Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[Alex_au]

We could be 7th by the end of this round if WC win with GWS and Sydney win.

I think 8th is the highest possible position for us end of this round if all goes to plan.

 

[Crankyhawk]

WC shitting it up in second half as usual

 

[user33]

A close giants win was the worst possible result.

 

[DogDaySonny]

A close giants win was the worst possible result.

No, a big win by the giants would be worse. Percentage is our enemy, not wins or losses. We keep winning and we get in. There’s no way for us to back in from 11th. Percentage will determine whether we can host once in or not.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

We could be 7th by the end of this round if WC win with GWS and Sydney win.

Not going to happen now Freo is cruising now West Coast play 1 half of footy ATM like the other bottom 2. Hardly fired a shot since just before half time.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

A close giants win was the worst possible result.

Actually agree. Least if Melbourne won the Giants would be 8 losses as well opening up more chances. The more the team in the 8 are winning it closes the gap to how many can get in from outside even if they keep winning.

 

[Walshawk]

Getting harder. Just did the ladder predictor with us only losing to GWS and we end up 9th!

 

[theiaofseed]

A close giants win was the worst possible result.

If we win tomorrow and the Bulldogs lose, we're in the 8.

 

[Mitch75]

Getting harder. Just did the ladder predictor with us only losing to GWS and we end up 9th!

Yep. 13 wins very unlikely to get us in now. We need 14. So one loss only from here

 

[Walshawk]

Yep. 13 wins very unlikely to get us in now. We need 14. So one loss only from here

Win one or both of the next two and the Carlton game becomes out biggest since 2018.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Assuming we beat Adelaide tomorrow we will be in the 8 and we will be hard to dislodge from that position.

Doggies will be the ones to watch from here on in and also I still reckon Port and Carlton are no sure things to make the finals.

 

[earthworms]

Essendon Lose
Melbourne Lose
Dogs Lose
Hawks Win

We finish the round 8th.

Essendon Lose
Melbourne Lose
Dogs Lose
Hawks Win

We finish the round 8th.

 

[theiaofseed]

Not sure why people think Melbourne winning was a bad thing. It's now down to 10 teams, assuming we win tomorrow we're 1 game clear of Essendon and maybe even the Bulldogs if Sydney do their job.


Essendon play Fremantle, Suns, Brisbane and Sydney.
Bulldogs play Melbourne, Adelaide, North and Giants.


We're in a good position to slam the half volley.

 

[kazzooka]

I agree BUT do you know how hard it is to:
"all we have to do is keep winning "

Been doing a pretty good job of it for the last 13 weeks, and this is our easiest 5 game patch of the season.

 

[user33]

Essendon Lose
Melbourne Lose
Dogs Lose
Hawks Win

We finish the round 8th.

We’ve gone out to worse odds to make the 8 on Sportsbet after today’s results. With the giants winning, could mean there’s only 1 spot up for grabs. The dogs have a very easy run home.

 

[theiaofseed]

We’ve gone out to worse odds to make the 8 on Sportsbet after today’s results. With the giants winning, could mean there’s only 1 spot up for grabs. The dogs have a very easy run home.

Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide(away), North and Giants

It's more difficult than ours.

 

[I wanna pash Nash]

If I may, the ladder is quite fluid at the moment. Lots of sliding door moments could happen. So this summary will look like trash by round 22.

I think as it stands there's 2 teams coming hard outside the eight. Us and the Dogs. Melbourne are still a chance but they'd have to be perfect from here on out. In their favour (and ours) is that they play both the Dogs and Port so if they beat both of them it opens up the ladder a bit more.

The two teams who I think are the most susceptible to dropping out are Essendon (they look done) and Port (have just been so up and down, and draw isnt the easiest) obviously if Carlton don't right the ship they'll start being in trouble but you think they'd still make it from here.

Giants and Geelong look pretty comfy and are hitting form at the right time but are on the same points as the others so who knows. The Giants draw is pretty tough though. But the flip side is they get to play both us and the Dogs so they can quell the resistance personally. Much fluid. Very liquid.

GWS - Us, Brisbane, Freo, Dogs

Ports draw isn't the nicest either - Syd, Melb, Adl, Freo

Dogs play - Syd, Melb, Adl, North, GWS

We play - Adl, GWS, Carlton, Richmond, North

I am not including Essendon because, well, ick. Same with Geelong, gross.

I think if Dogs beat Sydney today we'll need to death ride Port hard for another spot to open up for us to slip into (which would make our loss to them incredibly sliding door-esq). If Dogs beat Sydney you think they'd only drop maybe one of those games in the back 4. Leaving us hard pressed to finish above them.

If they don't, and go back to being inconsistent they've got some loseable games with only North being the real gimmie (even though that's getting harder and harder as they're getting better). And we might be able to finish above them.

Who knows, this season's been rad. I don't actually know how anyone's climbing the ladder because it's so fluid it might as well just be a puddle on the ground.

TLDR; we have to win one more than the Dogs (I can't see us catching their %) or hope Port nuke themselves and drop out giving us another spot. We beat GWS though and can't rule them out to slide as their draw is not user friendly.

Or in short. Just keep winning.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Yep. 13 wins very unlikely to get us in now. We need 14. So one loss only from here

Giants have the toughest run home of everybody IMO. They are no guarantees to make it particularly if we beat them next week so that's 1 spot we can overtake. Bombers obviously we replace if Dogs lose today and we win. If we keep ahead of the bombers win loss and GWS we will make it.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Swans will go full bore the next 3 weeks to make sure they seal top spot. That helps us because they play Port, Melbourne and the Dogs in this window.

 

[hfc70]

Luke Breust to play game 300 in our Semi final ……..

 

[Sixpence]

Luke Breust to play game 300 in our Semi final ……..

Prelim*

 

[Mitch75]

Doesn’t matter if we’re in the 8 by tonight or not. There’s lots of results still to play out in the last four rounds. The Saints are our friends. With games against Brisbane, Geelong and Carlton still to come, all at Marvel, they can help us climb into the 8. Especially if they beat Carlton. I think that could be the other team, other than the Bombers who slip out of the 8 from here. Port too are vulnerable. There’s at least two teams whose spots we can claim in the 8 by the final round. But realistically, we can only lose one game from here

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Just win baby

 

[eldorado]

I agree BUT do you know how hard it is to:
"all we have to do is keep winning "

Doesn't the same apply to every team ahead of us?

 

[Roddy]

Doesn’t matter if we’re in the 8 by tonight or not. There’s lots of results still to play out in the last four rounds. The Saints are our friends. With games against Brisbane, Geelong and Carlton still to come, all at Marvel, they can help us climb into the 8. Especially if they beat Carlton. I think that could be the other team, other than the Bombers who slip out of the 8 from here. Port too are vulnerable. There’s at least two teams whose spots we can claim in the 8 by the final round. But realistically, we can only lose one game from here

Then they can give us Mr Battle!