List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew, Baker Requested Trades - Barrass, Darling Current contract status (Updated 18/9/24) : Total 41 Players (Pending Trades) - Main List (35) Rookie List (4) Cat B (2) Contracted to 2028 (2) : Liam Duggan (11/12/96) - Signed a 4 year...

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Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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[bzparkes]

There's always hyperbole around players especially if you play a big game early in the season.
Reid is legit though, has the performances on the board plus the physical attributes.

Oh, he's still the standout and the one I want.

Just saying that it's a long season.

Look how much of a bolter Oliver was in his draft year, for instance.

 

[bzparkes]

Judd famously taken with Pick 1 in his draft.

Not ever convinced there’s too many sure things with the 18 year olds.

Judd's talent was never denied, it was his shoulders clubs were worried about.

If he had no fitness/injury concerns, he'd have definitely gone no.1

 

[Farang83150]

Judd famously taken with Pick 1 in his draft.

Not ever convinced there’s too many sure things with the 18 year olds.

I know CJ wasn't taken at 1 but he was better than hodge and ball IMO.
No one's saying Reid's a sure thing but going by the way he's been performing and the hype around him he sounds like he may well be a generational player, we've had a taste of a bloke like that at WC before and the timing for it to happen again couldn't be better.

 

[random260]

My only concern for Harley is he becomes Rowell.

In that he is so amped on getting contested ball that he loses his outside game sense. That's risky because he will get injured and targeted real quick.

 

[dinnaz]

Oh, he's still the standout and the one I want.

Just saying that it's a long season.

Look how much of a bolter Oliver was in his draft year, for instance.

Oliver really came good in the second half of the season but for would have been top 30 consideration as a good inside mid anyways averaging around 24 possessions 5 tackles and a goal up until that point. That's about equivalent numbers to Jhye Clark from last year but without being in any rep teams.
I certainly wouldn't have gone at #4 as he was fat and slow without a lot of x factor.

 

[swingdog]

Just on splitting draft picks, I happened to be reading Misbehaving by behavioural economist, Richard Thaler (he's the one in the Big Short in a scene with Selena Gomez explaining synthetic CDOs), which addressed this in the NFL. He and a colleague looked at the performance of draft picks over time and assessed that drafters were generally influenced by five psychological principles:

1. People are overconfident - in this case, in their ability to distinguish between the ability of different players.
2. People make forecasts that are too extreme - "Player X is going to be a star" when in reality star players don't come along that often.
3. The winner's curse - the winner of an auction (or a draft) is the person who is most likely to overvalue the object being sold.
4. False consensus effect - when a team falls in love with a certain player they are sure everyone else does too.
5. Present bias - coaches especially want to win now because of the financial / contract pressures.

Their key finding was:

"So, our research yielded two simple pieces of advice to teams. First, trade down. Trade away high first round picks for additional picks later in the draft, especially second-round picks. Second, be a draft pick banker. Lend picks this year for better picks next year."

I know this is NFL but there's a similar structure (draft, salary cap). Just found it interesting when thinking about West Coast's performance at the draft table in recent years.

You can read the full paper at https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w11270/w11270.pdf

 

[CountryLad]

Oh, he's still the standout and the one I want.

Just saying that it's a long season.

Look how much of a bolter Oliver was in his draft year, for instance.

Yes agree with the fact that it’s early days.

Reid is currently the standout I’ve watched both his games so far this year will be interesting to see if he can maintain the level as others rise.

Ginbey wasn’t really on the radar as a first rounder at this stage last year and he’s going pretty dam well at the moment.

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Just on splitting draft picks, I happened to be reading Misbehaving by behavioural economist, Richard Thaler (he's the one in the Big Short in a scene with Selena Gomez explaining synthetic CDOs), which addressed this in the NFL. He and a colleague looked at the performance of draft picks over time and assessed that drafters were generally influenced by five psychological principles:

1. People are overconfident - in this case, in their ability to distinguish between the ability of different players.
2. People make forecasts that are too extreme - "Player X is going to be a star" when in reality star players don't come along that often.
3. The winner's curse - the winner of an auction (or a draft) is the person who is most likely to overvalue the object being sold.
4. False consensus effect - when a team falls in love with a certain player they are sure everyone else does too.
5. Present bias - coaches especially want to win now because of the financial / contract pressures.

Their key finding was:

"So, our research yielded two simple pieces of advice to teams. First, trade down. Trade away high first round picks for additional picks later in the draft, especially second-round picks. Second, be a draft pick banker. Lend picks this year for better picks next year."

I know this is NFL but there's a similar structure (draft, salary cap). Just found it interesting when thinking about West Coast's performance at the draft table in recent years.

You can read the full paper at https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w11270/w11270.pdf

I've always believed that one of the biggest reasons why teams overvalue the highest end picks is an emotional fear of failure. They don't want to lose their jobs and are too risk averse as a result. They also don't want to end up on the wrong end of all of those articles that will inevitably be written when the player they traded down from plays their 200th game or wins a flag. North rejecting Croms godfather offer for Horne Francis is the most recent example.

 

[CountryLad]

Just on splitting draft picks, I happened to be reading Misbehaving by behavioural economist, Richard Thaler (he's the one in the Big Short in a scene with Selena Gomez explaining synthetic CDOs), which addressed this in the NFL. He and a colleague looked at the performance of draft picks over time and assessed that drafters were generally influenced by five psychological principles:

1. People are overconfident - in this case, in their ability to distinguish between the ability of different players.
2. People make forecasts that are too extreme - "Player X is going to be a star" when in reality star players don't come along that often.
3. The winner's curse - the winner of an auction (or a draft) is the person who is most likely to overvalue the object being sold.
4. False consensus effect - when a team falls in love with a certain player they are sure everyone else does too.
5. Present bias - coaches especially want to win now because of the financial / contract pressures.

Their key finding was:

"So, our research yielded two simple pieces of advice to teams. First, trade down. Trade away high first round picks for additional picks later in the draft, especially second-round picks. Second, be a draft pick banker. Lend picks this year for better picks next year."

I know this is NFL but there's a similar structure (draft, salary cap). Just found it interesting when thinking about West Coast's performance at the draft table in recent years.

You can read the full paper at https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w11270/w11270.pdf

Interesting post.

One big difference would be the talent pool in America would be huge. 330 million people in the US vs 26 million in Australia and really only half the country is Afl dominate.

 

[DanWCE]

I wonder if Cripps managed to get pen to paper on that two year deal. Incredibly unfortunate timing for him and the club

 

[Convocation]

Given we know Bailey/Jamieson/Waterman are not the long term solutions to a decent ruck division, and Nic is getting closer and closer to retirement, should we be looking at Tim English who runs the ruck whilst Barnett learns his craft over the next couple of years. What would English cost to get next year? Are there other rucks that we should be having conversations with?

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

English is contracted until the end of 2024, at which point he’s a free agent.

He’d cost an absolute shirtload if we wanted him on the list in 2024.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

When we include the full list, our average age is 24.4 which is 9th oldest.

When I exclude Yeo, NicNat, Shuey, Cripps and Gov, our average age is then the second youngest at 23.6 (Crows at 23.8 and Hawks at 23.1).

I include Yeo as I do not think he will get back on the park for extended games until at least after the bye.

Effectively in the next 2 months, we will not only have the second youngest list but Simmo will be forced to play the kids meaning we will more than likely be the youngest team on the park.

We apparently have commenced negotiations with Cripps and Gov.

I suspect we will get nothing out of Cripps this year and there must be a serious question mark over whether we offer anything more than an average 1 year contract with triggers for performance etc.

In terms of Gov, in 2019 he played 23 games. Since then, he has gone 12 games (2020). 15 games incl 1 subbed off (2021), 10 games incl 1 subbed off (2022) and likely to miss about a significant stint in 2023.

Yes these 2 players have been greats at the club. That does not mean that they should be getting contracts beyond 1 year and any contract needs to be very modest with performance triggers on availability and performance.

 

[chaddy22]

English is contracted until the end of 2024, at which point he’s a free agent.

He’d cost an absolute shirtload if we wanted him on the list in 2024.

think nicnat,mcgovern,gaff,how many will be there or worth it

 

[Rowan18]

Given we know Bailey/Jamieson/Waterman are not the long term solutions to a decent ruck division, and Nic is getting closer and closer to retirement, should we be looking at Tim English who runs the ruck whilst Barnett learns his craft over the next couple of years. What would English cost to get next year? Are there other rucks that we should be having conversations with?

I had written BBW off after round 1 but he has really impressed me in the last two weeks. If he keeps up this form for most of the year, then I think he will become a solid ruck (ie a B grader, serviceable ruck). I wouldn't be rushing to de-list him yet.

We have Barnett developing, so we either grab a mature stop-gap or back in going with an undersized forward-ruck (Waterman, Rotham etc). We broke even in the midfield yesterday against one of the best rucks in the comp, so I'm happy to stick with what we have for now.

 

[Cuzz09]

We wont finish last but if we did I hope we consider putting pick 1 on the table hoping a vic side will overpay for Reid.

I think we will finish last.

But nothing matters really coz only 1 team can be premiers so may as well rebuild hard

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[Monocle]

English is contracted until the end of 2024, at which point he’s a free agent.

He’d cost an absolute shirtload if we wanted him on the list in 2024.

think nicnat,mcgovern,gaff,how many will be there or worth it

Doggies are going to have some young puppies that are going to need a serious pay rise in the next two-three years, could be an ideal time to offer English a very heavily front loaded contract and that might just be enough to pick the Doggies pockets.

Miguel, will he be a RFA of a UFA ?

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Doggies are going to have some young puppies that are going to need a serious pay rise in the next two-three years, could be an ideal time to offer English a very heavily front loaded contract and that might just be enough to pick the Doggies pockets.

Miguel, will he be a RFA of a UFA ?

I assume restricted? He’ll only have done eight years and you’d think he’d be one of the highest paid players at the club.

 

[Keys]

Doggies are going to have some young puppies that are going to need a serious pay rise in the next two-three years, could be an ideal time to offer English a very heavily front loaded contract and that might just be enough to pick the Doggies pockets.

Miguel, will he be a RFA of a UFA ?

My understanding is he’s a RFA

Not entirely certain of that but close to it

 

[CountryLad]

By the end of 2024 Williams will have played 60-70 games and Barnett possibly has debuted.
I’m not sure about spending big dollars on a ruckman, probably in the camp that you can win flags with role players in that position.

 

[JackOutback]

I think we will finish last.

But nothing matters really coz only 1 team can be premiers so may as well rebuild hard

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We won't finish last, we were down to 18 players, with a couple of hurt ones running round, and dominated the third quarter before running out of legs. We looked great in the first quarter. We will be up and down because of the nature of our younger players, but we'll win a few. And a lot of the younger players will be better for the run. I look at someone like Hewitt who showed something but missed two easy goals, bit of experience and he will come good. Noah Long looks like an absolute steal. Ginbey is solid and just needs experience and confidence to kick more.

 

[FKASC]

By the end of 2024 Williams will have played 60-70 games and Barnett possibly has debuted.
I’m not sure about spending big dollars on a ruckman, probably in the camp that you can win flags with role players in that position.

Yeah I think it’s been pretty well documented that giving big contracts to ruckmen is a fraught exercise.

 

[wirra44]

We won't finish last, we were down to 18 players, with a couple of hurt ones running round, and dominated the third quarter before running out of legs. We looked great in the first quarter. We will be up and down because of the nature of our younger players, but we'll win a few. And a lot of the younger players will be better for the run. I look at someone like Hewitt who showed something but missed two easy goals, bit of experience and he will come good. Noah Long looks like an absolute steal. Ginbey is solid and just needs experience and confidence to kick more.

Probably the concerning thing tho is it’s only round 3 and we’ve just had potentially 4 long term injuries in one game, by round 12 we could be at covid sort of levels and barely putting a squad together. It’s definitely not of the question finishing last. I can’t see us winning a game for at least the next 5 weeks.

 

[Keys]

Bad timing for Gov and Cripps but I think as hard nosed as it would be, the prudent approach is to put contract talks on hold until later in the season

They’re serious injuries that could easily impact their capacity to get back to playing at 100%. Need to see how their rehab goes before committing to any contract extension

 

[Eastern Rangers]

By the end of 2024 Williams will have played 60-70 games and Barnett possibly has debuted.
I’m not sure about spending big dollars on a ruckman, probably in the camp that you can win flags with role players in that position.

Spending big on something that might not be a problem in 2-3 years.

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