- Apr 17, 2007
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Saad is Carlton's best player in my opinion. I was go as far as to say he's outstanding. Would love him at the swans. Limiting his influence will definitely go a long way to beating Carlton.
Preview Finals Week 1 - Carlton v Sydney Swans - A Preview Driven By AI
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Saad is Carlton's best player in my opinion. I was go as far as to say he's outstanding. Would love him at the swans. Limiting his influence will definitely go a long way to beating Carlton.
Based on the stats I posted. A couple of things stood out to me, apologies for the long read. TLDR see the 'final word' at the end.
Regarding our talls:
McLean looks the most likely to have an impact come finals.
Season average goals per game: Mcdonald (1.6), Amartey (1.4) & McLean (1.0).
Rounds 18-24: Mcdonald (1.3), Amartey (1.1) & McLean (1.3).
McLean had a stretch of 5 games from R16 to R20 where he didn't score a goal, however, he spent time in the ruck, including 3 games as primary ruck while Hickey was out. In the 4 matches since then (R21-24), he's been out highest scorer (4,2,2,1).
Of all of the top 10 scorers, McDonald & Amartey have the largest drop off when comparing season averages to averages in matches where we score fewer than 16 goals, 1.6>0.8 and 1.4>0.9 respectively. They've both shown they can kick multiple goals when things are going our way, but have struggled against tougher opponents/defences (e.g. R24, a goal each to McLean & Mcdonald and Amartey went goalless).
Finals is a different beast, so we'll need a little more from the trio if we expect to go deep into finals.
Further, against other top 8 sides:
R21 v GWS - Amartey 2, McLean 4, Mcdonald goalless (6)
R14 v BRI - Armatey scored 1 goal. Hayden 0 and Mcdonald was out (1)
R13 v STK - Mcdonald was out, 0 to Amartey & McLean (Buddy kicked 2) (2)
R11 v CAR - Mcdonald was out, Armatey 0, McLean 2 (Buddy 0) (2)
R8 v COL - Mcdonald 1, Amartey was out. McLean 1 (Buddy 0) (2)
R7 v GWS - Mcdonald 3, Amartey out, McLean 1 (Buddy 3) (7)
R4 v PA - Mcdonald 2, Amartey 0, McLean out (Buddy 0) (2)
R3 v MEL - Mcdonald 1. Amartey 0, McLean out (Buddy 2) (3)
So our best output has been against GWS, where we got 6 goals out of our current talls. We'd have to go back to the GWS game in R7 which is the only match we've had all 3 talls hit the scoreboard (7 goals), although, one of the talls was Buddy. And outside of that 1 match. We haven't had all 3 hit the scoreboard against a top 8 side.
Overall, against top 8 sides, our 3 talls have combined for the following totals: 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 7, 2, 3.
Sam Wicks has scored all of his goals in matches where we've scored 16 or fewer goals. In fact, his average jumps from a goal a game across all games played to 1.3 goals a game when excluding higher scoring games. To me that suggests he's a blue chip goal scorer who will score a goal a game more often than not, but is also capable of scoring multiple goals on his day.
Gulden is the other player who's average increased in games where we've scored 16 or fewer goals. Only marginally (difference is to 2 decimal places so doesn't show in the table). But shows that he's capable of hitting the scoreboard even in the tighter games (no surprises there, he's the barometer). After scoring 3 goals in the first 8 games, he's kicked 17 in the remaining 15, so he's peaking at the right time.
JMac has a slight drop in games where we score fewer than 16 goals, but similar to Gulden, it's only visible at 2 decimal places, so he runs at about 0.7 whether we score over or under 16 goals a game. Another blue chip, albeit at 0.7 goals a game.
All other players have a slight drop in lower scoring games, which is expected, but McDonald & Amartey have the largest drop offs, 1.6>0.8 and 1.4>0.9 respectively. We really need them to lift in finals if we're going to take some scalps.
Tom Papley has struggled with form at times throughout the season, is capable of kicking multiple goals on any given day and has only gone goalless once this season. He's been our most consistent and is our highest scorer, and although he's capable of kicking multiple goals, I'd expect him to kick a goal a game with the occasional double. Seems to be under a bit of an injury cloud so I'm not expecting him to kick a bag to save us. In saying that, he was our leading goal kicker in rounds 18-24 with 12 (avg 1.8).
Isaac Heeney - His inconsistent form has been well documented, but prior to being held goalless against Melbourne in R24 (mainly due to his errant kicking), he has kicked 2 or more goals in 5 of the last 7 matches and was our 2nd highest goal kicker in rounds 18-24 with 11 (avg 1.7). Hos impact in finals depend on whether he can get the mental side right for finals, because he's capable of being a game breaker when he's at his best.
Will Hayward is playing a little further up the ground at times but is a little down on his 2022/2021 goal kicking output (1.1 goals per game compared to 1.4 in his 2 previous seasons). He's gone goalless in 8 games this year, compared to 3 & 4 games in 2022 & 2021 respectively. Has kicked goals in 4 of his last 7 games so it really depends on whether he takes his opportunities in finals.
The Chad has hit some goal scoring form in recent weeks and is running at a goal a game over the last 6 weeks, scoring in 5 of the last 6 games. Similar to Gulden, kicked 4 goals in the first 9 rounds, but has picked up steam in the latter part of the season.
Final word
It appears most of our players have hit form at the right time. That's partly due to playing teams outside of the 8 leading into finals. But if we kick straight, there's no reason why we can't do some damage in finals. We need a bit more from our talls, but we also need our other forwards playing at close to their best to kick winning scores in finals.
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- Apr 26, 2016
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Great analysis GoTheSwannies!
Voss: Hey Stevic, would you mind helping out with officiating our training. We want to simulate real game conditions leading into our game against those interstaters, the Sydney 'COLA' 'have been given a massive advantage with the academy' Swans.
Stevic: Sure thing. I'll see you there at 8am sharp
Voss: I grabbed you a coffee on the way in this morning, flat white with one, right?
Stevic: you remembered? Thanks mate
training wraps up
Cripps: Hey Stevic, the boys and I are going out for lunch after training, you're welcome to joins us if you like.
Stevic: thanks Crippa, I'd love to join you guys.
Looking at the stats, and our potential scoring power throughout finals, I’ve come up with the following.
Expectations in finals:
1-2 goals from Papley, hopefully 2
1-2 goals from Heeney (as above, hopefully he can kick 2)
2-3 goals from our talls (McLean, Mcdonald & Amartey), stats suggest 2 goals would be the norm.
1-2 goals from Hayward & Wicks
1-3 Goals from Gulden, Chad & JMac. 1-2 goals realistic
We run at about 70% goals scored from our top 10 so would expect 2-3 goals from the others. Mills, Campbell, Parker & Rowbottom the most likely (30-40% chance of scoring).
Others – goals scored throughout the whole season:
In finals-like games where we’ve scored 9-13 goals (9 games), our contribution from those outside the top 10 scorers looks a little more like this:
If we get a goal from anyone outside the list, it’s a bonus, and probably a sign we’re dominating the opposition.
Summary:
Upper expectation: 15 goals
Lower expectation: 7 goals
Likely scoring: 10-12 goals
Expectations in finals:
1-2 goals from Papley, hopefully 2
1-2 goals from Heeney (as above, hopefully he can kick 2)
2-3 goals from our talls (McLean, Mcdonald & Amartey), stats suggest 2 goals would be the norm.
1-2 goals from Hayward & Wicks
1-3 Goals from Gulden, Chad & JMac. 1-2 goals realistic
We run at about 70% goals scored from our top 10 so would expect 2-3 goals from the others. Mills, Campbell, Parker & Rowbottom the most likely (30-40% chance of scoring).
Others – goals scored throughout the whole season:
| Goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ | Tot |
| Games | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 23 |
| % chance | 13% | 22% | 26% | 17% | 22% | 100% |
In finals-like games where we’ve scored 9-13 goals (9 games), our contribution from those outside the top 10 scorers looks a little more like this:
| Goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
| Games | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| % chance | 30% | 30% | 40% | 0% |
If we get a goal from anyone outside the list, it’s a bonus, and probably a sign we’re dominating the opposition.
Summary:
Upper expectation: 15 goals
Lower expectation: 7 goals
Likely scoring: 10-12 goals
How many from Buddy? Oh, wait,
That's a big range. Not saying that you're wrong but I'm not sure the stats are all that enlightening.
- Apr 26, 2016
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It's genuinely scary to think what our forward line could become with more supply. We haven't won an inside 50 count since the flogging of West Coast back in round 15(!!) That's eight consecutive territory losses (with a draw against Geelong) by an average of eight less inside 50s. We've just gotta get it down there more and we'll get more reward.
I'm also surprised that McInerney is in our top 10 goal kickers this year. I've found his season to be an improvement on last year's and he's shown patches of his exciting best, but he's hardly set the world on fire and he's missed five games too. Bit of an indictment on others that he's scoring more than them.
I'm also surprised that McInerney is in our top 10 goal kickers this year. I've found his season to be an improvement on last year's and he's shown patches of his exciting best, but he's hardly set the world on fire and he's missed five games too. Bit of an indictment on others that he's scoring more than them.
That's a fair point, although 10-12 goals isn't a huge range. I'll provide a single projection when I get a chance just to see if I get anywhere close to the mark, in any of the games but given its meant to represent our potential performance across 4 (potential) matches, you wouldn't expect the same amount of goals to be scored by the same people.
The main purpose I had a look at our goal scoring was to have a statistical understanding of where our goals come from and which players are our bread and butter goal scorers as opposed to those who get on the end of a few when we're smashing our opposition - the latter being unlikely to happen in finals.
The other reason I looked at it was so I could review the performance of our goal scorers in finals against what we'd expect from them in the h&a season to see which players are made of sterner stuff. Who has stepped up and who has failed to live up to expectation.
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Beer deluxe has been a traditional catch up since 12 , in Fed square
wow! we lost the last 8 inside 50 counts.. but we won the games didn't we? If we're winning games, then surely the forwards are getting enough supply.
Have you ever thought why our inside 50 counts were low? Ill give you a clue to one (of many) reasons - Horse mentioned it in a post game presser.
Please stop stating facts in isolation. When someone does, it will only ever describe a fraction of the story and be misleading and incorrect
- Apr 17, 2007
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kickthething
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Cannot agree on McInerney, I reckon he has played his 2 best career games this season. He was in peak form when injured and actually had been setting the world on fire with some of his performances.
- Apr 17, 2007
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Hawks players used to go on holiday camps with the umpires and it certainly worked wonders for them. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that's how it happened with the blues.
kickthething
Brownlow Medallist
I would think so, its not unusual for umpires to attend club training. It also guarantees he will be selected to umpire our game.Is that photo real and number 9 Matt Stevic actually attended Blues training?
kickthething
Brownlow Medallist
I think they also let him win the golf day....
kickthething
Brownlow Medallist
now you need to the analysis for the Blues goals being scored against.
- Apr 26, 2016
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To each their own I guess. I'm a massive fan of his (been advocating for his immediate return once fit, playing him over Stephens etc.) but I think he's been solid without being as good as he could be or maybe should be. I don't know which games it is that you're speaking of because he hasn't received coaches votes in a single game this year, and to me he is capable of being THAT good that he can be in the top handful of players on the ground in games.
- Apr 17, 2007
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You'd think that kind of thing would compromise the competition and be disallowed, especially when Melbourne teams are the only ones with access to the umpires since they all live there.I would think so, its not unusual for umpires to attend club training. It also guarantees he will be selected to umpire our game.
And yep, I will expect Stevic to be named for our game 100%. And I'll copy and paste that photo far and wide before and after the game.
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I'm assuming you're kidding. But if not, it's a little difficult to extrapolate how much we'd score based on their performances against other sides.
If we were to look at our previous game against them as an indicator I think we'd be off the mark. Our game against them was anomalous in that only 18% of our goals (2) came from our top 5 scorers (well below the season average of 46%), however, the other 82% of our goals (9) came from scorers 6-10 (100% of goals scored by our top 10 scorers being well above the season average of 70%).
One thing we do know is that they're fairly defensive so would look to win games by restricting their opposition to a low score. So we'd expect a low scoring game, similar to the 11 we scored against them during the season, just with a different spread of scorers.
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kickthething
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Correct
- Mar 28, 2023
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As a Pies supporter, I'll be be barracking so hard for the Swannies on Friday.
Please, please beat the Blues.
Give them a lesson in finals footy which shows them they're not up to it
Please.
Please, please beat the Blues.
Give them a lesson in finals footy which shows them they're not up to it
Please.
- Sep 25, 2011
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Dude he was supurb in defense before he got injured, linking beautifully with the back 6 and working his way up the ground. Composure was amazing where it looked like time was standing still. Weird post.
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