Preview Finals Week 1 - Carlton v Sydney Swans - A Preview Driven By AI

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Dude he was supurb in defense before he got injured, linking beautifully with the back 6 and working his way up the ground. Composure was amazing where it looked like time was standing still. Weird post.
I don't think it's that weird to think he's been solid rather than superb. In any case my point was that I thought there would be others who would - and probably should - have more goals this year than McInerney.
 

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Yeah I dunno how to explain it because we are predominantly a transition from defence team and an ordinary stoppage team, yet we seem to play our best in scrappy stoppage-based games. Make it make sense!!

Edit: My theory would be that when we just focus on territory, our elite pressure and highly skilled forwards stand out more than in dry conditions, creating more of an advantage for us.
 
I reckon the 23 + emergencies will be the following. By the time Friday night comes, McInerney won't have played competitively for a day shy of 6 weeks. That's too much to ask of him to come into the starting 22 for a cut-throat final at the expense of a fit Stephens who is playing quite well currently. I'd be fine to play McInerney as sub and in the event we get unlucky with an injury, take the chance that he can have an influence but I wouldn't be starting him. The rest pick themselves basically, other than Francis who I think would have to be a chance to come in this week to stand McKay. But I expect the coaches will stick with the defensive group who have been playing quite well lately and back the smaller Rampe and Fox and Blakey to run off McKay all night.

B: Florent - McCartin - Cunningham
HB: Lloyd - Rampe - Blakey
C: Gulden - Mills - Campbell
HF: Warner - McDonald - Hayward
F: Heeney - McLean - Papley
R: Hickey - Rowbottom - Parker

I/C: Wicks - Fox - Stephens - Amartey

Sub: McInerney

Emer: Clarke - Buller - Francis
 
Everyone is dumping Clamps.

But what if Horse wants to shut-down Saad?

Carlton isn’t endowed with midfield pace - Saad’s run off half back is pretty important.

Papley is an obvious “in”, but could it be for Armatey? Pressure means a lot in finals - and Armatey just doesn’t seem to have fitness on his side.

I reckon there might be a few surprised posters come team selection.
Look, there is no way Amartey is being dropped. He returned from hammy tightness against the best defensive side in the AFL. He will put that down to experience and learn from his mistakes. Clarke is not needed. Saad can be taken by Paps or wicks, Newman, their best user, will take Heeney. Other than that, they have no stand outs back. McGovern is not as good as his brother.

I think they will look at the fact McInerney has been out for 3 and make him sub.
Stephens was good against Dees, one of the few that took them on in the last. Has proven he is a performer in September. I have always like Stephens because he has the ability to take them on and beat them. his disposal has been the problem. But also a few poor games in the middle part of the season. I hope he stays but I think he is gone, not to North but to Crows.

We made a mistake with Fritch last week. Rampe should have played on him. Not Fox nor Harry or Blakey. Match ups are very important. Curnow needs to have an opponent that is able to follow him everywhere. The other backs like Harry, Fox, Ollie & Lloydy need to stop their opponents from blocking for him and McKay. But mainly for Curnow. Curnow gets on the outside of the contest like a big mid and gets ball because his teammates block for him. Force them into giving frees away if they block or just keep them out. On the lead he is protected by a huge amount of blocking and interference with the defender, need to make sure our smaller backs protect space and block the forwards from blocking. Give his opponent a chance. We also need to intercept the lead. Watch his leading patterns and have a mid drop back in the space he will lead into. don't make it obvious until the lead is on.

As for a tall sub, i actually think it is very hard for a tall player to come into the backs as a sub. It means you have to change the balance of the back six. That is why the last time Francis was Sub he played forward until there was an opportunity to drop him in. I think it was Fox or someone came to the bench.

What I worry about is how we stop their rampaging mids? Our mids have to break even. Hickey has to have a blinder. It is a pity Gus Sheldrick is not fit as that would solve our problem.
 

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I was bored during the pre-finals bye and was wondering what our scoring looked like from a statistical perspective and figured I'd post it here in case others had any insights and hopefully to generate some discussion.

The things I've looked at was the performance of our top 10 goal scorers over the course of the season, and then for rounds 18-24 (which represents our current form, when we went on our run, and played without Buddy).

I then looked at games where we scored fewer than 16 goals (a) to remove the WC game which would impact overall results, and (b) look at games that will be more representative of finals-like games.

I then also looked at what proportion of our goals are scored by our top 10 goal kickers and top 5 goal kickers to get an idea of the spread and the contribution of others to our total goals.

I also did a comparison removing Buddy's goals given he would have been our 3rd highest goal scorer (in terms of average goals per game) and given he'll play no further part this season, removing him from the totals give some idea as to how much the top 10 / top 5 goal scorers contribute each game.

Things I've highlighted in the table:
1. Individual game cells (red=0 goals, light green=1 goal, darker green=2+goals)
2. Green highlights - show player who's goal average has increased in rounds 18-24 (compared to their season average)
3. Blue highlights - show player who's goal average increased in games where we've scored fewer than 16 goals
4. Red highlights - show player who's goal average decreased significantly in games where we've scored fewer than 16 goals
5. Yellow highlights - for top 10 players - games where the top 10 have scored 75% or more of our goals
6. Yellow highlights - for top 5 players - games where the top 10 have scored 50% or more of our goals

View attachment 1792427
To remove Buddy from the games he played gives a false impression. Because we targeted him on over 40% of our entries. Later in the season this came down to 27%. If we had played without him in those games there would have been no player in the forward 50 who was targeted more than 12% as that is what happened in the games without him. As this chart shows, our goals are spread very evenly between our forwards when Bud does not play. Even when he did play after the Bye he was targeted less and the goals were spread far more.
 
I reckon the 23 + emergencies will be the following. By the time Friday night comes, McInerney won't have played competitively for a day shy of 6 weeks. That's too much to ask of him to come into the starting 22 for a cut-throat final at the expense of a fit Stephens who is playing quite well currently. I'd be fine to play McInerney as sub and in the event we get unlucky with an injury, take the chance that he can have an influence but I wouldn't be starting him. The rest pick themselves basically, other than Francis who I think would have to be a chance to come in this week to stand McKay. But I expect the coaches will stick with the defensive group who have been playing quite well lately and back the smaller Rampe and Fox and Blakey to run off McKay all night.

B: Florent - McCartin - Cunningham
HB: Lloyd - Rampe - Blakey
C: Gulden - Mills - Campbell
HF: Warner - McDonald - Hayward
F: Heeney - McLean - Papley
R: Hickey - Rowbottom - Parker

I/C: Wicks - Fox - Stephens - Amartey

Sub: McInerney

Emer: Clarke - Buller - Francis
Most likely correct.
The only possible surprises maybe:
McInerney for Stephens or Campbell
Francis for Cunningham or Amartey
But probably not.
Melican wildcard.
 
To remove Buddy from the games he played gives a false impression. Because we targeted him on over 40% of our entries. Later in the season this came down to 27%. If we had played without him in those games there would have been no player in the forward 50 who was targeted more than 12% as that is what happened in the games without him. As this chart shows, our goals are spread very evenly between our forwards when Bud does not play. Even when he did play after the Bye he was targeted less and the goals were spread far more.
Agree, I think the key take out is we have a really good spread of options to Bob up and grab 1-3 goals from an unpredictable forward line. This should minimise interceptions in theory!

Compare that to Curnow and the Blues. We should now where majority of the ball will be headed, this should help our ability to intercept. Similar to the last game we played where we dominated in the air.
 
IMO Cripps is their point of difference for this game. Alot will say Curnow but they win games off stoppage dominance and if we don't stop him I cant see us winning. Also I trust Tom to do a good job on Curnow. Hes been the best key back in the comp the last 5 weeks.

Wonder if Heeney will negate Cripps like last time out, doubt he would because we need him forward - have to compete in the air against Carltons defence. Weitering and Kemp are good in the air.
Weitering and Kemp both like to zone off too. If you lead up and create space, easy on the 'G', you can catch them pout very easily. They like the ball coming in long. So does McGovern if he plays. Their backline is actually their Achilles heal. They restrict scoring by winning stoppages. Their forwards are not great at covering opponents when they run the ball out either and their mids can be a bit one way if you get a run on. they often set up in the context of the backs winning the ball back on the back of Weitering, McGovern, Newman & Kemp. But if that doesn't happen it can leave them very exposed and you can score very quickly.
 
Whoever isn’t having an impact as a tall sub them off for a runner. It’s not that hard really, JMac as sub would be the way I’d go though.
last week we did not activate the sub, Francis, which I think was a mistake. Fresh legs can always help. not only that, Longmire did not change anything in the last quarter even though it was obvious the tactics we were using were not working. He had to go man on man and went the flood and zone. Dreadful. You can't win games with rough old tactics like those. Even Amateur League coaches are a wake up and will exploit you.
 
Saad is Carlton's best player in my opinion. I was go as far as to say he's outstanding. Would love him at the swans. Limiting his influence will definitely go a long way to beating Carlton.
Saad was badly beaten last week. I think they either Daniels or Bedford on him, up until Bedford got injured. They also did not allow him any space and shut him down immediately. Clarke is proving to be too slow, the reason he hasn't had any tackles is because he can't catch anyone. Time to rethink how we play against backs like Saad. I think stick a speedster who can kick a goal on him and exploit his lack of pressure on his opponent. In other words take him out of the game by making him accountable.

I think Newman will get Heens & if Heens starts well then Nick is in for a really bad day. This will also remove him from the from the rebound game because Heens pressure is elite. We need to get the match ups we want. not allow them to dictate.

Rowie is the key to the clearances. While Parker might be more experienced, Rowie is the key. he will get the ball in tight, now we need him to get it out to Chad, Paps, Mills, Errol, Campbel, Stephens & maybe Ollie & Lizard coming past like a freight train.

Don't worry about the forwards, there is plenty of talent and endurance there to score well.
 
To remove Buddy from the games he played gives a false impression. Because we targeted him on over 40% of our entries. Later in the season this came down to 27%. If we had played without him in those games there would have been no player in the forward 50 who was targeted more than 12% as that is what happened in the games without him. As this chart shows, our goals are spread very evenly between our forwards when Bud does not play. Even when he did play after the Bye he was targeted less and the goals were spread far more.

I've added it in below, I've turned it into a top 11 to accommodate Buddy (it's the middle 2 lines with the orange).

I don't think it makes a huge difference statistically. Despite being targeted a lot early on in the season, Buddy wasn't scoring significantly more from those entries. So had Buddy not played in those games, and instead we targeted McLean, Mcdonald or Amartey, we probably would have had similar output (in terms of goals scored).

So in terms of looking at where our goals are going to come from, based on the players we currently have available, leaving Buddy out didn't make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

Noting that, in the 8 games he scored goals, he contributed 17-20% of our goals. But once again, we would have targeted someone else if he wasn't playing and it's arguable whether it would have made us less effective or more effective, but in any case, I doubt we would have seen a dramatic difference in the goals scored if Buddy hadn't played.

1693813059874.png
 
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I've added it in below, I've turned it into a top 11 to accommodate Buddy (it's the middle 2 lines with the orange).

I don't think it makes a huge difference statistically. Despite being targeted a lot early on in the season, Buddy wasn't scoring significantly more from those entries. So had Buddy not played in those games, and instead we targeted McLean, Mcdonald or Amartey, we probably would have had similar output (in terms of goals scored).

So in terms of looking at where our goals are going to come from, based on the players we currently have available, leaving Buddy out didn't make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things.

Noting that, in the 8 games he scored goals, he contributed 17-20% of our goals. But once again, we would have targeted someone else if he wasn't playing and it's arguable whether it would have made us less effective or more effective, but in any case, I doubt we would have seen a dramatic difference in the goals scored if Buddy hadn't played.

View attachment 1793856
Top effort GS.
 
last week we did not activate the sub, Francis, which I think was a mistake. Fresh legs can always help. not only that, Longmire did not change anything in the last quarter even though it was obvious the tactics we were using were not working. He had to go man on man and went the flood and zone. Dreadful. You can't win games with rough old tactics like those. Even Amateur League coaches are a wake up and will exploit you.

Yep not the first time he hasn’t activated the sub and we’ve lost your think he’d have learnt the first time
 
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