Don't Panic

[Duritz]

OK finally!!!

1 week is a long, long time for a red card, especially when the WORLD (Lions world 2008) ends while you're barred......

But I haven't wasted the time. I've spent the time reading. I've read allthe threads, all the trolls, all the bitching and encouraging, all the cannibalism and faith, that Lions supporters and Lions enemies have posted here since, as one put it, "Can't wait for footy season 2009" began on the 23rd of this month.

Hence the reason for this thread, and the title stolen from one of the great comedic writers of all time.

Here are some stats, not to alleviate the pain, but to explain why the pain is there:

- 4th in the League for scoring shots, behind the "big 3" this year, Geelong, Hawthorn, WBD.

- Lost to Melbourne, with more scoring shots.
- Lost to Richmond, with more scoring shots.
- Lost to North, with more scoring shots.
- Lost to Carlton, with more scoring shots.

- In the North loss, as most in this board know, the Lions scored 10 goals between Brown & Bradshaw, and the rest of the team kicked 1.15.

- Late in the Richmond game, Stiller had a shot for goal from 40m out to clinch the game, it was nearer to out on the full than to a goal.

- Late in the North game, Johnstone of course with his miss.

- Essendon developed what I termed their "no miss" policy in their game against us. They refused to miss.

- Richmond brought this tactic out, too, kicking 13.3 (on memory) from set shots.

End poor kicking stats.

The fact is, every set shot the Lions missed, every goal on the run the Lions missed, each was a small nail in our coffin of missing the 8.

And before anyone says, "Yes, well poor kicking is it's own reward - if your skills are too poor then you don't deserve to win", I will agree with you. Poor kicking is it's own reward, and our reward is the pain we are now enduring.

But the important thing is that we were, this season, quite literally just some STRAIGHT F**KING KICKING away from being in the finals, with a home final. That's the difference, that's why we're not there.

It's not Leigh Matthews fault. It's not the bloody comittee or the bloody runner (works his balls off CJ on the field), it's a skill error that's been riddling us for the last few years.

The good thing is, this will hurt them. Forget this "rugby culture" that we think exists ever since Matthew's partially glib comment about Brennan, watch Brennan on the replay after that game, he clearly hurt. The players all hurt, and they now have September to realise what they've missed, and then summer to work out how to fix it. This will hurt them and hopefully in 2009 we can move that hurt to the opposition. We are not Geelong, but in 2006 they had a shocker, they were hurt, and they bounced back. So too can this group.

Forget the disbelievers, they're largely supporters of other clubs who want to see the cracks in the lines of this army appear, because those cracks have not been present for years. They want to see division, in-fighting, coach sackings, captains leaving, because that's what has happened at their clubs the last decade. Misery loves company.

Well, stuff them. Matthews and the players deserve their chance to show in 2009 what they should've been able to do in 2008, and more.

Lastly - NOBODY is getting within a bulls roar of Geelong this year. While it would've been nice to play finals, etc, no way has our stuff ups cost the club a premiership. The people who should be MOST disappointed this year are Hawthorn, and the Western Bulldogs, because this year was "premiership window" material for them, and unfortunately for them they've come up against one of the great sides of all time, in Geelong, and they will be flogged. That has cost them a chance at a premiership. We haven't been denied that, because our time has not yet again come, though it will.

 

[Duritz]

One stat I forgot to put in there:

We have beaten 5 out of the 8 teams who will play finals, and get our chance to make it an incredible 6 teams out of the 8, this week, when we play Sydney. If we can beat 75% of the teams in the 8, then we are undoubtedly a top 8 side. We just royally f**ked up our chances against the bottom teams.

 

[Gabbatoir]

Proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.

I do believe i needed that Duritz.

BRING ON '09!

 

[whizkizz]

Re: Maybe panic a little?

One stat I forgot to put in there:

We have beaten 5 out of the 8 teams who will play finals, and get our chance to make it an incredible 6 teams out of the 8, this week, when we play Sydney. If we can beat 75% of the teams in the 8, then we are undoubtedly a top 8 side. We just royally f**ked up our chances against the bottom teams.

Umm first of all, great post Duritz. Great summary and theres a lot of logic to what you've come out and said.

But as you and many others say, we beat 5 of the top eight teams. But what is never mentioned is that we won ALL of these games at the Gabba. Our on the road form was horrendous. We beat Carlton with a first quarter of magic through their consistent errors, and beat Port Adelaide with help from their extremely poor last quarter (worse than our last quarter in Round 21 to show a comparison).

We were thrashed on the road (barring the Geelong game) by all the great teams, and we lost to just about all the bottom eight teams marginally. What if we'd played Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda on the road? Going by this trend, me may have lost all these even without last quarter fadeouts.

I'm usually the optimist, but these results are damning. It shows we can just about beat anyone on our home turf, but we couldn't win an away game (or even a game at Carrara) to save our life.

This is our problem. Sadly we're not as good as we thought we'd be, and this year we were gifted with IMO a great draw. Next year we MUST win away games to be a threat at all.

 

[Lace Out]

Next year we need Brennan and Rischi to CUT SWATHES THROUGH THE CENTRE SQUARE.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Great post Duritz (and even better for quoting the late DNA!). Yep, we should be winning games we lost. But I strongly believe the measure of how good a team is how many scoring shots they generate. I don't think any coach going around in recent memory has come up with a good way of improving goalkicking accuracy*. It reminds me of one season (either 2004-2005?) when the Bulldogs basically kicked themsleves out of a finals birth through poor goalkicking. three years on and they're looked on as one of the most skilful sides in the comp.

* For another thread perhaps, but I'd love to see every player with a set routine i.e. number of steps, arc of runup, etc. that they do not deviate from (unless they're kicking a banana or hooking it around the body)

 

[Cousin Jed]

Re: Maybe panic a little?

We beat Carlton with a first quarter of magic through their consistent errors, and beat Port Adelaide with help from their extremely poor last quarter (worse than our last quarter in Round 21 to show a comparison).

So what? Are we suddenly going to get 4 points back from other teams because we beat ourselves with one poor quarter? Or are they only giving 2 points for games in which teams play poorly against you?

Shows when the opposition wilted we were able to take the chances.

 

[Duritz]

Something else I meant to mention -

Last Wednesday, I was in the car and on SEN down here they were interviewing Nigel Lappin about his retirement. He made some comments that kind of enlightened what the situation is at Brisbane. I of course can't quote it verbatim, so I'll paraphrase:

When asked about flooding in the current game (something the Lions have been castigated for not doing to "ice" games), Lappin said something like, "Leigh is trying to teach the players to win games. He's teaching them a style of football that works in finals, it's proven, both by us and by Geelong, who play the same game we play."

That's why I am not critical of the no flooding technique: Geelong don't bloody well flood or "ice the clock" (sounds like something a gangster does!), we shouldn't either. When this playing group is old enough, mature enough, strong enough, fit enough and can kick straight enough to challenge inside the 8, this is the game plan that can win us games, not the "ice the clock" mentality.

Paul Roos won a flag with Sydney flooding and icing the clock because he didn't have the team to play the game this way. No way would that Sydney side of 2005 have beaten the Lions in 01-03, and no way would they beat current day Geelong.

Leigh is teaching them how to play the most successful brand of football there is. Our playing group as a whole is not quite ready to play that way, given that there are so many who are still on the way up, and that's why we haven't been able to do it for 4 quarters, and have lost so many games we could've won this year; but the point I took from Lappin's comments was that when they ARE ready, they will be confident enough in the gameplan, having had it drilled into them for all their years at the club, that in finals they'll be able to implement it.

 

[Cousin Jed]

Playing the way Geelong play, but I read that Leigh was past it and doesn't know anything about the modern game?

 

[Duritz]

Playing the way Geelong play, but I read that Leigh was past it and doesn't know anything about the modern game?

Exactly, it's reactionary. I am a huge fan of how the team plays, I just think they're a bit immature to play that way, but that comes with time.

Clearly, Brown/Bradshaw thrive on this style, they just need to be patient and when the rest of the team (excepting Black/Power of course) thrive on it too with time, we'll be right up there again.

 

[Chasing the Dream]

Hey Duritz,

any chance on a mathematical formula on our chances for 2009?

I really liked that thread last week.

 

[Duritz]

Hey Duritz,

any chance on a mathematical formula on our chances for 2009?

I really liked that thread last week.

LOL..... yes with 24 rounds, the permutations are unbelievable of course. They'd all fit into Excel 2007 but I run Excel 2003 because good old Microsoft decided to change EVERYTHING in Office 2007.... and I'd need a bloody long time to do it!!

We'll do something when the draw comes out, maybe some sort of consensus of opinions, see if we can estimate the ladder for next year based on the collective opinions in here.

Leave it with me, I do love odds and probabilities...

 

[kimp]

Duritz don't get banned again.

 

[Lehmo87]

Exactly, it's reactionary.

One thing I have never understood about some posters is their criticisms of Lethal being "reactionary". Someone may enlighten me (and probably will) about why it's a bad thing but I would imagine most coaches would go by the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" theory. If Team A is losing to Team B then Team A will change something (a proactive move) and Team B will try to counter it (a reactionary move). I can understand the criticism if we are losing to an extent but I am not a major fan of going to plan B midway through a game. Just tuning it a bit.

 

[Duritz]

One thing I have never understood about some posters is their criticisms of Lethal being "reactionary". Someone may enlighten me (and probably will) about why it's a bad thing but I would imagine most coaches would go by the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" theory. If Team A is losing to Team B then Team A will change something (a proactive move) and Team B will try to counter it (a reactionary move). I can understand the criticism if we are losing to an extent but I am not a major fan of going to plan B midway through a game. Just tuning it a bit.

Lehmo I wasn't saying Matthews is reactionary, I meant the criticisms levelled at him because we finished the year badly were reactionary.

 

[Duritz]

Duritz don't get banned again.

I don't think I said anything in any of those posts that was offensive or ban-able...?

I've been in trouble for stirring the pot on some of the more "loose" BigFooty forums though... have to keep the nose clean there.

 

[chopperduck]

i agree Duritz, we haven't been able to fulfill our capabilities this year, but its not because we are being coached wrong. it is because of our game plan that we can produce that 3rd quarter v the blues and 4th quarter v port. it is a very good game plan, but you gotta hit targets, which we aren't doing yet.

as i've said in another thread, our core gameplay, attitude etc is great. the players are proud, put in 100% and go at the game. we just lack the polish that will allow us to put sides away and the fitness and experience to make it a 4 qtr effort (hell id be happy with 3 qtr effort). but you cant deny the signs, and we played some brilliant footy in the 3rd v carltank. handballs were clean, kicks were to advantage of forwards, ball moved quick and we won clearances. 4th we couldn't even win the ball never mind trying to kick to a team mate.

we will get there, the closer we get the more hungry the boys will get, after missing this year by a game, i think we will have a finals spot wrapped up by round 20 next year, and be gunning for top 4

 

[Lehmo87]

Lehmo I wasn't saying Matthews is reactionary, I meant the criticisms levelled at him because we finished the year badly were reactionary.

It doesn't matter too much. It's still relevant to how some people view the year despite evidence to the contrary. I just saw another person say Lethal should go because we should be challenging Top 4 and we would have done just that if it were not for poor kicking in close games. Tactics aren't solely to blame.

 

[Ceebee]

Duritz you are the voice of reason, well said mate and keep on posting.

 

[Lion Power]

Duritz, top post.

 

[lion12footy]

This is a great thread Duritz!!
Although we were hurting after last week's loss (I'm still a bit stunned by it all) it is so important to find positive's from our season. We are a great team with great players and we have a great future. Life is too short to find negative's all the time. By the way I was at the game we played at Aami Stadium and we won that game by brilliant play and a steely determination. Port did not lose it!!