, we'll be more than alright. And who knew a Collingwood fan could have such a fine grasp on the English language! (That had to be done...)

 

[Kahuna]

I think Judd will win the Brownlow.

Some stats to back this up.

Carlton in the last two years have won 24 games. In those 24 games Judd has polled votes in these games 18 times. So when Carlton win Judd has polled votes in 75% of those games. That is a remarkable amount.

Further more research shows that he is polled 3 votes in 12 of Carltons wins, so half the games Carlton has won he was scored the three votes, plus plenty more 2's and 1s.

Also in Carltons 20 losses in this period of time, he has polled votes in 4 of these games (20%).



Assuming Carlton do as well or better as they have in the last couple of years then Judd will win his third Brownlow.

 

[Michael Scarn]

I think Higgins has the X factor to at least place in this years brownlow.

But i won't back him because of the well known injury problems.

As said above, he is an eye-catcher, silky skills and moves beautifully.

If he is over the injuries, as many say he is, he is certainly one to watch.

 

[roonskins]

I think Judd will win the Brownlow.

Some stats to back this up.

Carlton in the last two years have won 24 games. In those 24 games Judd has polled votes in these games 18 times. So when Carlton win Judd has polled votes in 75% of those games. That is a remarkable amount.

Further more research shows that he is polled 3 votes in 12 of Carltons wins, so half the games Carlton has won he was scored the three votes, plus plenty more 2's and 1s.

Also in Carltons 20 losses in this period of time, he has polled votes in 4 of these games (20%).



Assuming Carlton do as well or better as they have in the last couple of years then Judd will win his third Brownlow.

Baring a bad injury, you could be on the money their.

 

[CamTinley]

I think Judd will win the Brownlow.

Some stats to back this up.

Carlton in the last two years have won 24 games. In those 24 games Judd has polled votes in these games 18 times. So when Carlton win Judd has polled votes in 75% of those games. That is a remarkable amount.

Further more research shows that he is polled 3 votes in 12 of Carltons wins, so half the games Carlton has won he was scored the three votes, plus plenty more 2's and 1s.

Also in Carltons 20 losses in this period of time, he has polled votes in 4 of these games (20%).



Assuming Carlton do as well or better as they have in the last couple of years then Judd will win his third Brownlow.

I agree with the stats, but Judd has had quite a few incidents looked at by the tribunal and I think he is going to run out of luck sooner rather than later.

 

[s1bbald]

Keeping in mind he did miss the first 3 games from suspension last year Cam, so he's not exactly the MRP's golden child like he is with the umps. That said, he got away with one against Pav last year, and he surely would have close to 100 carryover points? We all know the MRP is a bit of a raffle though, unless you're David Hille or Buddy Franklin (opposite extremes...).

 

[Kahuna]

Yeah but getting suspended is always a risk when you are betting on the Brownlow, anyone could get suspended for a accidental high bump or momentary stupid decision. I think its a risk worth taking.

 

[s1bbald]

Exactly. It's as much of a lottery as injuries basically. Except there are those select few that you wouldn't bet on, simply because of the fact they are highly likely to be suspended. Quite often, these players and those in the running for the Brownlow don't overlap though. Players I'd be apprehensive on placing any money on due to incoming suspensions, but that I consider a legit chance, would be Franklin (polled 20 votes back in '07, was it?), and I'd think twice about someone like Sandilands too, especially after the bump he placed on Phil Davis last year. All it takes is a slight slip of the foot and you're already connecting with the guy's elbow, almost without a duck of the head, and going by Franklin's bump on a Swans player mid-to-late last year (I'm fairly sure, may have even been the Cousins bump), difference in height doesn't seem to be an excuse for leniency at the MRP.

And while finding a ruckman who is capable of winning the Brownlow is rare, I still think it's very rare to find that 'gifted athlete' ruckman who is immune from (for lack of a better term) what can only be described as moments of sheer *******ity. We even saw a few from the other AA ruckman tonight (granted, it's Feb). I'm not sure I could put money on someone who I still, in the back of my mind, think could be capable of a Gomer Pyle moment along the line... But that's just me.

 

[Michael Scarn]

Players who you think will get suspended is a bigger risk than those you think will get injured.

Players can still win the brownlow if they miss through injury for a game or 2.
They cannot still win if suspended.

 

[s1bbald]

Decent point. But you have to think also, Judd and Ablett have been capable of winning on shortened seasons, but that in large is because in their year, they haven't had someone of their particular Brownlow calibre complete a full season against them (Ablett was in a league of his own in '09, and Judd's situation in regards to carrying Carlton through the season was second to none in some regard in '10). When you consider someone like Lenny Hayes or Scott Pendlebury, who are both legitimate chances of winning the thing, missing through a 1-2 week injury and factoring in, "well hey, Judd and Ablett both won the Brownlow off 19 games...", one thing that could slip the mind is that they are now not only competing against those players who could on the back of completing full seasons, but there are genuine contenders stepping up from their own side to 'steal' votes from them.

Looking back, Judd really was a punter's dream at the end of 2010, and I'd be surprised if we were to see something like that again soon, as most of the sides I see challenging for finals have 1-2 players that could at least be a smokey for the gong at year's end. As for Ablett in '09, why he wasn't at Swan like prices leading into that night, I'll never know. And frankly, I don't care, I'm just glad Hayes/Vince/Lecras did their job

 

[half_back_flank]

The supposed "Brownlow Blues" from 2000

In brackets winning tally, year after tally)

2000 - Shane Woewodin (24 - 4)
2001 - Jason Akermanis (23 - 8)
2002 - Simon Black (25 - 12
2003 - Mark Ricciuto (22 - 23)
2003 - Nathan Buckley (22 - 4)
2003 - Adam Goddes (22 - 4)
2004 - Chris Judd (30 - 15)
2005 - Ben Cousins ((20 - 13)
2006 - Adam Goodes (26 - 20)
2007 - Jimmy Bartel (29 - 10)
2008 - Adam Cooney (24 - 3)
2009 - Gary Ablett (30 - 26)

So only 3 players (out of 12) could back up with a tally of 20 or more the year after they won it.

Even if you get rid of the one hit wonders (players who only really achieved one elite brownlow year in Woewodin, Aker, Cooney and Bartel), it still leaves only 3 players out of 8 that polled a realistic brownlow winning tally the year after they won.

Obviously this needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the countless different variables that go into how well a player polls over any given season.

However the Brownlow Blues Theory plays a small part in my decision not to touch Judd until the latter stages of the season, even then it will be tentative. I would not be surprised to see Judd judged a little harsher this year by the umpires due the criticism they received over giving him a few questionable votes last year. Plus i am really confident on Murphy having a much improved season, giving Judd some competition for votes unlike last year.

I just can't see Judd going back to back this year.

 

[dylan123]

^
Interesting post.

Fwiw, Ricciuto actually polled 23 votes the year after he won it to be runner up in the 04 season.

So that brings the tally up to 3 players out of 12 which is still very low.

 

[half_back_flank]

^
Interesting post.

Fwiw, Ricciuto actually polled 23 votes the year after he won it to be runner up in the 04 season.

So that brings the tally up to 3 players out of 12 which is still very low.

Cheers mate, must have been looking at his 2005 total, edited.

 

[CamTinley]

Bought new house and now looking forward to the new season and discussing all things brownlow. Many questions will be answered in 2011. Here are a few that come to mind.

Swan? It took Ablett a few years and player association medals before the umps followed suit. Will it happen for him? Forwards? Is it time? Full season by someone like Riewoldt or Brown, who knows maybe 2011 is the year? Selwood & Pendles? Obvious value. Both could take Judd's teacher's pet title in 2011. Judd? Dare I say it, it is not impossible for him to win his 3rd at some point. 2011 or 2012? Or will Gibbs/Murphy step up? Hodge? Captain now. Just what he needs to swing a few more votes his way. Noticed umps calling him Hodgey and appear to 'like' him now. Freo player? A big year by dockers may see a purple charlie? And purple leads me to Hayes. Has Lenny got one in him? Or another Saints player? Will the Sun shine out of Ablett now he has gone north without his helpers? What about Boyd & others? Obviously there are other strong contenders for the b'low .. who will it be?

Noone knows just yet so it is hard to say this early, but I thought I'd contribute a bit by giving a few tips before the season starts. Some do's and donts.

Do Nots: 1. Do not just go by newpaper votes or be swayed by glowing articles on certain players/teams. Tabloid papers have their own agenda; to sell papers to their larger demographic groups. Glowing articles don't change umpires votes and their 'best players' on games aren't necessarily BOG players from an umpire perspective. I am sure we are all aware of certain newspapers/journalists who get it wrong most of the time.
2. Don't waste you money laying bets now, you'll only get hurt. Save your Johnny Cash until the regular season. Better yet, into the season or mid year when you have a better idea of how things are panning out.
3. Don't criticise other peoples opinion on this thread. Sure question their ideas, take them or leave them, but more negative posts will mean more people will leave or simply not post.
Do's
1. Do your own research. Trust your judgement. Watch as many games as possible. Share your opinions or not; up to you, but generally speaking when you give you get back.
2. Think like an umpire. Umpires think like a politically correct teacher. There is a big tip right there.
3. Do look at statistics, but don't live by them. Some players with fewer stats break open games, change the flow. Their influence at certain points stand out more than cheap stats.
4. Do enjoy it. Remember it is us against the bookies. It should be a fun way to make a bit of money. Let's hope this thread doesn't go off the track too much this season. All in all I really enjoy these threads as I think most people do. Enjoy it.

Have a Merry Christmas All.

I think ALL of this post needs to be read over and over throughout 2011, particularly the highlighted bits. There is absolutely no value in criticizing anyone's opinion particularly if you do not give an opinion of your own.