Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Strapping Young Lad]

West Coast are decimated by injuries. For every senior player, they've got a guy who shouldn't be getting a game.

West Coast's injury list is better than Hawthorn and West Coast's current "available" lists.

I wonder how many will turn up for Hawthorn's next Tassie game against the eagles!? Doubt many Perth people would be flying over to watch half their team duke it out with the other bottom team. Be lucky to get 8,000. I think a few non-Hawthorn Tassie people are starting to not go to see the Hawks so that the AFL will go the other route and put in a Tassie side.

Anyone watching the last 2 minutes of the game yesterday couldn't think the Hawks are tanking on game day and they're not the only team choosing youth over fielding the very best team. I'm starting to worry they're not doing it enough.

Do you really think the size of the crowd at Launceston has any sort of bearing on the AFL and Tasmania’s push for a side there?

They are getting one regardless.

 

[Warhorse]

Not tanking. Chosen a strategy to pivot hard away from the Clarkson era.

 

[Kuuz]

Sicily came off for 5 mins deep into the last qtr i heard. If thats true its a bit suss.

True. At 95% game time, I feel like he at least had another 5% game time in him. Maybe 10% more.

 

[Saint]

Do you really think the size of the crowd at Launceston has any sort of bearing on the AFL and Tasmania’s push for a side there?

They are getting one regardless.

Why spend money on a membership to see Hawthorn when they're on the bottom and you can save your money for a Tassie membership in a couple of years.

I don't think anyone in Tassie would be wanting to hitcher their wagon to the Hawks, the Tassie team will be in the league before Hawthorn make the finals again.

 

[Blackhawk42]

If at the end of 3 years his win rate is sub 25% there's no doubt?

No doubt.

 

[evo]

Not tanking, but golly they have some butchers in the midfield. Newcombe, Worpedo Mckenzie et al can get the hardball, but it wouldnt hurt to look where they are kicking it from time to time.

And this is coming from someone who has Tarranto in their side haha.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Why spend money on a membership to see Hawthorn when they're on the bottom and you can save your money for a Tassie membership in a couple of years.

I don't think anyone in Tassie would be wanting to hitcher their wagon to the Hawks, the Tassie team will be in the league before Hawthorn make the finals again.

Honestly, who cares if a couple of thousand people save their money up for a Tassie membership.
Tasmania are getting a team, we all know this.

Tasmania aren’t likely in the league before 2027 or 2028, and no club in the league is 4-5 years off finals.

 

[Freomaniac]

Fremantle were expected to be finalists or close to it.

This thread is about Hawthorn tanking. Considering how close we were to being 3-3 I'd suggest the only thing we're failing at is the tanking itself.

Yeah but I knew Freo were gonna struggle. Double ups vs West Coast and hawks didn't help.

Double ups vs cats , swans, dogs and Brisbane did help either

 

[peetoo]

LOL. Mitchell gets at least 4-5 years.

Absolutely. And this year isn’t a bust yet, unfortunate side note

 

[peetoo]

If at the end of 3 years his win rate is sub 25% there's no doubt?

It’s not essendon

 

[boncer34]

It’s not essendon

What does Essendon have to do with the question?

 

[peetoo]

What does Essendon have to do with the question?

Cant stick with a coaching team even 2 years. It’s that which kills culture and the oft quotes carlton and Melbourne years show that.

 

[boncer34]

Cant stick with a coaching team even 2 years

What does that have to do with the question?

 

[peetoo]

What does that have to do with the question?

How much explaination do you want?
By the way 2023 isn’t a bust yet. Why not outline why you think hawks will have even one never mind three poor seasons

 

[boncer34]

How much explaination do you want?
By the way 2023 isn’t a bust yet. Why not outline why you think hawks will have even one never mind three poor seasons

Any. What does Essendon have to do with me asking a question about Sam Mitchell's job security?

Hawthorn are 1-5 with a percentage of 64.5%. I think they get another 3 or 4 wins this season and then I was asking if hypothetically it happened again would he be safe. I never said Hawthorn was having 3 poor seasons.

 

[peetoo]

If at the end of 3 years his win rate is sub 25% there's no doubt?

We’ll start again will we?

Ladder over 11 rounds up to r5
Carl 4.5 haw 4 pta 4* gc 3* gws 3* nm 3 wc 3

* had a win in round 6

 

[boncer34]

We’ll start again will we?

If my worst case scenario for this year (4 wins) and it hypothetically happens again then yes at the end of his first 3 seasons his win rate will be under 25%.

16 from 68.

Now you explain what Essendon has to do with me asking about his job security?

 

[peetoo]

Any. What does Essendon have to do with me asking a question about Sam Mitchell's job security?

Hawthorn are 1-5 with a percentage of 64.5%. I think they get another 3 or 4 wins this season and then I was asking if hypothetically it happened again would he be safe. I never said Hawthorn was having 3 poor seasons.

Because they wont

 

[Bradkli]

Not tanking, but golly they have some butchers in the midfield. Newcombe, Worpedo Mckenzie et al can get the hardball, but it wouldnt hurt to look where they are kicking it from time to time.

And this is coming from someone who has Tarranto in their side haha.

This is wrong mate..Worpel yes..complete butcher and shouldn’t ever kick BUT Newcombe and Mackenzie in particular are good users..we also have Day and Ward who are quality users. There is another kid at Box Hill, Henry Hustwaite that will play in the back half of the season. He’s an elite user. Connor macdonald will eventually become a midfielder and he has superb skills.

Our midfield overall is building nicely and we have drafted players with excellent skills in recent years. Day, ward, macdonald, Mackenzie and Hustwaite

 

[peetoo]

If my worst case scenario for this year (4 wins) and it hypothetically happens again then yes at the end of his first 3 seasons his win rate will be under 25%.

16 from 68.
Now you explain what Essendon has to do with me asking about his job security?

Because they burnt a coach after not quite two seasons
P
Ironically in th exercise I did the last 11-12 games, Essendon and st kilda we’re going as well at the end of 2022 as the beginning of 2022, as were carlton

All teams who don’t stick with the program. Hawthorn do, even when Jeff was bad mouthing Clarko back in the day

And your scenario is only existing in your mind, you do get that don’t you?

 

[boncer34]

Because they burnt a coach after not quite two seasons
P
Ironically in th exercise I did the last 11-12 games, Essendon and st kilda we’re going as well at the end of 2022 as the beginning of 2022, as were carlton

All teams who don’t stick with the program. Hawthorn do, even when Jeff was bad mouthing Clarko back in the day

And your scenario is only existing in your mind, you do get that don’t you?

Who cares what Essendon did? I asked a question about Hawthorn, so why reference Essendon? They're irrelevant to the topic of Hawthorn. As is St Kilda and Carlton, my question was about Hawthorn and Hawthorn's coach. What other clubs do or have done is irrelevant.

Yes I know my hypothetical situation hasn't happened. It's why it's called a hypothetical. Except where I said Hawthorn are 1-5 with a percentage of 64.5%, that's very real.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not tanking, but golly they have some butchers in the midfield. Newcombe, Worpedo Mckenzie et al can get the hardball, but it wouldnt hurt to look where they are kicking it from time to time.

And this is coming from someone who has Tarranto in their side haha.

Should’ve gone to spec savers.

 

[hawkman]

Who cares what Essendon did? I asked a question about Hawthorn, so why reference Essendon? They're irrelevant to the topic of Hawthorn. As is St Kilda and Carlton, my question was about Hawthorn and Hawthorn's coach. What other clubs do or have done is irrelevant.

Yes I know my hypothetical situation hasn't happened. It's why it's called a hypothetical. Except where I said Hawthorn are 1-5 with a percentage of 64.5%, that's very real.

The first 2 weeks were terrible, but in the last 4 weeks we have played 1 bad half. Not with a key forward most likely coming back this week, there should be further improvements

 

[boncer34]

The first 2 weeks were terrible, but in the last 4 weeks we have played 1 bad half. Not with a key forward most likely coming back this week, there should be further improvements

2 of those games were against fellow bottom 6 aspirants, the Crows game was decent but for me the Geelong second half well and truly cancelled out any ground gained with the first half.

Interesting to see how you shape up against the Dogs, get close to them (maybe even win) and I'll potentially need to revise my predictions.

 

[SSSSSS]

Clarko did the same thing in his first year in charge re: not putting a spare back.

Clarko wanted to win his way rather than to simply defend a lead and 'not lose'. I see Mitchell is cut from a similar cloth, no doubt wearing his influence.