List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion

[VinnieB]

While I can understand the rationale of why so many people believe we must take a KPP with our 1st round selection, for mine the landscape has changed enough since the start of our season that we might be better served rethinking that position.

The most critical aspect that has changed is we'll no longer likely be making a selection within the top 10 which would have been unthinkable to most before the season began. While a decent KP prospect could still be on offer later in the first round if that player is the 4th or 5th best KP prospect on our draft board should we take him if another non KP prospect is rated much higher overall by us?

Another area to consider is just how strong the pool of KP prospects really are this year.

All the talk was this years draft included a bumper crop of KPP but looking at the latest round of power rankings by Chris Doerre aka Knightmare sees only 2 such players within his top 10 (@9,10) and another 2/3 within his top 20.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Phillipou strengthens claim for No. 1 pick

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of July with Mattaes Phillipou once again sitting on top of the pile.

www.espn.com.au

Another question to ponder is whether with our rapid rise this season we'd be better off retaining both De Goey and Grundy and using this seasons 1st round selection as part of any trade currency required for an established player like Taranto. This is of course assuming we can afford Taranto should both players above be retained. I would imagine we would need to forget about McStay under this scenario and most would be happy with that outcome at present.

Taranto is two years younger than Jordan, is more a pure midfield option and doesn't carry the same off field baggage. On the flip side he doesn't have the same capacity as Jordan to be moved forward and influence a game off his own boot either. Personally I see losing De Goey and gaining Taranto as a net zero gain and would prefer they come together in our midfield. Comparing their 2022 seasons and De Goey is actually ahead when it comes to our hot topic of the moment, clearances.

Jordan De Goey and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison

Jordan De Goey and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

As for Grundy I feel we should remember he's the only dual AA on our list outside of Pendlebury so we shouldn't be to flippant when discussing his future. At his best players of his talent aren't so easy to come by.

Yes we all hope he can get back to his form of 2018/19 and yes if he can't we wish he was on less money but I'm still drawn to the fact he's had barely any opportunity to play under our new coach and system as yet. He still remains the best pure ruck option on our list.

For mine we should only entertain trading Grundy if the currency gained went towards landing a really big KP fish yet unknown and not for the arrival of a Taranto and McStay combination.

If we can utilise our 3x 3rd picks to get higher in the order, we should be able to pick up a KP in the second round

 

[Silky23]

Crouch in 2022 averages 27.5 possessions, and ranks elite for effective disposals, whilst averaging nearly 10 contested possessions, 4.5 clearances, 5.3 SI’s and 17 pressure acts per game which only needs to be lifted a tick to be above average as a midfielder. That’s in a midfield with Laird and Keays getting 40 every week.

His career average is 28 touches, 11 CP’s, 5 clearances and 6 SI’s a game. As much as his defensive work may be streaky, he is quality and is the grunt to feed your outside runners such as the Daicos brothers.

There is no way we can turn down looking into him considering how dire our inside midfield stocks are. And his age is perfect for our profile.

 

[AmericanMustard]

Matt Crouch

5

Matt Crouch

Age

29

Ht

183cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

28.4

5star

K

12.0

4star

HB

16.4

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

4.8

5star

D

24.9

5star

K

9.7

4star

HB

15.1

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

4.4

5star

D

21.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

2.0

4star

skill set doesn’t suit modern AFL which is why he can’t get a game at the club with the worst list in the AFL. Hard pass

 

[Apex36]

I'm a bit lairy about him. But then I think of guys like Keays, Brodie, Kennedy who were written off so maybe I need to be open-minded. One red flag for me though is he didn't want to leave SA before his last contract so I wonder if Melbourne is an environment he'll be happy in.

I reckon he’ll be fine coming to Melbourne if it extends his career, particularly given his brother is already here.

 

[Apex36]

An expensive upgrade…he accumulates the ball and does nothing with it. We need to think about cap space, he ain’t going to come cheap.

How expensive do you expect a player who’s been shown the door by his club while he’s under contract to be? No club is going to offer him big money, it’s going to be a “we’ll give you a chance” offer wherever he goes at this point.

 

[gouki88]

Crouch in 2022 averages 27.5 possessions, and ranks elite for effective disposals, whilst averaging nearly 10 contested possessions, 4.5 clearances, 5.3 SI’s and 17 pressure acts per game which only needs to be lifted a tick to be above average as a midfielder. That’s in a midfield with Laird and Keays getting 40 every week.

His career average is 28 touches, 11 CP’s, 5 clearances and 6 SI’s a game. As much as his defensive work may be streaky, he is quality and is the grunt to feed your outside runners such as the Daicos brothers.

There is no way we can turn down looking into him considering how dire our inside midfield stocks are. And his age is perfect for our profile.

10-11 contested possessions from 27-28 touches is really not impressive at all if you're looking for an inside midfielder. Around 37% of his touches are contested possessions. That's similar to Pendlebury (36%, despite playing a variety of roles) and Lipinski (34%) this season.

Not grunt.

 

[unplugged]

I wish we could trade Grundy for Ollie Wines. Having a down year after heart issues, but will probably kill us on Saturday.

 

[JuniorB]

Would be happy for us to grab him on the cheap. At worst he’s an upgrade on Callum Brown, at best he rejuvenates his career in a new environment and improves us in clearances.

The examples of Jarryd Lyons & Will Brodie show it's possible for a player to do well with a change of clubs.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

How expensive do you expect a player who’s been shown the door by his club while he’s under contract to be? No club is going to offer him big money, it’s going to be a “we’ll give you a chance” offer wherever he goes at this point.

He's not out of contract though - you'd have to hope Adelaide pick up the majority of the tab for next year.

 

[brockbruiser]

Crouch or Fiorini would be great pick ups given our need for an inside mid. Their type isn't valued as much any more, so you'd be wanting to get one cheap if possible.

 

[MyManLynch]

He's not out of contract though - you'd have to hope Adelaide pick up the majority of the tab for next year.

Doubtful…think Adelaide will simply trade for peanuts…salary goes with him.

 

[What is a cakewalk]

Just realising that jack bowes

12

Jack Bowes

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.3

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

18.0

4star

K

11.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.1

2star

MG

318.1

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

has played 6 games in the vfl this year. Was coming off an injury but if he's out of favour I'd gladly take him off gold coasts hands. Is a goldy local though i believe so he may not be keen to leave.

 

[Quicky]

Just realising that jack bowes has played 6 games in the vfl this year. Was coming off an injury but if he's out of favour I'd gladly take him off gold coasts hands. Is a goldy local though i believe so he may not be keen to leave.

Could be a guy to release Maynard into midfield.

 

[Apex36]

He's not out of contract though - you'd have to hope Adelaide pick up the majority of the tab for next year.

With 1 year left on his contract you could easily smooth over payments in a 2-3 year deal. Only really necessary for a club to pick up the tab if they are on an excessive deal for multiple years.

 

[What is a cakewalk]

Could be a guy to release Maynard into midfield.

Or naicos. Or add to rotation himself, have seen him play some decent midfield games. Torched our vfl midfield earlier this year. Just too good to be playing 2s.

 

[Carlthetruth]

Yes

Crouch in 2022 averages 27.5 possessions, and ranks elite for effective disposals, whilst averaging nearly 10 contested possessions, 4.5 clearances, 5.3 SI’s and 17 pressure acts per game which only needs to be lifted a tick to be above average as a midfielder. That’s in a midfield with Laird and Keays getting 40 every week.
the
His career average is 28 touches, 11 CP’s, 5 clearances and 6 SI’s a game. As much as his defensive work may be streaky, he is quality and is the grunt to feed your outside runners such as the Daicos brothers.

There is no way we can turn down looking into him considering how dire our inside midfield stocks are. And his age is perfect for our profile.

Yes we can, whilst he is hunting the footy the back six is exposed because the dude can't run or shut down, completely ignores the defensive side of the game.

 

[Carlthetruth]

While I can understand the rationale of why so many people believe we must take a KPP with our 1st round selection, for mine the landscape has changed enough since the start of our season that we might be better served rethinking that position.

The most critical aspect that has changed is we'll no longer likely be making a selection within the top 10 which would have been unthinkable to most before the season began. While a decent KP prospect could still be on offer later in the first round if that player is the 4th or 5th best KP prospect on our draft board should we take him if another non KP prospect is rated much higher overall by us?

Another area to consider is just how strong the pool of KP prospects really are this year.

All the talk was this years draft included a bumper crop of KPP but looking at the latest round of power rankings by Chris Doerre aka Knightmare sees only 2 such players within his top 10 (@9,10) and another 2/3 within his top 20.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: Phillipou strengthens claim for No. 1 pick

ESPN.com.au's draft expert Chris Doerre has revealed his AFL Draft Power Rankings for the month of July with Mattaes Phillipou once again sitting on top of the pile.

www.espn.com.au

Another question to ponder is whether with our rapid rise this season we'd be better off retaining both De Goey and Grundy and using this seasons 1st round selection as part of any trade currency required for an established player like Taranto. This is of course assuming we can afford Taranto should both players above be retained. I would imagine we would need to forget about McStay under this scenario and most would be happy with that outcome at present.

Taranto is two years younger than Jordan, is more a pure midfield option and doesn't carry the same off field baggage. On the flip side he doesn't have the same capacity as Jordan to be moved forward and influence a game off his own boot either. Personally I see losing De Goey and gaining Taranto as a net zero gain and would prefer they come together in our midfield. Comparing their 2022 seasons and De Goey is actually ahead when it comes to our hot topic of the moment, clearances.

Jordan De Goey and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison

Jordan De Goey and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

As for Grundy I feel we should remember he's the only dual AA on our list outside of Pendlebury so we shouldn't be to flippant when discussing his future. At his best players of his talent aren't so easy to come by.

Yes we all hope he can get back to his form of 2018/19 and yes if he can't we wish he was on less money but I'm still drawn to the fact he's had barely any opportunity to play under our new coach and system as yet. He still remains the best pure ruck option on our list.

For mine we should only entertain trading Grundy if the currency gained went towards landing a really big KP fish yet unknown and not for the arrival of a Taranto and McStay combination.

Tom Scully at 4 is absurd and Phillipou at 1 simply ridiculous. Rather than sticking with these assessments I predict Mare will fall into line with some of the better draft judges as draft day approaches.

 

[Juan Ide]

To be very clear this is a conversation refuting McRae’s comments we were a top 4 centre clearance team with Grundy as the number 1 not a Cameron/ Cox v Grundy discussion. I personally think we’re marginally better off with Grundy in the centre, but I prefer the around the ground aerial ability of the other two.

To address your post yeah obviously they’re rucking a lot v the no 1, but the overlap is important because most ruckman (if not all) don’t ruck for as long as Grundy. When making a comparison with guys that ruck in the mid 60’s Grundy might end up spending 15% of a match with a favourable matchup (earlier this year we tried to exploit that) whereas the better of the Cameron/ Cox pair could go a whole match without coming up against the number 2 ruck with how their responsibilities are split. Me I’d personally want Cox v the number 2 permanently with the current setup. In terms of the inverse argument no that means there’s less opportunity for them to win the total clearances Grundy does.

Hand on heart I don’t remember Cox ever winning a Grundy type clearance and considering Grundy was winning 13% when in the team that makes up a big majority in the drop in clearance numbers. I don’t think Cameron wins as many as Grundy, but across a 6 week block of both rucking 84% with the same quality of opponent Grundy faced he’d get 3-4 v Grundy’s 4-5, IMO. The added benefit is that with more time as the number 1 Cameron builds the connection with his ground level players that Grundy’s had 8 years to work on.

Considering the thread of the discussion how about you present something to support McRae’s view if you feel so strongly? Out of curiosity in Grundy’s ten years have you ever felt we’ve been a good clearance team let alone top 4 centre clearance?

Sorry but I simply don't have the time to answer all the valid questions you raise but I better appreciate the thrust of your arguments now; thanks.

The one piece of data I was able to get my hands on that may shed some light on my opinion comes from an ESPN article a couple of weeks ago. The salient information from that is reproduced below.

Collingwood with Grundy (Rounds 1-6)

Hit outs differential: +5.2 (ranked sixth in the AFL)
Clearance differential: -2.5 (13th)
Score from clearance differential: +3.5 points (eighth)

Collingwood without Grundy (Rounds 7-15)

Hit outs differential: -3.9 (11th)
Clearance differential: -1.8 (12th)
Score from clearance differential: -5.0 (14th)

Would be interested in your thoughts...

 

[lenny20]

Just saw that Crouch was only 22 years old when he won an AA and a B&F in a grand final side.

Insane how much the wheels have fallen off since then.

It’s probably wishful thinking, but if anyone could turn around his fortunes, I’d back in our development team. The form of Noble, Murphy, Jaicos & Naicos, Johnson, Carmichael, Bianco, IQ, McCreery, Ginnivan and DC (plus the surprise uptick in performances from old dogs Sidebum and Cox) seems to suggest our coaching staff are focusing heavily on player development.

And how glorious it is!

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

We need a hail mary trade at full back. I’d pass one of our third round selections to Adelaide for Fischer McAsey, pick 6 from 2019 who might click in a new system. He’s been pretty atrocious in his 3 seasons, but he’s young enough to be rescued

Know where you're coming from....but for me, Begg is the defensive post we need to develop.
Won't ever dominate the ruck and will only ever play second fiddle to the big guys.

So i'd be moving him to FB in the pre-season to see if he can play the Roughhead style lock down role next year.

 

[manicpie]

Tom Scully at 4 is absurd and Phillipou at 1 simply ridiculous. Rather than sticking with these assessments I predict Mare will fall into line with some of the better draft judges as draft day approaches.

Scully is at 17 not 4. Even that is too high for Scully. I can understand why Phillipou is rated so highly, he can do it all, pendles like in his movement and has very strong hands as well as plenty of pace. I can see Phillipou going top 3

 

[gouki88]

Scully is at 17 not 4. Even that is too high for Scully. I can understand why Phillipou is rated so highly, he can do it all, pendles like in his movement and has very strong hands as well as plenty of pace. I can see Phillipou going top 3

Tom Scully was at 4 in the ESPN June Power Rankings, which is what I think is being referred to.

Phillipou is really, really good. Been watching some of his stuff. I also think Knightmare likes the fact that he's so young

 

[manicpie]

Tom Scully was at 4 in the ESPN June Power Rankings, which is what I think is being referred to.

Phillipou is really, really good. Been watching some of his stuff. I also think Knightmare likes the fact that he's so young

I think Adelaide would be drooling over him for their first pick.

 

[Quicky]

Know where you're coming from....but for me, Begg is the defensive post we need to develop.
Won't ever dominate the ruck and will only ever play second fiddle to the big guys.

So i'd be moving him to FB in the pre-season to see if he can play the Roughhead style lock down role next year.

100% this!

 

[Do_Beta_Rapport]

Matt Crouch skill set doesn’t suit modern AFL which is why he can’t get a game at the club with the worst list in the AFL. Hard pass

people said the same thing about Poida Wright re not getting a game in a crap side.

Just sayin