Carlton 2024 - Are they being overestimated?

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Overall Carlton played no better or worse than they did against Geelong or Collingwood (played about 50% of the game well and 50% poorly). They just got on the right side of a close result, and were probably due that. And their personnel was seriously boosted, but with no real affect on performance.

People writing off the Blues were silly. People saying flaws were only personnel based were silly. Voss simply got his boys fired up, at least for a half, and it was enough. As I thought he would.

I don’t think Martin and McGovern inclusions can be understated. Both will be better for the run.

 

[My Tilly]

Our big mids and forwards will trouble them especially on the smaller ground.

Thought we held Pickett and Fritsch well tonight so no reason why we can’t do similar again.

Sydney will rightly be favourites and most will tip them but I don’t think it’ll be a thumping if that’s what you’re implying.

I didn't say a thumping but I expect Sydney to win by 30 points.

 

[Mr Meow]

I don’t think Martin and McGovern inclusions can be understated. Both will be better for the run.

Sure, long term you could make a case but for me only if you throw Saad onto that list as well.

Tonight neither were in Carlton's best players and I think even Young could've performed okay against Melbourne's talls. So I think Carlton would've won anyway.

Your difference makers are doing their thing, which is basically enough for a series of close matches against good teams. I'm not sitting here thinking Carlton have levels to go up to anymore than I am with the other contenders. All can raise their game from here. Sydney the closest to nailing it so far.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I didn't say a thumping but I expect Sydney to win by 30 points.

No you said you can’t see us getting within 5 goals which I think is ridiculous. It may well happen that way but there’s no way you can predict that with any confidence.

Outside of the infamous GWS “dead rubber” Carlton haven’t lost by more than 16 points in over 20 games. We generally hang in there well. But it will be tough to get over the line against a top Sydney side.

 

[My Tilly]

No you said you can’t see us getting within 5 goals which I think is ridiculous.

That is correct.
5 goals = 30 points

 

[Hippster]

Blues are patchy. But really should have beaten Cats. Pies was close. Beat GWS well. It’s all pretty even up top. Everyone seems to be able to play very well and then quite poor. Can throw a blanket over about 7 or 8 teams IMO.
Blues could easily finish 2-4 or just as easily 6-8.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Sure, long term you could make a case but for me only if you throw Saad onto that list as well.

Tonight neither were in Carlton's best players and I think even Young could've performed okay against Melbourne's talls. So I think Carlton would've won anyway.

Your difference makers are doing their thing, which is basically enough for a series of close matches against good teams. I'm not sitting here thinking Carlton have levels to go up to anymore than I am with the other contenders. All can raise their game from here. Sydney the closest to nailing it so far.

IMO it is about bumping the next guy down a role. Martin was quiet tonight but he demands respect, allowed Owies to get off the leash and they were just a little bit less worried about Charlie than they otherwise would’ve been. McGovern the same, Kemp, Cowan and Cincotta had less responsibility and were allowed to shut down Pickett and Fritsch whilst he mopped up.

I think we have 6 best 22 injuries now, only Docherty, Saad and potentially Cerra (I won’t list Fogarty) are real difference makers and one won’t be available for the rest of the year so as I said it is at a manageable point.

 

[Mr Meow]

IMO it is about bumping the next guy down a role. Martin was quiet tonight but he demands respect, allowed Owies to get off the leash and they were just a little bit less worried about Charlie than they otherwise would’ve been. McGovern the same, Kemp, Cowan and Cincotta had less responsibility and were allowed to shut down Pickett and Fritsch whilst he mopped up.

I think we have 6 best 22 injuries now, only Docherty, Saad and potentially Cerra (I won’t list Fogarty) are real difference makers and one won’t be available for the rest of the year so as I said it is at a manageable point.

Maybe, but Owies was already off the chain last week. I just think individual player and even coaching performance varies far too much week to week to know. I have the critical mass theory where you can't lose multiple strong players from: KPFs, KPDs, rucks or midfielders (e.g two A grade midfielders or quality key defenders). Otherwise most sides can cope as long as their remaining top liners are playing well, which Carlton's are.

Maybe on occassion there is an exception. Geelong are especially reliant on its small forwards and creative forward flankers. Maybe for us losing 2 or 3 of them is as important as Carlton losing McKay and Curnow. But I think Carlton's core side and how it's performing will not change too much based on personnel from here. And with the personnel changes over the past 3 weeks I've seen pretty similar performances that do back that up.

Voss getting more out of the core squad? Or those players simply upping their level? THAT can happen. And it's just a theory but I wouldn't see it happening because Motlop and Saad return.

 

[Blue1980]

I think we are going ok, being over or underestimated, depends what people thought of us at the beginning of the year.

If you thought we were going to tear up the competition and be clearly the best side, we clearly aren’t that.


To me we look like a dangerous top 6-7 side, though not consistent enough to be considered one of the very best.

That can change though, still 14 rounds to go. 6-3 is probably par where most people thought we’d be.

 

[FootyLad0]

Blues are patchy. But really should have beaten Cats. Pies was close. Beat GWS well. It’s all pretty even up top. Everyone seems to be able to play very well and then quite poor. Can throw a blanket over about 7 or 8 teams IMO.
Blues could easily finish 2-4 or just as easily 6-8.

Based on?
We could say the same with us and Melbourne.
Had we kicked our last two set shots that sprayed badly late in the game we are 8-0.

It means absolutely nothing, especially since there was close to a 30 point margin between Cats and Blues at one point, took the foot off the gas in the last when game was pretty much decided.

Carlton are legit and will be there come Finals time but you can’t say “should have” for losses.
They didn’t, that’s what matters.

 

[bourbons]

And their personnel was seriously boosted, but with no real affect on performance.

Couldn't disagree more to be honest. Trac gave Gov a bath after going forward and Martin faded, but thought both were pretty important early in building that lead.

Will be better for the run, just gotta hope they can stay on the park and get a bit of continuity.

 

[bourbons]

Tonight neither were in Carlton's best players and I think even Young could've performed okay against Melbourne's talls. So I think Carlton would've won anyway.

Ha, just no. Young is an absolute liability.

 

[carlton_99]

Ha, just no. Young is an absolute liability.

It's not even Young defensively - it's the ball movement out of the back 50 that looks far better with Gov/Kemp over Young.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

they are a good team, but inconsistent.

I think Melbourne were asleep in the first half and when they woke up the wet stopped them. Think Carlton were a bit lucky in the end, but a W is a W.

I still think Carlton will be there in the pointy end of the season. I think they will make the Prelim again, whether or not they can make the GF and even win it is the unknown for me.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It's not even Young defensively - it's the ball movement out of the back 50 that looks far better with Gov/Kemp over Young.

Yeah, Young is not a bad individual player, just the entire team defense seems to collapse any time he takes to the field. It's a little bit bizarre.

He looked a fantastic pick up his first year when Weitering was out and he was able to just stick to the oppo's best KPF like a bad smell but has looked lost any time he's had to play a different role since.

 

[carlton_99]

Yeah, Young is not a bad individual player, just the entire team defense seems to collapse any time he takes to the field. It's a little bit bizarre.

He looked a fantastic pick up his first year when Weitering was out and he was able to just stick to the oppo's best KPF like a bad smell but has looked lost any time he's had to play a different role since.

I still think he is fine depth - don't think many teams would have a much better 5th string tall defender.

 

[Ambrosia]

Been impressed with their team defence. Feel like their back 6 holds it's shape really well and they don't give up many transition goals.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I feel like they really don't know how to control the end of the game when they're in the lead. Games against Richmond, Adelaide and Melbourne never should've been that close but Carlton just completely shut up shop with 5-10 minutes left inviting Melbourne to attack at will.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

I think our best is clearly up there with the other contenders. You’d have contenders narrowed down to (in no order):
Sydney
GWS
Geelong
Collingwood
Carlton
Melbourne

And all of these teams have had bad or unexpected losses, except Geelong

I think these teams will be the only teams that fight for top four but I’m not sure on what order/who misses. Carlton are good but I don’t know that they are warranted premiership fancies yet.

 

[Mr Meow]

Ha, just no. Young is an absolute liability.

I'm fine for Young to be ripped to shreds. I just don't think against Melbourne's KPFs he is that important.

 

[bourbons]

It's not even Young defensively - it's the ball movement out of the back 50 that looks far better with Gov/Kemp over Young.

Yeah he's ok in an aerial contest, even takes a nice mark occasionally - but when the ball hits the deck its absolute heart in mouth stuff, and yep as you say he can't provide the quick release kick Gov hit several times in the first quarter.

 

[bourbons]

they are a good team, but inconsistent.

I think Melbourne were asleep in the first half and when they woke up the wet stopped them. Think Carlton were a bit lucky in the end, but a W is a W.

I still think Carlton will be there in the pointy end of the season. I think they will make the Prelim again, whether or not they can make the GF and even win it is the unknown for me.

Reckon the Dees were lucky the wet arrived actually, only started raining properly around 1/4 time after which they got back into it.

 

[bourbons]

Been impressed with their team defence. Feel like their back 6 holds it's shape really well and they don't give up many transition goals.

That was the case last night but certainly not the few weeks before that, need to see it more consistently.

 

[bourbons]

I'm fine for Young to be ripped to shreds. I just don't think against Melbourne's KPFs he is that important.

As has been noted its not so much the 1-on-1s against oppo KPFs thats his worry, its all the other parts of the modern D50 game.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

I didn't say a thumping but I expect Sydney to win by 30 points.

What a surprise - what was your tip in last nights game again?