Comparing Gold Coast to other debut teams.

[white_noise]

I'm interested in hearing what the educated people of bigfooty.com have to say about the comparisons of the Gold Coast Suns to other debutant teams in the AFL. I have noted that in certain ladder prediction threads people have us placed mostly around the bottom three, and that may well be the case, however I have done a little bit of research into debutant teams first games/season and this is what I have come up with. . .

1987
North Melbourne 15-14-104
Brisbane Bears 19-23-137 at the MCG
3 debut players - Brad Hardie Key signing
Finished 13th on ladder.


West Coast 20-13-133
Richmond 16-23-119 at Subiaco
15 debut players- Ross Glendenning Key signing
Finished 8th on ladder

1991
Adelaide crows 24-11-155
Hawthorn 9- 15-69 at Football Park
17 debut players- Tony McGuiness Key signing
Finished 9th on ladder

1995
Richmond 12-18-90
Fremantle 12-13-85 at the MCG
10 debut players- Ben Allan Key signing
Finished 13th on ladder

1997
Collingwood 26-10-166
Port Adelaide 13- 9- 87 at the MCG
10 debut players- Gavin Wanganeen Key signing
Finished 9th on ladder

The Gold Coast Suns will hit the field rd 2 with about 11 debut players. The experienced AFL players include a Brownlow medalist, a couple of B&F's and multiple premiership medallions. On top of this due to certain concessions (whether they be fair or not) we have and in this seasons draft will continue to sign some of the best youngsters in the land, most of whom have been seasoned and performed stronger as the season went on with the adult bodies of the VFL.

Keeping all this in mind how do you feel Gold Coast will do in 2011? My prediction is 11th place with about 9 or 10 wins

 

[Shane Hird]

West Coast 20-13-133
Richmond 16-23-119 at Subiaco
15 debut players- Ross Glendenning Key signing
Finished 8th on ladder

State team- shouldn't be included.

 

[Thermo]

State team- shouldn't be included.

And why is that

 

[Pie eyed]

I'm interested in hearing what the educated people of bigfooty.com have to say about the comparisons of the Gold Coast Suns to other debutant teams in the AFL. I have noted that in certain ladder prediction threads people have us placed mostly around the bottom three, and that may well be the case, however I have done a little bit of research into debutant teams first games/season and this is what I have come up with. . .

1987
North Melbourne 15-14-104
Brisbane Bears 19-23-137 at the MCG
3 debut players - Brad Hardie Key signing
Finished 13th on ladder.


West Coast 20-13-133
Richmond 16-23-119 at Subiaco
15 debut players- Ross Glendenning Key signing
Finished 8th on ladder

1991
Adelaide crows 24-11-155
Hawthorn 9- 15-69 at Football Park
17 debut players- Tony McGuiness Key signing
Finished 9th on ladder

1995
Richmond 12-18-90
Fremantle 12-13-85 at the MCG
10 debut players- Ben Allan Key signing
Finished 13th on ladder

1997
Collingwood 26-10-166
Port Adelaide 13- 9- 87 at the MCG
10 debut players- Gavin Wanganeen Key signing
Finished 9th on ladder

The Gold Coast Suns will hit the field rd 2 with about 11 debut players. The experienced AFL players include a Brownlow medalist, a couple of B&F's and multiple premiership medallions. On top of this due to certain concessions (whether they be fair or not) we have and in this seasons draft will continue to sign some of the best youngsters in the land, most of whom have been seasoned and performed stronger as the season went on with the adult bodies of the VFL.

Keeping all this in mind how do you feel Gold Coast will do in 2011? My prediction is 11th place with about 9 or 10 wins

Good to see you fella's up and about of the boards.

Hate ya's already.

 

[UrLordLeper]

Well purely on those figures you would expect the Suns to finish between 10th and 14th.. Which isn't too bad. But the one thing which concerns me about this comparison is perhaps you're missing a key factor..
In the cases of West Coast, Fremantle, Port Adelaise and Adelaide, all these teams are from areas where there is a strong, high-quality WAFL or SAFL competition. These clubs all had a large number of players from the local competition who were used to playing a physical, high level of football, with strong, mature bodies.. So IMHO a lot of the debutants in these clubs were in a position where they could compete with established AFL players with not much trouble.
It seems to me that a lot of the debutants of the GC suns are going to be either straight from the draft, or will have had a season of VFL football behind them. They're still mostly under 19 and haven't got tough mature bodies yet.

I could be wrong. If someone could find the average age of the lists of those former debut clubs we'll see if that's significantly different to the age of the GC Suns.

 

[Chasing the Dream]

If someone could find the average age of the lists of those former debut clubs we'll see if that's significantly different to the age of the GC Suns.

The Brisbane Bears average age would have been nearly 45

 

[aneale]

Well purely on those figures you would expect the Suns to finish between 10th and 14th.. Which isn't too bad. But the one thing which concerns me about this comparison is perhaps you're missing a key factor..
In the cases of West Coast, Fremantle, Port Adelaise and Adelaide, all these teams are from areas where there is a strong, high-quality WAFL or SAFL competition. These clubs all had a large number of players from the local competition who were used to playing a physical, high level of football, with strong, mature bodies.. So IMHO a lot of the debutants in these clubs were in a position where they could compete with established AFL players with not much trouble.
It seems to me that a lot of the debutants of the GC suns are going to be either straight from the draft, or will have had a season of VFL football behind them. They're still mostly under 19 and haven't got tough mature bodies yet.

I could be wrong. If someone could find the average age of the lists of those former debut clubs we'll see if that's significantly different to the age of the GC Suns.

Simon Tregenza and Rod Jameson both played that night against Hawthorn, they were our youngest at 20yo. Eddie Hocking and Nigel Smart were 21.

The average age of the Crows, Round 1, 1991 .... 25

David Marshall was 30 he made his debut in 1978! and had played 320 odd games of SANFL footy, Grantley Fielke was 29, Bruce Lindsay was 29, Bruce Lindner was 29, Tom Warhurst was 28, Chris McDermott was 27. The big difference between the AFC and GC will be the sheer volume of footy they had played in comparison. There was BOG players in SoO games from the 80's running around.

That excludes guys like Danny Hughes and Bruce Abernethy that didn't play that night. There would have been close to 3000 SANFL League games running around.

 

[Quinz]

State team- shouldn't be included.

Pointless and incorrect troll.

Incidentally, only 3 players from our first game ended up playing in a premiership with us. Gold Coast would be hoping for a little better than that.

In the cases of West Coast, Fremantle, Port Adelaise and Adelaide, all these teams are from areas where there is a strong, high-quality WAFL or SAFL competition. These clubs all had a large number of players from the local competition who were used to playing a physical, high level of football, with strong, mature bodies.. So IMHO a lot of the debutants in these clubs were in a position where they could compete with established AFL players with not much trouble.

You also have to remember that many of our 'debutants' were older players, we only had two teenagers in our first game (Chris Lewis and Paul Peos).

 

[UrLordLeper]

You also have to remember that many of our 'debutants' were older players, we only had two teenagers in our first game (Chris Lewis and Paul Peos).

That is exactly the point I was trying to make.. The debutants of the new WA and SA clubs (well most of them anyway) had played seasons of top-level football in their states. They were much more experienced and more physically stronger than most of the debutants for the Gold Coast.

As you say, Quinz, only 2 (of 15) Eagles debutants were under 20, and Anele says none of Adelaides seventeen debutants were under 20 (the list's average age boing 25). Perhaps this means, with their comparative inexperience, the debutants of the Gold Coast won't perform as well as those we are comparing them to, and will be lucky to finish above 14th on the ladder.

 

[stmookeyj]

As a comparison...

BEARS
UNDER 20: NONE (Cameron O'Brien and John Fidge were 20)
OVER 30: 1 (Geoff Raines, 30)
100+ VFL/AFL GAMES: 4 (Mark Williams, Raines, Jim Edmond, Michael McCarthy)
AFL/VFL DEBUT: 3 (Neil Hein, Matthew Campbell, Mark Mickan; O'Brien was in his 2nd game)


EAGLES
UNDER 20: 2 (Chris Lewis, Paul Peos; Dean Laidley turned 20 on the Friday before the game)
OVER 30: 1 (Ross Glendinning)
100+ VFL/AFL GAMES: 2 (Glendinning, John Annear)
AFL/VFL DEBUT: 15 (Lewis, Peos, Laidley, Andrew MacNish, Michael Brennan, Darren Bennett, Mark Zanotti, Murray Wrensted, Alex Ishchencko, Wally Matera, Peter Davidson, Adrian Barich, Dwayne Lamb, Laurie Keene, Don Holmes)

CROWS (As per Quinz's post)
UNDER 20: NONE (Simon Tregenza, Rod Jameson were 20)
OVER 30: 1 (David Marshall - Oldest player to make AFL debut for the club to this day, as opposed to old recruit making 1st appearance)
100+ VFL/AFL GAMES: 1 (Tony McGuinness)
AFL DEBUT: 17 (Only McGuinness, Bruce Lindner and Grantley Fielke had past experience in this competition)

DOCKERS
UNDER 20: 2 (Tony Delaney, Peter Bell; Winston Abraham was 20)
OVER 30: NONE (Oldest players were 26)
100+ VFL/AFL GAMES: NONE (Ben Allan was playing his 99th game, Scott Watters only other player to have played more than 50)
AFL DEBUT: 10 (Abraham, Bell, Gary Dhurrkay [RIP], Scott Chisholm, Craig Burrows, Jamie Merillo, Quenton Leach, David Muir, Matthew "Spider" Burton, Scott Edwards)

POWER
UNDER 20: 1 (Peter Burgoyne; Michael Wilson and Brendon Lade were 20)
OVER 30: NONE (David Brown oldest at 27)
100+ AFL/VFL GAMES: 1 (Stephen Paxman, 4 others had played more than 50 and Wanganeen was suspended)
AFL DEBUT: 10 (Burgoyne, Wilson, Lade, Adam Kingsley, Josh Francou, Damian Squire, Stephen Carter, Darryl Poole, Donald Dickie, Darren Mead)

 

[stmookeyj]

The Brisbane Bears average age would have been nearly 45

In the first game, the 20 players were average age of 25.

 

[JWar]

This post is collecting some goods stats, but rather than give AFL/VFL games played, can anyone provide us with details of how many AFL/VFL/SANFL/WAFL games those players had under their belts when they started?

 

[cos789]

The introduction of the Eagles decimated the WAFL .
The introduction of the Crows decimated the SANFL .
The introduction of the Swans had an adverse effect on the SFL .
The introduction of the Lions had an adverse effect on the QAFL .
I don't think the GCFC will effect the QAFL and as a young talented team I think they will struggle to gell for a while but become strong when settled .
Longterm I can see the GC as an attractive place to play because of the lifestyle without the intrusion .

.

 

[aneale]

This post is collecting some goods stats, but rather than give AFL/VFL games played, can anyone provide us with details of how many AFL/VFL/SANFL/WAFL games those players had under their belts when they started?

well Davis Marshall had played 322 games, Bruce Lindsay played 242, McDermott 269 I think, A Jarman was 150+, Darren Smith was 150+, Tom Warhurst was about 250, D Hart was around 180, G Fielke played 16 games for Collingwood in '87 but when he came back he had played about 240 SANFL games, Scott Lee was at 100+

If you look at those who had VFL experience prior to the AFC entry, eg McGuinness, Mickan, Abernethy they all played 100+ SANFL games before crossing, it was not that unusual a situation. Kernahan, Bradley (98), Platten, Motley (92) all had as well or close to it, plus you could add on their SoO games.

 

[JWar]

well Davis Marshall had played 322 games, Bruce Lindsay played 242, McDermott 269 I think, A Jarman was 150+, Darren Smith was 150+, Tom Warhurst was about 250, D Hart was around 180, G Fielke played 16 games for Collingwood in '87 but when he came back he had played about 240 SANFL games, Scott Lee was at 100+

If you look at those who had VFL experience prior to the AFC entry, eg McGuinness, Mickan, Abernethy they all played 100+ SANFL games before crossing, it was not that unusual a situation. Kernahan, Bradley (98), Platten, Motley (92) all had as well or close to it, plus you could add on their SoO games.

This is why I think Gold Coast are headed for the wooden spoon - most of their debutants are players who maybe had one season of VFL under their belts, or maybe none at all. I can understand that Gold Coast are thinking that with all their gorgeous draft picks they can build a team of players who all peak around the same time, which seems to be how clubs are trying to go about things these days.

That's all well and good for season 2017, but it could lead to some very heavy defeats and very small crowds in 2011 and 2012. Do they really want to start that way?

 

[Thermo]

Average age of what I think the Suns round 2 squad will be 22.6

With 9 in the 24-29 range

 

[cos789]

I can understand that Gold Coast are thinking that with all their gorgeous draft picks they can build a team of players who all peak around the same time, which seems to be how clubs are trying to go about things these days.

They can trade them for the right balance .

.

 

[JA27]

interesting that adelaide had 17 players to debut in the afl in round 1 1991, hawthorn had two and those two ended up at adelaide later on

i know darren jarman ended up at hawthorn via brisbane but was he ever a chance of starting with adelaide in 1991?

and why did robran not start out with the crows?

 

[aneale]

interesting that adelaide had 17 players to debut in the afl in round 1 1991, hawthorn had two and those two ended up at adelaide later on

i know darren jarman ended up at hawthorn via brisbane but was he ever a chance of starting with adelaide in 1991?

and why did robran not start out with the crows?

Jarman had agreed in principle to play for us, they had them with letters of intent really, but there was some argy bargy with Hawthorn who were making a play as well, upshot of it all, from what the Crows call dirty tactics at the time, and Neil Kerley probably being a bit naive and treating Jars pretty badly he signed with Hawthorn.

That whole situation actually lost us two, Richard Champion was the player who was going to go onto the list, and they ended up getting blindsided and didnt end up with either. Robran was on the radar but he wasn't a priority.

Wheras now, you would go for the 19you back then they were looking at an immediate fix. Champion was drafted by Brisbane in 88 (Robran in 89), we were able to take him and Brisbane's hold was lapsing so he had to make the decision that year as to what he was doing, in the end he was not going to get on the list of 52 so off to Brisbane he went, but then we lost Jarman and it was too late to get Champion back.

A Jarman lined up on D Jarman, there were signs in the crowd that read "Our Jarman is better than yours" and Fud got a fair bit from over the fence. Worked out OK in the end tho'. But you would have loved to see them play together in their absolute prime, 25yo A JArman and a 23yo D Jarman in the same team, a thing to behold.

You should check out the 1986 Draft. Darren Jarman went pick 55 to Melbourne, the names above him are hilarious.

 

[vinum coupe]

You will be better than all of the start ups (possibly bar WC) in a few years.
But you wont have a first year as good as any of them.

They built teams to hit the ground running.
You have (smartly by the AFL) planned to hit the ground with a roar in a few years.

 

[TheSunGod]

Methinks some of the doomsayers might be in for a bit of a surprise when they see the size of some of our young fellas when they run out to play. It will be the lack of experience across the field rather than the lack of size that will hurt us initially.

 

[bodazoka]

I dont think they GC's lack of experience is extremely low compared to the teams that Richmond and West Coast have put on the park in the past few years. The major boon for the GC is the very high quality of your senior players, which IMO could off set the lack of experience.

Not to mention a few kids like Swallow have spent a full year playing VFL against men and will have the benefit of 2 pre-seasons with the club. You look at kids like Rich, Ziebell and Martin.

 

[The_Reaper]

I think the '15 debutants' for WCE is a bit misleading.
Whilst the WAFL was weaker than the VFL, every 'debutant' had played games at a reasonably high level.

 

[Bozo]

Looking at the draw, GC are playing the top teams at home and the easy teams away so I think the AFL are looking at getting crowds to watch at the Gold Coast by getting the best teams (rated by this season) playing up there. I don't think it will be easy for them as they don't have the easy four points at home to build confidence - but the AFL are looking long term not short term by compromising the draw this way.

There is a large difference between VFL and the AFL, a match winning game at VFL level does not guarantee a promotion to the seniors at any club. Playing at a VFL/WAFL/SANFL level is better than not playing at all though.

I think the AFL will be happy with GC finishing out of the bottom four, pushing for finals would be an unexpected bonus. Then the AFL can concentrate more on the next project team.

 

[The_Wookie]

For me the major difference between the suns and say the eagle/crows setting up, is that teams are much more professionally run these days. Training regimes are much tougher. Not to mention the half dozen experienced and somewhat talented guys that went up there as well. By all accounts the young guys they have are very good.

Im still expecting somewhere between 10-12th.