Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[numbwombat]

Some merit to looking at Martin, and retaining guys like Duncan and Bews, but a bit of underrating the value in some unknown kid at pick 82 or in the rookie draft.

In our prelim team, we had Atkins, J Henry, Zuthrie, Close, & Dempsey all taken as rookies. All those guys will play 100 games, all except Atkins are on track IMO to play 200 (Dempsey you could argue).

We have drafted 14 rookies in the past 8 drafts (12 unknowns plus Crameri & Henderson) so going at ~40% (5 out of 12) for turning non-AFL player rookie picks into good 100+ gamers since we got Henry & Guthrie in 2016. Not convinced that’s achievable long-term but at minimum 20% should be.

List churn is valuable. Three currencies in list management: draft picks, salary cap, list spots.

 

[Hinkley29]

Every DFA is a free hit when you think about it.

And I'm all for Stewart spending more time in the midfield but Martin ain't no replacement IMO.

There are no free hits.

List spots and salary cap are valuable commodities and definitely not free.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Goodness me the dick measuring insistence on being right is seriously pathetic, go outside and talk to an actual human of the opposite sex or feed the ducks down at the park or something you losers

Its been an issue with this board for years, too many egos on here that cant ever accept anyone might ever disagree with them without having a sook, real man child behaviour and its starting to piss me and many others off.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I'd rather conor stone than Robertson if we are going down that fringe player in a strong side type of route.

Neither really get me moist in the loins TBH.
Is there an option C or D??

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I'd rather conor stone than Robertson if we are going down that fringe player in a strong side type of route.

4me Carlton's Kennedy offers 3x than these two if i can choose.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Neither really get me moist in the loins TBH.
Is there an option C or D??

Not many options this year
But I like stone he has good footy IQ and uses it well. I think Robertson is more limited whereas I think stone could become a very decent player in a good system.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Some merit to looking at Martin, and retaining guys like Duncan and Bews, but a bit of underrating the value in some unknown kid at pick 82 or in the rookie draft.

In our prelim team, we had Atkins, J Henry, Zuthrie, Close, & Dempsey all taken as rookies. All those guys will play 100 games, all except Atkins are on track IMO to play 200 (Dempsey you could argue).

We have drafted 14 rookies in the past 8 drafts (12 unknowns plus Crameri & Henderson) so going at ~40% (5 out of 12) for turning non-AFL player rookie picks into good 100+ gamers since we got Henry & Guthrie in 2016. Not convinced that’s achievable long-term but at minimum 20% should be.

List churn is valuable. Three currencies in list management: draft picks, salary cap, list spots.

Agreed. But for some reason the Club sees something in the acquisition of JM that we don't.
A bit like adding those two skinny kids ZGuthrie and Close many years ago.
Both were WTF picks if my memory serves me well.
FWIW adding JM eliminates using a pick.
But the salary and why the list spot is something only the club really knows.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Not many options this year
But I like stone he has good footy IQ and uses it well. I think Robertson is more limited whereas I think stone could become a very decent player in a good system.

Thats why missing out on Davies was a kick in the nuts 4me.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Some merit to looking at Martin, and retaining guys like Duncan and Bews, but a bit of underrating the value in some unknown kid at pick 82 or in the rookie draft.

In our prelim team, we had Atkins, J Henry, Zuthrie, Close, & Dempsey all taken as rookies. All those guys will play 100 games, all except Atkins are on track IMO to play 200 (Dempsey you could argue).

We have drafted 14 rookies in the past 8 drafts (12 unknowns plus Crameri & Henderson) so going at ~40% (5 out of 12) for turning non-AFL player rookie picks into good 100+ gamers since we got Henry & Guthrie in 2016. Not convinced that’s achievable long-term but at minimum 20% should be.

List churn is valuable. Three currencies in list management: draft picks, salary cap, list spots.

They're not "an unknown kid" to our recruiters though.

We actually do pretty poorly when we give a list spot to a typical junior who came through the usual pathways. Guys like Cooper Whyte, Nick Stevens, etc.

We do exceptionally well when we find a player from obscure backgrounds or mature age that weren't expected to be picked (Dempsey, Humphries, Atkins, Close, Blicavs, etc).

Even Zach Guthrie didn't even make the Calder Cannons squad (not team but squad) in his underage year and Jack Henry was considered a surprise to even get an invite to the draft combine. They were both genuine bolters.

If we're not churning our list it's cause we don't see guys like Humphries, Dempsey, etc that we really want.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

There are no free hits.

List spots and salary cap are valuable commodities and definitely not free.

Semantics.

 

[Kitcat]

After Smith’s comments about outgrowing the club, Dogs posters are saying he wasn’t good enough to break into their midfield and would have been 5th/6th choice next season. No mention of accepting a lower trade value though.

 

[numbwombat]

They're not "an unknown kid" to our recruiters though.

We actually do pretty poorly when we give a list spot to a typical junior who came through the usual pathways. Guys like Cooper Whyte, Nick Stevens, etc.

We do exceptionally well when we find a player from obscure backgrounds or mature age that weren't expected to be picked (Dempsey, Humphries, Atkins, Close, Blicavs, etc).

Even Zach Guthrie didn't even make the Calder Cannons squad (not team but squad) in his underage year and Jack Henry was considered a surprise to even get an invite to the draft combine. They were both genuine bolters.

If we're not churning our list it's cause we don't see guys like Humphries, Dempsey, etc that we really want.

Yes. I’m not speaking to our recruiters, though, I’m speaking to people on here who have expressed doubt re: the value of freeing up list spots or refer to Jack Martin as a free hit.

We have 9 out of 45 players leaving our list, that is a huge change. Not plausible to argue that recruiters aren’t acting like it’s a deep draft with a lot of value in late picks.

 

[Hinkley29]

It's his third year and he's been poor in 3/4 of his 18 games, he needs way more time learning the craft and his kicking may be good but as a run-with player he can't find the ball, if knevitt or clarke played as badly we would being hanging them off the rafters, but the good news is he has time to show improvement.

Second year player who is not dominating after 18 games.

What a shock

 

[Hinkley29]

Semantics.

It is far from semantics.

There is a concept known as opportunity cost. Good clubs understand it, shit clubs don’t.

 

[iameviljez]

Semantics.

No, Hinkley29 is correct. No such thing as a free hit.

Lawson Humphries is Exhibit A here, and Ollie Dempsey is Exhibit B. We basically bought ourselves two nothing picks at the end of the draft, and used them on two smokies in Wiltshire and Humphries. One of them has clearly worked out thus far.

Then there's the question of spots in the 22. If Martin had been here and fit at the start of this year, I have no doubt that Ollie Dempsey wouldn't have gotten the same opportunities, nor Mannagh to be honest.

List places and AFL games are limited commodities, you can't give one without taking something away.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Yes. I’m not speaking to our recruiters, though, I’m speaking to people on here who have expressed doubt re: the value of freeing up list spots or refer to Jack Martin as a free hit.

We have 9 out of 45 players leaving our list, that is a huge change. Not plausible to argue that recruiters aren’t acting like it’s a deep draft with a lot of value in late picks.

9 changes is pretty standard. If we get Martin, Smith and the Irish category B rookie then unless we make further cuts we'll have at most 6 picks across the 2 drafts (less if we leave a spot vacant).

We've only taken less than 6 picks twice in the last 10 drafts. We've taken more than 6 picks 6 times in the last 10 drafts.

The talk is this draft is very deep in the top 30-40. But if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual.

 

[iameviljez]

9 changes is pretty standard. If we get Martin, Smith and the Irish category B rookie then unless we make further cuts we'll have at most 6 picks across the 2 drafts (less if we leave a spot vacant).

Yeah, especially if you include rookies in that list.

 

[bombersboy]

If we get injuries to any of Cameron, Neale or Ollie Henry who plays forward - Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

or maybe SDK? We have a lot more coverage down back with SDK, Blicavs, Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

, Kolo, Stewart, Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

, Humphries, Bews plus COS developing. Easy to make a case for 1 or 2 of these moving to another role.

With Rohan retiring there is no coverage for the medium marking forward role. It is Ollie Henry or bust.

 

[supahoops]

If we get injuries to any of Cameron, Neale or Ollie Henry who plays forward - Jack Henry or maybe SDK? We have a lot more coverage down back with SDK, Blicavs, Jack Henry, Kolo, Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Humphries, Bews plus COS developing. Easy to make a case for 1 or 2 of these moving to another role.

With Rohan retiring there is no coverage for the medium marking forward role. It is Ollie Henry or bust.

Jack Martin says hi or going with a smaller forward line isn’t the worst option, with Blicavs, Knevitt or whoever our ruck maybe drifting forward. Biggest ‘problem’ with our forward line is the delivery i50, was terrible from where I sat up high at the PF.

 

[Munich]

Yes you are right 2nd year

of AFL.

 

[numbwombat]

9 changes is pretty standard. If we get Martin, Smith and the Irish category B rookie then unless we make further cuts we'll have at most 6 picks across the 2 drafts (less if we leave a spot vacant).

We've only taken less than 6 picks twice in the last 10 drafts. We've taken more than 6 picks 6 times in the last 10 drafts.

The talk is this draft is very deep in the top 30-40. But if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual.

lol sure, IF we get Martin and the Irish players. and if we filled all 9 spots via the draft, or more likely, if we traded in Smith but didn't get Martin nor the Irish players (who we haven't even seen yet), and then filled the remaining spots with 8 picks in the national and rookie drafts, that would be the 2nd most picks in the last decade, behind only 2016

"if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual" - yes sure absolutely, provided you take into account future events that haven't occurred yet and may not happen, that's exactly how we're acting, you've nailed it

 

[Warhorse]

This draft has depth. Happy to take more this year

 

[Footy Smarts]

lol sure, IF we get Martin and the Irish players. and if we filled all 9 spots via the draft, or more likely, if we traded in Smith but didn't get Martin nor the Irish players (who we haven't even seen yet), and then filled the remaining spots with 8 picks in the national and rookie drafts, that would be the 2nd most picks in the last decade, behind only 2016

"if anything we're acting like we see less value at the back end of the draft than usual" - yes sure absolutely, provided you take into account future events that haven't occurred yet and may not happen, that's exactly how we're acting, you've nailed it

Lol. Settle down.

We're trying to get Martin and the Irish guy. We've offered Bews, Stanley and Duncan contracts for next season. That's not a future event that's happening right now.

If we thought really wanted to go large in this draft we wouldn't be doing all those things.

Maybe we end up taking more picks because Duncan retires or Martin rejects us but clearly that's not the current aim.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

After Smith’s comments about outgrowing the club, Dogs posters are saying he wasn’t good enough to break into their midfield and would have been 5th/6th choice next season. No mention of accepting a lower trade value though.

What did he say?

 

[Kitcat]

If we get injuries to any of Cameron, Neale or Ollie Henry who plays forward - Jack Henry or maybe SDK? We have a lot more coverage down back with SDK, Blicavs, Jack Henry, Kolo, Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Humphries, Bews plus COS developing. Easy to make a case for 1 or 2 of these moving to another role.

With Rohan retiring there is no coverage for the medium marking forward role. It is Ollie Henry or bust.

Danger could spend some time there, particularly if we get another mid in addition to Smith.