Autopsy Cats lose to GWS by 7 points.

[fpm84]

Just had a look at previous history. The last time a reigning premier had a win-loss record similar or worse to us after Round 11 was Port Adelaide's 4-6-1 in 2005. They ended up sneaking into 8th spot at season's end, walloped North in the first final before getting smashed by Adelaide in the semi.

Prior to that it was Adelaide in 1998 with a 5-6 record. They ended up winning the flag that year, but that was under a different finals system where they finished 5th and stayed in the hunt despite being smashed by 8 goals in the first week of the finals.

To me the W-L record has been irrelevant until it becomes relevant. We have not had a fair run at it all season with anywhere from a handful of players to half our best 22 missing. Early in the season our backline was depleted with Kolo, J Henry, Stewart missing and SDK hobbled (and then concussed). Now it’s our midfield with Danger, Guthrie, Holmes, Duncan, even Bowes, Menegola and Clark, all unavailable. I have posted before that I can never remember a season where we’ve been smashed by injuries like this with no end in sight (seems like we can’t get through a game unscathed after losing Holmes and Esava over the last fortnight).

It is telling that the only team with a worse injury list than ours is WCE, who cannot get within 50 points of anyone else. I am positive that others are playing injured, Tuohy has clearly had a back problem this season for one.

Getting smashed in the middle three weeks running is the least surprising thing of all time. No matter how much we may want it to happen, Atkins is not going to suddenly become Dangerfield, and Bruhn is not going to rack up possessions like Guthrie does, and Knevitt is not going to influence games the way Holmes already does. These are the cards we are currently dealt and there is nothing we can do except ride it out until we have something resembling our preferred side out there.

Unfortunately now though, the W-L record is becoming relevant. If we pull together close to our b22 and play finals, I will be confident in our ability to beat anyone, anywhere. But to get there we will need to turn things around quickly and have some good wins over sides above us on the ladder, and that’s simply not going to happen with the 23 we fielded yesterday.

 

[cats_09]

'Tiny Dancer' for #16 who seems to be his new favourite player. That, Riccardi (who GWS seem to always play high half back in games not involving Geelong), and Greene kicked 10 of their 11 goals.

Between Greene & Riccardi they kicked 7 goals of GWS's 12 goals, not 10 of their 11

Daniels kicked 3, Briggs & Bedford 1 each

 

[kickazz]

Isaac Smith is going great, no problems with him at present.

Fumbled a bit last night and sometimes just kicks it too high.

 

[Mr Meow]

Injuries training loads injuries injuries umpires..

The fact we lost that game is ******* embarrassing.... This team had reverted back to round 1 form. I was right all along. Where Chris got to say.. oh ye you know we won't overreact blabla. We will be lucky to make top 8 now

One game off 7th and 2 games off 4th with 12 games to go. Yeah, no chance, wrap this season up.

 

[Vdubs]

Chris Scott's argument will end up being that we just have to string 4 wins together at the right time, but it's difficult to see the team finding cohesion after the wretched injury run we're having.

The Giants were all over us this afternoon, and whilst they've shown some spirit under Kingsley to date, they are a middle of the road side missing some of their best players. The worry is that that's all we are too at the moment.

Our midfield load was always going to be stretched in 2023 even with a full list to choose from; Dangerfield, Duncan and Guthrie all have a lot of miles on the clock; after those three the depth of class falls away pretty quickly. With everyone fit and firing Scott and co might have been able to manage minutes well enough that we were still pretty formidable, but it just has not worked out that way.

Hopefully Mullin can be the Jed Bews understudy that we so desperately need.

Bewsy is not that down imho,

I have put the match statistics and footage into my Chris Scott AI bot and it came up with the following:

”Frustrated? That‘s not how I would describe it. As a coaching group we are really clear on what we are trying to achieve. It’s not my job to get frustrated. I’ll leave that to others.

I’m not going to sit here and say it’s all going to plan. Clearly we are falling short of where we’d like to be.

Some of that is personnel related and some of it is executing the plan we’ve put in place. We know we are going to get some players back post-bye that will help with both of those things.

But we are really confident as a group that our best football is ahead of us.

Sav’s hamstring? I’m not a medico so I’m really reluctant to comment on these things but just chatting to him after the game it seemed to be more on the tightness side than anything. Taking him off was just precautionary.”

Why not quote the real thing? Not that hard.

 

[TEDDY24INC]

To me the W-L record has been irrelevant until it becomes relevant. We have not had a fair run at it all season with anywhere from a handful of players to half our best 22 missing. Early in the season our backline was depleted with Kolo, J Henry, Stewart missing and SDK hobbled (and then concussed). Now it’s our midfield with Danger, Guthrie, Holmes, Duncan, even Bowes, Menegola and Clark, all unavailable. I have posted before that I can never remember a season where we’ve been smashed by injuries like this with no end in sight (seems like we can’t get through a game unscathed after losing Holmes and Esava over the last fortnight).

It is telling that the only team with a worse injury list than ours is WCE, who cannot get within 50 points of anyone else. I am positive that others are playing injured, Tuohy has clearly had a back problem this season for one.

Getting smashed in the middle three weeks running is the least surprising thing of all time. No matter how much we may want it to happen, Atkins is not going to suddenly become Dangerfield, and Bruhn is not going to rack up possessions like Guthrie does, and Knevitt is not going to influence games the way Holmes already does. These are the cards we are currently dealt and there is nothing we can do except ride it out until we have something resembling our preferred side out there.

Unfortunately now though, the W-L record is becoming relevant. If we pull together close to our b22 and play finals, I will be confident in our ability to beat anyone, anywhere. But to get there we will need to turn things around quickly and have some good wins over sides above us on the ladder, and that’s simply not going to happen with the 23 we fielded yesterday.

Yep, time is the issue now.. we could very well rocket home and miss the finals 93 style

 

[PzBlinky]

Some more random observations in the light of day...

* Cameron's not off the boil, he's just not kicking straight. 2.7 in the last week shows he's getting shots. Turn 2.3 last night into 4.1 and that's the game. Not sure what's happened though, because he couldn't miss earlier in the season (only kicked 2+ behinds twice in the first 9 games).

* Parfitt tried hard early, but he's just so out of form he's a passenger at best and liability at worst. That kick into the centre in the last was certainly a better option than the blaze for glory - but somehow picked out the Giants player. Not his fault they took it down the other end for the sealer, but another example of how far off he is.

* O'Connor had a shocker - fumble, fumble, fumble. He's not the cleanest player at the best of times but normally not that nervous with the ball. Was reasonably solid earlier in the year but hard to say where's he at right now.

* Miers - yeah, he missed a gettable goal but would have to be up there for B&F. Thought he was our best player behind Stewart last night. His delivery into F50 is Hawkins-esque.

* Ratugolea had played a good game until going off injured, but bizarrely enough I think him out of the action helped us. Stewart stepped up, and with him picking off the intercepts our rebound game stepped up big time. It coincided with the whole team pulling their collective finger out but as good as Sav as with intercepts and spoils, rebound is not his strength.

* Seeing Stengle in the middle... man, the midfield cupboard is bare. Don't like it, don't want him wasted there. He's not Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

, don't play him there.

* Mullin was very encouraging for a career that's now 5(?) VFL/AFL games in total. Has the physical attributes and he didn't seem overawed. Would've brought the house down if he'd kicked that goal. I'd be playing him next week.

* Bruhn went OK, especially playing with a banged up shoulder. 16 disposals in 53% game time (lower due to being off injured?) is not bad. Still wasn't super clean and did that weird shepherd, but is cracking in.

* Knevitt is another who I think will make it, but seems to be developing a knack for making a bad mistake. Last week missed an absolute soda and then this week... could be recency bias! Hard to judge his game being the sub, but his marking power is a big asset. Will be interested to see his game develop into next year.

* Ceglar did well, and has been since being in the team. That is all.

* At a team level, watching the Giants spread and have options through the corridor time and time again was probably the most frustrating thing about last night. I can be critical of our backline but our midfield (I know, it's a pretty loose term at this point) did bugger all to help them out again.

* Extending on that defensive pressure theme - 4 F50 tackles for the whole game? No wonder they could waltz it up the field. Disappointing from Close, Stengle, and Henry. Hawkins wasn't moving quite right - could be injured? Either way, it made things too easy for them.

Watching the flow and getting a feel of the game, it seemed like we were out-played comfortably and yet we were a goal away with 3 minutes to go.

Of course, the elephant in the room is that it's impossible to assess the group with the level of injuries we have.

The worry now is that for all the talk of "when we get players back and the injuries let up"... as we're seeing, the injuries don't have to let up. Sav was as healthy as anyone on the list and now he's out for the foreseeable future. We can rage and rail all we like, but if it keeps up the season will be dusted.

 

[Sire of Claude]

With each passing week I appreciate last year's heroics all the more.

It's beyond me why we're always favourites - recency bias at work.

Mieirs has been great but can't a kick goal to save himself. Cameron's misses have hurt us badly but he can't be expected to drag us over the line every time we're in strife.

Those pushing for another speculative ruck need their heads read: we urgently need mids who can get their digits on the pill. Years of wasting our first round draft pick have hurt us there - Clark may be the exception as he looked classy in his brief appearance a fortnight ago. (Incidentally, was Narkle a better bet than Parfitt after all?)

I'm resigned to missing the top 8 simply because our missing guns are not necessarily going to star when they return, and in any case will always be prone to injury at this stage of their career - Rohan, Duncan, Danger are cases in point.

Still, losses by the Saints and Dogs this weekend do give a glimmer of hope I suppose.

 

[Munich]

Fumbled a bit last night and sometimes just kicks it too high.

He has always done that though.

 

[catempire]

Bewsy is not that down imho,

Why not quote the real thing? Not that hard.

Your funny bone broken mate?

 

[Turbocat]

Could you please show the player's name in the future? I for one can am confused as i am sure others are.

Some abbreviations like SDK are recognisable, but others are not.

I am sure as usual your post is great besides this

As i was replying to the Cursed Cat post , and CC was commenting on Tanner Bruhn and Mitch Knevitt and having debated players many times with CC ,I thought that CC would know who I was talking about. To be honest I think most of the time that the letter references were decipherable ... just as SDek are. unless the subject is about Jhye Clark and Jez Cameron in the same sentence

however .. its really minial effort to remember your point. ,and I will try to remember to use their name at least once before using initialisation.

 

[catsfootyfan89]

Cameron won our best and fairest last year and for good reason. What a crock this post is

You think his performance last year is more relevant to discuss in relation to our losses over the last three weeks?

I did say in my post that I love the guy. I just think his last month has been very poor. It's a lowlight for a player of his calibre / pay grade. It's emotional and reactionary to call my opinions a 'crock'.

 

[Vdubs]

Your funny bone broken mate?

Yes.
It actually is

 

[Seeds]

Agreed. One of the first picked. His pressure, tacking and chasing is insane. Causes defenders to turn it over and generates scoring opportunities.

If he kicks a goal or two it's a bonus. Occasionally he kicks 3-4 and it's a huge leg-up.

Plays a crucial role and we miss him badly.

While he adds value in this regard lets not insanely overstate this. He averages two tackles a game. Its extremely low. He probably makes a run down tackle once every three games. when he chases defensively it looks amazing cos he is so fast. Its memorable. But he really does not do it all that often. Parfit is more valuable in defensive foward roles then rohan.

 

[Cattery]

The discussion about our injuries and form has been had ad nauseum, and they've been the default reasons for our woes.

But somewhere along the way, laziness infiltrated the playing group. The last 15 minutes of this game showed a) the ability is there, and b) we clearly chose not to invest the effort in the first 3.5 quarters.

It's mental and physical laziness.

Pretty much covers it I reckon.
To be fair though, we've been hit with the perfect storm this year, horrendous injury list, another group not playing up to the standard of last year, and now the icing on the cake, the deadliest boot in the competition has lost his radar, three seven in his last three games.

Bewsy is not that down imho,

Any further down and he'd be in the basement Dubs, with a full squad to choose from him and Close would be in serious jeopardy of losing their spots.

 

[MacStradbroke]

While he adds value in this regard lets not insanely overstate this. He averages two tackles a game. Its extremely low. He probably makes a run down tackle once every three games. when he chases defensively it looks amazing cos he is so fast. Its memorable. But he really does not do it all that often. Parfit is more valuable in defensive foward roles then rohan.

That’s the take of one who looks at the stats sheet, not one who watches the footy.

 

[Seeds]

22 disposals. 6 tackles. Blicavs kept at it all day.

But he was fumbly and hesitant with the pill all game. killed a number of attacking plays with hesitation and fumbly handballs. And 22 is not all the great for a player who plays in the centre square all game.

far from the worst on the ground. He tackles well. But he wasnt great. And whats really problematic is that is the first game all season where he has reached 20 disposals. For a full time mid.

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

(Incidentally, was Narkle a better bet than Parfitt after all?)

Not so far, his coach is Leigh Tudor who's not an AFL coach...

 

[FredLeDeux]

While he adds value in this regard lets not insanely overstate this. He averages two tackles a game. Its extremely low. He probably makes a run down tackle once every three games. when he chases defensively it looks amazing cos he is so fast. Its memorable. But he really does not do it all that often. Parfit is more valuable in defensive foward roles then rohan.

That's gotta be a record, 7 sentences and every single one of them wrong in one way or another

 

[FredLeDeux]

But he was fumbly and hesitant with the pill all game. killed a number of attacking plays with hesitation and fumbly handballs. And 22 is not all the great for a player who plays in the centre square all game.

far from the worst on the ground. He tackles well. But he wasnt great. And whats really problematic is that is the first game all season where he has reached 20 disposals. For a full time mid.

Wrong again, twice

 

[FredLeDeux]

You think his performance last year is more relevant to discuss in relation to our losses over the last three weeks?

I did say in my post that I love the guy. I just think his last month has been very poor. It's a lowlight for a player of his calibre / pay grade. It's emotional and reactionary to call my opinions a 'crock'.

That's just a crock

 

[Vdubs]

Pretty much covers it I reckon.
To be fair though, we've been hit with the perfect storm this year, horrendous injury list, another group not playing up to the standard of last year, and now the icing on the cake, the deadliest boot in the competition has lost his radar, three seven in his last three games.



Any further down and he'd be in the basement Dubs, with a full squad to choose from him and Close would be in serious jeopardy of losing their spots.

We won't have that luxury this year.

 

[catempire]

While he adds value in this regard lets not insanely overstate this. He averages two tackles a game. Its extremely low. He probably makes a run down tackle once every three games. when he chases defensively it looks amazing cos he is so fast. Its memorable. But he really does not do it all that often. Parfit is more valuable in defensive foward roles then rohan.

It has been pointed out to you previously that tackles don't measure the value that Rohan brings in terms of defensive pressure.

 

[Seeds]

That’s the take of one who looks at the stats sheet, not one who watches the footy.

no one watches the footy And remembers it. The human brain does not have that capability.The average football follower can remember 5 percent of plays immediately after the game at best. Your mind makes up the rest.

rohans run down tackles are memorable. As is his chases that cause a poor kick and turnover. But it rarely happens. Your mind is tricking you into thinking it happens far far more then it does cos its memorable and makes up the 5 per cent.

its a mind trick that we all suffer from collectively. Its not reality. Stats however make no such mistakes. They are an imperfect measure of a game but they dont forget 95 percent of it and make up the gap. stats dont lie.

its about time we place far more emphasis on stats rather then our minds which are collectively biased to make stuff up.

 

[gogeelongcats]

As i was replying to the Cursed Cat post , and CC was commenting on Tanner Bruhn and Mitch Knevitt and having debated players many times with CC ,I thought that CC would know who I was talking about. To be honest I think most of the time that the letter references were decipherable ... just as SDek are. unless the subject is about Jhye Clark and Jez Cameron in the same sentence

however .. its really minial effort to remember your point. ,and I will try to remember to use their name at least once before using initialisation.

Great. I enjoy reading your posts.