Eddie_Sandbrah
Team Captain
- Sep 6, 2023
- 461
- 861
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Banned
- #1
There's a lot of talk and resentment on here regarding the Eagle's poor drafting. My gut feel has always been that it's slightly under par, but nowhere near as bad as many people make out. It's very easy to spot a gun player who was taken 10 players after a player we choose than turned out less than average. It's very easy to say, "why didn't we take Chad Warner!?".
Historically, the footy community thinks some stupid shit. Just ill thought out surface level stuff that is easy to digest and repeat. We're starting to learn that because the #1 pick is unlikely to end up the best player, it's a stupid reason not to take the best player. We now know that taking outside mids in the top 10 is a mugs game. We also know not to spend top 10 picks on KPDs, as you can get them in the 20s and 30s. We know that most successful list profiles are built on an elite midfield taken at the top of the draft, a strong KPF or two, and the rest of the team are role players. We know the vast majority of players will play well in good sides, but poorly in bad sides.
We know the rough percentages of draft success. The chances of finding that A+ player is way higher in the top 5 than anywhere else. But what about later in the draft? One thing that is really obvious, is that when you're using data sets of 10 or so drafts, you can see that the closer you move to the pointy end of the draft, the more likely you will find a better quality player. It's not perfectly linear, but fugg me if it doesn't look like a Christmas tree.
So if the top 12 is the Sunset Strip, laden with stars, then the rest of the draft is The Valley. An endless wasteland of shit with occasional gems. I could have split them up by rounds, but there's an obvious flaw in that, which is the huge gaps between the top 5, and picks in their teens. This is a much wider gap than a mid 20s pick and a mid 30s pick. So why did I choose 13? My gut says the number is somewhere between 13 and 15. I chose 13 because the Eagles have two fails in Brander and Venables and I wanted them included.
So about these numbers:
This is all drafts between 2009 - 2019, from pick 13 onwards.
I've graded players A+, A, B, C, and F. Some people may disagree with some rankings (it's hard to maintain a consistent base), but it's a case of swings and roundabouts.
The AFL average number of picks in this period is 43. All clubs hover around this except Suns (26) and GWS (29). I figure it is because these clubs had more picks in the top 12 than anyone else.
The AFL dud rate, which is a percentage of picks from #13 onward that end up being duds is 76%. So let's be clear here, you have a 1 in 4 chance of a player having a reasonable career after pick 12. All the clubs hover around this 76%. GWS and Hawks have a crazy good 55%, Sydney near as good with 56%, Fremantle good with 62%, and Gold Coast the worst with 88%. The stark difference between GWS and GCS can only be down to who sits in the seat. That campaigner at the Suns needs to go to Specsavers.
The average position of each clubs draft picks is similar. The AFL average number of picks inside 30, is 10. The outliers are Melbourne only 4, Hawthorn 7, and those greedy Lions had 17. There were only 7 A+ players out of a total of 776. Fremantle had two in Neale and Fyfe.
So how do the teams rank?
Warren Buffet Level
Fremantle
Sydney
Rene Rivkin Level
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Geelong
The Index
West Coast
Adelaide
GWS
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Mum & Dad Level
Collingwood
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Nick Leeson Level
Carlton
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
St Rabble
Historically, the footy community thinks some stupid shit. Just ill thought out surface level stuff that is easy to digest and repeat. We're starting to learn that because the #1 pick is unlikely to end up the best player, it's a stupid reason not to take the best player. We now know that taking outside mids in the top 10 is a mugs game. We also know not to spend top 10 picks on KPDs, as you can get them in the 20s and 30s. We know that most successful list profiles are built on an elite midfield taken at the top of the draft, a strong KPF or two, and the rest of the team are role players. We know the vast majority of players will play well in good sides, but poorly in bad sides.
We know the rough percentages of draft success. The chances of finding that A+ player is way higher in the top 5 than anywhere else. But what about later in the draft? One thing that is really obvious, is that when you're using data sets of 10 or so drafts, you can see that the closer you move to the pointy end of the draft, the more likely you will find a better quality player. It's not perfectly linear, but fugg me if it doesn't look like a Christmas tree.
So if the top 12 is the Sunset Strip, laden with stars, then the rest of the draft is The Valley. An endless wasteland of shit with occasional gems. I could have split them up by rounds, but there's an obvious flaw in that, which is the huge gaps between the top 5, and picks in their teens. This is a much wider gap than a mid 20s pick and a mid 30s pick. So why did I choose 13? My gut says the number is somewhere between 13 and 15. I chose 13 because the Eagles have two fails in Brander and Venables and I wanted them included.
So about these numbers:
This is all drafts between 2009 - 2019, from pick 13 onwards.
I've graded players A+, A, B, C, and F. Some people may disagree with some rankings (it's hard to maintain a consistent base), but it's a case of swings and roundabouts.
The AFL average number of picks in this period is 43. All clubs hover around this except Suns (26) and GWS (29). I figure it is because these clubs had more picks in the top 12 than anyone else.
The AFL dud rate, which is a percentage of picks from #13 onward that end up being duds is 76%. So let's be clear here, you have a 1 in 4 chance of a player having a reasonable career after pick 12. All the clubs hover around this 76%. GWS and Hawks have a crazy good 55%, Sydney near as good with 56%, Fremantle good with 62%, and Gold Coast the worst with 88%. The stark difference between GWS and GCS can only be down to who sits in the seat. That campaigner at the Suns needs to go to Specsavers.
The average position of each clubs draft picks is similar. The AFL average number of picks inside 30, is 10. The outliers are Melbourne only 4, Hawthorn 7, and those greedy Lions had 17. There were only 7 A+ players out of a total of 776. Fremantle had two in Neale and Fyfe.
So how do the teams rank?
AFL Average | |
Avg. Picks | 42.83 |
A+ | 7 |
A | 32 |
B | 89 |
C | 89 |
F | 559 |
Dud rate | 76% |
Average Pos | 43.76 |
Avg. Inside #30 | 10 |
Warren Buffet Level
Fremantle
Picks | 50 | |||
A+ | 2 | Lachie Neale | Nathan Fyfe | |
A | 1 | Sean Darcy | ||
B | 3 | Ed Langdon | Alex Pearce | Matt Taberner |
C | 13 | |||
F | 31 | |||
Dud rate | 62% | |||
Average Pos | 52.90 | |||
Inside #30 | 10 |
Sydney
Picks | 43 | |||||||||||
A+ | 1 | Luke Parker | ||||||||||
A | 3 | Chad Warner | Jordan Dawson | Isaac Heeney | ||||||||
B | 11 | James Rowbottom | Tom McCartin | Darcy Cameron | George Hewett | Toby Nankervis | Aliir Aliir | Dane Rampe | Tim Membrey | Tom Mitchell | Alex Johnson | Lewis Jetta |
C | 4 | |||||||||||
F | 24 | |||||||||||
Dud rate | 56% | |||||||||||
Average Pos | 47.53 | |||||||||||
Inside #30 | 10 |
Rene Rivkin Level
Hawthorn
Picks | 38 | |||||
A+ | 0 | |||||
A | 5 | Mitchell Lewis | James Sicily | Luke Breust | Isaac Smith | Bradley Hill |
B | 4 | Marc Pittonet | Paul Puopolo | Will Day | Ryan Burton | |
C | 8 | |||||
F | 21 | |||||
Dud rate | 55% | |||||
Average Pos | 49.92 | |||||
Inside #30 | 7 |
Melbourne
Picks | 37 | |||||
A+ | 1 | Max Gawn | ||||
A | 1 | Jack Viney | ||||
B | 5 | Charlie Spargo | Bayley Fritsch | Alex Neal-Bullen | Harrison Petty | Jeremy Howe |
C | 6 | |||||
F | 24 | |||||
Dud rate | 65% | |||||
Average Pos | 49.59 | |||||
Inside #30 | 4 |
Geelong
Picks | 52 | |||||
A+ | 0 | |||||
A | 4 | Tim Kelly | Cameron Guthrie | Mitch Duncan | Tom Stewart | |
B | 5 | Sam De Koning+ | Gryan Miers | Lincoln McCarthy | Jordan Clark | Jake Kolodjashnij |
C | 3 | |||||
F | 40 | |||||
Dud rate | 77% | |||||
Average Pos | 47.96 | |||||
Inside #30 | 12 |
The Index
West Coast
Picks | 45 | |||
A+ | 0 | |||
A | 3 | Oscar Allen | Jeremy McGovern | Jack Darling |
B | 3 | Liam Ryan | Willie Rioli | Tom Barrass |
C | 4 | |||
F | 35 | |||
Dud rate | 78% | |||
Average Pos | 47.76 | |||
Inside #30 | 12 |
Adelaide
Picks | 41 | |||
A+ | 0 | |||
A | 3 | Jake Lever | Rory Laird | Jack Gunston |
B | 3 | Tom Doedee | Brodie Smith | Daniel Talia |
C | 2 | |||
F | 33 | |||
Dud rate | 80% | |||
Average Pos | 51.51 | |||
Inside #30 | 12 |
GWS
Picks | 29 | |||||||
A+ | 0 | |||||||
A | 2 | Sam Taylor | Jack Steele | |||||
B | 7 | Brent Daniels | Devon Smith | Taylor Adams | Harrison Himmelberg | Jeremy Finlayson | Jake Riccardi | Aidan Corr |
C | 4 | |||||||
F | 16 | |||||||
Dud rate | 55% | |||||||
Average Pos | 46.52 | |||||||
Inside #30 | 14 |
Western Bulldogs
Picks | 50 | |||||||
A+ | 0 | |||||||
A | 2 | Josh Dunkley | Tom Liberatore (F/S) | |||||
B | 7 | Cody Weightman | Ed Richards | Tim English | Bailey Dale | Caleb Daniel | Lachie Hunter | Liam Picken |
C | 5 | |||||||
F | 35 | |||||||
Dud rate | 70% | |||||||
Average Pos | 53.22 | |||||||
Inside #30 | 13 |
Brisbane
Picks | 53 | |||||||
A+ | 0 | |||||||
A | 2 | Harris Andrews | Elliot Yeo | |||||
B | 7 | Keidean Coleman | Zac Bailey | Jack Crisp | Brandon Starcevich | Jarrod Berry | Eric Hipwood | Daniel McStay |
C | 5 | |||||||
F | 39 | |||||||
Dud rate | 74% | |||||||
Average Pos | 46.74 | |||||||
Inside #30 | 17 |
Mum & Dad Level
Collingwood
Picks | 42 | |||
A+ | 0 | |||
A | 3 | Josh Daicos | Brodie Grundy | Jarrod Witts |
B | 2 | Brayden Maynard | Isaac Quaynor | |
C | 4 | |||
F | 33 | |||
Dud rate | 79% | |||
Average Pos | 56.05 | |||
Inside #30 | 8 |
Essendon
Picks | 42 | ||||
A+ | 1 | Zach Merrett | |||
A | 0 | ||||
B | 4 | Mason Redman | Kyle Langford | Jayden Laverde | Jordan Ridley |
C | 5 | ||||
F | 32 | ||||
Dud rate | 76% | ||||
Average Pos | 51.00 | ||||
Inside #30 | 10 |
Port Adelaide
Picks | 40 | ||||||||
A+ | 0 | ||||||||
A | 1 | Todd Marshall | |||||||
B | 8 | Miles Bergman | Mitch Georgiades | Xavier Duursma | Sam Powell-Pepper | Jarman Impey | Darcy Byrne-Jones | Karl Amon | Tom Jonas |
C | 5 | ||||||||
F | 26 | ||||||||
Dud rate | 65% | ||||||||
Average Pos | 47.45 | ||||||||
Inside #30 | 11 |
Richmond
Picks | 46 | ||||||||
A+ | 0 | ||||||||
A | 1 | Shai Bolton | |||||||
B | 8 | Jack Higgins | Noah Balta | Daniel Rioli | Jack Graham | Nathan Broad | Dan Butler | Kamdyn McIntosh | Brandon Ellis |
C | 4 | ||||||||
F | 33 | ||||||||
Dud rate | 72% | ||||||||
Average Pos | 48.57 | ||||||||
Inside #30 | 11 |
Nick Leeson Level
Carlton
Picks | 44 | ||
A+ | 1 | Patrick Cripps | |
A | 0 | ||
B | 2 | Tom De Koning | Zach Tuohy |
C | 5 | ||
F | 36 | ||
Dud rate | 82% | ||
Average Pos | 54.61 | ||
Inside #30 | 11 |
Gold Coast
Picks | 26 | |
A+ | 1 | Touk Miller |
A | 0 | |
B | 1 | Charlie Ballard |
C | 1 | |
F | 23 | |
Dud rate | 88% | |
Average Pos | 43.35 | |
Inside #30 | 11 |
North Melbourne
Picks | 47 | ||
A+ | 0 | ||
A | 1 | Nick Larkey | |
B | 2 | Ben McKay | Ben Brown |
C | 5 | ||
F | 39 | ||
Dud rate | 83% | ||
Average Pos | 48.47 | ||
Inside #30 | 11 |
St Rabble
Picks | 46 | ||||
A+ | 0 | ||||
A | 0 | ||||
B | 4 | Jade Gresham | Blake Acres | Sebastian Ross | Jamie Cripps |
C | 5 | ||||
F | 37 | ||||
Dud rate | 80% | ||||
Average Pos | 52.22 | ||||
Inside #30 | 10 |