Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[The 747]

Saints were last on the ladder in 1983, when Lockett was just starting out. He kicked only 19 goals that year from 12 games. The next year in 1984 he kicked 77 goals from 20 games. Saints actually scored 200 less points in 1984, and again finished bottom of the ladder. Using your broken logic, you'd say Lockett had stagnated because the team again finished bottom of the ladder that year. Why is it so hard for Geelong fans to understand that you can improve in one area but still not improve your ladder position? It is a team sport, our midfield has improved, other areas have stagnated or gone backwards.

Going back 40 years. An individual is not a team.

Fans from other clubs understand the Hawk posters arguments, but since they is terribly optimistic it is worth reiterating what matters. Wins.

Never thought I'd see the mighty Hawks fans reduced to cherry picking for stats and pretending to be happy about losing.

 

[The 747]

Well done on massively missing the point. AGAIN. You are the one claiming we are tanking because we deliberately got rid of three midfielders. We've gone backwards due to having no talls, none of which we deliberately got rid of. If we'd gone backwards under Mitchell's plan of getting rid of 3 underperforming mids, then that would be reflected by our midfield going backwards. Because it hasn't, your main argument for Mitchell's deliberate tank is gone. Team progress has been hampered by our lack of talls, not by our lack of three players that were not working in our midfield, and whose removal has improved our midfield numbers across multiple measures. Or put simply, if Sam Mitchell attempted to tank by getting rid of O'Meara, Mitchell and Shiels then he messed that part of his plan up. I feel sad for your inability to grasp this.

Hawthorn have gone backward this year yes?

Hawthorn voluntarily got rid of players last year who are AFL standard (only just I guess) yes?

Hawthorn's master coach does not seem to be coaching much in the way of defence yes?

Fairly simple to move from that to is this deliberate?

 

[peetoo]

Well done on massively missing the point. AGAIN. You are the one claiming we are tanking because we deliberately got rid of three midfielders. We've gone backwards due to having no talls, none of which we deliberately got rid of. If we'd gone backwards under Mitchell's plan of getting rid of 3 underperforming mids, then that would be reflected by our midfield going backwards. Because it hasn't, your main argument for Mitchell's deliberate tank is gone. Team progress has been hampered by our lack of talls, not by our lack of three players that were not working in our midfield, and whose removal has improved our midfield numbers across multiple measures. Or put simply, if Sam Mitchell attempted to tank by getting rid of O'Meara, Mitchell and Shiels then he messed that part of his plan up. I feel sad for your inability to grasp this.

Yep we went without rucks for a massive part off 2022? Tanking? But apparently the results from 2022 compared to now are evidence of tanking. Yet they recruited another ruck

 

[peetoo]

Hawthorn have gone backward this year yes?

Hawthorn voluntarily got rid of players last year who are AFL standard (only just I guess) yes?

Hawthorn's master coach does not seem to be coaching much in the way of defence yes?

Fairly simple to move from that to is this deliberate?

It’s not dissimilar to 2005-2007. Prioritising learnings. If we grab a flag against an ‘unbeatable’ team like in 2008 it’s all just whiny social media shit.
And there was plenty similar in 2005-2007

 

[Ashman23]

Some of the logic-knots Hawthorn supporters in this thread are tying themselves into in an attempt to justify their team's rank tanking would be hilarious to witness if it wasn't all so sad.

Great example hk89, and I completely agree with you.

Tony Lockett did rapidly improve as a full forward for St Kilda, as we all know - went on to share a Brownlow with the great Johnny Platten only a few short years after his debut.

How many games did St Kilda win during that period? SFA.

It is a team sport, as you have identified. How does Tony Lockett's individual brilliance or Hawthorn's supposed midfield brilliance in 2023's bottom-placed team reflect team progress??

It doesn't. At all. Team progress in a results-based ''industry'' is measured in wins, not arbitrarily cherry-picked statistics.

And by that measure - the only genuine measure - Hawthorn have very predictably gone backwards. Just as Sam Mitchell planned. They are a worse team than they were last year. Not by accident. By design. That's tanking.

 

[Gollum]

Oh yeah Mitch Lewis must make a huge difference compared to our 10 missing AA’s

Who would you say has more impact to how well your team plays, Oscar Allen or those 10 AA. And the impact Mitch Lewis has is even greater because we don't even have a somewhat in form key forward to fall back on, while you guys have Darling. Besides your 10 AA's will probably all break down again within 3 games

 

[The 747]

It’s not dissimilar to 2005-2007. Prioritising learnings. If we grab a flag against an ‘unbeatable’ team like in 2008 it’s all just whiny social media s**t.
And there was plenty similar in 2005-2007

Aside from the vast gulf in the talent on your list then and now.

Like the Geelong shade though.

 

[peetoo]

Aside from the vast gulf in the talent on your list then and now.

Like the Geelong shade though.

Bigfooty didn’t rate it that highly at the time. The emergencies for 2008 gf were Murphy and Taylor

 

[Blackhawk42]

But when the coach turfs all of a team's experienced players and is then compelled to write a letter to the members admitting that they have no interest in aiming for the finals, the following year's results are of no surprise to anyone - that club has aimed to get worse, to play dead, to not compete to their best ability.

This just isn't true whatsoever.

The letter was to appease the supporter base who expects every season to be 'our time'.

If you don't possess a true understanding of list management and age demographics you'd be scratching your head as to why Tom Mitchell and Jeager O'Meara are being traded. That's a large portion of a supporter base who expect miracles every year.

As for the bolded, the major movements of O'Meara and Mitchell have proven to be the right ones since the new midfield unit is the best it's been collectively and individually since the three-peat.

The retirement of Ben McEvoy, Jack Gunston exercising his free agency rights and the injury to Mitchell Lewis are the biggest contributors to our ladder position. All things out of Sam Mitchell's control.

 

[The 747]

Bigfooty didn’t rate it that highly at the time. The emergencies for 2008 gf were Murphy and Taylor

15 years ago mate.

 

[peetoo]

15 years ago mate.

And?

I was saying the approach now is similar to then. A proven technique.

 

[mcnulty]

This just isn't true whatsoever.

The letter was to appease the supporter base who expects every season to be 'our time'.

If you don't possess a true understanding of list management and age demographics you'd be scratching your head as to why Tom Mitchell and Jeager O'Meara are being traded. That's a large portion of a supporter base who expect miracles every year.

As for the bolded, the major movements of O'Meara and Mitchell have proven to be the right ones since the new midfield unit is the best it's been collectively and individually since the three-peat.

The retirement of Ben McEvoy, Jack Gunston exercising his free agency rights and the injury to Mitchell Lewis are the biggest contributors to our ladder position. All things out of Sam Mitchell's control.

Have to admit I was critical of the the midfield fire sale at the time because although I think we have a very promising young group (Day, Newcombe, Ward, McKenzie etc), I thought it would be lambs to the slaughter, which is not good in the short term nor for player development.

Looks like they’ve backed in Nash and Worpel, a couple of stronger bodies, to provide these guys with a bit of cover. They’re certainly no A graders but have been pretty good so far this year in their roles, which in part will be to manage these guys into the rotations. Happy with where the midfield is heading.

The forward line on the other hand…

 

[Shueygod]

Who would you say has more impact to how well your team plays, Oscar Allen or those 10 AA. And the impact Mitch Lewis has is even greater because we don't even have a somewhat in form key forward to fall back on, while you guys have Darling. Besides your 10 AA's will probably all break down again within 3 games

Yeah I’d say Mcgovern, Naitanui, Yeo, Ryan, Shuey, Cripps, Sheed combined probably have a bigger impact than one key forward.

Eagles have more talent injured than Hawks have on their list.

 

[Gollum]

Yeah I’d say Mcgovern, Naitanui, Yeo, Ryan, Shuey, Cripps, Sheed combined probably have a bigger impact than one key forward.

Eagles have more talent injured than Hawks have on their list.

Shame your medical staff aren't good enough to get them back on the park. Though last year Ryan, Shuey, and Cripps played the majority of last year and McGovern also got half a season, yet they only managed 2 wins without Oscar Allen. I would much prefer Hawthorn's list than your handful ageing and injury prone All-Australians

 

[Shueygod]

Shame your medical staff aren't good enough to get them back on the park. Though last year Ryan, Shuey, and Cripps played the majority of last year and McGovern also got half a season, yet they only managed 2 wins without Oscar Allen. I would much prefer Hawthorn's list than your handful ageing and injury prone All-Australians

Yes because Allen was the only player missing last season, not like we had to use top ups at some points.

Hawks list ****ing sucks, even our young boys are better than yours.

I’d be praying for Reid.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Yes because Allen was the only player missing last season, not like we had to use top ups at some points.

Hawks list ******* sucks, even our young boys are better than yours.

I’d be praying for Reid.

Do you legitimately mean this?

Our list is young but go and check how our VFL side is going. Depth is off the charts.

 

[nelk boys]

Yes because Allen was the only player missing last season, not like we had to use top ups at some points.

Hawks list ******* sucks, even our young boys are better than yours.

I’d be praying for Reid.

Which 'young boys' are better than ours?

 

[Blackhawk42]

Which 'young boys' are better than ours?

Certainly can't be Jai 'if only you were Newcombe' Culley.

 

[Gollum]

Do you legitimately mean this?

Our list is young but go and check how our VFL side is going. Depth is off the charts.

I'm a West Perth fan, so the 169 point percentage booster was great after coming up against the 'young' eagles in the WAFL

 

[Shueygod]

Which 'young boys' are better than ours?

Ginbey is like Newcombe if Newcombe had class, and I love me some Newcombe.

I'm a West Perth fan, so the 169 point percentage booster was great after coming up against the 'young' eagles in the WAFL

Ah yes, the 5 18 year old eagles surrounded by amateur players is a great indicator of our young talent.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Ginbey is like Newcombe if Newcombe had class, and I love me some Newcombe.


Ah yes, the 5 18 year old eagles surrounded by amateur players is a great indicator of our young talent.

I rate Ginbey, but he needs to become your number 1 mid, win the coaches association young player of the year award and poll 11 Brownlow votes this season to be even equalling the Duke at this stage.

 

[Hannebrake]

Some of the logic-knots Hawthorn supporters in this thread are tying themselves into in an attempt to justify their team's rank tanking would be hilarious to witness if it wasn't all so sad.

Great example hk89, and I completely agree with you.

Tony Lockett did rapidly improve as a full forward for St Kilda, as we all know - went on to share a Brownlow with the great Johnny Platten only a few short years after his debut.

How many games did St Kilda win during that period? SFA.

It is a team sport, as you have identified. How does Tony Lockett's individual brilliance or Hawthorn's supposed midfield brilliance in 2023's bottom-placed team reflect team progress??

It doesn't. At all. Team progress in a results-based ''industry'' is measured in wins, not arbitrarily cherry-picked statistics.

And by that measure - the only genuine measure - Hawthorn have very predictably gone backwards. Just as Sam Mitchell planned. They are a worse team than they were last year. Not by accident. By design. That's tanking.

Being temporarily worse in order to facilitate development isn’t tanking though.

Tanking, by definition, is deliberately throwing games in order to solidify an advantageous draft position. You actually have to do it on match day (see current Dallas Mavericks tanking scandal for a clear example)
Being worse by design isn’t deliberately losing on match day.

A list clear-out is not tanking, most AFL clubs have to do it to some degree after periods of success, and the system somewhat forces clubs to do it.

I haven’t watched every hawthorn game this year but I can definitely say they weren’t trying to lose their last couple of matches.

 

[Shueygod]

I rate Ginbey, but he needs to become your number 1 mid, win the coaches association young player of the year award and poll 11 votes this season to be even equalling the Duke at this stage.

Newcombe is a good player but Ginbey clearly projects to be better. Guys like Culley/Newcombe are always gonna have lower ceilings than their more naturally talented counterparts.

 

[Gollum]

Yes because Allen was the only player missing last season, not like we had to use top ups at some points.

Sorry I forgot having top ups for one game caused you to lose another 19

 

[Blackhawk42]

Newcombe is a good player but Ginbey clearly projects to be better. Guys like Culley/Newcombe are always gonna have lower ceilings than their more naturally talented counterparts.

All jokes aside, I like Culley too.

But you can't make those comments. Player development doesn't work that way. In Newcombes case, he missed his under 18 year due to Covid. We have no idea how he would have 'projected' in comparison to Ginbey.