Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[kazzooka]

I feel like 2 weeks ago anyone down to 13th was in with a chance. Last week it was to 11th. Now I just cannot see anyone other than us in 9th making there way in.

Essendon is best placed but tough fixture and toast. Melbourne and Collingwood will need to win all 4 and hope for losses.

 

[earthworms]

Hawks st kilda grand final

 

[BigVic]

Mathematically possible

 

[tommyk72]

Gee the next two weeks will be exciting. Even if we don’t get up, what a season it’s been. If we play the way we have been, anything is possible.

 

[SammyC]

9 teams in fhe race now - melb, essendon, pies and gold coast are cooked i reckon.

Dogs look good so we need to catch gws or port. Makes this week massive. Geelongs draw too soft. Carlton could still bomb (which would be hilarious) but think it’s unlikely.

 

[Dragz]

I'd say Doggies are in.

Us / Port / Melb / GWS fighting it out for 7/8/9/10 i reckon. Apart from the fact that we're very watchable, the season being this close is great.

 

[indianhawks]

When was the last time we had back to back 120+ points game? I don't remember it at all.

And that too against Collingwood and Adelaide at Adelaide. Not bad i terms of form

 

[TylerDurden]

If Freo drop this game at Marvel v the Dons, they're in all sorts. Have a super tough run home.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

Simple equation. Win 1 of the next 2.

Even simpler - win against GWS. One week at a time

Port is extremely gettable with percentage too. Not only do they play the Swans next week (albeit at home) and the Dockers (away) to finish but they also have the Showdown…which could be Matthew Nicks coaching for his job.

We mightn’t get the Dons v Hawks dream final but a Cats v Hawks final is very, very possible

Give us a go at the Cats at the G please. Even better if it was a GF.

 

[Lawsy]

If you use live ladder

Live Ladders by Ranking Software

www.liveladders.com

They have the final 8 as follows

1 . Sydney on 68 - 134%
2. Brisbane on 62 - 120%
3. Fremantle on 58 - 115%
4. Western Bulldogs on 56 - 123%
5. Carlton on 56 - 111%
6. Geelong on 56 - 110%
7. Hawthorn on 56 - 108%
8. GWS on 56 - 108%

I’d take this first week would be

Sydney v Western Bulldogs
Brisbane v Fremantle
Carlton v GWS
Geelong v Hawthorn

If this eventuates i.e. ladder position, we'll belt Richmond and North by enough in the last two rounds to pass Geelol on % to take the GMHBA question out of the equation. We've improved ~7-8% in the last 2 rounds.

 

[Bardo State]

Squiggle has us at a 66% chance of making the 8. About a 14% chance of making the top 4. It's pretty much 9 teams going into 8 now. I think before the Freo game it was down below 20% to make finals.

Win in Canberra and I'd be shocked if we miss.

Port, GWS, Melbourne and Freo couldn't go 4-0 or 0-4 for the rest of the year with their draws.

What an incredible season.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I think GWS are a chance to completely drop the ball.
They've won 4 in a row but I don't think they've been that convincing - and their last 3 games are Lions, Dockers and Bulldogs.

That GWS v Dockers game could conspire against us if the worse of the two teams wins it.

 

[KermitJagger]

People think Carlton are done and will be an easy game, they have Andrew Russell as there fitness coach they are probably doing a mini pre season leading into the finals, as he used to do with us, so they may come back hard.

I'm not sure about that. Carlton are miles off where we were as a club, a lot of their form issues have been from losing players to injury and having a pretty subpar bottom handful of players.

In theory Carlton are a simple proposition - you beat them through the middle, limit their I50s and that's most of what makes them dangerous gone. Carlton's ability to generate score once inside 50 is the best in the league, but they're below average at getting it there. As with most games it's going to heavily rely on our midfield's ability to win their battle and set up to control play.

As we saw in the first quarter, we're no guarantee of bringing our A-Game right out of the gate, so hopefully we can either do that or keep it close and run it out like we did against the Crows.

 

[Nugett]

Let’s beat GWS next week, and our chances increase significantly. Not concerned with other results, or the following weeks clash, we can only focus on who, where, when we are playing this week. Keep winning and our chances keep improving.

 

[user33]

Squiggle has us at a 66% chance of making the 8. About a 14% chance of making the top 4. It's pretty much 9 teams going into 8 now. I think before the Freo game it was down below 20% to make finals.

Win in Canberra and I'd be shocked if we miss.

Port, GWS, Melbourne and Freo couldn't go 4-0 or 0-4 for the rest of the year with their draws.

What an incredible season.

Sports bet has us finishing 8th, with Port just finishing 9th behind us. Looks like the odds/predictions are slightly in our favour.

 

[tommyk72]

Sports bet has us finishing 8th, with Port just finishing 9th behind us. Looks like the odds/predictions are slightly in our favour.

Surely the odds are changing considerably each round with all these upsets?

 

[user33]

Surely the odds are changing considerably each round with all these upsets?

Yep they are, our odds had us finishing 9th before yesterday’s game, 8th after our win.

 

[peetoo]

Season has a 1993 feel to it.
Pre * Essendon won, but were smashed by the hawks previous year by a squillion goals.

Anything could happen

 

[peetoo]

Let’s beat GWS next week, and our chances increase significantly. Not concerned with other results, or the following weeks clash, we can only focus on who, where, when we are playing this week. Keep winning and our chances keep improving.

With it being second week travelling, it’s clearly our hardest remaining fixture. Not at Showgrounds helps though.

 

[Nugett]

With it being second week travelling, it’s clearly our hardest remaining fixture. Not at Showgrounds helps though.

The last 4 weeks has been a bit of a slog, Tassie, Melbourne, Adelaide, now Canberra, then back to Melbourne to play Carlton.

Compare that to Carlton who hasn’t left Melbourne since they played GWS back in round 17.

Our fixture this year, hasn’t been the best, despite being a bottom 4 team last year.

 

[peetoo]

Squiggle. 1 point loss to GWS. 1 point win over Carlton

 

[GladdyDee]

Season has a 1993 feel to it.
Pre * Essendon won, but were smashed by the hawks previous year by a squillion goals.

Anything could .

 

[Leather Poisoning]

The reason we have 'such an even season' is because we in fact have such an uneven season. To have 3 teams that are an absolute basket case like North, Richmond and West Coast - who have 7 wins between them - just donating wins to the rest of the comp it's basically the same effect as inflation, where a win isn't worth as much as other seasons where there's less win disparity.

The same thing happened when GC and GWS came in and Melbourne were as bad as them. Some even seasons, but we didn't notice so much because we were primed and winning flags.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

It's really interesting to see Carlton and Essendon doing basically the opposite of us - and having a stack of losses at the end of the season instead of the start. Not sure what I'd prefer as a supporter.
Carlton really should beat Collingwood this weekend. I don't think Essendon have much chance against Freo

 

[Kanga Commando]

The last 4 weeks has been a bit of a slog, Tassie, Melbourne, Adelaide, now Canberra, then back to Melbourne to play Carlton.

Compare that to Carlton who hasn’t left Melbourne since they played GWS back in round 17.

Our fixture this year, hasn’t been the best, despite being a bottom 4 team last year.

Same as most draw's we've had recently