Phantom Draft Dinnaz 2023 Draft Compendium

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dinnaz

The Crystal ball of doom and gloom
Dec 26, 2011
2,471
2,880
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast


I got told to get back to where I belong (watching footy), so for this year ill be around for hyperbole and bad calls (though i'm not an ump).
All my mates know that I think rucks are witless, midfielders are all overrated, back men have it easy these days and that small forwards are SO's. I'll try to remain impartial as much as possible 😜




Some drafting rules which should be considered
RULE #1:#1:thing is ever a sure thing.
Even the most hyped junior might not make it at the top level.
RULE #2:#2:u are what you are.
Players improve across all facets but if you can't find the footy/kick/mark as a junior, you won't all of a sudden magically learn how to.
RULE #3:#3:ealistic means unrealistic.
Hyperbole is rife. Just like a car advert throwing beautiful women in your face but not actually giving any specifications about your new lemon -If you are hearing about a player has the longest arms ever measured, that doesn't mean they will actually be able to mark every footy.
RULE #4:#4:L is an elite competition.
The level of skills and athleticism has never been higher. Players that make an AFL list are really good and would run rings around the rest of us. There's plenty of players around but only the top 15% get a chance.


Some list building rules which should be considered

RULE #1:#1:list is never complete.
The only constant in footy is change. Even a flag winning side can be improved on. Players retire, get injured, become satisfied. Keep bringing in the best you can at all times. If you take more shots more will stick.
RULE #2:#2:e player doesn't make a difference
Good teams can compensate for losing a player though injury. 1 draftee isn't enough to change your teams fortunes.
RULE #3:#3:ee Agency
FA costs you nothing in draft currency. Just because a player wants to come to you doesn't mean you are obligated to trade. You also only get 5 years out of anyone coming in.
 
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So my plan this year is to be thrifty & still spread a wide net. I have a basic framework of what to watch which anyone can follow easily now its all televised. I've highlighted my goals of where to go hard this season. I only watch the top level 18s footy. Vic U19's, WAFL Colts, SANFL U18's plus any representative games like the AFL academy & National champs. If you want to see the Northern state academy teams check out the fixture as they only play a handful of games, usually early on.



WAFL: Streamer: Watch community sport live streams and replays
SANFL: SANFL Digital Streaming Subscription
VFL: 2023 Coates Talent League Boys
VFL: Coates Talent League - Download the App (The cursed app👻👻👻)
To use the mobile apps on PC: BlueStacks – Best Mobile Gaming Platform for PC & Mac | 100% Safe and FREE
 

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Some things I figured out last year while really upping the ante: I was so keen to watch as many games as possible I feel like I wasted a lot of time less relevant games especially early on.

  • Watch games in blocks to get familiar with the players before moving on. Since some things are only on a subscription you can sign up for a week or two then cancel and move on to another comp. SANFL *cough *cough
  • Early season SANFL U18's is a must watch before the good players are promoted to higher grades which is handy as their season starts earlier than the other comps.

  • Work hard to see the first few games of the year. They are essential because injuries happen and you don't want to miss out on seeing everybody at their freshest.
  • Try and see as many top of the table clashes as possible during the year. The footy is generally better and there are more relevant prospects.
  • Finals too. Everybody react differently under increased pressure which is a great intangible to see and tick off

  • Watch all of the national champ games. State leagues can go on the back burner while re-watching or going through it in slow motion with a fine tooth comb.
  • 50% or more players come from the Victorian system, so adjust your viewing accordingly.
  • It's great to see games live, but later in the season is better once you know who and what you are looking for.
 

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Being the lazy man I am, I am starting to figure out the best ways to go about things. *Hint, its not with your mates and a beer & pie combo in your hands 🥲

Viewing live games:

Watching live was fine but takes 3-4 hours including getting ready, travel and lunch. I could view two streamed games in the same time.

Early on in the season it was tough to put numbers to names to faces. Especially without commentary 😵 I’d also not end up taking any notes whilst there as I tried to take in as much as possible.

In the future to make it worth the time ill likely just head down to watch the occasionally double header, finals and U18 champs.

Being able to see the running patterns as well as matchups is great but when you can apply them to a few specific players it’s more valuable.



Streamed Live:

The game is done in pretty much 2 hours which helps because I can cram in another match. When watching the games live you get a good feel for the momentum and general state of things. After all potting a goal in the first quarter is much easier than when scores tied with 5 minutes left on the clock. Or similarly booting it long from full back late in the quarter when other options are on.

Viewing this way, I tend to watch the ball and the direct next contest as you are restricted by the camera angle. You miss moments off the ball and often completely miss quite a lot of what actually happens at contests.

It’s also generally less focus intensive to breeze through a game and I could have lunch or something at the same time and take memos of the big things and still be fresh for the next match.


Replay streams:

I watched a lot more games on replay as the season went on. I felt like I got more value when seeing a lot more of what was happening. The obvious luxury of watching any time was great as well.

I’m thankful for being able to fast forward through all breaks, boundary throw ins and all the other little stops in play. It is also great to be able to rewind 10 seconds to see what actually happened in a pack or where a player ran from and many other little things.

This is where I took majority of my notes. Focusing on big plays at first like a live game but then I realised I could add a bit more detail to what was happening because of the pause button. I did find myself going overboard rewinding at times which really slowed down my viewing speed.

The downside was that everything was effectively viewed in a vacuum. Things like the fatigue of missing a kick after a hard effort weren’t obvious, on viewing it was just an isolated bad kick.



I now think the optimal way to analyse a game is to watch it once live and then go through things on replay to get the best of both worlds. Time permitting its probably only viable for big finals and champs games.
 
Everybody loves a few names so here we go starting with the g̶i̶r̶a̶f̶f̶e̶s̶ Rucks:

Untitled.jpeg
Player​
#Club
Mitchell Edwards37Peel
Evan Smith6Swan Districts
Ethan Read32Gold Coast
Wil Dawson21Gippsland Power
Caleb May36Sydney Swans
 
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The key forwards:
raycharles.jpg
Player#Club
Archer Reid22Gippsland Power
Connor O'Sullivan8Murray Bushrangers
Logan Morris24Western Jets
Luker Kentfield1Subiaco
Nate Caddy2Northern Knights
Riley Weatherill13Eastern Ranges
Jed Walter36Gold Coast
Lachlan Smith42Gippsland Power
Coen Livingstone45Perth
Daniel Curtin7Claremont
Samuel Van Rooyen12Claremont
Will Brown4Sandringham Dragons
Chad Reschke50Sturt
 
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The key forwards:
View attachment 1658330
Player#Club
Archer Reid22Gippsland Power
Connor O'Sullivan8Murray Bushrangers
Logan Morris24Western Jets
Luker Kentfield1Subiaco
Nate Caddy2Northern Knights
Riley Weatherill13Eastern Ranges
Jed Walter36Gold Coast
Lachlan Smith42Gippsland Power
Coen Livingstone45Perth
Daniel Curtin7Claremont
Samuel Van Rooyen12Claremont
Will Brown4Sandringham Dragons
Interesting here as Caddy and Morris are the smallest of the lot at 191/192. Don’t see them as KPF’s in the AFL. Caddy very mobile and see him playing as a 3rd tall Morris best as a deep forward. Running ability and testing results need to be thru the roof as a 3rd tall in the AFL. Thoughts?
 
Interesting here as Caddy and Morris are the smallest of the lot at 191/192. Don’t see them as KPF’s in the AFL. Caddy very mobile and see him playing as a 3rd tall Morris best as a deep forward. Running ability and testing results need to be thru the roof as a 3rd tall in the AFL. Thoughts?
On those smaller key fwds: I can see a smaller powerful type a bit like Crameri being viable. With the 6,6,6 leaving a lot of space to lead into after centre bounces, plus with the amount of ball getting out the back while leading towards your own goals as we have seen this year. I think those guys with great acceleration and mobility will be much more suited in the future unless Ross the Boss wins a flag and everyone copycats congested footy again😂. Obviously i'd still love to have a big monster to be around for the long high ball coming in as my other KPF.

Gunston, Ash Johnson, Curnow at 192/193 are all technically key fwds but are that slightly smaller type and play more on the lead or with a jump.
Franklin at 199 plays smaller than he actually is trying to get on a lead.
Darling at 191 plays taller than he actually is trying to out muscle everyone.
Waterman at 193 plays smaller than Darling but lacks a bit of athleticism to be really dangerous.

Strictly speaking on my board here i'd rather start out with possibles and then rule out KPF as a position. Kind of like how people projected Watts/Lukosious despite them not really having the contested marking. I like really good body players who are strong marks.

From what i've seen, Caddy is probably better deeper but both are capable out of the square. Neither rely on just one style of leading or contested marking to get the footy either. Obviously it's something to think about with the shorter types, so if it gets to champs level and they get pantsed by proper size full backs i'll re-adjust.
 
Another one with a view of the pool.

I'm trying to remember if you had a thread of this nature before now.

Were you around in the KM, Snoop Dog and Quigley days?
Nah nah, just a keen observer then. They all did terrific work back when there wasn't a lot of info out there.
 
Luker Kentfield but he ken play footy.
He's a good kent for sure.
1194538.jpg

Some parents have a lot to answer for, it's not like nicknaming your pokemon:
Jude Mazzucchelli - The jeweller
Zaiden Ladyman - 👀
Odin Jones - Thor
Tyler Lindberg - The baby
Ethan Logan - Wolverine
Jagga Smith - Mick
Ziggy Toledo - I got nothing, but I want to go to a music festival and see what happens
 

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Pre-champ rankings incoming.

Vic Country
WA
Vic Metro
Allies
SA

For my draft board there's a good mix of types.
Vic Country seem the team to beat this year and are strong.
WA have great KPP but I think will struggle through the midfield.
Vic Metro are unusually weak.
Allies are likely to field their strongest lineup ever.
SA don't seem to have the top end and seem below par this year.
 
Having watched the first half of the champs the Allies have been an absolute powerhouse!!

SA and WA in particular looked really sluggish to get up to tempo in their first games coming off that 12 month bye😉. SA really surprised in knocking off Vic Country. The Allies hit the ground running, literally & I think they have a good squad but some savvy coaching has helped them capitalise on using their star talent in their best roles and getting the ball into their hands while their bottom few players seem to be playing great roles.
 
---June top 20---
The champs are always a good way to gauge prospects against each other but more importantly in my thinking, it's seeing players perform in a higher level of competition compared to their regular state leagues.


My top 8 are a cut above and its quite a strong group with a lot of variety other than dominant inside midfielders.

Name
#
Club
#1Harley Reid5Bendigo Pioneers
#2Zane Duursma9Gippsland Power
#3Connor O'Sullivan8Murray Bushrangers
#4Ryley Sanders15Sandringham Dragons
#5Colby McKercher27Tasmania Devils
#6Jed Walter36Gold Coast
#7Nick Watson5Eastern Ranges
#8Archer Reid22Gippsland Power
  • Harley Reid is in top spot but that's not indisputable as i'm still waiting on a big performance before I will be happy.​
  • I'm jumping on the O'Sullivan bandwagon after a mammoth performance against WA. I had him top 10 or so but now he's solidly top 5.​
  • Archer Reid is slightly higher than where he should go because I think has rare positional skill to play key fwd and as a backup ruck to a high level.​

I'll throw out 12 more names but there are still a lot of question marks about this group. There are definitely more that can come into this group as the year continues and a few that drop out.
Name
#
Club
Top 20Ashton Moir30Glenelg
Top 20Clay Hall21Peel
Top 20Daniel Curtin7Claremont
Top 20Ethan Read32Gold Coast
Top 20George Stevens23Greater Western Victoria Rebels
Top 20Jack Delean10South Adelaide
Top 20Joel Freijah7Greater Western Victoria Rebels
Top 20Koltyn Tholstrup23Subiaco
Top 20Luker Kentfield1Subiaco
Top 20Mahmoud Taha16Calder Cannons
Top 20Mitchell Edwards37Peel
Top 20Nate Caddy2Northern Knights

  • I think Curtin is this years trojan horse. Is one of this drafts best kicks but isn't great at being a tall.
  • Caddy is interesting, is probably a slightly undersized KPF at AFL but i'm not sold completely yet.
 
Having a chat on the WCE board about the strength of drafts year to year got me thinking. I ran some numbers on the amount of underage players for that year in the vic talent league. Both fixtures are pretty even Victoria 13 games, Allies 3-4 games in 2022 & Victoria 13 games, Allies 5 games in 2023. However we are just over halfway for this season.

2022 (248)
Metro: 102
Country: 107
Allies: 39

2023 (249) 11/17 rounds
Metro: 102
Country: 69
Allies: 78

I'm not quite sure what to make of it yet though i'm leaning on 2022 being a stronger comp overall with less underage players used.

Plenty of questions, the main ones I have are
  • Did covid still affecting the 2022 draft with a lot more 19 year olds playing in 2021 and the flow down effects of 15/16 age seasons.
  • Are Metro clubs are playing more underagers because their squads are weaker.
  • Will Country be weaker next year because of less exposure and development of players this season?
EFA* 2022 numbers + 25,+15,+1
 
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Having a chat on the WCE board about the strength of drafts year to year got me thinking. I ran some numbers on the amount of underage players for that year in the vic talent league. Both fixtures are pretty even Victoria 13 games, Allies 3-4 games in 2022 & Victoria 13 games, Allies 5 games in 2023. However we are just over halfway for this season.

2022 (217)
Metro: 87
Country: 92
Allies: 38

2023 (249) 11/17 rounds
Metro: 102
Country: 69
Allies: 78

I'm not quite sure what to make of it yet though i'm leaning on 2022 being a stronger comp overall with less underage players used.

Plenty of questions, the main ones I have are
  • Did covid still affecting the 2022 draft with a lot more 19 year olds playing in 2021 and the flow down effects of 15/16 age seasons.
  • Are Metro clubs are playing more underagers because their squads are weaker.
  • Will Country be weaker next year because of less exposure and development of players this season?
This is interesting and could line up with some theories I have.

1. I think 2022 was under rated as a draft, their 2021 u17 series was very impressive and leading into 2022 draft day, the media was talking about the supposed 2023 super draft, which has not eventuated, also Victoria where most of the prospects come from every year was very strong that year, which helps with a strong pool.

2. This year seems an OK pool of talent, but not strong in midfield talent which seems to be the area most drafts have depth in.

3. If the u16s are anything to go by, they usually are a good indication, then SA and VM were very strong, with WA and VC very weak for next year also Allies are not looking strong with a weaker than normal Tasmania and not too many Northern Academy standouts in 2024 from what I have seen, the only exception to this would be the number of highly talented VC kids that have emerged this year in the CTL so far this year, which might help VC be more competitive for next year, although VC, WA and the Allies look likely to struggle next year in the champs imo, unless they have good camaraderie or something.

I think what we are finding with your numbers is the quality of next year spills over as number of underagers and like you said the strength of the current year denying opportunity, but I'm not sure about the Allies numbers for 2024, I think that's more that the Allies have a strong 22 this year, but the Northern Academies and Tassie have lost most and I think the northern academies lost all of their games to the full strength CTL Teams, so as squads they are weak, but at the top end are strong as far as the Allies team is concerned.

As for draft strength I would guesstimate that it was a 9/10 draft in 2022, this year is an 8/10 draft and next year is a 9/10 draft, something like that imo, take it with a grain of salt, these numbers are an indication of quality moreso than an actual prediction...

You are right on more 19 year olds playing in 2022 in the CTL, it seemed that way anyway, players getting opportunities because of the cancelled 2020 season and the 1/3rd 2021 season, there are many reasons as to why they had less underagers last year, stronger comp, more 19 year olds taking spots and weaker draft in the next year during 2022 imo.....
 
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This is interesting and could line up with some theories I have.

1. I think 2022 was under rated as a draft, their 2021 u17 series was very impressive and leading into 2022 draft day, the media was talking about the supposed 2023 super draft, which has not eventuated, also Victoria where most of the prospects come from every year was very strong that year, which helps with a strong pool.

2. This year seems an OK pool of talent, but not strong in midfield talent which seems to be the area most drafts have depth in.

3. If the u16s are anything to go by, they usually are a good indication, then SA and VM were very strong, with WA and VC very weak for next year also Allies are not looking strong with a weaker than normal Tasmania and not too many Northern Academy standouts in 2024 from what I have seen, the only exception to this would be the number of highly talented VC kids that have emerged this year in the CTL so far this year, which might help VC be more competitive for next year, although VC, WA and the Allies look likely to struggle next year in the champs imo, unless they have good camaraderie or something.

I think what we are finding with your numbers is the quality of next year spills over as number of underagers and like you said the strength of the current year denying opportunity, but I'm not sure about the Allies numbers for 2024, I think that's more that the Allies have a strong 22 this year, but the Northern Academies and Tassie have lost most and I think the northern academies lost all of their games to the full strength CTL Teams, so as squads they are weak, but at the top end are strong as far as the Allies team is concerned.

As for draft strength I would guesstimate that it was a 9/10 draft in 2022, this year is an 8/10 draft and next year is a 9/10 draft, something like that imo, take it with a grain of salt, these numbers are an indication of quality moreso than an actual prediction...

You are right on more 19 year olds playing in 2022 in the CTL, it seemed that way anyway, players getting opportunities because of the cancelled 2020 season and the 1/3rd 2021 season, there are many reasons as to why they had less underagers last year, stronger comp, more 19 year olds taking spots and weaker draft in the next year during 2022 imo.....


I think overall a superdraft has quality and depth in every position, rather than just being stuffed full of superstars. Most people get hyped over the top end which is understandable especially if it's on display as a 17 yr old aka Harley Reid.

Agreed, usually there's a bunch of midfielders who miss out for whatever reason. I think a good recruiter can really earn their keep this year.

I had 16's as a bit too far back to make a judgment call though the better players really stand out and the champs usually turn on how your stars perform. I don't watch 16s outside of keeping tabs on the state squads. There's always heaps coming from the clouds in their 18th year.

🤔I am leaning that way as at 18's I do assume that every team coaches to win with a equitable selection policy so that means you only play top tier or champs at 16/17 if you are a really good player. It could be a case of specific teams looking to the future making line ball decisions erring towards youth. No one would come out and say it of course. There's plenty of vagaries like the fact Sandringham has played 70 players and Murray Bushrangers 42 players through injuries and other commitments. Allies teams are mostly Tas which skews things as well. NT are really just a PR exercise at this point as they always get thumped.

Bloody covid😂😂 Noticeably plenty of 2020 players are underdone at AFL level rather than the talent not actually being there, but no one played so we have to guess a little bit based on outcome. I'd actually love to see more 19 year olds playing if justified. The whole comp is stronger and you lose from the bottom end not the draftable guys anyway.

I'm assuming 2001 was a 10/10 draft and 2020 as a 1/10?

2022 was quite deep though I think it lacked bankable star power 7/10
2023 might be something like a 5/10
 
Looking by outcome I found this article
Season 5 Episode 6 GIF by The Simpsons

Bow down to our Champion data overlords🙏

 
---June top 20---
The champs are always a good way to gauge prospects against each other but more importantly in my thinking, it's seeing players perform in a higher level of competition compared to their regular state leagues.


My top 8 are a cut above and its quite a strong group with a lot of variety other than dominant inside midfielders.

Name
#
Club
#1Harley Reid5Bendigo Pioneers
#2Zane Duursma9Gippsland Power
#3Connor O'Sullivan8Murray Bushrangers
#4Ryley Sanders15Sandringham Dragons
#5Colby McKercher27Tasmania Devils
#6Jed Walter36Gold Coast
#7Nick Watson5Eastern Ranges
#8Archer Reid22Gippsland Power
  • Harley Reid is in top spot but that's not indisputable as i'm still waiting on a big performance before I will be happy.​
  • I'm jumping on the O'Sullivan bandwagon after a mammoth performance against WA. I had him top 10 or so but now he's solidly top 5.​
  • Archer Reid is slightly higher than where he should go because I think has rare positional skill to play key fwd and as a backup ruck to a high level.​

I'll throw out 12 more names but there are still a lot of question marks about this group. There are definitely more that can come into this group as the year continues and a few that drop out.
Name
#
Club
Top 20Ashton Moir30Glenelg
Top 20Clay Hall21Peel
Top 20Daniel Curtin7Claremont
Top 20Ethan Read32Gold Coast
Top 20George Stevens23Greater Western Victoria Rebels
Top 20Jack Delean10South Adelaide
Top 20Joel Freijah7Greater Western Victoria Rebels
Top 20Koltyn Tholstrup23Subiaco
Top 20Luker Kentfield1Subiaco
Top 20Mahmoud Taha16Calder Cannons
Top 20Mitchell Edwards37Peel
Top 20Nate Caddy2Northern Knights

  • I think Curtin is this years trojan horse. Is one of this drafts best kicks but isn't great at being a tall.
  • Caddy is interesting, is probably a slightly undersized KPF at AFL but i'm not sold completely yet.
Kentfield will be lucky to get drafted imo

Later pick at best
 
Kentfield will be lucky to get drafted imo

Later pick at best
Watching him early season in the colts he was super in marking contests but perhaps limited in that kind of deep fwd role. Definitely thought he might be a second round chance at that stage.
Surprisingly he played a few league games for Subiaco which is a plus to see he can crack that level, though was pretty invisible which happens. Has then played champs and been really solid-good in a pretty poorly performing WA team.
Got "rested" last night for WA where they really showed up so it's hard to exactly pinpoint where he's at. I'd say if he keeps performing at the same level then late-rookie is definitely his range but I think he might kick a few bags and put his name up.
 
Watching him early season in the colts he was super in marking contests but perhaps limited in that kind of deep fwd role. Definitely thought he might be a second round chance at that stage.
Surprisingly he played a few league games for Subiaco which is a plus to see he can crack that level, though was pretty invisible which happens. Has then played champs and been really solid-good in a pretty poorly performing WA team.
Got "rested" last night for WA where they really showed up so it's hard to exactly pinpoint where he's at. I'd say if he keeps performing at the same level then late-rookie is definitely his range but I think he might kick a few bags and put his name up.
Any standout performances at the u18 champs or league level can help

The issue is his small size for KPF, can only play KP and doesnt seem a great athlete or elite kick observing from limited amount

Edit: Its also not like hes a twig still, hes really well developed at mid 90 kegs so he should be bullying these smaller KPDs that havnt added the bulk yet and he isnt/doesnt/yet to

Evan Smith looked far better imo and gets picked up i reckon but ive only seen once

Rudd a similar size is a much better mover x kick from what i can see
 
Any standout performances at the u18 champs or league level can help

The issue is his small size for KPF, can only play KP and doesnt seem a great athlete or elite kick observing from limited amount

Edit: Its also not like hes a twig still, hes really well developed at mid 90 kegs so he should be bullying these smaller KPDs that havnt added the bulk yet and he isnt/doesnt/yet to

Evan Smith looked far better imo and gets picked up i reckon but ive only seen once

Rudd a similar size is a much better mover x kick from what i can see
I try not to place too much value on one game and rather a full season of work. But it''s one of those boxes you can tick off as the closest thing to AFL level.

I like Evan Smith too, and he was pretty good. I kept an eye on his fwd line work as at 198cm he's a little undersized for a ruck where he usually plays so will spend a fair bit of time fwd I assume if he makes it at AFL level. Got to a lot of long balls but didn't dominate. Whether that's a timing thing or lack of acceleration im not sure yet.

Rudd did a few nice things, but isn't really on my radar. I have him listed at 189 which isn't KP height.
 
I try not to place too much value on one game and rather a full season of work. But it''s one of those boxes you can tick off as the closest thing to AFL level.

I like Evan Smith too, and he was pretty good. I kept an eye on his fwd line work as at 198cm he's a little undersized for a ruck where he usually plays so will spend a fair bit of time fwd I assume if he makes it at AFL level. Got to a lot of long balls but didn't dominate. Whether that's a timing thing or lack of acceleration im not sure yet.

Rudd did a few nice things, but isn't really on my radar. I have him listed at 189 which isn't KP height.
The mixture of heights around even though within 3cm is a factor

Ive seen Smith at 200 and Rudd at 192, not a ruck for Smith at AFL and not a KPF for Rudd at AFL but a 3rd tall
 

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