sr36
TheBrownDog
Nah. They get the bye -two weeks off is disruptive to preparation.
Unofficial Preview Changes & Pre-match Discussion - Qualifying Final vs. Geelong, Sat 03/09, 4:35pm MCG
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Nah. They get the bye -two weeks off is disruptive to preparation.
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I thought I’ll do an analysis on the impact of Adams & De Goey without Grundy (Anzac Day - Round 6).
Since Grundy got injured in round 6, Adams & De Goey have played 9 games together out of 16.
Since the Bye (round 14) Adams and De Goey have only played together against the (16) GCS & (20) Port (Adams played 37%).
Since Round 6-
Adams with JDG has had 39 clearances from 9 games (this includes Adams injury game). Average : 4.33
Adams with JDG has had 16 Center clearances. Average : 1.77
JDG with Adams has had 38 clearances from 9 games. Average: 4.22
JDG with Adams has had 17 Center clearances from 9 games. Average: 1.88.
The above is when they have played together since round 6.
In the games they didn’t play together since round 6.
Adams has played 3 games without JDG. Average clearances : 6.33 & average Center clearances : 3.33
JDG has played 2 games without Adams. Average clearances: 6.5 & average Center clearances: 3.5.
Individually, they perform better when both of them are not playing together.
However, I’ve gone a step further and analysed how the team has performed.
In the games that JDG & Adams played together, we won overall clearances in just 2 out of the 9 games. The games we lost clearances by we lost on an average of 6.6 clearances (3,4,16,5,3,14,8).
We had 2 big losses in clearances (GCS -14 & WBD -16) and both of those games were away from the MCG. GCS at Metricon & WBD at marvel who always smash our midfield.
In the games that JDG & Adams didn’t play together (post Grundy), we won clearances 2 out of 7 games. The wins were against GWS with no ruckman (keeffe & green) and Adelaide’s very young midfield. However, we lost our clearances by an average of 10.83 clearances per game (7,15,22,7,14).
Although JDG & Adams seem to perform better individually (small sample size) without each other. However, when both JDG & Adams are not in the team we lost clearances by an average of an EXTRA 4 clearances.
We should see a significant balancing of the clearance ledger on Saturday. Last time we played the cats, we won clearances (Grundy did play).
Furthermore, in our clearance losses at the mcg, we average a loss of 7.8 per game. Only won 2 against demons on QB & GWS giants. However, in our clearance losses at the MCG without JDG & Adams, we average a loss of 14 per game. WE DOUBLE OUR CLEARANCE LOSS FROM 7 to 14 WHEN JDG & ADAMS DONT PLAY.
I think a good way to summarise all of this is to compare the 2 Carlton games.
In round 11, Carlton had a better midfield (Cripps,Walsh, Hewett, Dow) and we lost clearances by 5 with JDG & Adams playing. However, in round 23 with only JDG playing against Cripps, Cerra, Setterfield and Docherty, we lost clearances by 14.
Adams playing is massive for us! Hopefully he gets through the whole game, we break even in the midfield and our defence can have a breather.
Since Grundy got injured in round 6, Adams & De Goey have played 9 games together out of 16.
Since the Bye (round 14) Adams and De Goey have only played together against the (16) GCS & (20) Port (Adams played 37%).
Since Round 6-
Adams with JDG has had 39 clearances from 9 games (this includes Adams injury game). Average : 4.33
Adams with JDG has had 16 Center clearances. Average : 1.77
JDG with Adams has had 38 clearances from 9 games. Average: 4.22
JDG with Adams has had 17 Center clearances from 9 games. Average: 1.88.
The above is when they have played together since round 6.
In the games they didn’t play together since round 6.
Adams has played 3 games without JDG. Average clearances : 6.33 & average Center clearances : 3.33
JDG has played 2 games without Adams. Average clearances: 6.5 & average Center clearances: 3.5.
Individually, they perform better when both of them are not playing together.
However, I’ve gone a step further and analysed how the team has performed.
In the games that JDG & Adams played together, we won overall clearances in just 2 out of the 9 games. The games we lost clearances by we lost on an average of 6.6 clearances (3,4,16,5,3,14,8).
We had 2 big losses in clearances (GCS -14 & WBD -16) and both of those games were away from the MCG. GCS at Metricon & WBD at marvel who always smash our midfield.
In the games that JDG & Adams didn’t play together (post Grundy), we won clearances 2 out of 7 games. The wins were against GWS with no ruckman (keeffe & green) and Adelaide’s very young midfield. However, we lost our clearances by an average of 10.83 clearances per game (7,15,22,7,14).
Although JDG & Adams seem to perform better individually (small sample size) without each other. However, when both JDG & Adams are not in the team we lost clearances by an average of an EXTRA 4 clearances.
We should see a significant balancing of the clearance ledger on Saturday. Last time we played the cats, we won clearances (Grundy did play).
Furthermore, in our clearance losses at the mcg, we average a loss of 7.8 per game. Only won 2 against demons on QB & GWS giants. However, in our clearance losses at the MCG without JDG & Adams, we average a loss of 14 per game. WE DOUBLE OUR CLEARANCE LOSS FROM 7 to 14 WHEN JDG & ADAMS DONT PLAY.
I think a good way to summarise all of this is to compare the 2 Carlton games.
In round 11, Carlton had a better midfield (Cripps,Walsh, Hewett, Dow) and we lost clearances by 5 with JDG & Adams playing. However, in round 23 with only JDG playing against Cripps, Cerra, Setterfield and Docherty, we lost clearances by 14.
Adams playing is massive for us! Hopefully he gets through the whole game, we break even in the midfield and our defence can have a breather.
Adams works hard all game. Having him in the side continually using his body around stoppages gives us something I don't know if stats easily show. It would be interesting to evaluate how his presence impacts on the Daic's possessions.
Forethought
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I’m hearing Freddy will be our medi sub. Hope we aren’t carrying an injury with one of our talls
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If Kruger comes in, then we are probably disadvantaged this week. But maybe it pays off later in the finals series.
Despite our great season, I don't believe we can go all the way with our current forward line.
With the double chance, I think it is worth rolling the dice and trying to get Kruger match fit and with some form by prelim final day.. if we manage to make it.
It's a gamble, but it's all or nothing from here. Roll em.
Despite our great season, I don't believe we can go all the way with our current forward line.
With the double chance, I think it is worth rolling the dice and trying to get Kruger match fit and with some form by prelim final day.. if we manage to make it.
It's a gamble, but it's all or nothing from here. Roll em.
Forethought
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Really
De Goey has become somewhat of a forgotten forward threat given his greater midfield focus this season.
With Adams returning it wouldn't surprise me if we try and look for more opportunity to use his talents inside f50 tomorrow and present Geelong with another option to concern themselves with.
Statistically they'll have the 3 best forwards on the ground tomorrow so we'll be relying on weight of options to see us through.
With Adams returning it wouldn't surprise me if we try and look for more opportunity to use his talents inside f50 tomorrow and present Geelong with another option to concern themselves with.
Statistically they'll have the 3 best forwards on the ground tomorrow so we'll be relying on weight of options to see us through.
TradeDraft
Post-Human
Collingwood need to beat Geelong as I doubt we can beat Sydney at the SCG in a Preliminary Final
Id rather play Melbourne in a prelim but we were in the game most of the day vs Swans and were without DeGoey and Adams and nothing was going right for us so we can definitely show more next time
BlackNWhiteFreightTrain
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This is what I came here to say. We have even more reason to beat Geelong now. We need to play all our finals at the MCG to have any chance of going all the way.
Gonna be tough to even make a Prelim. If we did tho either Melbourne or Sydney would both be difficult (Brisbane of course also a possibility).
In general play for most of the game, Melbourne were scarier than the Swans. We hung in and then turned it our way. It's easy to see how this could have been a loss of 10+ goals.
The Swans were more stifling, but not dominant through the middle. We still had 22 inside 50s in the last, so did have some success. Add De Goey and Adams and the territory battle may even tip into our favour. Ground unfamiliarity is one problem, we'd definitely prefer to be at the 'G.
I don't think either opponent should be considered unbeatable, but I'd have us as underdogs in either. Swans have proven to be the better team than Melbourne, so we'd be less favoured in that matchup.
In general play for most of the game, Melbourne were scarier than the Swans. We hung in and then turned it our way. It's easy to see how this could have been a loss of 10+ goals.
The Swans were more stifling, but not dominant through the middle. We still had 22 inside 50s in the last, so did have some success. Add De Goey and Adams and the territory battle may even tip into our favour. Ground unfamiliarity is one problem, we'd definitely prefer to be at the 'G.
I don't think either opponent should be considered unbeatable, but I'd have us as underdogs in either. Swans have proven to be the better team than Melbourne, so we'd be less favoured in that matchup.
Kreuger as sub would make sense given Henry was the sub last match. He's the most like for like for Henry.
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