finals run home..

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fishalenko

Rookie
Jun 25, 2008
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Mildura
AFL Club
Essendon
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Robinvale FC
Are there any teams outside the eight this year that look like making the finals with there run home? whats the likely result of the final 8?
 
These sides are currently sitting 4th to 12th and 5 of them will take up positions 4-8 at the end of R22.

Comparing their last 4 games (listed team = favourites where opponent is in bold):

Swans: Freo (SCG), Geelong (ANZ Stadium), Collingwood (TD), Lions (SCG)

Prediction: win 3/4: finish on 54 points

North: Bulldogs (TD), Carlton (TD), Geelong (SS), Port (MCG)

Prediction: win 2/4, finish on 50 points

Crows: Richmond (AAMI), Essendon (TD), Saints (TD), Bulldogs (AAMI)

Prediction: win 2/4 - finish on 48 points

Saints: Pies (MCG), Freo (Subi), Adelaide (TD), Essendon (TD)

Prediction: win 4/4 - finish on 56 points

Collingwood: Saints (MCG), Port (AAMI), Sydney (TD), Freo (Subi)

Prediction: win 2/4 - finish on 44 points

Lions: Hawthorn (Aurora), Bulldogs (Gabba), Carlton (Gabba), Sydney (SCG)

Prediction: win 1/4 - finish on 40 points

Richmond: Crows (AAMI), Hawks (MCG), Freo (MCG), Melbourne (MCG)

Prediction: win 2/4 - finish on 42 points

Essendon: Eagles (Subi), Adelaide (TD), Bulldogs (TD), Saints (TD)

Prediction: win 1/4 - finish on 36 points

Carlton: Port (TD), North Melb (TD), Brisbane (Gabba), Hawks (TD)

Prediction: win 1/4 - finish on 36 points

Thus producing:

4th: Saints (56)
5th: Swans (54)
6th: North (50)
7th: Crows (48)
8th: Pies (44)
9th: Richmond (42)
10th: Lions (40)
11th: Carlton (36)
12th: Dons (36)

Obviously, the above will be shown to be utter bunk by 11pm Saturday, but the predictions are as per what I'd expect the favourites to be, even if clearly some "upsets" will occur.

Pies now vulnerable too - esp the Port and Freo away games in R20 and 22

Massive swing games are:

Saints v Pies this week
Swans v Pies in R21
Crows v Tigers this Sunday (a Tiger win would mean they should then expect to play finals given the above)
 

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well i reckon on current form we will win 2 out of our last 4.....west coast we should win and adelaide have never beaten us in melb since they entered the league.....the only game we would be underdogs would be against the dogs.....so if we keep winning and a couple of results go our way u never know.....

but im happy at least we are having a go and are on the right track......:D
 
Essendon probably won't make the finals but we have all the momentum ATM. Clubs sitting above us don't have momentum and confidence like we do and might drop games they shouldn't, which could create a pathway for Essendon do make the finals.
 
Essendon probably won't make the finals but we have all the momentum ATM. Clubs sitting above us don't have momentum and confidence like we do and might drop games they shouldn't, which could create a pathway for Essendon do make the finals.

Essendon are interesting.

They've won 6 of the last 7. Lost 8 in a row before that!

Last 7 games:
2 current top 8 sides (Bris and Coll, both wins)

8 before that:
6 games against current top 8 sides, no wins.

It suggests that they wouldn't have too much impact if they were to make the finals and that it might be in the long run if they finish JUST outside and give them a real hunger for 2009.

However - could be great for them if they sneak in and play a falling club like Collingwood or Brissie in the first week.
 
These sides are currently sitting 4th to 12th and 5 of them will take up positions 4-8 at the end of R22.

Comparing their last 4 games (listed team = favourites where opponent is in bold):

Swans: Freo (SCG), Geelong (ANZ Stadium), Collingwood (TD), Lions (SCG)

Prediction: win 3/4: finish on 54 points

North: Bulldogs (TD), Carlton (TD), Geelong (SS), Port (MCG)

Prediction: win 2/4, finish on 50 points

Crows: Richmond (AAMI), Essendon (TD), Saints (TD), Bulldogs (AAMI)

Prediction: win 2/4 - finish on 48 points

Saints: Pies (MCG), Freo (Subi), Adelaide (TD), Essendon (TD)

Prediction: win 4/4 - finish on 56 points

Collingwood: Saints (MCG), Port (AAMI), Sydney (TD), Freo (Subi)

Prediction: win 2/4 - finish on 44 points

Lions: Hawthorn (Aurora), Bulldogs (Gabba), Carlton (Gabba), Sydney (SCG)

Prediction: win 1/4 - finish on 40 points

Richmond: Crows (AAMI), Hawks (MCG), Freo (MCG), Melbourne (MCG)

Prediction: win 2/4 - finish on 42 points

Essendon: Eagles (Subi), Adelaide (TD), Bulldogs (TD), Saints (TD)

Prediction: win 1/4 - finish on 36 points

Carlton: Port (TD), North Melb (TD), Brisbane (Gabba), Hawks (TD)

Prediction: win 1/4 - finish on 36 points

Thus producing:

4th: Saints (56)
5th: Swans (54)
6th: North (50)
7th: Crows (48)
8th: Pies (44)
9th: Richmond (42)
10th: Lions (40)
11th: Carlton (36)
12th: Dons (36)

Obviously, the above will be shown to be utter bunk by 11pm Saturday, but the predictions are as per what I'd expect the favourites to be, even if clearly some "upsets" will occur.

Pies now vulnerable too - esp the Port and Freo away games in R20 and 22

Massive swing games are:

Saints v Pies this week
Swans v Pies in R21
Crows v Tigers this Sunday (a Tiger win would mean they should then expect to play finals given the above)

i had fairly similar results to that although i had essendon beating adelaide (due to the fact they have never beaten us in melbourne and that we got within 5 points of them when we played them at AAMI when they had burton etc still in the side) and i had collingwood losing to port...

if this did occur then essendon would be still alive in round 22 when they play the saints
 
I did mine and it looks very interesting.

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Perc Pts
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2503 1709 146.46 84
2 Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2356 1897 124.20 72
3 W Bulldogs 22 17 4 1 2478 2060 120.29 70
4 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 2042 1913 106.74 52
5 Sydney 22 12 9 1 2072 1821 113.78 50
6 Nth Melb 22 12 9 1 2060 2088 98.66 50
7 Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2275 2082 109.27 48
8 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2195 2423 90.59 44
---------------------------------------------------
9 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2222 2335 95.16 42
10 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2218 2167 102.35 40
11 St Kilda 22 10 12 0 2029 2071 97.97 40
12 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2154 2264 95.14 36
13 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 2003 2106 95.11 28
14 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2055 2232 92.07 24
15 West Coast 22 3 19 0 1725 2456 70.24 12
16 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1772 2535 69.90 12

Wow.... so Saints have won their last game for 2008? Could happen I s'pose
 

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i have it this way:

Predicted Ladder
# Team Pl W L D PF PA Perc Pts
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2613 1684 155.17 84
2 Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 2426 1882 128.91 72
3 W Bulldogs 22 17 4 1 2488 2050 121.37 70
4 St Kilda 22 14 8 0 2119 2016 105.11 56
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2067 1781 116.06 54
6 Nth Melb 22 11 10 1 2030 2138 94.95 46
7 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1972 1968 100.20 44
8 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2220 2398 92.58 44
9 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2192 2315 94.69 42
10 Collingwood 22 10 12 0 2240 2117 105.81 40
11 Bris Lions 22 10 12 0 2213 2182 101.42 40
12 Carlton 22 10 12 0 2169 2239 96.87 40
13 Port Adel 22 7 15 0 2040 2217 92.02 28
14 Fremantle 22 5 17 0 1938 2116 91.59 20
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1747 2560 68.24 12
16 West Coast 22 3 19 0 1695 2506 67.64 12

Its uncanny - the tigers love finishing 9th!
 
Essendon are interesting.

They've won 6 of the last 7. Lost 8 in a row before that!

Last 7 games:
2 current top 8 sides (Bris and Coll, both wins)

8 before that:
6 games against current top 8 sides, no wins.

It suggests that they wouldn't have too much impact if they were to make the finals and that it might be in the long run if they finish JUST outside and give them a real hunger for 2009.

However - could be great for them if they sneak in and play a falling club like Collingwood or Brissie in the first week.


Selective stats - our injury lkist was shocking during that run pointing to our real lack of depth (which was the big if for us at the start fo the season).

While Geelong and Hawthorn are a huge cut above us, the rest hold no fears, provided we can get a few players back.

amazed how many think we will lose to Adelaide - do people realise our head to hea with them overall and in Melbourne? 15-10 overall with 10-0 in Melb.
 
amazed how many think we will lose to Adelaide - do people realise our head to hea with them overall and in Melbourne? 15-10 overall with 10-0 in Melb.

selective stats from you too. history means bugger all. the better team will win. and without porps and burton, that's probably you.

but let me ask, who's the only team to beat you in your run of 7 games since you got all your injured players back? yet that team can't beat adelaide and you can?

but that doesn't serve your purpose of wanting to have that team finish 9th...
 
selective stats from you too. history means bugger all. the better team will win. and without porps and burton, that's probably you.

but let me ask, who's the only team to beat you in your run of 7 games since you got all your injured players back? yet that team can't beat adelaide and you can?

but that doesn't serve your purpose of wanting to have that team finish 9th...


You fell over the line against us - we lost it lets face it.

And does playing one team matter?

By your logic - Freo are better than Adelaide.
 
I understand that Adelaide haven't beaten Essendon in Melbourne ever, however 7 of the last 8 matches the 2 teams have played have been at AAMI. So most of those 10 were in the Crows early years where Essendon was a powerhouse.

It is a mental thing- we beat you last year when we were very avg and you played finals - yes it was Sheedys game but yes it also shows that we play well against you.

Lets face it, we lost by 5 pts to you earlier this year when I was expecting a schellacking - and we beat you twice last year.

Are they selective stats? Oh and throw in now Porps or Burton or gone (I don't think Moran will kick bag after bag) and I struggle to see you breaking your hoodoo against us.

I'm more worried about this week against WC.
 
The vast majority of games coming are pretty much 50/50, it's really quite strange how it has worked out, but it also makes trying to belittle others (often biased) opinions on who will win them pretty much stupid and pointless. Ladder predictions are fun and all but trying to read too much in to them is idiotic :)

p.s

Geelong
WB
Hawks
Swans
Saints
Kangas
Crows
Pies
 
It is a mental thing- we beat you last year when we were very avg and you played finals - yes it was Sheedys game but yes it also shows that we play well against you.

Lets face it, we lost by 5 pts to you earlier this year when I was expecting a schellacking - and we beat you twice last year.

Are they selective stats? Oh and throw in now Porps or Burton or gone (I don't think Moran will kick bag after bag) and I struggle to see you breaking your hoodoo against us.

I'm more worried about this week against WC.

And McVeigh and Lucas will both return for the Crows game so that makes it even harder for them.

Yes I am also more worried about WCE this week, but they have already had a big bunch of senior players who have already called it quits and gone in for operations. WCE play well at Subi but their team is too inexperienced.
 
Essendon vs Adelaide would be 50/50. I wouldn't see that you would be clear favs, unless Richmond beat us at home this week, and you have an awesome win in Perth.

Remember though that coming back from Perth is hard to backup. Essendon plays Adelaide after a road trip to Perth. Ironically Adelaide vs Essendon earlier in the year was when the Crows were coming back from Perth too.

i am a betting man and right now essendon would be 1.70 favourites to beat adelaide at telstra dome next week. however a week can be a long time in footy - look at the pies!
 

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