Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Jhye Clark 13]

I've been an advocate of what Hawthorn are building but they're clearly tanking.

 

[Shueygod]

West coast are finishing last. We will win a few games in the back half of the season, especially with Mitch Lewis back.

Oh yeah Mitch Lewis must make a huge difference compared to our 10 missing AA’s

 

[peetoo]

The even up for the Puopolo HTB that was paid in the back that cost us the game in 2017

Is this the worst ‘in the back’ call ever?

Umpires in the spotlight again after awarding controversial free to Hawthorn.

thewest.com.au

‘Right in front of me’

 

[Titch3Votes0MooreAA]

What thought this would be a good idea for a thread? If we were tanking, we would have kept Mitchell, O'Meara, and Shiels, and we wouldn’t have committed to a young midfield. If we had kept those three, we would have had no hope whatsoever of getting anywhere, despite them being good players in their own right or elite in the case of Mitchell. We're 10th, 9th, and 8th for centre clearances, stoppage clearances, and total, respectively, just 6 games after letting them walk out the door. We're 5th for marks and second for tackles inside 50. Our forward line, minus the presence of a key forward, has held up extremely well considering the situation and will finally receive that key forward we need when our young superstar Mitchell Lewis

2

Mitchell Lewis

Age

26

Ht

199cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

5.9

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.2

4star

D

4.3

1star

K

2.8

1star

HB

1.5

1star

M

0.8

1star

T

0.3

1star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.6

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

comes back this week. We've seen young Brockman and 25-year-old Fergus Greene

26

Fergus Greene

Age

27

Ht

187cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.8

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.8

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.0

4star

have a great impact so far, and they look like they will be mainstays in our side for the rest of this decade. We've got young forward Sam Butler and 204-cm athletic key forward Max Ramsden coming along very nicely in the VFL, and they should push their way into the side over the course of the year, with them both hopefully becoming key pieces in our next premiership push. Our defensive form and positioning have been a bit worrying at times, I do admit, but we have got the talent down there. 2020 Pick 6 Denver Grainger-Barras locked down his fellow 2020 draftee in Thilthorpe yesterday, with him having very little impact, and second-gamer Seamus Mitchell had a very good outing as well.

 

[threesixpio]

We were 18th for centre clearances and total clearances with JOM and Tom in the side.

We’ve had Newcombe and Worpel playing roles forward in The last month with Nash and Day taking the most CBA’s and still improved to be 5th in centre clearances and 12th in total clearances.

The plan to strip back the midfield and let it grow together can be seen every week.

 

[The 747]

What thought this would be a good idea for a thread? If we were tanking, we would have kept Mitchell, O'Meara, and Shiels, and we wouldn’t have committed to a young midfield. If we had kept those three, we would have had no hope whatsoever of getting anywhere, despite them being good players in their own right or elite in the case of Mitchell. We're 10th, 9th, and 8th for centre clearances, stoppage clearances, and total, respectively, just 6 games after letting them walk out the door. We're 5th for marks and second for tackles inside 50. Our forward line, minus the presence of a key forward, has held up extremely well considering the situation and will finally receive that key forward we need when our young superstar Mitchell Lewis comes back this week. We've seen young Brockman and 25-year-old Fergus Greene have a great impact so far, and they look like they will be mainstays in our side for the rest of this decade. We've got young forward Sam Butler and 204-cm athletic key forward Max Ramsden coming along very nicely in the VFL, and they should push their way into the side over the course of the year, with them both hopefully becoming key pieces in our next premiership push. Our defensive form and positioning have been a bit worrying at times, I do admit, but we have got the talent down there. 2020 Pick 6 Denver Grainger-Barras locked down his fellow 2020 draftee in Thilthorpe yesterday, with him having very little impact, and second-gamer Seamus Mitchell had a very good outing as well.

You're last on the ladder.

 

[nelk boys]

You're last on the ladder.

Closer to a flag, than Geelong.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Done beautifully again on the weekend, yet another honourable loss - so they don't get any points and therefore stay in front of the pack chasing Harley Reid.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Closer to a flag, than Geelong.

How do you know that?

It’s hard to predict who will win this years flag, let alone the contenders for the next 5 years.

So how can you with any substance know one way or another if you’re saying something remotely accurate?

 

[nelk boys]

How do you know that?

It’s hard to predict who will win this years flag, let alone the contenders for the next 5 years.

So how can you with any substance know one way or another if you’re saying something remotely accurate?

Stay on topic bud.

How are we tanking?

 

[Xtreme]

You're last on the ladder.

But 1st for Harley Reid!

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Stay on topic bud.

How are we tanking?

Page 1.

Think there's a difference between rebuilding and tanking.

Making list management decisions that preference the future over the now is merely a list management strategy. This is what Hawthorn appears to have done. Not without its risks either, can sometimes take 3-5 years to discover if your horde of draftees have what it takes, and if not then another rebuild beckons.

But tanking to me is making deliberate in game/pre-game decisions that undermine trying to win that weekend's match. So long as Hawthorn try and field sides close to their possible best, however weak that best may turn out to be. Then all okay by me.

 

[nelk boys]

Page 1.

So we are not tanking?

Awesome. Thanks for the confirmation.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

So we are not tanking?

Awesome. Thanks for the confirmation.

Odd exchange.

Was replying to the notion you're closer than the reigning premiers to a flag. Your words.
These predictions are usually lacking in substance.

 

[Daka]

How do you know that?

It’s hard to predict who will win this years flag, let alone the contenders for the next 5 years.

So how can you with any substance know one way or another if you’re saying something remotely accurate?

One thing is for sure, I can't see Geelong ever bottoming out if they haven't already. I think them being the only Victorian team to have their own Home Ground that they train on is probably one of the biggest advantages in the competition.

 

[Xtreme]

The only tanking Hawthorn participates in is where Sam Mitchell and the players play with Tonka Trucks and army tanks at the Hawthorn family days.

 

[hk89]

You're last on the ladder.

Saints were last on the ladder in 1983, when Lockett was just starting out. He kicked only 19 goals that year from 12 games. The next year in 1984 he kicked 77 goals from 20 games. Saints actually scored 200 less points in 1984, and again finished bottom of the ladder. Using your broken logic, you'd say Lockett had stagnated because the team again finished bottom of the ladder that year. Why is it so hard for Geelong fans to understand that you can improve in one area but still not improve your ladder position? It is a team sport, our midfield has improved, other areas have stagnated or gone backwards.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Saints were last on the ladder in 1983, when Lockett was just starting out. He kicked only 19 goals that year from 12 games. The next year in 1984 he kicked 77 goals from 20 games. Saints actually scored 200 less points in 1984, and again finished bottom of the ladder. Using your broken logic, you'd say Lockett had stagnated because the team again finished bottom of the ladder that year. Why is it so hard for Geelong fans to understand that you can improve in one area but still not improve your ladder position? It is a team sport, our midfield has improved, other areas have stagnated or gone backwards.

Some of the logic-knots Hawthorn supporters in this thread are tying themselves into in an attempt to justify their team's rank tanking would be hilarious to witness if it wasn't all so sad.

Great example hk89, and I completely agree with you.

Tony Lockett did rapidly improve as a full forward for St Kilda, as we all know - went on to share a Brownlow with the great Johnny Platten only a few short years after his debut.

How many games did St Kilda win during that period? SFA.

It is a team sport, as you have identified. How does Tony Lockett's individual brilliance or Hawthorn's supposed midfield brilliance in 2023's bottom-placed team reflect team progress??

It doesn't. At all. Team progress in a results-based ''industry'' is measured in wins, not arbitrarily cherry-picked statistics.

And by that measure - the only genuine measure - Hawthorn have very predictably gone backwards. Just as Sam Mitchell planned. They are a worse team than they were last year. Not by accident. By design. That's tanking.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

The only tanking Hawthorn participates in is where Sam Mitchell and the players play with Tonka Trucks and army tanks at the Hawthorn family days.

No such thing as a Hawthorn family day. Clarko made sure they didn’t have kids.

 

[Great8]

No such thing as a Hawthorn family day. Clarko made sure they didn’t have kids.

Only if they are indigenous

 

[peetoo]

Some of the logic-knots Hawthorn supporters in this thread are tying themselves into in an attempt to justify their team's rank tanking would be hilarious to witness if it wasn't all so sad.

Great example hk89, and I completely agree with you.

Tony Lockett did rapidly improve as a full forward for St Kilda, as we all know - went on to share a Brownlow with the great Johnny Platten only a few short years after his debut.

How many games did St Kilda win during that period? SFA.

It is a team sport, as you have identified. How does Tony Lockett's individual brilliance or Hawthorn's supposed midfield brilliance in 2023's bottom-placed team reflect team progress??

It doesn't. At all. Team progress in a results-based ''industry'' is measured in wins, not arbitrarily cherry-picked statistics.

And by that measure - the only genuine measure - Hawthorn have very predictably gone backwards. Just as Sam Mitchell planned. They are a worse team than they were last year. Not by accident. By design. That's tanking.

On that measure…worse than last year, at least 6 and possibly 9 teams tank every single year

 

[Cursed Cat]

On that measure…worse than last year, at least 6 and possibly 9 teams tank every single year

There are all kind of legitimate reasons a team might get worse from one year to the next.

But when the coach turfs all of a team's experienced players and is then compelled to write a letter to the members admitting that they have no interest in aiming for the finals, the following year's results are of no surprise to anyone - that club has aimed to get worse, to play dead, to not compete to their best ability.

 

[Xtreme]

No such thing as a Hawthorn family day. Clarko made sure they didn’t have kids.

 

[hawkman]

Only if they are indigenous

I'm not sure Sam Mitchell would agree

 

[hk89]

Some of the logic-knots Hawthorn supporters in this thread are tying themselves into in an attempt to justify their team's rank tanking would be hilarious to witness if it wasn't all so sad.

Great example hk89, and I completely agree with you.

Tony Lockett did rapidly improve as a full forward for St Kilda, as we all know - went on to share a Brownlow with the great Johnny Platten only a few short years after his debut.

How many games did St Kilda win during that period? SFA.

It is a team sport, as you have identified. How does Tony Lockett's individual brilliance or Hawthorn's supposed midfield brilliance in 2023's bottom-placed team reflect team progress??

It doesn't. At all. Team progress in a results-based ''industry'' is measured in wins, not arbitrarily cherry-picked statistics.

And by that measure - the only genuine measure - Hawthorn have very predictably gone backwards. Just as Sam Mitchell planned. They are a worse team than they were last year. Not by accident. By design. That's tanking.

Well done on massively missing the point. AGAIN. You are the one claiming we are tanking because we deliberately got rid of three midfielders. We've gone backwards due to having no talls, none of which we deliberately got rid of. If we'd gone backwards under Mitchell's plan of getting rid of 3 underperforming mids, then that would be reflected by our midfield going backwards. Because it hasn't, your main argument for Mitchell's deliberate tank is gone. Team progress has been hampered by our lack of talls, not by our lack of three players that were not working in our midfield, and whose removal has improved our midfield numbers across multiple measures. Or put simply, if Sam Mitchell attempted to tank by getting rid of O'Meara, Mitchell and Shiels then he messed that part of his plan up. I feel sad for your inability to grasp this.