No don't know everything because if I did I would not be posting on BF, But I now a bit about the Risk vs reward, and Logistics involved.
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Certified Legendary Thread Corona, Jamaica ooh I wanna take ya (COVID-19 Information & Discussion Here) Part 2 "The Second Wave"
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I have no doubt that they are well aware of how the trials are proceeding, and would have based their decisions on that. The decision to purchase was made after the conclusion of the Phase 2 trials, but long before the Phase 3 trials had been completed. The decision to purchase these drugs would have been based on the Phase 2 trial results, combined with an unhealthy degree of salesmanship from Pfizer (and the other pharmaceutical companies).
The decision to purchase was most certainly not made after the trials had been completed, all data fully reviewed, reported and peer reviewed - because the puchase was done months ago, and the trials still haven't finished (let alone the reporting process). They certainly didn't wait for the TGA to approve the drugs before making the decision to buy.
What we're looking at are vaccines being released into the wild prematurely, without having undergone the longitudinal studies required to determine their long term effects. These vaccines may be approved, but they will carry a degree of risk which is unacceptably high (in my opinion), because of the lack of long term data. Yes, these drugs have had unprecedented money thrown at them, which goes some way towards explaining how they were developed so rapidly. However, money can't buy you time, and time is what is required to determine the long term effects of these drugs. There is a good reason why no vaccine has ever been approved before, in less than 4 years.
Australia only joined the COVAX facility late Sept, and I believe the initial cost was about 120mill of the top may need to check on that,
They did do there Homework,
Money can by time, it allow companies to share their data and result in communication with each other. is made earlier. increase the payments to Volunteers, Allowed them to branch out to more than one group, So instead of taking years to get 30k diverse volunteers, they had them overnight.
But more importantly communicate with customers keeping them up to date with all the data, allowing them to review the data to ensure a quick and Accurate decision.
So Yes Money and cooperation do speed up the Process.
They made their decision based on the best information available at the time - but that information was (and still is) incomplete, because the Phase 3 trials had barely even started at that time (let alone completed, reported, and peer reviewed).
Money buys you better resources - more volunteers in the study, better communication and sharing of information, faster analysis and reporting of data once it becomes available. It doesn't buy you time.
Yes, you get 30K diverse volunteers, but you can't see the 5-10 year effects on those volunteers until 5-10 years have actually passed. Its the lack of knowledge of long term effects which is the biggest thing missing - and no amount of money can fix that problem. They still can't answer what is arguably the most important question - how long does the vaccine's immunity actually last?
Which part about "long term effects" do you not understand? How, precisely, do you think they're supposed to determine the effect the drug will have on the human body in 10 years time, if they have only had time to study the body's response over a 6 months period?
Well guess you guy are correct an the world will not see a vaccine in the near future,
But you not and we will see an Approved Vacine,
We will see a vaccine, which has only been partially tested - and which will be rushed into approval prematurely. It will be extremely risky, due to the lack of long term studies into their effects.
Funny how the quantitative argument from months ago has switched to qualitative. Few 'experts' got this one a bit wrong.
Risk vs Reward, How many Thousand will die if it more than 1-2 year to get a vaccine that meet your time frame, How many will be permanently scared,
Not yet achieve a full year yet 1.27 million deaths, 51mill cases,
- Jun 21, 2014
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This positive announcement is by the company producing the vaccine: doh!
Jenny is right. Peer review by disinterested parties is required. Vader is also right.
There are a lot of uncritically receptive members of the public out there!
Jenny is right. Peer review by disinterested parties is required. Vader is also right.
There are a lot of uncritically receptive members of the public out there!
How many will die if they get it wrong, and it turns out that the vaccine itself is fatal? These drugs will be injected into many, many, times as many people who will ever catch the disease itself.
No doubt the armchair experts like Jen and Vader who have zero specific knowledge and talk only in historic and general terms are where our true should be placed. Think I'll trust the real experts. But I'm a moron like that.
Why don't we go around in circles, it will be easier.
They have done their homework, trial more people from all walks of life more than any previous vaccination before being approved, and because they have not taken the 3-4 years it a problem,
Suit your self don't take the vaccine, just ensure you follow the new laws that will come with those that opt out. and yes there plans to introduce a few laws.
All I will say is they are in production in Australia they are a long way down the path of organizing 2 vaccines from oversea, and their unwritten plan is for roll out early next year well before winter,
They are preparing a rollout plan as I speak,
jenny61_99
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Which has been our collective opinion all along.
Yes, agreed.
Yes, agreed.
... and No.
They haven't had the time to do the longitudinal trials - to determine the long term effects of the vaccine. They don't even know how long it remains effective. We've been told that it's 90% effective - presumably for people who were exposed shortly after being given the vaccine. We don't know how effective it is for people who were exposed to the disease 6, 12, or 18 months after they were given the vaccine.
This is still a huge problem - and no amount of money can fix it. Money can't buy you time. No amount of money can alter the fact that the effects of the drug, on the human body, beyond the initial 6 months (i.e. the length of the studies to date) are completely unknown and unknowable at this point in time. Those effects can't and won't be known until that amount of time has passed.
I will be getting vaccinated, but not until I am satisfied that the drugs are safe - and it's going to take more than spin and PR from the pharmaceutical companies to convince me that their drugs are safe. The TGA won't be falling for their PR & spin either, they will be taking a good hard look at the data before granting any approvals.
No Jen, you have not you have been saying it will be the end of 2021 before we see a vaccine, and giving us all the reason you believe so,
You cannot change the narrative now,
jenny61_99
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You have no idea what knowledge we do or dont have. But you go along with the other armchair expert like he’s in the industry. He’s repeatedly says he’s not in the industry but he “reads”. Well whoopdie doo! Our argument has always been it doesn’t matter how much money you throw at this, there is one thing that it cannot buy, and that is the time necessary to ensure safe efficacy. He disregards that every single time and it’s irresponsible. There is NO WAY of knowing things without the benefit of time.
Yes, as I mention the TGA will make the Call in Australia, and it will be Quicker due to the open communication resulting in all the available data earlier than normal. Which is why the people behind the Production of the Oxford Vaccine and behind arranging transportation for Pfizer and Novavax,
You do understand also that Novavax is a protein-based vaccine, based on technology that has been used for decades
jenny61_99
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I have said, and I stand by it, that we won’t see mass production of any vaccine before the end of 2021 and if we do it will be extremely compromised... and further to that, there will be much we don’t know about it. Like, can pregnant women take it without harming the foetus? How about Immunocompromised people? what about contra-indications with other drugs? So much unknown.
None of which addresses the lack of longitudinal studies, which you repeatedly refuse to address or even acknowledge.
We realise that you're a sucker, who has fallen for the pharmaceutical companies' spin & PR. That doesn't make you knowledgeable on the subject.
Jen I am not in the medical industry, I don't need to be, as I am only using data available to me, Data and reports written by people who are better qualified than you or me, As Mention, my field is risk vs reward, I take the emotion out of the situation, Because regardless what you think getting approval is only part of the problem, one of the other problems is getting it in enough quanity to everyone in a timely and safe fashion,
Again I am only using the data that been given to me to read. From the people who will be making the final call.
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There's nothing wrong with you trusting "the real experts". However, the real experts must be agenda-free and disinterested (yes, you can tell I'm a scientist, where scepticism is all). I can guarantee that none of the information you have at this stage comes from agenda-free, disinterested experts.
The cautionary attitudes of Jen and Vader, no matter what you think of their football opinions, are certainly warranted.
I will be putting my money where my mouth is and will not be vaccinated until a significant period has elapsed following the release of a vaccine.
Just Curious what if the expert scientist approve the Vaccine, will you still wait,
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The approver of the vaccine will be neither agenda-free nor disinterested: there will be a lot of politics involved at any early stage.
GreyCrow
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Yes, and if you believe differently then you havent followed politics
When multiple people who are highly regarded around the world approve the data it starts a person thinking,
When multiple Counties approve the same Vaccine from the Same data, I start to believe it may not be Political,
But when I see the data and look at the risk vs reward I do not see any Politics,
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