- Oct 16, 2011
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I really hope they don't bat tomorrow, it screams of 1990s England, playing for the draw, an hour out from lunch on the first day, sort of behaviour
Cricket Thread: Indian Summer
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Cummins is not an attacking captain though. Very conservative, gives the impression we are happy with draws because we wont risk losing by giving a team ample overs.
333 run lead with 90 overs in the day. My gut feel is there will be an overnight declaration. Want to make India feel like they have a chance, other wise they will walk out and block. Also dont want to get India 7 or 8 down and we run out of time, all because we chose to soak up some time at the beginning of the day.
Reckon that would've been the worst idea.
Keeping them out there for that hour has a 2 fold effect, you saw their bowlers die in the arse a fair bit AND we put on extra runs.
You can't tell 2 guys to go all out who haven't got the game to do it.
- Oct 2, 2022
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I agree. An hour out, we didn't even have a 290 lead. By the end of the day, India would have been 1-40 and would have cruised it in today without a care in the world.
Really ??
I know you like to pull the "T20 specialists" card, but there's a reason why chases over 300 are rarely successful
Clearly the wicket is deteriorating so having a crack for an early wicket before stumps probably wouldnt have been the worst idea. Now, I dont think they will go for it. likely scenario is they plod along and try and get as close to 200 by the end of the second session with plenty of wickets in hand. On a deteriorating wicket thats not an easy task. If they dont get there I merely see them batting for survival until both captains call it a day.
- Oct 2, 2022
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It's still not a challenging wicket. Lyon and Boland hit a 50 partnership, FFS.
This is a mediocre Indian team, but chasing 290 with so much time they don't even need to take a risk? They would absolutely piss that in.
- Oct 2, 2022
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So, your scenario is, even by plodding along, they'll get within 130 of the target with a full session to go and plenty of wickets? So they'll just need to push it around at maybe 4 an over for a session to win?
India will go for this chase, and with decent batsmen down to 8, they should still feel very confident. Hopefully the wicket starts to actually play like it's day 5, and Lyon maybe offers something.
Foxtel showed a list of highest successful run chases on the MCG in the last 50 years. Yes, the highest successful chase was only around 230 runs - but every one of the chases on the list was either 1 or 2 wickets down, suggesting that much higher totals may have been chased down on those occasions (if higher targets had been set).
This pitch is showing no signs of wear & tear. The ball is coming through consistently, there's nothing keeping low (which used to be a trademark of Day 5 MCG pitches), there are no huge footmarks for the spinners to aim at (as in the days of Warne), and there are no cracks whatsoever evident in the pitch. This isn't like the Day 5 pitches of old - the modern drop-in pitches are almost too good, in that they just don't deteriorate at all.
With 96 overs to be bowled today, there is every chance that a lead of 330 is still very gettable - particularly with Starc wearing out, leaving us with just 2 quicks + Lyon (with the occasional over from Head, and the comic relief from Marsh).
In a way, having a gettable target is a good thing. It gives the Indian batsmen incentive to play their shots, increasing their chances of getting out. They're not just going to put up the wall. On the other hand, the chances of us losing the Test - and by extension the series - is still VERY real.
.... except that it's not deteriorating.
no, plodding along in my scenario is to play conservatively to preserve wickets but keep the scoreboard as best they can ticking over. 90-100 runs per 180 balls per session is manageable if the bowling allows it. India wont throw the bat because they dont want to risk being 3 or 4 down for 150 after the first session. However 3 for 200 is far more a manageable task to throw the bat early in the final session if wickets allow to push for a run a ball chase.
Can India win, absolutely. Just have to see how it plays out.
Yes it is. Far harder to bat on compared to the road Australia had. India found it harder and slow going and Australia never got going in the 3rd innings. So of course it is.
How else do you explain India only scoring less than 190 runs in an entire day. Its hard batting. Australia only managed slow run rate too. Yet now its a batsmans paradise with 6 runs an over possibility with no ability to take wickets?
Yep, it's so hard to bat on that our #10 and #11 just put on a 50+ run stand for the last wicket.
Do not mistake Bumrah's brilliance, and multiple batsmen (from both sides) throwing away their wickets, as implying that the pitch is in any way difficult. Any batsman who puts his head down and does the work will still be rewarded, and will be almost impossible to dislodge.
Will be an interesting day.
According to Cricket Info, they say Australia is going to bat on into Day 5.
Sure they would.
- Oct 2, 2022
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Okay, cool. Well, I guess that's settled.
Luckily they don't have to chase 290 at less than 3 an over - they have a more pressing total and have to take some risks to get there
Doesnt look like they are in a hurry to score. So wicket conservation looks like thats how it will play out. At least until the zip in the new ball starts to die off.
Kane McGoodwin
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It has & the run rate has deteriorated as the game has gone on.
India are a very outside chance to win maintaining over 3.7 per over.
Silly not to declare overnight imo.
- Oct 16, 2011
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Scotty Boland had to be told to put the ramp away
- Oct 2, 2022
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I'm surprised they didn't declare but I don't think it impacts the result.
Looks like a real batter's wicket out there. Drop-in pitches just don't hold any threats. They'll go at two and a half for a while, push it along faster when the ball wears and they have wickets in hand.
We literally saw exactly this happen a couple of years ago with the Indians. There's no fears out there for them.
The runrate will go up if they don't lose any wickets to the new ball. This total is VERY gettable on this pitch.
Kane McGoodwin
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Unlikely the Indians will score a higher run rate than their 1st innings.
They will need to break records to win, so no it's not very gettable!
I'd have the odds at:
Draw - 41%
India Win - 39%
Australia Win - 20%
India far more likely to get the runs than Australia are to take 10 wickets.
The difference between the Indian 1st & 2nd innings is that they now have a reachable target to win the game, as distinct from batting time while hunting down a reasonably large Australian 1st innings total. Much greater motivation for scoring quickly this time around.
Both teams have really come out today with the attitude that they’d prefer to shake hands & not come out post the Lunch Break.
This pitch will still be good enough to be used again for the Big Bash next week.
This pitch will still be good enough to be used again for the Big Bash next week.
