COVID-19 / Coronavirus

[Bumps"N"Grins]

Apparently the ADF were offered again and he rejected... for... yep, Airport staff. You can not make this up, literally this guy wants the state to go into free fall.

What do you think the ADF is going to do differently.
Respectfully in real terms, the same mob that have had institutionalized bulling, sex scandals and so forth, short of handing you soup at gunpoint what is going to be different.

 

[Brishawk]

hey tige19 if you like this post then you agree with me that your conclusions based on the cfr were spurious.

 

[tige19]

View attachment 906994
hey tige19 if you like this post then you agree with me that your conclusions based on the cfr were spurious.

I don’t particularly agree with much you say.

 

[tige19]

What do you think the ADF is going to do differently.
Respectfully in real terms, the same mob that have had institutionalized bulling, sex scandals and so forth, short of handing you soup at gunpoint what is going to be different.

They worked with the police commissioner in NSW and have been successful. If some would prefer private security firms or airport staff over the ADF to manage a public health catastrophe then that’s fine, for me, I think it’s abhorrent. I’m surprised I’m needed to answer that question.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

They worked with the police commissioner in NSW and have been successful. If some would prefer private security firms or airport staff over the ADF to manage a public health catastrophe then that’s fine, for me, I think it’s abhorrent. I’m surprised I’m needed to answer that question.

That's fair but what powers do they have other than fining people, tbh I haven't been keeping up to date with legislation changes.
Just not one to trust the military with law and order. Shoot enemies of the state I'm cool with.

Edit what is wrong with police doing police work.

 

[Brishawk]

I don’t particularly agree with much you say.

You have been banging on for days about the cfr and the fraud of Covid and that is all you have to say?

 

[Messenger]

I just get the feeling the longer this goes the more we will look back in five, ten or whatever time, in a world where covid is still with us but we don't look at it as anything more than a very serious version of the flu that kill people in high numbers as the flu today does.

I get your frustration; this feels like it could rumble on for years.

I think this is worth emphasising though. This is not influenza. The death rate is not high, particularly in younger groups but the issue from a health management point of view has always been the volume of people that are not in danger of death but require hospitalisation and significant medical support. Also, the recovery period for many of these people is significant and the long term effects of the virus are not well understood.

I know public systems have been ensuring they have capacity and organising channels to distribute non urgent work away from the public sector. As someone who works in private health I can tell you we still have issues with PPE supply and don’t have access to the national stockpile.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

I get your frustration; this feels like it could rumble on for years.

I think this is worth emphasising though. This is not influenza. The death rate is not high, particularly in younger groups but the issue from a health management point of view has always been the volume of people that are not in danger of death but require hospitalisation and significant medical support. Also, the recovery period for many of these people is significant and the long term effects of the virus are not well understood.

I know public systems have been ensuring they have capacity and organising channels to distribute non urgent work away from the public sector. As someone who works in private health I can tell you we still have issues with PPE supply and don’t have access to the national stockpile.

Still have issue with ppe oh fmd.

 

[Brishawk]

I get your frustration; this feels like it could rumble on for years.

I think this is worth emphasising though. This is not influenza. The death rate is not high, particularly in younger groups but the issue from a health management point of view has always been the volume of people that are not in danger of death but require hospitalisation and significant medical support. Also, the recovery period for many of these people is significant and the long term effects of the virus are not well understood.

I know public systems have been ensuring they have capacity and organising channels to distribute non urgent work away from the public sector. As someone who works in private health I can tell you we still have issues with PPE supply and don’t have access to the national stockpile.

I think we are stuck with some level of social restrictions until effective treatments are developed. Not putting much faith in vaccines as I don’t see any evidence yet that they will be effective. There are going to be outbreaks of it from time to time at which point social restrictions dial up again.

 

[tige19]

You have been banging on for days about the cfr and the fraud of Covid and that is all you have to say?

Well, the CFR is dropping.. until I see more deaths that swing that curve then I’ll hold firm. Case Positive tests to deaths, that’s it in a nutshell.

 

[rdhopkins2]

Talk of building specialised hospitals to deal with Covid infected. It would be controversial indeed. I pity the person giving the order of forced separation of families when a family member becomes ill.

I guess old hospitals, warehouses, asylums, army barracks, school camps and the like could be looked at too.

 

[Gralin]

Well, the CFR is dropping.. until I see more deaths that swing that curve then I’ll hold firm. Case Positive tests to deaths, that’s it in a nutshell.

And hospital loads and treatment times and ongoing issues and availability of PPE and the ability to deal with other patients.
You've decided the hill you want to die on is it won't kill that many and anything else you brush off

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

Happy Birthday
Mr Daniel Andrews.

Party on

 

[Brishawk]

Well, the CFR is dropping.. until I see more deaths that swing that curve then I’ll hold firm. Case Positive tests to deaths, that’s it in a nutshell.

You have never substantiated that the cfr is actually falling or what that really means. You just use it like a dog whistle. You get a hard time on here because you lack the humility and integrity to accept you were wrong and instead just shift your ranting to some new battleground.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

The road out people, what does that look like?
Stats of past data collecting are mostly revisionist, they are not predictive tools to the extent that some would like them to be.
Finger pointing to the fault is all good for venting and holding some to account for mistakes.
What does the road out look like?.
Personally said 100 days ago that it's full Australian border lock down if you are looking to eradicate the virus from our shores. Didn't happen, we just treated the virus like a course of antibiotics that we took for three days and stopped before taking our full course / dose and it kicks back again.
We were told that lockdowns and restrictions were to save the hospital system from being overwhelmed, when are they ever going to be ready?
Sounds like a grizzle but I'm not seeing or hearing from anyone in any government what it is that they are aiming for as a resolution.
I just get the feeling the longer this goes the more we will look back in five, ten or whatever time, in a world where covid is still with us but we don't look at it as anything more than a very serious version of the flu that kill people in high numbers as the flu today does.
People will not stand for periodic lockdowns of suburbs forever and a day. Yep work yourself into the ground to get ahead only to be sat on your backside whilst being fit and healthy for the good of all mantra just won't cut it.
So how do the major contributors on here see this playing out, understand there is and will not be a post covid world just as there is no post influenza world.

Yeah I’ve got no idea what the road out looks like, especially in Victoria.

What I will say is the job keeper stops in 2.5 months and if we’re still in the same place as we are now regarding restrictions, lots of businesses and people will be under insane financial duress.

 

[Brishawk]

Yeah I’ve got no idea what the road out looks like, especially in Victoria.

What I will say is the job keeper stops in 2.5 months and if we’re still in the same place as we are now regarding restrictions, lots of businesses and people will be under insane financial duress.

Federal estimates are that jobkeeper improves the unemployment rate by ‘up to 5%’. That means up to 22% of people on jobkeeper are effectively unemployed if not for jobkeeper. The hospitality sector can’t function without a relaxation of social restrictions but retail has bounced back and construction will have billions thrown at it to ensure it stays afloat. Mining should benefit from Chinese stimulus (unless we shit on our trade relationship with them). So long as the removal of jobkeeper doesn’t result in a spike in underemployment among the 78% of people who would be expected to keep their job without jobkeeper, then there are some reasons to think we can pull through. There is going to be a significant contraction regardless. As a point of comparison, Sweden is forecast to contract 6.8% while Australia is forecast to contract 6.7%. The economic whack is coming regardless of social restrictions.

 

[Pessimistic]

The road out people, what does that look like?
Stats of past data collecting are mostly revisionist, they are not predictive tools to the extent that some would like them to be.
Finger pointing to the fault is all good for venting and holding some to account for mistakes.
What does the road out look like?.
Personally said 100 days ago that it's full Australian border lock down if you are looking to eradicate the virus from our shores. Didn't happen, we just treated the virus like a course of antibiotics that we took for three days and stopped before taking our full course / dose and it kicks back again.
We were told that lockdowns and restrictions were to save the hospital system from being overwhelmed, when are they ever going to be ready?
Sounds like a grizzle but I'm not seeing or hearing from anyone in any government what it is that they are aiming for as a resolution.
I just get the feeling the longer this goes the more we will look back in five, ten or whatever time, in a world where covid is still with us but we don't look at it as anything more than a very serious version of the flu that kill people in high numbers as the flu today does.
People will not stand for periodic lockdowns of suburbs forever and a day. Yep work yourself into the ground to get ahead only to be sat on your backside whilst being fit and healthy for the good of all mantra just won't cut it.
So how do the major contributors on here see this playing out, understand there is and will not be a post covid world just as there is no post influenza world.

How do you know you can eradicate it? localised lockdowns tell me we are getting more sophisticated in our approach, but its painfully slow, and mistakes are made.

 

[Pessimistic]

Coronavirus pandemic may not have started in China, experts say

Oxford researchers say environmental factors, meat-packing plants, faecal spread warrant closer attention, and that some viruses 'don't come or go anywhere, they are always here'.

www.theage.com.au

 

[tige19]

You have never substantiated that the cfr is actually falling or what that really means. You just use it like a dog whistle. You get a hard time on here because you lack the humility and integrity to accept you were wrong and instead just shift your ranting to some new battleground.

I only get a hard time by a select few alarmists who like to do nothing more than scream "run for the hills" for a virus that likely infects many more than we know but has a CFR of no more than 1%, in all reality probably half of that, if not less. Sorry, I don't subscribe to the utter BS that we should be completely shutting down society for this, that's my opinion and you sure as hell won't change it, nor will your twinning leftist besty Gralin.

Do understand, there is a huge % of the population who don't subscribe to scaremongering, accept that, it is a reality.

 

[tige19]

Yeah I’ve got no idea what the road out looks like, especially in Victoria.

What I will say is the job keeper stops in 2.5 months and if we’re still in the same place as we are now regarding restrictions, lots of businesses and people will be under insane financial duress.

This is the unfortunate reality of the response to Covid and the social impacts it has on millions of Australians, if you were to say to anyone in any other time of history that "There will be a time where the worlds economy will be savaged and millions upon millions of people will be jobless, homeless and without means to support themselves because of a respiratory virus that 99% of people survive" you would tell me I am a nutter. Would you not? That is the reality here.

 

[Brishawk]

I only get a hard time by a select few alarmists who like to do nothing more than scream "run for the hills" for a virus that likely infects many more than we know but has a CFR of no more than 1%, in all reality probably half of that, if not less. Sorry, I don't subscribe to the utter BS that we should be completely shutting down society for this, that's my opinion and you sure as hell won't change it, nor will your twinning leftist besty Gralin.

Do understand, there is a huge % of the population who don't subscribe to scaremongering, accept that, it is a reality.

I remember only a few posts ago you said you didn’t cast insults at people but in this post you call people alarmists, scaremongers, and leftists. And you say that people are screaming about this stuff. Who is screaming "run for the hills"? Who are scaremongers? Who are alarmists?

And what do you mean by "a virus that likely infects many more than we know but has a CFR of no more than 1%, in all reality probably half of that, if not less"? Can you explain to me why Sweden has such a high CFR (nearly 8%) if this virus isn't serious? Globally there are 533k deaths from 11.4 million cases, which is a car of about 4.5%. Why is Australia so much lower than the global CFR? And why is it well above 1% when you suggest is likely for this virus?

Australia has conducted over 2.5 million tests for covid-19 which is roughly equivalent to 10% of the population. This includes almost 1 million tests in Victoria which is roughly about 15% of the population. How many more tests do we need to do before we will get an accurate CFR that reflects your belief that the virus is sufficiently harmless as to warrant removal of social restrictions and mandatory quarantine?

And when will you produce anything that suggests the CFR is falling? The chart I posted showed it has been stable for many weeks.

It is actually ok to say, you are badly affected personally by this crisis and it ****ing sucks. It does ****ing suck.

 

[Messenger]

Talk of building specialised hospitals to deal with Covid infected. It would be controversial indeed. I pity the person giving the order of forced separation of families when a family member becomes ill.

I guess old hospitals, warehouses, asylums, army barracks, school camps and the like could be looked at too.

In the short term what you’ll see is some public work go into the private system, particularly around vulnerable groups (think elderly and oncology) and public hospitals clear the decks to deal with COVID.

 

[tige19]

I remember only a few posts ago you said you didn’t cast insults at people but in this post you call people alarmists, scaremongers, and leftists. And you say that people are screaming about this stuff. Who is screaming "run for the hills"? Who are scaremongers? Who are alarmists?

And what do you mean by "a virus that likely infects many more than we know but has a CFR of no more than 1%, in all reality probably half of that, if not less"? Can you explain to me why Sweden has such a high CFR (nearly 8%) if this virus isn't serious? Globally there are 533k deaths from 11.4 million cases, which is a car of about 4.5%. Why is Australia so much lower than the global CFR? And why is it well above 1% when you suggest is likely for this virus?

Australia has conducted over 2.5 million tests for covid-19 which is roughly equivalent to 10% of the population. This includes almost 1 million tests in Victoria which is roughly about 15% of the population. How many more tests do we need to do before we will get an accurate CFR that reflects your belief that the virus is sufficiently harmless as to warrant removal of social restrictions and mandatory quarantine?

And when will you produce anything that suggests the CFR is falling? The chart I posted showed it has been stable for many weeks.

It is actually ok to say, you are badly affected personally by this crisis and it ******* sucks. It does ******* suck.

Bris, if you think personally insulting someone is calling them a leftist (which they openly admit) then we live in a different reality.

Tbh, I’ll openly admit, I only read a line or 2 of your posts, each one you write is a mini essay and does me every time. Sorry mate.

All I do is follow the stats, if there are more deaths the CFR will increase, if there’s less deaths and more cases it drops. I don’t presume anything else.

On Sweden. They test per capital significantly less than we do, our CFR would be much higher if we tested at same rates as them.

 

[Bumps"N"Grins]

How do you know you can eradicate it? localised lockdowns tell me we are getting more sophisticated in our approach, but its painfully slow, and mistakes are made.

Look my thoughts are mostly around lamenting lost opportunities, not much to gain from looking backwards BUT here are some random thoughts or points that are worth thinking about.

We are an island nation, we have or had a high degree opportunity to control this outbreak very early and didn't.
For hundreds of years we have managed to keep our livestock free of many of the diseases that are common to other parts of the world trough bio security controls. Try to bring Dogs, cats, cattle or horses here form overseas and the process is rigorous, quarantine at both ends. As far as I know we only quarantine people when they get here, let the virus in then deal with it and then there is not even a legal compulsion to submit for testing, strange. So if agriculture were to follow the example of human traffic we would just buy so cheap cattle from India put them on a boat ship them over without testing, drop them off at Werribee for 14 days, give them a visual once over and let them off to infect the rest of the country. Bingo no more clean green livestock industry that the country has worked so hard to maintain for years.

Ruby Princess versus North Melbourne tower hard lock down.
There has been no consistent narrative from the media on this. Ruby Princess was all about keep them on board until they test clear then changed to outrage about who let the buggers off. The narrative that has come about out of North Melb is that it is hardly fair that they should be locked up. for me one joint is made of steel and the other concrete and if they were both full of infection they stay locked down, tower people now just waiting on border security to take over the operation and turn a blind eye.

I know how I would have controlled our borders from the early days of the virus, I know that if I was PM I wouldn't be getting re-elected based on my stance but I'm fairly confident that other than tourism almost 25million Australians would be living near normal lives on our island.

That's my lament

I have no solution for our current situation.

 

[Bumpswithagrin]

I only get a hard time by a select few alarmists who like to do nothing more than scream "run for the hills" for a virus that likely infects many more than we know but has a CFR of no more than 1%, in all reality probably half of that, if not less. Sorry, I don't subscribe to the utter BS that we should be completely shutting down society for this, that's my opinion and you sure as hell won't change it, nor will your twinning leftist besty Gralin.

Do understand, there is a huge % of the population who don't subscribe to scaremongering, accept that, it is a reality.

Totally agree with this. People need to look at reality not the guff that's being pushed onto us from the media and 'experts'. Reality is there are very few actual sick people (positive cases do not equal sickness) and the deaths are minuscule compared to other causes. What the politicians are doing I don't know but the effects of this virus do not require the kinds of restrictions and lockdowns that are being imposed upon us. It's not complex, it's not difficult, your don't need post after post of stats and charts to explain it, it's just common sense. Turn of the TV, the radio, get off Twitter, put down the newspaper and look around you. You are fine, your family is fine, your friends are fine, your work colleagues are fine. That is reality, not the virtual world. If some 'expert' or Twitter or something else on the internet said it was raining and you looked outside your window and it wasn't who would you trust? Your own eyes and ears or the virtual world of the media and the internet?