Geelong - Too old, too slow?

[Jake98]

Sure, and we were the oldest list to win a flag ever, regularly field the oldest and heaviest sides on record, the oldest team to make the GF (2020). We are always the oldest list and have been for a long time and we are the best performed club (in general not flags) over that time period.

Hawthorn were also quite an old side during their far more successful three-peat period. Again, they hit a point where they dropped down for a while. The same will happen to Geelong because the quality in their youth just isn't there.

Geelong are about to make the exact same mistake Hawthorn did too: further compromise youth for an expensive top-up.

 

[MisterMarcus]

So? They were said about Hawthorn too before they actually did drop off.

Geelong's squad demographic is different now. They have clearly hit a point where they're too slow to compete and their youth is clearly lacking in quality.

So do you think Geelong have some similarities to Hawthorn 2018?

I’m not quite sure any of us caught it the first 100 times you said it.

 

[Taper]

We've been saying that for over a decade...

People began writing us off in 2009 when we went 5-4 in the back end of the home and away season.
We won the flag and those who wrote us off ended up with egg on their faces.

People wrote us off coming into 2011, after we'd been flogged in the preliminary final and lost our coach and best player.
We won the flag and those who wrote us off, ended up with egg on their faces once again.

It's nothing new.
I mean, this thread was started in 2021 and we won the flag in 2022.

 

[Jake98]

People began writing us off in 2009 when we went 5-4 in the back end of the home and away season.
We won the flag and those people ended up with egg on their faces.

People wrote us off coming into 2011, after we'd been flogged in the preliminary final and lost our coach and best player.
We won the flag and those ended up with egg on their faces.

It's nothing new.
I mean, this thread was started in 2021 and we won the flag in 2022.

Yes, and?
Same could be said about Hawthorn post-2008, post-2012, etc.

Eeked out one last flag on the back of the remaining older generation players + a few top-ups. Much like Hawthorn in 2015.

As of today, Geelong's youth is bottom 4 in the AFL, and the mid-age contingent isn't great either. Even with that in mind, Crazy Chris Scott is still driven to top up, and is pushing to sign both Clayton Oliver and Bailey Smith. That will be a yikes from me.

 

[STPer18]

How many rookie picks have ever won the Rising Star award? Ollie Dempsey is set to join those ranks, and our first winner since Joel Selwood in 2007.

 

[PhatBoy]

Do you have reading difficulties? I clearly called Fremantle bottlers.

I don't "hate" Geelong, I just happen to have an opinion that clearly doesn't conform with Geelong supporters on this website. I think there are clear similarities between Geelong in 2024 and Hawthorn in 2018.

Geelong have an even older list than Hawthorn did that year, and pursuing a player like Bailey Smith bares striking resemblance to Hawthorn pursuing Chad Wingard in 2018.

So you keep telling us

If you say it more, people will be more inclined to believe you. And you’ll convince yourself at some point

 

[PhatBoy]

Yes, and?
Same could be said about Hawthorn post-2008, post-2012, etc.

Eeked out one last flag on the back of the remaining older generation players + a few top-ups. Much like Hawthorn in 2015.

As of today, Geelong's youth is bottom 4 in the AFL, and the mid-age contingent isn't great either. Even with that in mind, Crazy Chris Scott is still driven to top up, and is pushing to sign both Clayton Oliver and Bailey Smith. That will be a yikes from me.

Crazy Chris Scott - the coach with more flags than any current coach beside Hardwick and Clarkson, and with a better win percentage than any coach in history. Right. So…. Just to be clear, you think that you, the guy who can’t maintain an account on a free-of-charge footy forum where the rules are basically ‘say anything you want within reason as long as you’re not being an uncontrollable pest’ know more about team and club development than he does, and the recruitment team that have been working in tandem with him for 14 seasons.

I’m continually staggered as to how in a land where 18 - count them, 18, professional football clubs are constantly on the look out for coaching and development talent, no one has picked you up yet.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

How many rookie picks have ever won the Rising Star award? Ollie Dempsey is set to join those ranks, and our first winner since Joel Selwood in 2007.

2007... Rising star winner and we lose by single digits to Port at home.
2024... Rising star winner? and we lose by single digits to Port at home.

 

[Freomaniac]

If cats Beat Port on Thursday night at Adelaide oval, I will load up on them for the flag.

 

[Cleansweep17]

If cats Beat Port on Thursday night at Adelaide oval, I will load up on them for the flag.

I’m with you on that. Probably see a repeat of the 2022 GF.

But Dogs and Hawks can make this finals series very interesting.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’m with you on that. Probably see a repeat of the 2022 GF.

But Dogs and Hawks can make this finals series very interesting.

You're not gonna like it, but with the two form teams of the comp, straight sets for the Cats wouldn't even be embarrassing (unless they get spanked both times). Especially if it's Hawthorn and so the semi final would be at their home ground.

It's slightly different for Port as they are at AO the next match regardless and are more in their "peak" years. But just how they were unlucky to take on a red hot GWS in a SF last year, it would be the same if they had to play WB or Hawthorn this finals series.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Second oldest team still. I think with the multiple retirements starting to come Geelong will start to go through a period of falling down after this year. I do hope they have a crack at the flag this year but logic says it's finally time imo.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Second oldest team still. I think with the multiple retirements starting to come Geelong will start to go through a period of falling down after this year. I do hope they have a crack at the flag this year but logic says it's finally time imo.

The thing is, I reckon if you're picking up three long-term players over the course of a draft, you're doing pretty well. And, while it's not at the point where you could guarantee every one of these players will get to 100 games, considering our draft hands, the current top 15 from our 2019-23 drafts looks pretty damn solid to me. I'd be interested to see how it measures against other teams.

Sam de Koning, Brad Close, Max Holmes, Shannon Neale, Tanner Bruhn*, Ollie Henry*, Toby Conway, Mitch Knevitt, Ollie Dempsey, Jhye Clark, Oisin Mullin, Ted Clohesy, Connor O'Sullivan, Shaun Mannagh, Lawson Humphries.

*Bruhn and Henry of course weren't selected by Geelong, but departed their original clubs for Geelong practically as soon as they could and Geelong spent roughly equivalent picks via trade to get them.

 

[juss]

I am genuinely staggered they got that far. Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

keeps pulling it out though.

They'll have to once again beat off father time next year though with Hawkins retiring, Cameron, Stewart, Blicavs and Danger another year older in the 30s.

They've continued to do it though, so let's see if Scott can do it again in 2025.

 

[The Nostradamus]

I am genuinely staggered they got that far. Chris Scott keeps pulling it out though.

They'll have to once again beat off father time next year though with Hawkins retiring, Cameron, Stewart, Blicavs and Danger another year older in the 30s.

They've continued to do it though, so let's see if Scott can do it again in 2025.

They are going to top up again with Baz maybe Jack Martin and probably have 1 final year to contend before a lot of those players decline rapidly

So 2025 I think they get top 4 again but 2026 is when they fall big

 

[Sttew]

So 2025 I think they get top 4 again but 2026 is when they fall big

Why? It hasn’t happened in the past 20 years. In that time the team has turned over at least 3 if not 4 times.

This is a team that keeps on keeping on…

 

[Xtreme]

Why? It hasn’t happened in the past 20 years. In that time the team has turned over at least 3 if not 4 times.

This is a team that keeps on keeping on…

If it bleeds you can kill it!!

As long as they stay thereabouts WITHOUT winning a premiership - we can remain a harmonious society.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Why? It hasn’t happened in the past 20 years. In that time the team has turned over at least 3 if not 4 times.

This is a team that keeps on keeping on…

The secret to the 2024 team has been that we've really revitalised the senior squad with a consistent influx of talent each year from the 2019-23 drafts, whether they've become genuine rising stars of the competition (like Holmes and Dempsey), established fixtures in the senior side like de Koning, O. Henry, Bruhn and Close, bargain basement state league pick-ups like Mannagh and Humphries, or players we expect (and need) to take the next step in 2025: Clark, O'Sullivan, Knevitt and Conway.

The risk I'd say at this stage with the club greatly reducing its hand for the next two drafts and with unproven (yet very highly-touted) players taken with our first round picks in the past two drafts, along with the preference to get bang for buck mature agers with later picks (which is likely to continue this year) is that it could create a huge hole in the list of senior players born after 2003. Getting the likes of Bailey Smith is great, but we also need to extract more talent out of the 2024 and 2025 drafts and considering our likely hands, we're going to have to be very good and very lucky to do that.

The other part of it is a response to the recent delistings, which some would possibly describe as brutal, considering the retirements that have been announced, possibly more to come. I don't think you can say it's the wrong approach, given the success the club has had, but it's pretty clear that they consider every list spot as precious and they pretty much want every player on the list to be established AFL quality, or developing to be that. If you're not, you're gone. And that can be to the detriment of our VFL team and subsequently to our ability to cover for injuries: we currently look incredibly shallow for the 2025 season heading into trade week.

 

[FootyLad0]

They are going to top up again with Baz maybe Jack Martin and probably have 1 final year to contend before a lot of those players decline rapidly

So 2025 I think they get top 4 again but 2026 is when they fall big

Didn't you predict us to miss Finals by a long way this year?
Remember many receipts being thrown your way in the Ladder Predictor thread lol

 

[Cleansweep17]

Yes. They can’t run out a game anymore and evidenced by the prelim. Clean out is now required at the club. Like seriously why tf is Danger going again.

 

[FootyLad0]

Yes. They can’t run out a game anymore and evidenced by the prelim. Clean out is now required at the club. Like seriously why tf is Danger going again.

The team that had 9 first Finals series players and was younger/less experienced than Brisbane can't run out a game they lost by 10 points when they were behind and hit the front with 2 minutes to go?

Huh?

 

[Cleansweep17]

The team that had 9 first Finals series players and was younger/less experienced than Brisbane can't run out a game they lost by 10 points when they were behind and hit the front with 2 minutes to go?

Huh?

you got outscored signficantly in the second half of the game. That’s called not being able to run out the game.

You were only able to hit the front because of the margin you built up in the first half of the game.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Didn't you predict us to miss Finals by a long way this year?
Remember many receipts being thrown your way in the Ladder Predictor thread lol

Well he did compare us to 2016 North:

They remind me of north in 2016 when we won our first 9 games with a very old list then fell off a cliff but still made finals

I’m expecting something similar here

Oh wait he said that in 2021...

 

[Lingsface]

Yes. They can’t run out a game anymore and evidenced by the prelim. Clean out is now required at the club. Like seriously why tf is Danger going again.

3 votes Gary Ayers Medal first final is a reason.

 

[SSSSSS]

They do lack speed out of the middle that is for sure.

Danger isn't getting any quicker and they still rely on him heavily for speed out of congestion. Holmes moving into the middle is a big tick.

Baz will add that speed (depending on how well he's recovered from an ACL) but still think they are maybe one quality mid short, especially when Danger hangs up the boots.