News Charlie Dixon signs for West Broken Hill

[carnthemaggies]

It has long been considered we can't work two forwards at the same time at Port, even when it is tried, dating back to many coaches ago. For whatever reason we simply haven't ever been able to create a 'twin towers' like all other clubs have. Not Choco, Primus, or Ken have been able to get two big forwards performing consistently. Some tried more than others but it never happened.

Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?


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I often wonder whether the best size for a key forward is 193-195 rather than going with the blokes who are 197-200. If you think of the recent elite forwards or combinations most have been the guys the size of tredrea, carey etc. Their strength and mobility is a key feature of their forward play. The really tall forwards - I'm not sure?

 

[MrPlow]

Yes our forward structure is currently non-existent but it's a cop out to soley blame Dixon's form on this.

This is a chart of his goalkicking for the year care of https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

His overall accuracy is 35%. His scoring is 18% below expected league average (which does take into account the difficulty of the shot). In regards to the common argument here that he is forced to run too much and hence is fatigued, note that 4 of his 10 misses occurred in the first 10 mins of each half.

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I really like Dixon, but at some point his poor form rests with him, not with the coaches.

Thank you
This is exactly what I was referring to

 

[edgie]

I often wonder whether the best size for a key forward is 193-195 rather than going with the blokes who are 197-200. If you think of the recent elite forwards or combinations most have been the guys the size of tredrea, carey etc. Their strength and mobility is a key feature of their forward play. The really tall forwards - I'm not sure?

People carry on like the real tall forwards are a new thing, but Paul Salmom was getting about in the 80s.

196 is plenty IF they know how to play forward. I think it's interesting now that tall midfielders are in fashion. I think the best KPP may come from country areas in the future where they are still tall enough for those positions and learn to play them rather than the city areas where tall kids may end up in the middle.


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[El_Scorcho]

Yes our forward structure is currently non-existent but it's a cop out to soley blame Dixon's form on this.

This is a chart of his goalkicking for the year care of https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl/shot-charting

His overall accuracy is 35%. His scoring is 18% below expected league average (which does take into account the difficulty of the shot). In regards to the common argument here that he is forced to run too much and hence is fatigued, note that 4 of his 10 misses occurred in the first 10 mins of each half.

View attachment 718532

I really like Dixon, but at some point his poor form rests with him, not with the coaches.

Lots of high percentage shots generated by the old gameplan on this chart isn't there?

 

[El_Scorcho]

I mean he’s definitely not an accurate forward but hes definitely got a bunch of factors not helping him

And he's definitely not alone in that forward line.

 

[El_Scorcho]

It has long been considered we can't work two forwards at the same time at Port, even when it is tried, dating back to many coaches ago. For whatever reason we simply haven't ever been able to create a 'twin towers' like all other clubs have. Not Choco, Primus, or Ken have been able to get two big forwards performing consistently. Some tried more than others but it never happened.

Is Charlie a guarantee to break that?

The only 2 genuine KPFs that Ken has consistently selected when available throughout his tenure are Schulz and Dixon, who crossed over for about 7 games when Schulz's body was gone.

What's your endgame here though Edgie? What should we be doing differently? Hypothetically should we not have traded for Dixon? Should we trade him now? Is someone else going to do a better job?

 

[Moo87]

This here shows the real issue. No deep entries, no shots closish to goal and no shots from in front other than 50 out. Have a look at the better key forwards like Hawkins at the moment - he gets chances from easy shots as well as hard to kick spots. How do you get some confidence as a big KPF if you never get the ball in any decent spots? Its no wonder he's struggling for confidence.

For comparison, here's the chart for Hawkins over the same time period. Obviously there's a pretty small sample size for all involved.

 

[Schulzenfest]

While it's good that the graph does take expected accuracy into account, it's still not perfect. It's still gonna favour players who get lots of high percentage shots. For example, if Dixon has a low percentage shot at goal with a 'league average' success rate of 18% and he stuffs it, that would still put him at '18% behind league average' for that shot. If you get a high percentage shot with a league average success rate of 82% and you convert it, that puts you 18% above league average.

I mean he’s definitely not an accurate forward but hes definitely got a bunch of factors not helping him

Definitely not an accurate forward now, under Hinkley and Bassett. Again, he was a very accurate forward at the Gold Coast. 41.15 in his last season there.

 

[edgie]

The only 2 genuine KPFs that Ken has consistently selected when available throughout his tenure are Schulz and Dixon, who crossed over for about 7 games when Schulz's body was gone.

What's your endgame here though Edgie? What should we be doing differently? Hypothetically should we not have traded for Dixon? Should we trade him now? Is someone else going to do a better job?

I'm not just talking Ken, I'm talking the history of the club at AFL level. It's a bit of an anomaly, no? When have we ever had say, 120 goals kicked between 2 or 3 big tall targets?

 

[El_Scorcho]

I'm not just talking Ken, I'm talking the history of the club at AFL level. It's a bit of an anomaly, no? When have we ever had say, 120 goals kicked between 2 or 3 big tall targets?

136 between Tredrea, Lade and Thurstans in 2004

121 between Tredrea, Westhoff and Ebert in 2007. I know Ebert was short but he played a key forward style role.

Obviously under Primus we were shit and under Hinkley we've made a concerted effort to not play multiple tall forwards at the same time for any more than a game or two.

 

[Moo87]

Definitely not an accurate forward now, under Hinkley and Bassett. Again, he was a very accurate forward at the Gold Coast. 41.15 in his last season there.

This is a recurrent problem for us. All too often we see a deterioration in goalkicking after being traded or drafted to Ports.

For this season, we are 90 points below our expected score. We only have 3 players going at 50% or above accuracy for the year.

To put this into context, over the season we've had 20 less shots then Geelong, with a difference in overall expected score of 68 points. The actual difference is 262. Whatever training we're doing about goalkicking needs to change.

 

[LFC2010]

A huge pre season under a new coach and he'll prove the knockers wrong.

 

[TeeKray]

Imagine if we gave this many excuses to every other player on the list.

The coach/game plan being shit and the player not performing are not mutually exclusive concepts.

 

[bringbackbucky]

A huge pre season under a new coach and he'll prove the knockers wrong.

Knockers have played a part in his questionable form...

 

[Schulzenfest]

Imagine if we gave this many excuses to every other player on the list.

The coach/game plan being s**t and the player not performing are not mutually exclusive concepts.

It's a hell of a coincidence that every single one of Butcher, Schulz, Eddy, Marshall, Frampton, Watts, Howard, Ryder, Westhoff and Dixon have all been 'players not performing' in a KPF role since Bassett's arrival for the 2016 season, isn't it?

I don't give this many excuses to every player on the list. I do give this many excuses to the KPF's, and I'll continue to do so until Hinkley and/or Bassett are gone.

 

[TeeKray]

It's a hell of a coincidence that every single one of Butcher, Schulz, Eddy, Marshall, Frampton, Watts, Howard, Ryder, Westhoff and Dixon have all been 'players not performing' in a KPF role since Bassett's arrival for the 2016 season, isn't it?

I don't give this many excuses to every player on the list. I do give this many excuses to the KPF's, and I'll continue to do so until Hinkley and/or Bassett are gone.

Schulz was physically cooked by 2016.

Watts, Ryder and Westhoff had proven to be incapable of playing as key forwards before they were coached by Hinkley.

Butcher, Eddy, Frampton, Marshall and Howard have not been afforded sufficient opportunity to really know.

Dixon has shown he can play. Nobody doubts that. But can he perform consistently in what is one of the most important positions in the team? Some of his failings are coaching, but some of it is squarely on him.

 

[edgie]

136 between Tredrea, Lade and Thurstans in 2004

121 between Tredrea, Westhoff and Ebert in 2007. I know Ebert was short but he played a key forward style role.

Obviously under Primus we were s**t and under Hinkley we've made a concerted effort to not play multiple tall forwards at the same time for any more than a game or two.

Twice in over 2 seasons doesn't scream consistency to me.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Twice in over 2 seasons doesn't scream consistency to me.

Not at all, but 120 goals across 2-3 KPFs is a pretty big ask even for a good side. It's not like that's something teams are achieving on a regular basis.

Especially when we simply haven't played developing forwards much at all over the last 7 years, and we don't play a high scoring style.

If we want dominant KPFs, we'll either need to actually play them so they develop, or pay through the nose for KPFs that other teams develop.

 

[GoPorts]

136 between Tredrea, Lade and Thurstans in 2004

121 between Tredrea, Westhoff and Ebert in 2007. I know Ebert was short but he played a key forward style role.

Obviously under Primus we were s**t and under Hinkley we've made a concerted effort to not play multiple tall forwards at the same time for any more than a game or two.

Other than one game those two years worked out pretty well for us. Whodathunk??

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[edgie]

Not at all, but 120 goals across 2-3 KPFs is a pretty big ask even for a good side. It's not like that's something teams are achieving on a regular basis.

I don't think it is that big an ask at all, I reckon more often than not teams in the top 4 would be achieving it, at least in the early parts of the century. 100 between 2 or 120 between 3.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I don't think it is that big an ask at all, I reckon more often than not teams in the top 4 would be achieving it, at least in the early parts of the century. 100 between 2 or 120 between 3.

The early parts of the century you still had KPFs kicking tons.

How many teams over the past 3 years have had 100 between 2 or 120 between 3?

 

[El_Scorcho]

GWS 2019, Adelaide 2017, Hawthorn 2015?

Any others?

 

[edgie]

GWS 2019, Adelaide 2017, Hawthorn 2015?

Any others?

West Coast 15, 16, 17, most likely 19.

Crows 15, 16.

Giants 16, 17.

Richmond 18.

Sydney 15, 17.

Brb need to do some work now.

 

[El_Scorcho]

West Coast 15, 16, 17, most likely 19.

Crows 15, 16.

Giants 16, 17.

Richmond 18.

Sydney 15, 17.

Brb need to do some work now.

Richmond didn't in 2018.

Sydney didn't in 2015.

GWS didn't in 2017.

So we have

West Coast 15, 16, 17, 19
Adelaide 15, 16, 17
GWS 16, 19
Sydney 17
Hawthorn 15.

So that's 11 instances over 18 teams across 5 years of the modern era or 12.2% of the time in the modern era, just over 2 teams a year.

And looking at the list, the only team that has managed it without a future Hall of Famer in their KPF lineup is Adelaide.

So it's definitely not something that is a trivial achievement, and certainly not something we could even dream of achieving given the attitude of the current head coach towards fostering high level KPF performance.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Dixon has shown he can play. Nobody doubts that. But can he perform consistently in what is one of the most important positions in the team? Some of his failings are coaching, but some of it is squarely on him.

Some of it is, but would we expect him to be more confident in a better system? We're talking about a system where nobody has played consistently well forward apart from Robbie Gray.

Charlie Dixon would be quite capable of kicking 50 goals a year if fit, with adequate support, in a system that advantages him.