Elasticity (or navigating the +/- matrix) - now with cake... and 20% more stats

[Son of Skeletor]

There has been a lot of discussion on this forum this season about the value of stats. Which stats can be trusted? Which stats best capture the value of a player? And so on and so forth.

One of the biggest conundrums centres around the +/- metric. On one hand this is a stat which attempts to measure the most fundamental principle in sport; namely whether Player X is actually helping his team win, or merely just racking up numbers. On the other side of the equation it is widely acknowledged that using +/- in isolation can be problematic because of the number of variables that need to be taken into account. For example which players are sharing the court with Player X? What calibre of players is Player X is mainly playing against? Etc, etc.

The purpose of this thread is to present team and league wide +/- numbers in a way in which they are not usually presented - that is within the context of what their team and teammates accomplish. Also to establish a nice, calm conversation about the pros and cons of pluses and minuses - easy, right?






I don't wish to create a major preamble to this exercise, but for clarity's sake I will put some qualifiers here up front.

This thread is an attempt to place an individual's +/- measurements within the context of his team's (or his team-mates') corresponding measurements. It won't provide the defining measurement of a player's worth, but it will hopefully achieve the aim of nullifying some of the variables which make +/- a tough stat to get a true handle on.

The title of this thread - elasticity - is a reference to how wide or narrow the disparity between a team's most valuable and least valuable +/- player is. On some teams you will note that there is a large corps of players with similarly 'high' or 'low' measurements, meaning the 'elasticity' is minimal. On other teams however you will be able to see that there can be a vast gulf between the value of their best players and their worst - a nominally top-heavy team such as this would thus have 'high elasticity'.

Please not that this is NOT a definitive ranking list of either the players in your chosen team or of the league in general. Rather it is more of an illustration of the groups and groupings of players who help or hinder your team the most. Anomalies will always be present, but so long as you place them within their proper context then hopefully the exercise will prove somewhat worthwhile.

Finally some additional qualifiers and notes:

* I've mainly included players who reached the 450/500 season minutes threshold, or roughly 10% of the team's total on court game time. The exceptions are notable players who were added late in the season, or notable players who missed out through injury of large chunks of the season.

* As always, the smaller the sample size, the more susceptible the measurements are to outside variables. In other words the less minutes a player played, the more likely his +/- could be misleading

* Starters naturally tend to play most of their minutes versus other starters, and likewise bench players against their counterparts. Keep this in mind when judging the merits of starters vs bench contributors.

* For teams who made major mid-season moves, I've tried to include both significant departures as well as arrivals, mainly as an interesting point of comparison.


Please note:

* Nominal starters have been denoted with an asterix next to their names - this has been done so a comparison between individual starters, and also starting and bench groups is easier.

* A players total minutes are represented by the percentage figure next to their name. LeBron James (at 77%) played the highest proportion of his team's minutes league-wide.

* Where a player has both a positive +/- measurement AND performs above the mean for his team, his contribution will be bolded in green. Where a player has a positive +/- figure but is below the mean for his team, the contribution will be bolded in blue. Where a player has a negative +/- but is above the mean for his team, the contribution will be bolded in purple. And finally when a player has a negative +/- AND is below the mean for his team, the contribution will be bolded in red.

* There really is no cake. Sorry.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Fred VanVleet (38%) + 12.6

*O.G. Anunoby (37%) + 10.8

Pascal Siakam (42%) + 10.3

Jakob Poeltl (38%) + 8.7

Delon Wright (36%) + 8.5

----------------------
TORONTO RAPTORS + 7.9
----------------------

C.J. Miles (34%) + 7.6

*Kyle Lowry (63%) + 7.3

*DeMar DeRozan (69%) + 7.2

*Serge Ibaka (53%) + 7.1

*Jonas Valanciunas (44%) + 5.8

Norman Powell (27%) + 0.0


Observation: The Raptors are what I'd call a 'low elasticity' team in the context of this exercise - note just how many of their rotation boast high +/- figures close to the team mean. The Raptors are also one of several teams for whom their bench outshines their starters, even though their starting group have performed pretty damn well themselves.

*Jaylen Brown (54%) + 7.5

*Al Horford (58%) + 7.1

*Aron Baynes (37%) + 7.0

*Jayson Tatum (62%) + 6.9

Marcus Smart (41%) + 6.7

*Kyrie Irving (49%) + 5.2

---------------------
BOSTON CELTICS + 3.7
---------------------

Terry Rozier (52%) + 2.5

Daniel Theis (24%) + 1.9

Shane Larkin (20%) + 1.6

Marcus Morris (36%) - 0.2

Semi Ojeleye (29%) - 5.3

Greg Monroe (13%) - 6.9

Abel Nader (13%) - 10.3


Observation: Boston has a wider range of elasticity compared to some teams, probably mainly due to injuries requiring some unready players (Ojeleye, Nader) having to step in to the rotation. It's probably premature to judge Greg Monroe given the Celtics' late season melancholy, but you can see what wonders a balanced starting line-up does for a player like Aron Baynes. Impressively the C's youngsters in Brown and Tatum have been able to help spearhead a miserly team defence.

*Joel Embiid (48%) + 11.3

Marco Belinelli (19%) + 10.8

*Robert Covington (64%) + 10.0

Ersan Ilyasova (13%) + 8.9

*J.J. Redick (54%) + 7.4

*Ben Simmons (69%) + 6.8

*Dario Saric (58%) + 6.3

---------------------------
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS + 4.5
---------------------------

Amir Johnson (30%) + 1.2

Markelle Fultz (6%) + 0.6

Timothe Luwawu (20%) - 0.1

T.J. McConnell (43%) - 1.7

Richaun Holmes (19%) - 1.8

Jerryd Bayless (23%) - 4.1

Justin Anderson (13%) - 6.1


Observation: Early in the season the Sixers were a classic 'high elasticity' team, whereby their starters built leads and their below-par bench lost them. A late-season shuffle whereby Belinelli, Ilyasova and finally Fultz were added to the rotation has not surprisingly resulted in an upswing in team fortunes. Philly's starting group obviously have excellent chemistry, as is borne out by the numbers.

*Kristaps Porzingis (39%) + 0.7

*Jarrett Jack (39%) - 0.9

Kyle O'Quinn (35%) - 1.8

*Tim Hardaway (48%) - 2.5

Frank Ntilikina (43%) - 2.7

------------------------
NEW YORK KNICKS - 3.6
------------------------

Doug McDermott (30%) - 3.7

Damyean Dotson (12%) - 4.4

Michael Beasley (42%) - 4.9

*Enes Kanter (46%) - 5.1

Trey Burke (20%) - 5.2

*Courtney Lee (58%) - 5.4

Lance Thomas (34%) - 6.3

Emmanuel Mudiay (12%) - 14.1


Observation: I dunno if I'd call the Knicks either a high or low 'elasticity' team, but obviously they're highly dependent on Porzingis. I'd wager that the +/- figures of a number of his fellow starters, not to mention the fortunes of the entire team, plummeted after he got injured mid-season. It's tough to gauge the worth of Trey Burke's otherwise impressive statistics on an already crappy team, but it's safe to say that poor old Mudiay's figure is not an aberration.

*DeMarre Carroll (55%) - 2.0

Quincy Acy (34%) - 2.0

*Spencer Dinwiddie (58%) - 2.3

*Allan Crabbe (55%) - 2.9

Joe Harris (50%) - 3.5

Dante Cunningham (11%) - 3.7

---------------------
BROOKLYN NETS - 3.7
---------------------

*Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (48%) - 3.8

*Jarrett Allen (36%) - 4.1

Nik Stauskas (12%) - 4.2

Caris LaVert (47%) - 6.1

DeAngelo Russell (31%) - 7.1

Jahlil Okafor (8%) - 20.9


Observation: The Nets, with no real stars and little discernible gulf in talent between their starters and bench players, definitely fall under the title of a 'low elasticity' team. Like many teams, it is naturally the more mature players who (as a rule of thumb) fare better in these measurements. DeAngelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor's preceding reputations as highly flawed lottery picks continues to be well-deserved.



NB

* Denotes nominal starters

(%) is the percentage of the team's total minutes for the season played

+/- equals the number of points per 100 possessions the player (or team) is on average ahead or behind throughout the season (with 0 equating to breaking even). NBA teams played an average of 97.3 possessions per game.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

CENTRAL DIVISION

*George Hill (17%) + 9.3

Kyle Korver (40%) + 7.6

Larry Nance (13%) + 5.9

Jeff Green (46%) + 4.1

Cedi Osman (17%) + 3.9

Jose Calderon (23%) + 3.6

Dwyane Wade (27%) + 3.0

*LeBron James (77%) + 1.6

Rodney Hood (13%) + 1.5

--------------------------
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS + 1.0
--------------------------

*Kevin Love (42%) + 0.6

Jordan Clarkson (16%) - 0.6

*J.R. Smith (57%) - 2.2

Tristan Thompson (27%) - 4.2

*Jae Crowder (34%) - 4.9

Derrick Rose (8%) - 7.3

Isaiah Thomas (10%) - 16.2


Observation: No team better illustrates the difficulties of understanding +/- better than Cleveland. Absolutely horrid chemistry among their starting group in the early season sent the +/- figures of career stars such as LeBron and Love plummeting while the Cav reserves more or less held the fort. Then a massive mid-season clear-house flipped everything on its head again. On first glance the arrivals have outperformed the departures; that is to say that Cleveland's chemistry got better. George Hill represents Cleveland's 4th - and so far best - attempt to find a suitable starter at point guard this season alone.

*Victor Oladipo (65%) + 6.5

*Thaddeus Young (66%) + 4.5

*Myles Turner (47%) + 3.7

*Darren Collison (51%) + 3.5

*Bojan Bogdanovic (62%) + 2.1

---------------------
INDIANA PACERS + 1.4
---------------------

Domantas Sabonis (46%) + 1.2

Cory Joseph (56%) + 0.1

Trevor Booker (7%) - 0.4

Al Jefferson (12%) - 1.6

Lance Stephenson (47%) - 2.9

Joe Young (14%) - 6.9

T.J. Leaf (12%) - 10.2


Observation: If Cleveland represent the challenge in understanding this exercise, Indiana are the opposite; a stable roster where the most effective players start, the bench players support and the ranking order roughly translates to what observers would expect. Clearly Oladipo has enjoyed a breakout season whichever way you dice it, but the likes of Collison and Bogdanovic have been surprisingly effective pick-ups as well.

*John Henson (50%) + 4.3

*Eric Bledsoe (56%) + 3.9

*Giannis Antetokounmpo (70%) + 2.8

Tyler Zeller (10%) + 2.8

Jason Terry (20%) + 1.5

*Khris Middleton (75%) + 1.2

------------------------
MILWAUKEE BUCKS - 0.3
------------------------

*Tony Snell (52%) - 1.1

Malcolm Brogdon (36%) - 1.4

Sterling Brown (20%) - 2.3

Jabari Parker (19%) - 3.5

Matt Dellavedova (18%) - 4.9

Thon Maker (31%) - 5.6


Observation: Milwaukee is a case where its top-heavy roster and lack of depth has actually succeeded in giving its final +/- numbers the appearance of somewhat low 'elasticity'. The reality is that way too much playing time for the Thon Makers of this world have helped drag the numbers of Giannis and Middleton - the guys who have to play with the bench to avoid absolute disaster - back down to earth. Tony Snell's ineffectiveness has been shown up here where he has been beaten out by a 40-year old in Terry. Tyler Zeller was a nice late addition for the Bucks though.

Langston Galloway (22%) + 3.8

Luke Kennard (37%) + 3.4

Blake Griffin (21%) + 1.8

*Reggie Jackson (30%) + 1.1

Anthony Tolliver (44%) + 0.8

Ish Smith (52%) + 0.7

Eric Moreland (20%) + 0.4

-----------------------
DETROIT PISTONS - 0.1
-----------------------

*Reggie Bullock (44%) - 0.2

Stanley Johnson (48%) - 0.6

*Andre Drummond (66%) - 1.2

*Tobias Harris (40%) - 2.0

*Avery Bradley (32%) - 4.6

James Ennis (14%) - 5.0


Observation: The Pistons, like Cleveland, have a slightly screwy and counter-intuitive result. Again, like the Cavs, the fault lay mainly in the atrocious chemistry and porous defence within the starting group prior to the trade deadline. The reserves were pretty solid for the Pistons all year round, especially defensively, which is why you see some unlikely names above the mean here.

Nikola Mirotic (16%) + 3.8

Bobby Portis (41%) - 3.0

Noah Vonleh (10%) - 3.4

*Justin Holiday (57%) - 4.8

David Nwaba (41%) - 6.5

*Robin Lopez (43%) - 6.6

---------------------
CHICAGO BULLS - 7.1
---------------------

Denzel Valentine (53%) - 7.4

Jerian Grant (42%) - 7.8

Cameron Payne (15%) - 8.1

*Lauri Markkanen (51%) - 9.3

*Kris Dunn (38%) - 9.4

Paul Zipser (21%) - 13.3

*Zach Lavine (17%) - 13.4

Cristiano Felicio (25%) - 17.8


Observation: Not much you can do with a team built to lose, but from this table you can see why Chicago either traded (Mirotic) or 'rested' (Holiday, Lopez) others. If you want to lose, throwing a bunch of kids together is the most foolproof strategy there is, as the names below the mean show. Come to think of it, it's a miracle this team even won 27 games. Clearly more tankmaster Felicio was needed.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

Kelly Olynyk (45%) + 6.2

Wayne Ellington (51%) + 3.3

Justise Winslow (42%) + 2.6

Tyler Johnson (52%) + 2.0

*Josh Richardson (67%) + 1.1

*James Johnson (49%) + 0.5

----------------
MIAMI HEAT + 0.5
----------------

*Goran Dragic (60%) + 0.4

Bam Adebayo (34%) + 0.4

*Hassan Whiteside (34%) - 2.4

Dwyane Wade (12%) - 4.7

*Dion Waiters (23%) - 5.0


Observation: Chalk the Heat up as another team for whom poor starting chemistry has been salvaged by a dominant bench. In fairness Miami boasts as even a bunch of talent as any team in the league, so the line between starters and reserves is often blurred. Whiteside's late-season grousing about lack of playing time seems rather misplaced in view of the table above. Meanwhile D-Wade is... clearly not what he once was. Like many teams, Miami is much more effective when they're able to space the floor properly.

*Otto Porter (61%) + 5.2

*John Wall (36%) + 4.1

Tomas Satoransky (41%) + 2.6

*Brad Beal (75%) + 2.5

*Marcin Gortat (52%) + 2.0

Ian Mahinmi (29%) + 2.0

------------------------------
WASHINGTON WIZARDS + 0.6
------------------------------

*Markieff Morris (50%) + 0.5

Mike Scott (35%) - 1.1

Kelly Oubre (56%) - 1.9

Tim Frazier (21%) - 3.7

Jodie Meeks (28%) - 5.2


Observation: The Wizards' bench was slightly better this year than last season's abomination, although that's not saying much. While Satoransky proved to be a real find, Oubre disappointed when given the chance at an extended role in Wall's absence. Washington probably won't miss Meeks much during his drug suspension. Clearly the Wizards' starting group remains somewhat formidable; whether they can rediscover their chemistry in the playoffs remains to be seen.

*Kemba Walker (69%) + 3.8

*Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (47%) + 2.2

Dwayne Bacon (18%) + 1.9

*Marvin Williams (51%) + 1.8

Cody Zeller (16%) + 1.7

*Dwight Howard (62%) + 1.6

Jeremy Lamb (50%) + 1.3

---------------------------
CHARLOTTE HORNETS + 0.3
---------------------------

*Nic Batum (50%) - 0.2

Frank Kaminsky (46%) - 2.2

Michael Carter-Williams (21%) - 2.9

Treveon Graham (26%) - 3.6

Malik Monk (22%) - 11.8


Observation: The Hornets were a pretty classic 'low elasticity' team outside the outlier of young Monk. In fact their +/- spread indicates that they really underachieved in finishing 10 games below .500. Dwight was OK considering they gave up nothing to acquire him, but boy that Batum contract looks like an overpay. Cody Zeller remains somewhat underrated, the Hornets certainly missed him. Not surprisingly, looking at the squad, Charlotte still struggles with spacing and an over-reliance on the indefatigable Walker is telling.

Khem Birch (15%) + 0.3

Marreese Speights (17%) + 0.1

*Nikola Vucevic (43%) - 1.6

*Aaron Gordon (48%) - 2.6

Shelvin Mack (35%) - 2.8

Terrence Ross (15%) - 3.6

*Evan Fournier (47%) - 3.8

D.J. Augustin (45%) - 3.8

----------------------
ORLANDO MAGIC - 4.9
----------------------

Wesley Iwundu (26%) - 5.3

Arron Afflalo (17%) - 6.3

Mario Hezonja (42%) - 6.5

*Jonathon Simmons (52%) - 7.2

Jonathan Issac (14%) - 7.7

*Elfrid Payton (32%) - 8.0

Bismack Biyombo (38%) - 12.8


Observation: Sheesh, what a mess. Let's start with the obvious: the Magic did the right thing in getting rid of Payton before he was due a payday. They must wish they could go back in time and do the same with Biyombo though. Positives? Well, Orlando should be cautiously optimistic with Birch's late-season play... but yeah, tough times for the pin-striped inclined. To be fair, injuries ruined whatever chemistry had developed for Vogel's Orlando - when Jonathon Simmons leads your team in minutes, you're going to have a bad time.

Isaiah Taylor (30%) - 2.2

*Ersan Ilyasova (30%) - 3.5

*Kent Bazemore (45%) - 4.1

Mike Muscala (27%) - 4.5

Thomas Delaney (26%) - 5.0

*Dewayne Dedmon (39%) - 5.1

---------------------
ATLANTA HAWKS - 5.6
---------------------

*Dennis Schroeder (53%) - 6.7

John Collins (45%) - 6.8

Miles Plumlee (23%) - 7.1

*Taurean Prince (63%) - 7.2

Tyler Dorsey (25%) - 8.7

Marco Belinelli (31%) - 10.2


Observation: Nothing much to see here, the Hawks were always going to be bad. One wonders for the future whether building around Schroeder and Prince in particular is the wisest path to take given their respective struggles defensively. Atlanta will be feeling pretty gypped that they were unable to extract an asset in return for Ilyasova, who has helped the surging Sixers significantly. What remains in Georgia is the blankest of blank canvases for someone to paint with; whether that someone is Mike Budenholzer remains to be seen.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

Nene Hilario (19%) + 16.6

Eric Gordon (54%) + 13.0

*Chris Paul (47%) + 13.0

P.J. Tucker (58%) + 11.3

*James Harden (65%) + 10.4

Luc MBah a Moute (40%) + 10.0

*Clint Capela (51%) + 9.6

------------------------
HOUSTON ROCKETS + 8.6
------------------------

*Trevor Ariza (57%) + 8.1

*Ryan Anderson (44%) + 6.3

Gerald Green (24%) + 3.8

Joe Johnson (13%) + 2.0

Tarik Black (14%) - 7.6


Observation: The Rockets had a large cluster of players contributing rather large +/- figures, as befits a team who won 65 games. This makes them nominally a low 'elasticity' bunch... well, with the exception of poor old Tarik Black anyway. You can see the improvements made in Houston's defence with the addition of some key figures above the mean, especially on the wings. It's quite apparent that the Rockets are no one-man team.

Nikola Mirotic (22%) + 5.6

*Jrue Holiday (73%) + 5.1

*Anthony Davis (68%) + 5.1

*E'Twaun Moore (65%) + 3.0

Emeka Okafor (9%) + 1.5

Ian Clark (36%) + 1.4

-------------------------------
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS + 1.3
-------------------------------

*DeMarcus Cousins (43%) + 1.2

Darius Miller (49%) + 0.7

*Rajon Rondo (43%) + 0.4

Dante Cunningham (28%) + 0.4

Jameer Nelson (22%) - 1.8

Cheick Diallo (15%) - 7.1



Observation: Pretty low elasticity with this eclectic bunch, but the late-season addition of Mirotic was evidently super important in the playoff drive. The role players managed to help - or avoid hindering - just enough to keep the Pelicans' heads above water. Jrue Holiday's importance to New Orleans should not be underestimated.

*Dejounte Murray (44%) + 6.0

*LaMarcus Aldridge (64%) + 5.5

*Kyle Anderson (50%) + 4.2

Kawhi Leonard (5%) + 3.8

Davis Bertans (28%) + 3.7

Bryn Forbes (38%) + 3.5

---------------------------
SAN ANTONIO SPURS + 3.1
---------------------------

Patty Mills (53%) + 2.4

*Danny Green (45%) + 2.4

Rudy Gay (31%) + 2.4

*Pau Gasol (46%) + 1.3

Manu Ginobili (33%) + 0.8

Tony Parker (27%) - 1.3



Observation: Well here it is, incontrovertible proof that Father Time claims even the wiliest of vets. Looking at some of the names above the mean here, the wonder is not that San Antonio had their streak of 50-win seasons snapped, but rather that they ever got close at all. Chalk 47 wins up to some rugged defence and a career year from LaMarcus Aldridge.

Devin Harris (20%) + 6.8

Doug MCDermott (15%) + 2.3

Salah Mejiri (18%) + 2.1

Dwight Powell (42%) + 0.5

Yogi Ferrell (58%) + 0.3

J.J. Barea (40%) - 1.0

-------------------------
DALLAS MAVERICKS - 3.2
-------------------------

*Dirk Nowitzki (48%) - 3.6

*Maxi Kleber (30%) - 4.3

*Harrison Barnes (67%) - 7.5

*Dennis Smith (52%) - 8.0

*Wes Matthews (54%) - 8.1

Nerlens Noel (12%) - 12.0



Observation: Dallas are another of those teams where it is starkly illustrated that playing against starting groups (and stars) is a vastly different proposition to playing against bench mobs. Still, someone like Yogi Ferrell plays enough minutes to determine that his place above the team mean is not altogether misleading. Dirk is hanging in there OK, all things considered, while Smith took his rookie lumps. Meanwhile Nerlens Noel bet on himself to put together a contract season... welp.

Tyreke Evans (41%) + 0.9

*Mike Conley (9%) - 0.4

Mario Chalmers (36%) - 2.8

*Dillon Brooks (60%) - 5.4

--------------------------
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - 6.5
--------------------------

*Marc Gasol (61%) - 6.6

Chandler Parsons (18%) - 7.1

Deyonta Davis (24%) - 7.4

Jarrell Martin (42%) - 7.6

*Andrew Harrison (34%) - 7.8

*JaMychal Green (39%) - 8.5

Wayne Selden (18%) - 8.5

Ben McLemore (28%) - 13.8



Observation: Yuck. Remember when the Griz started the season 5-1, with wins over the Rockets (twice), the Dubs and the Pelicans? Nope, I don't either. Tyreke Evans put on his Superman cape for a few weeks, but was then promptly sent on holiday. As for Ben McLemore... sad trombone.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

NORTHWEST DIVISION

*Damian Lillard (68%) + 5.9

*Al-Farouq Aminu (52%) + 5.1

Ed Davis (37%) + 4.3

Pat Connaughton (38%) + 4.0

*Jusuf Nurkic (53%) + 3.9

Shabazz Napier (39%) + 3.5

---------------------------------
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS + 2.7
---------------------------------

Zach Collins (26%) + 2.4

*C.J. McCollum (74%) + 2.3

*Maurice Harkless (32%) + 0.4

Evan Turner (51%) - 0.8

Noah Vonleh (12%) - 1.4


Observation: No surprise that the Blazers are a relatively closely clustered bunch when it comes to +/-, as befits a roster where roles are sharply defined. Lillard (and Portland's) newfound emphasis in defence is reflected in his excellent season, while unsung heroes such as Aminu and Nurkic make their impact at that end of the floor as well. Zach Collins contributed well for a rookie, but Evan Turner still makes about twice as much money as he should.

*Andre Roberson (26%) + 10.7

Josh Heustis (25%) + 6.6

*Russell Westbrook (74%) + 6.3

*Steven Adams (63%) + 5.8

*Carmelo Anthony (63%) + 5.1

Corey Brewer (13%) + 3.7

---------------------------------
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER + 3.5
---------------------------------

*Paul George (73%) + 3.3

Jerami Grant (42%) + 0.8

Alex Abrines (29%) + 0.1

Raymond Felton (34%) - 1.8

Patrick Patterson (32%) - 3.3

Terrance Ferguson (19%) - 7.0



Observation: Behold, ye who doubt the value of Roberson to the Thunder. Josh Heustis's place well above the mean should certainly raise eyebrows too. Apart from that, no real surprises... OKC are heavily reliant on their starters (or star power) given the rather threadbare nature of their bench. Paul George is probably the classic case of a player whose +/- figures are pulled down due to having to play firefighter with the bench.

Raul Neto (13%) + 11.3

Royce O'Neale (29%) + 10.1

Jae Crowder (19%) + 9.7

*Rudy Gobert (46%) + 9.0

*Donovan Mitchell (67%) + 7.0

*Joe Ingles (65%) + 4.9

*Ricky Rubio (57%) + 4.7

Thabo Sefolosha (20%) + 4.7

----------------
UTAH JAZZ + 4.5
----------------

Ekpe Udoh (20%) + 4.1

*Derrick Favors (55%) + 3.9

Jonas Jerebko (29%) + 3.4

Alec Burks (27%) + 0.0

Rodney Hood (27%) - 4.0

Joe Johnson (18%) - 7.9


Observation: The Jazz are another complicated bunch to figure out, but by dividing their season into two parts the picture becomes clearer. Like Cleveland their starters struggled woefully for chemistry early, while the likes of Hood and Johnson were clearly not the answer at the wing. One under-the-radar mid-season trade, the return of Gobert and a tweak in chemistry later, and Utah was a whole new team. Some surprising names above the mean again here; there's a lot of value for money on this roster.

*Jimmy Butler (55%) + 8.6

Tyus Jones (37%) + 6.3

*Karl-Anthony Towns (73%) + 6.2

*Taj Gibson (69%) + 4.9

*Andrew Wiggins (76%) + 3.4

*Jeff Teague (58%) + 2.8

------------------------------------
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES + 2.3
------------------------------------

Nemanja Bjelica (34%) + 0.6

Jamal Crawford (42%) - 5.1

Gorgui Dieng (34%) - 6.3

Shabazz Muhammad (8%) - 20.1



Observation: Chalk the Timberwolves down in the OKC/Milwaukee/Philly school of shallow rosters. Basically the starters try to undo the damage caused by an incompetent bench. Actually that's slightly unfair to the likes of Jones and Bjelica, who have proven themselves capable rotation players... but that's still not enough. Minny badly missed Butler during his absence; they won 60% of games he played, but only 40% of those he missed.

*Nikola Jokic (61%) + 5.0

*Paul Millsap (29%) + 4.3

*Jamal Murray (64%) + 3.7

*Gary Harris (58%) + 3.3

------------------------
DENVER NUGGETS + 1.6
------------------------

*Wilson Chandler (59%) + 1.5

Will Barton (67%) + 1.3

Trey Lyles (35%) + 0.0

Mason Plumlee (36%) - 0.2

Devin Harris (13%) - 0.6

Torney Craig (16%) - 1.1

Malik Beasley (15%) - 1.4

Kenneth Faried (12%) - 5.2

Emmanuel Mudiay (19%) - 9.0


Observation: There have been different schools of thought about the merits of Denver's season, but when Will Barton leads your team in minutes it's fair to say that 46 wins is not unimpressive. Injuries to key players and early season minutes for misfits such as Faried and Mudiay left the Nuggets behind the ball and playing catch-up in the chase for a playoff place. If Denver can get their top eight or nine players healthy and playing solid ball then there's a lot to work with here.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

PACIFIC DIVISION

To come.

Sam Dekker (22%) + 4.5

Montrezl Harrell (33%) + 2.6

Blake Griffin (29%) + 1.4

*Milos Teodosic (29%) + 1.4

Jawun Evans (20%) + 1.4

Lou Williams (66%) + 1.0

*Danilo Gallinari (17%) + 0.3

Tyrone Wallace (22%) + 0.2

------------------------------
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS + 0.1
------------------------------

Wesley Johnson (38%) - 0.7

C.J. Williams (18%) - 1.0

Sindarius Thornwell (29%) - 1.4

*Austin Rivers (52%) - 1.7

*DeAndre Jordan (62%) - 2.5

*Tobias Harris (28%) - 3.1


Observation: The Clippers are obviously hard to get a handle on in this exercise, given the amount of roster turnover and injuries over the course of the season. Their bench guys, led by a trio of ex-Rockets did pretty well, and some of the other newcomers pressed into service certainly didn't disgrace themselves. DeAndre Jordan's place well below the mean doesn't look pretty, but again this was not the season to judge his value on.

Ivica Zubac (10%) + 4.4

Alex Caruso (14%) + 0.6

Isaiah Thomas (11%) + 0.4

*Lonzo Ball (45%) - 0.8

*Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (62%) - 1.1

Tyler Ennis (17%) - 1.1

*Julius Randle (55%) - 1.3

Jordan Clarkson (32%) - 1.5

---------------------------
LOS ANGELES LAKERS - 1.5
---------------------------

Larry Nance (23%) - 2.0

Kyle Kuzma (60%) - 2.2

Josh Hart (37%) - 2.2

*Brook Lopez (44%) - 2.6

*Brandon Ingram (50%) - 3.2



Observation: Even allowing for the mid-season trades and some injury lay-offs, the Lakers were a pretty closely clustered grouping. Overall the Lakers were a solid defensive team, but young hopes Ingram, Kuzma and Randle came in well below the mean on that metric. Lonzo Ball wasn't a total train-wreck, but will require careful roster approach if choosing to build around him. Zubac is an interesting project, but beware the small sample size when projecting.

Frank Mason III (25%) - 1.7

Buddy Hield (51%) - 4.0

Vince Carter (26%) - 4.3

Skal Labissiere (31%) - 5.0

--------------------------
SACRAMENTO KINGS - 7.4
--------------------------

Justin Jackson (38%) - 7.9

Garrett Temple (41%) - 8.0

*Willie Cauley-Stein (52%) - 8.1

Kosta Koufos (35%) - 8.6

*Bogdan Bogdanovic (55%) - 9.0

*De'Aaron Fox (51%) - 10.4

*George Hill (29%) - 11.6

*Zach Randolph (38%) - 12.4



Observation: Here's a team that should be top three in the lottery, but the Kangz fail even at tanking. Sactown fans probably shouldn't get too low or too high with their youngsters, as many were victims of playing too much as starters (see Fox), or too much with the wrong line-ups (see anyone who played with Z-Bo). Like several teams, most of the names at or above the mean come off the bench, where the competition is less exalted. The Kings clearly need more star power... too bad about their draft position.

Jared Dudley (17%) - 0.8

Mike James (17%) - 1.9

Alex Len (35%) - 8.7

--------------------
PHOENIX SUNS - 9.3
--------------------

*Marquese Chriss (39%) - 9.4

Tyler Ulis (42%) - 9.6

*T.J. Warren (54%) - 10.0

*Devin Booker (47%) - 10.1

*Tyson Chandler (29%) - 10.6

Dragan Bender (53%) - 11.1

Troy Daniels (41%) - 12.3

Josh Jackson (50%) - 12.7

*Elfrid Payton (14%) - 21.6



Observation: Speaking of horrible teams, here's another. At least the Suns managed to outshine the rest in the tanking stakes and give themselves a real shot at pairing another special player with the over-worked Booker. When an overweight Jared Dudley outshines the rest of the team in this metric, you know you're in dire need of help. Elfrid Payton's numbers again scream "buyer beware".

 

[fidstar]

<post incoming>

 

[Warsaw]

This is such a blog boy post.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

This is such a blog boy post.

Haha, touche'!

Thunder stolen (headlines Seattle fans would like to see)

<post incoming>

 

[nahnah]

I like any thread that says Cedi is good

 

[Son of Skeletor]

I like any thread that says Cedi is good

Welcome to the Ottoman Empire.

 

[fidstar]

One of the weird stat lines in 2018 was that LeBron had a +/- of -8.3 in January. Terrible time for those in Cleveland.

I feel so sorry for them.

 

[fidstar]

Why'd you elect to have a thread about +/- over something like on/offs?

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Why'd you elect to have a thread about +/- over something like on/offs?

Same thing in essence, working from the same hymn sheet really.

I will add the on/off for every team later, can be read in conjunction with the above.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

OK, teams are now all done with the exception of the Dubs... will get on that when the page is available. Sorry for the delay.

I'll post the on/off numbers alongside the +/- numbers in the coming days; obviously there will be a lot of overlap and symmetry.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Zubac has always impressed me when I’ve seen him. I think he could be a solid bench contributor. A bit of instant offence Corliss Williamson style

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Zubac has always impressed me when I’ve seen him. I think he could be a solid bench contributor. A bit of instant offence Corliss Williamson style

There's definitely something to work with there.

Gotta be really hard being a young big in today's game though, it's a bit like being a Blockbuster Video or Toys R Us employee.