Speculation Christian Petracca [UFA 2029]

[JayJ20]

It has to be Essendon, right?

Both Carlton and Collingwood struggle to commit to this, i think. Both would have to give up core pieces and are already too thin, and may just not feel the time is right to go all in. Can Carlton give up McKay AND picks on the gamble that it makes them good enough now? Hmmm... i think it is just too much

But Essendon? They fit for a heap of reasons.

First, they have the pieces. Their list is deep and has everything in multiples, but not nearly enough star power. As a result, i think they can overwhelm any competing offer.

Melbourne want to blow it up and rebuild? How about either a young forward (Caddy? Jones?), a midfielder (Perkins? Hobbs?), a ruck (Bryan) and two first round picks?

Melbourne want to stay as competitive as possible? How about we go with Stringer, Parish, Redman and two first round picks that they can either keep or trade elsewhere for more veterans.

Not happy with the specific players there? Swap with any of half a dozen. Regardless, there's a package for Melbourne that kickstarts whatever their plan is to get out of their current mess.

And Essendon? That looks a lot to give up but they have a heap of duplication on their list. Up forward, for example, they have Wright, Stringer, Langford, Caddy, Jones, and Weideman available for two, maybe three spots in the team. Same all over the ground - Dodoro's legacy is a list clogged with a total imbalqnce between promising youngsters and good veterans. But it means they can go all in on a trade at some point and not miss a beat.

And this is a club that will hit 8000 days since its last finals win if it doesn't get there next year, yet who look firmly entrenched in 9th-12th. Who are they leapfrogging with this list? Arguably others go past them - Adelaide will bounce back, so will St Kilda, etc.

Petracca immediately becomes their biggest star since Hird, a perfect complement to Merrett and someone you could actually see dragging them to some success.

According to reports, Essendon isn't interested in Petracca and Petracca isn't interested in Essendon. We're certainly the best option for Melbourne to satisfy their demands and he would make us better in the short-term, but what he wants and what we want doesn't mesh well.

If he was 3-4 years younger then absolutely, but we can't be selling our future for a guy that's turning 29 coming from a serious injury knowing that we're not close to a premiership. After the Shiel trade, Essendon know they'll receive serious backlash from fans if they trade for him and it doesn't bring us any success. The nature of his injury is a risk we cannot afford to take.

We really need to be trading out some of our senior players for picks so we can rejuvenate the list, then make a serious play for Harley Reid in the next couple of years to be that marquee player.

If Petracca wants fame, then Essendon makes sense because he only needs to win a final to reach Hird-like status. But he wants a premiership and we likely won't be able to give him that in his career. I don't believe he will make us premiership contenders.

 

[Mich0]

lol @ people complaining about his contract.

If you don’t pay your best player a good sum who the **** else you going to pay it to instead? Bloke was rated 4th in the league in champion data for the year up until his injury.

“Nah let’s pay some VFL bloke more instead with the cash we save”.

Cap is there for your best players. Pretty dumb take.

 

[SuburbanMe]

Don't think anyone pegged us

No-one has ever Pegged me, that much I can assure you of.

 

[Sammy1992]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2024/03/31/former-dees-doctor-turned-whistleblower-defends-afls-drugs-policy-reveals-reason-for-going-public-with-bombshell-claims/amp/

This story at the start of the year supports this Petracca mess atm. Goodwin is a flog who is ruining the club.

 

[Yummy5454]

Yeah but it's not like they're bottoming out. They have a decent list building they just lack star power. Trac could help change their fortunes. Maybe he doesn't want that pressure? Seems weird to me.

There’s no significant difference in list quality from Melbourne to Essendon. Essendon’s problem isn’t a lack of star power, it’s a lack of culture / belief / mental fortitude

Petracca doesn’t want to be the saviour anymore. He wants to be surrounded by equally committed, quality players on a bona fide contender i.e Carlton

 

[EBERT THE KING]

If Essendon werent such a basket case something like this ticks a lot of boxes:

Melbourne give: Christian Petracca

5

Christian Petracca

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.5

3star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.4

4star

D

19.0

5star

K

7.8

3star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.0

4star

Melbourne get: Pick 2, Pick 8, Will Phillips

North Melbourne give: Pick 2, Will Phillips
North Melbourne get: Nate Caddy, Pick 28

Essendon give: Nate Caddy, Pick 8, Pick 28
Essendon get: Christian Petracca

5

Christian Petracca

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.5

3star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.4

4star

D

19.0

5star

K

7.8

3star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.0

4star

 

[Stamos]

lol @ people complaining about his contract.

If you don’t pay your best player a good sum who the **** else you going to pay it to instead? Bloke was rated 4th in the league in champion data for the year up until his injury.

“Nah let’s pay some VFL bloke more instead with the cash we save”.

Cap is there for your best players. Pretty dumb take.

He signed his contract 3 and a half years ago when he was 25.

Anybody taking on his contract is getting a 29 year old recovering from a traumatic injury.
So you would be getting the worst years of his contract without getting the 2 best years. That's if he recovers fully and gets back to his best.

Edit: typo, the contract was signed 3 and a half years ago, not 2

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The issue with getting this across the line is the AFLPA stance on not trading contracts. The player being traded out will have to agree to the deal, there is no incentive for any top line player that Melbourne will demand to change clubs and move to a ‘toxic’ culture, especially when it’s within the same state and can’t even use the go home factor as leverage.

So will be basically left with draft picks and uncontracted players.

Would Carlton’s 24 1st, 2nd & 25 1st get it done? Unlikely but that’s prob about as good as we are capable of offering, could throw in Matt Owies or OOC in 25 players like Kennedy or Hewett but those are not likely to shift the needle

 

[Bagger72]

If we are going to give all that trade capital away may as well give it to WCE for Harley Reid not a 29 y.o.

Reid can learn off Crippa for 3-5 years.

 

[Bluelegs]

If we are going to give all that trade capital away may as well give it to WCE for Harley Reid not a 29 y.o.

Reid can learn off Crippa for 3-5 years.

We couldn't get that deal over the line before he'd even been drafted. Carlton aren't going to do it with worse picks now that he's proven he can play at the level.

 

[JayJ20]

If Essendon werent such a basket case something like this ticks a lot of boxes:

Melbourne give: Christian Petracca
Melbourne get: Pick 2, Pick 8, Will Phillips

North Melbourne give: Pick 2, Will Phillips
North Melbourne get: Nate Caddy, Pick 28

Essendon give: Nate Caddy, Pick 8, Pick 28
Essendon get: Christian Petracca

We'd be even more of a basket case if we did that trade. We may as well fold the club if we trade Nate Caddy and pick 8 for a 29 y/o.

I'd have done Parish, Wright and Cox/Jones for Petracca because Bryan, Wright, Caddy, Jones, Cox and Draper cannot all fit in the one side. Perhaps Stringer instead of Cox/Jones. This is provided they want to continue chasing a premiership.

If they want to use Petracca to rebuild, then we're out of it because we need to bring in good young players. If I'm honest, I'd prefer trading Parish for draft picks more than Petracca.

 

[JayJ20]

If we are going to give all that trade capital away may as well give it to WCE for Harley Reid not a 29 y.o.

Reid can learn off Crippa for 3-5 years.

Yeah if we want a marquee player, I'd much prefer throwing the cash and picks at Harley Reid.

 

[stallon]

If we are going to give all that trade capital away may as well give it to WCE for Harley Reid not a 29 y.o.

Reid can learn off Crippa for 3-5 years.

Difference is Reid isnt gettable

 

[boncer34]

If Essendon werent such a basket case something like this ticks a lot of boxes:

Melbourne give: Christian Petracca
Melbourne get: Pick 2, Pick 8, Will Phillips

North Melbourne give: Pick 2, Will Phillips
North Melbourne get: Nate Caddy, Pick 28

Essendon give: Nate Caddy, Pick 8, Pick 28
Essendon get: Christian Petracca

Hahahahaha

No.

 

[Bagger72]

Difference is Reid isnt gettable

He shouldn't be either - but for that type of trade capital thats the only type of player you would target

 

[DesertRoo]

If Essendon werent such a basket case something like this ticks a lot of boxes:

Melbourne give: Christian Petracca
Melbourne get: Pick 2, Pick 8, Will Phillips

North Melbourne give: Pick 2, Will Phillips
North Melbourne get: Nate Caddy, Pick 28

Essendon give: Nate Caddy, Pick 8, Pick 28
Essendon get: Christian Petracca

We’re not giving a leg up to ****ing Essendon…
Essentially you want us to trade pick 2 for Caddy to help them..

 

[boncer34]

He signed his contract 2 and a half years ago when he was 25.

Anybody taking on his contract is getting a 29 year old recovering from a traumatic injury.
So you would be getting the worst years of his contract without getting the 2 best years. That's if he recovers fully and gets back to his best.

Maths ain't my strong point but how does he go from 25 to 29 in 2 and a half years?

 

[EBERT THE KING]

We’re not giving a leg up to ****ing Essendon…
Essentially you want us to trade pick 2 for Caddy to help them..

No, you trade pick 2 for Nate Caddy.

Who cares what Essendon do with it.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

Hahahahaha

No.

You brought in 4 recruits last year. You clearly think you are in the window.

This gets you serious.

 

[Scythe94]

Maths ain't my strong point but how does he go from 25 to 29 in 2 and a half years?

That's easy. He's 28 – though his age depends on whether the individual poster's club is looking at trading him in or not.

 

[Stamos]

Maths ain't my strong point but how does he go from 25 to 29 in 2 and a half years?

Typo, 3 and a half years ago.

 

[FootyGuru]

lol @ people complaining about his contract.

If you don’t pay your best player a good sum who the **** else you going to pay it to instead? Bloke was rated 4th in the league in champion data for the year up until his injury.

“Nah let’s pay some VFL bloke more instead with the cash we save”.

Cap is there for your best players. Pretty dumb take.

You said it. Up until injury.

 

[Vankri]

The issue with getting this across the line is the AFLPA stance on not trading contracts. The player being traded out will have to agree to the deal, there is no incentive for any top line player that Melbourne will demand to change clubs and move to a ‘toxic’ culture, especially when it’s within the same state and can’t even use the go home factor as leverage.

So will be basically left with draft picks and uncontracted players.

Would Carlton’s 24 1st, 2nd & 25 1st get it done? Unlikely but that’s prob about as good as we are capable of offering, could throw in Matt Owies or OOC in 25 players like Kennedy or Hewett but those are not likely to shift the needle

Two first and a second? I think that should get it done. After much customary posturing and back and fourth from the Dees of course. But after applying the age discount, ‘disgruntled player’ discount, ‘disgruntled playing group if he stays’ discount and ‘recent major injury’ discount, I don’t think it’s an unfair trade.

The question is can Carlton really fit his 5y 1.2m+ contract in the cap without trading one of their 1m+ players (and without brown paper bags)? I always assumed that the reason Carlton’s bottom 6 players on the ground are poorer than most teams’ is because their top liners have taken such a huge chunk of the cap that depth quality has dropped (not many teams with two 1m+ forwards running around and add Cripps, Weitering, Walsh and recent recruits to top it up).

 

[manureid]

I would have very big concerns paying up big for him after that injury and the mental toll it had on him. Could come back good as gold, but it is a big risk.

 

[Skipper_]

You brought in 4 recruits last year. You clearly think you are in the window.

This gets you serious.

The key here is we didn't give up any draft or player capital to bring any of them in.

There is no way we give up arguably our most prized young talent in Caddy and it's unlikely we part with our first this year.