List Mgmt. Collingwood Trade and FA

[JLC]

If this board is correct, and he does come to us, he's a chance of becoming the first ever hopeless 200 game player.

Lol 'game of his life'

Yet the real star of the video is McDonald lol

 

[Scodog10]

If they acquired both they’d give great rebound and legspeed off half back.

Personnel isn’t their issue. If anything they have too much talent. The only thing worse than not getting the results with the talent they have is not getting the results and missing on academy players. They have 10 in the future stars match!

 

[manicpie]

Chris Scott was praising the development coaches at Geelong on AFL360 a few nights back when quizzed on this.
Let’s poach some of them.

I don't think we've spent enough on developing players lately. I believe we are fixing that by getting some dude that I can't remember who, lol, but he used to be at our club

 

[sr36]

Lol 'game of his life'

Yet the real star of the video is McDonald lol

I'm not talking about the video. Didn't watch it.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

I don't think we've spent enough on developing players lately. I believe we are fixing that by getting some dude that I can't remember who, lol, but he used to be at our club

Matthew Boyd is coming back as an assistant coach, in defence you would think.

There were reports we are interested in Travis Boak as Development coach if he decides to retire.

 

[Scodog10]

Not that this disproves the argument that picks 11-20 are a lottery, however here are the Pick 12s in the past few years:

2015: C Curnow
2016: J. Simpkin
2017: D. Fogarty
2018: Z. Butters
2019: K Pickett
2020: T Bruhn
2021: J Sinn
2022: J Fletcher
2023: P Gothard (have to admit I have no idea who this is)

And in earlier years (yes, I am cherry picking I know)
2011: S Docherty
2007: C Rioli
2006: J Frawley
2005: N Jones
2003: R Murphy
2002: J Schulz
2001: B Reilly
2000: S Burgoyne

Not that bad a Pick to take into the national draft

It’s not going to be 12. It’ll be at least 14 and potentially as late as 17 depending on the Battle FA compensation and Marshall/ Kaku bids.

I tend to agree, I think its very unlikely. Any trade for Houston would depend on what we can salvage out of the Noble trade and then an even bigger IF on whether the club are prepared to torpedo all of our draft capital to get the deal done.

Here is the scenario and package that would put us in the frame for Houston:
J.Noble + 2025 R1 + 2025 R3 > Pick 12 & Pick 20
Pick 12 & Pick 20 > D.Houston

Macrae's comments are interesting around wanting players over picks. Make no mistake, Houston is a star. He would come to the club as the third best player on our list IMO.

If this was to eventuate, they must have really high hopes for Maguane as an A-grade talent.

Not possible without first bringing in a future 3rd.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Meh, if Ben McKay is on a heavily front-ended contract that sees him earn $1.5 million for a couple of years then Perryman is 100% worth $850k a year.


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The 850K is similar to McStays contract.

 

[Vankri]

How is it that posters still don’t get how good Houston is?!

He is better than everyone on our list except Naicos. Better than JDG. Better than Jaicos. Better than Moore. We haven’t drafted a guy in the open draft this good since Grundy and no pick 14 or 15 does not get an amazing talent more often than not. One year it might get you Adam Simpson and the next maybe James Sellar it’s a lottery by that stage of the draft.

Bewildering!

Houston is arguably the best kick in the game (certainly kicking out of defence) but apparently we don’t need him because we’ve got 5-gamer Parker and 0-gamer DeMattia coming into our backline mix.

 

[PiesHateU2]

One pick number can throw up anomalies in terms of success or failure.

Do the maths on it. Most of the best players in the game are between 22 and 32 - some outliers like Nick and Zorko.

But that's 10 years of draft picks. 50 blokes in that range who were top 5 picks, 50 from 6-10, 50 from 11-15.

So if the drafts were perfectly ordered, you'd need a top 5 picks to get a player like Houston who is a top 50 player in the comp. But they're not perfectly ordered, there are hits and misses all through the draft - meaning not even a top 5 pick will average a top 50 player in the comp.

Agree with the math. And I would concede, if we particularly take into account our first round drafting history, maybe we would be better off trading it for an established player.

I've always felt that the Pies haven't made great decisions in the first round, but hadn't looked at the data, so I went and looked at our track record in the past 24 years (yes, got a bit obsessed). It does not look flattering especially outside top 10 picks, F/S and NGA. I look at 2012 (ex Grundy), 2013 and 2020 in particular as big failures.

For whoever is interested (otherwise please feel free to ignore):

2000: Pick 3, Alan Didak (PASS, TOP 10)
2001: Pick 11, Richard Cole (FAIL)
2002:
2003: Pick 17, Billy Morrison (FAIL)
2004: Pick 10, Chris Egan (FAIL)
2005: Pick 2 Daisy Thomas (PASS, TOP 10) and Pick 5 Scott Pendlebury (PASS, TOP 10)
2006: Pick 8 Ben Reid (PASS, TOP 10) and Pick 10 Nathan Brown (PASS, TOP 10)
2007:
2008: Pick 11 Sidebottom (PASS)
2009:
2010:
2011:
2012: pick 18 Brody Grundy (PASS), 19 Ben Kennedy (FAIL), 20 Tim Broomhead (FAIL)
2013: pick 6 Matthew Scharenberg (FAIL), pick 10 Nathan Freeman (FAIL)
2014: pick 5 Jordy De Goey (PASS, TOP 10), pick 9 Darcy Moore (PASS, F/S)
2015:
2016:
2017: pick 6 Jaidyn Stephenson (other than the first year, FAIL)
2018: pick 13 Isaac Quaynor (PASS, NGA)
2019:
2020: pick 17 Ollie Henry (FAIL - but likely ends up a pretty good player for Geelong), 19 Fin Macrae (FAIL), 23 Reef McInnes (FAIL)
2021: pick 4 Nick Daicos (PASS, TOP 10 AND F/S)
2022: pick 19 Ed Allan (?)
2023: pick 25 Harry De Mattia (?)

 

[Ugene41]

Bewildering!

Houston is arguably the best kick in the game (certainly kicking out of defence) but apparently we don’t need him because we’ve got 5-gamer Parker and 0-gamer DeMattia coming into our backline mix.

No one is saying we don't need him. It's that we can't afford him because we have no draft capital to trade. If we did, we might still be in the conversation for Petracca.

If Schultz cost us pick 10 and a second rounder. What will 2x AA Houston cost when we've already traded out pick 10? We're not getting him for F1 and Noble.

 

[LuckyLee]

If there were no compromises whatsoever, then we would see a potential super draft but not with all the concessions.

???
Changes in the picks pecking order via concessions has nothing to do with the quality of players available. If there’s an abnormally high/deep level of talent amongst would-be draftees then it truly will be a “Super Draft” regardless of which Clubs hold specific picks.

For our sake, I hope it’s one of the most overrated drafts in history but, knowing our luck, it won’t be.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Scodog10]

Bewildering!

Houston is arguably the best kick in the game (certainly kicking out of defence) but apparently we don’t need him because we’ve got 5-gamer Parker and 0-gamer DeMattia coming into our backline mix.

It’s cost. There are just a lot of gun-shy types who don’t watch enough footy so they only look at the cost and say “nup no HB is worth that much”.

You’d kill to draft one that good at any point in a draft and folks are quibbling over the trade currency from Noble and a pick that could get chewed by a McGuane bid? It’s mad and they all completely ignore that it’ll take at least 5 years to get Houston level output of any draftee that is basically zero chance of getting to that level anyway. All the while you’ve got the Jordan of AFL in Naicos frothing for premierships. Give him the support and we’ll win them he’s that good.

 

[sr36]

Agree with the math. And I would concede, if we particularly take into account our first round drafting history, maybe we would be better off trading it for an established player.

I've always felt that the Pies haven't made great decisions in the first round, but hadn't looked at the data, so I went and looked at our track record in the past 24 years (yes, got a bit obsessed). It does not look flattering especially outside top 10 picks, F/S and NGA. I look at 2012 (ex Grundy), 2013 and 2020 in particular as big failures.

For whoever is interested (otherwise please feel free to ignore):

2000: Pick 3, Alan Didak (PASS, TOP 10)
2001: Pick 11, Richard Cole (FAIL)
2002:
2003: Pick 17, Billy Morrison (FAIL)
2004: Pick 10, Chris Egan (FAIL)
2005: Pick 2 Daisy Thomas (PASS, TOP 10) and Pick 5 Scott Pendlebury (PASS, TOP 10)
2006: Pick 8 Ben Reid (PASS, TOP 10) and Pick 10 Nathan Brown (PASS, TOP 10)
2007:
2008: Pick 11 Sidebottom (PASS)
2009:
2010:
2011:
2012: pick 18 Brody Grundy (PASS), 19 Ben Kennedy (FAIL), 20 Tim Broomhead (FAIL)
2013: pick 6 Matthew Scharenberg (FAIL), pick 10 Nathan Freeman (FAIL)
2014: pick 5 Jordy De Goey (PASS, TOP 10), pick 9 Darcy Moore (PASS, F/S)
2015:
2016:
2017: pick 6 Jaidyn Stephenson (other than the first year, FAIL)
2018: pick 13 Isaac Quaynor (PASS, NGA)
2019:
2020: pick 17 Ollie Henry (FAIL - but likely ends up a pretty good player for Geelong), 19 Fin Macrae (FAIL), 23 Reef McInnes (FAIL)
2021: pick 4 Nick Daicos (PASS, F/S)
2022: pick 19 Ed Allan (?)
2023: pick 25 Harry De Mattia (?)

That's actually a cracking record. Check out other teams

 

[PiesHateU2]

That's actually a cracking record. Check out other teams

haha, not that obsessed
Did you look at the record excluding Top 10, F/S and NGA?

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Not that this disproves the argument that picks 11-20 are a lottery, however here are the Pick 12s in the past few years:

2015: C Curnow
2016: J. Simpkin
2017: D. Fogarty
2018: Z. Butters
2019: K Pickett
2020: T Bruhn
2021: J Sinn
2022: J Fletcher
2023: P Gothard (have to admit I have no idea who this is)

And in earlier years (yes, I am cherry picking I know)
2011: S Docherty
2007: C Rioli
2006: J Frawley
2005: N Jones
2003: R Murphy
2002: J Schulz
2001: B Reilly
2000: S Burgoyne

Not that bad a Pick to take into the national draft

Pick 12 will be pick 15-16 on draft night.

 

[PiesHateU2]

Yep, aware of that. And we don't actually have Pick 12 so this could all be moot

 

[jimmy35]

Can we draft Ryan Papenhuyzen?

I’m just impressed you could spell it.

 

[DopeMaster]

haha, not that obsessed
Did you look at the record excluding Top 10, F/S and NGA?

How can you present our first round drafting history as evidence we’re comparatively no good at it, without comparing it to other teams records?

The broader point is that people dramatically overrate draft picks because they remember the hits and forget about the many, many misses. It doesn’t take a particularly deep statistical analysis to see that.

Glad our coach seems to appreciate that fact.

As it’s the topic of the hour, if you can somehow turn Noble +F1st = pick 12 / Richard’s into a player of Houston’s calibre you do it every time and walk away laughing.

 

[sr36]

haha, not that obsessed
Did you look at the record excluding Top 10, F/S and NGA?

I'll save you time. If you have the theory that you're going to get an exceptional player more often than not with a pick around 12 then you're going to be unimpressed by any teams top 20 selections.

 

[Bramax]

Personnel isn’t their issue. If anything they have too much talent. The only thing worse than not getting the results with the talent they have is not getting the results and missing on academy players. They have 10 in the future stars match!

Geez.

 

[Bramax]

I don't think we've spent enough on developing players lately. I believe we are fixing that by getting some dude that I can't remember who, lol, but he used to be at our club

Haha yep it’s Mathew Boyd. Highly rated and a a good get back!

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

I’m just impressed you could spell it.

Copy & paste is your friend sometimes

 

[Ugene41]

It’s cost. There are just a lot of gun-shy types who don’t watch enough footy so they only look at the cost and say “nup no HB is worth that much”.

You’d kill to draft one that good at any point in a draft and folks are quibbling over the trade currency from Noble and a pick that could get chewed by a McGuane bid? It’s mad and they all completely ignore that it’ll take at least 5 years to get Houston level output of any draftee that is basically zero chance of getting to that level anyway. All the while you’ve got the Jordan of AFL in Naicos frothing for premierships. Give him the support and we’ll win them he’s that good.

You're dreaming if you think you can get Houston with 3 years left on his contract for a F1 and Noble. That's basically the price we paid for Schultz and Houston >>>>>>> Schultz.

Houston is close to Petracca levels trade cost and there is a reason we no longer talk about Petracca as a target

 

[Mick F]

I tend to agree, I think its very unlikely. Any trade for Houston would depend on what we can salvage out of the Noble trade and then an even bigger IF on whether the club are prepared to torpedo all of our draft capital to get the deal done.

Here is the scenario and package that would put us in the frame for Houston:
J.Noble + 2025 R1 + 2025 R3 > Pick 12 & Pick 20
Pick 12 & Pick 20 > D.Houston

Macrae's comments are interesting around wanting players over picks. Make no mistake, Houston is a star. He would come to the club as the third best player on our list IMO.

If this was to eventuate, they must have really high hopes for Maguane as an A-grade talent.

Agree on concerns of torpedoing all of our draft capital. We need to replace 10 top liners - two players (albeit stars) won’t do that. Given four from our current development squad (Allen, Parker, Steene, TJ) and three FAs we need three quality young fellows via the fraft.

Without Pendlebury, Naicos, Sidebottom, Moore and JDG we aren’t playing finals. But the same could be said about players via trades - Crisp, Cameron, WHE, Howe, Mitchell and Hill. We need to maximise both avenues - a reality not lost on our FD.