Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Shueygod]

Sorry I forgot having top ups for one game caused you to lose another 19

I’m really not sure what the point is in pretending Eagles injury issues haven’t been unprecedented and an acceptable reason for poor performance the last two seasons.

 

[Shueygod]

All jokes aside, I like Culley too.

But you can't make those comments. Player development doesn't work that way. In Newcombes case, he missed his under 18 year due to Covid. We have no idea how he would have 'projected' in comparison to Ginbey.

I’ve watched a lot of Newcombe, love the way he goes about it, is a blunt knife though.

For mine, unless you have elite athletic attributes (Fyfe, Danger, Petracca), you have to have elite skills to be a top 20 mid in the comp.

Don’t think Newcombe has the potential to get either of those but will be a very good player for a long time.

 

[Gollum]

I’ve watched a lot of Newcombe, love the way he goes about it, is a blunt knife though.

For mine, unless you have elite athletic attributes (Fyfe, Danger, Petracca), you have to have elite skills to be a top 20 mid in the comp.

Don’t think Newcombe has the potential to get either of those but will be a very good player for a long time.

You do realise it was Ginbey's butchering of the ball which pushed him down the draft order. He is huge body with elite athleticism, so if he had elite skills as well he'd have gone pick 1. The reason why Cam MacKenzie, or Jhye Clark went higher in the draft is because they used the ball better. You can't say Ginbey's disposal is better than Newcombe as they probably use the ball similalarly and are both inside brutes. Therefore you can't say at this stage Ginbey will be better than Newcombe, especially when Newcombe already has the runs on the board after one full season.

 

[Shueygod]

You do realise it was Ginbey's butchering of the ball which pushed him down the draft order. He is huge body with elite athleticism, so if he had elite skills as well he'd have gone pick 1. The reason why Cam MacKenzie, or Jhye Clark went higher in the draft is because they used the ball better. You can't say Ginbey's disposal is better than Newcombe as they probably use the ball similalarly and are both inside brutes. Therefore you can't say at this stage Ginbey will be better than Newcombe, especially when Newcombe already has the runs on the board after one full season.

I said you need one or the other, Ginbey obviously has the elite athletic attributes which can make up for his shoddy disposal (which has actually looked good at AFL level), Newcombe does not have those attributes at the same level.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Yes because Allen was the only player missing last season, not like we had to use top ups at some points.

Hawks list ******* sucks, even our young boys are better than yours.

I’d be praying for Reid.

You're a clown, your youth isn't in the same stratosphere as ours. You ****ing suck and you will be irrelevant for a decade, shut up.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Ginbey is like Newcombe if Newcombe had class, and I love me some Newcombe.


Ah yes, the 5 18 year old eagles surrounded by amateur players is a great indicator of our young talent.

Ginbey can't tie Newcombe's bootlaces, Newcombe was the best young player in the comp last year (ACBYP) and Ginbey isn't close to Newcombe, in any way at all.

Newcombe was 1st for clearance to score and 2nd for inside 50 kicking last year, IN THE COMP.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Newcombe is a good player but Ginbey clearly projects to be better. Guys like Culley/Newcombe are always gonna have lower ceilings than their more naturally talented counterparts.

Taking the piss, seriously stop digging down, dig up.

 

[The 747]

You're a clown, your youth isn't in the same stratosphere as ours. You ******* suck and you will be irrelevant for a decade, shut up.

Take it to the Bay Dom.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Take it to the Bay Dom.

Mate.

Probably the dumbest thing i have heard for a while.

West Coast have some good talent, Allen, Ginbey, Culley, Bazzo etc among others.

But they've got so many old and key players in their team still, or they're in their prime.

They have a severe lacking of youth and a gulf that Hawthorn don't have, as the youngest team in the comp.

West Coast are the 9th oldest team in the competition, their average age is 24.5, their games played is 74.3 (6th)
Hawthorn are the 18th oldest team in the competition, their average age is 23.1, their games played is 42.6 (18th)

West Coast are just as bad, if not worse than Hawthorn and were last year aswell, and they lack talent.

They deserve their own thread for the placement of where they are at, which is absolutely no where, they aren't young and rebuilding and they aren't good or contending.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

You're last on the ladder.

We would be 3-3 with a key forward playing and Will Day. Building a brand isn't black and white based on wins and losses. Simpleton argument.

 

[Shueygod]

Mate.

Probably the dumbest thing i have heard for a while.

West Coast have some good talent, Allen, Ginbey, Culley, Bazzo etc among others.

But they've got so many old and key players in their team still, or they're in their prime.

They have a severe lacking of youth and a gulf that Hawthorn don't have, as the youngest team in the comp.

West Coast are the 9th oldest team in the competition, their average age is 24.5, their games played is 74.3 (6th)
Hawthorn are the 18th oldest team in the competition, their average age is 23.1, their games played is 42.6 (18th)

West Coast are just as bad, if not worse than Hawthorn and were last year aswell, and they lack talent.

They deserve their own thread for the placement of where they are at, which is absolutely no where, they aren't young and rebuilding and they aren't good or contending.

The thing is mate those old blokes are barely playing anyway, it’s not like they are the ones resulting in this performance.

We have 26 blokes 24 or under, 14 blokes under 21. The difference between the lists is your shit old blokes are slightly younger than our injury prone old blokes.

 

[nelk boys]

The thing is mate those old blokes are barely playing anyway, it’s not like they are the ones resulting in this performance.

We have 26 blokes 24 or under, 14 blokes under 21. The difference between the lists is your s**t old blokes are slightly younger than our injury prone old blokes.

and our youth is vastly better.

 

[Shueygod]

and our youth is vastly better.

Nah, Allen solos

 

[The 747]

Mate.

Probably the dumbest thing i have heard for a while.

West Coast have some good talent, Allen, Ginbey, Culley, Bazzo etc among others.

But they've got so many old and key players in their team still, or they're in their prime.

They have a severe lacking of youth and a gulf that Hawthorn don't have, as the youngest team in the comp.

West Coast are the 9th oldest team in the competition, their average age is 24.5, their games played is 74.3 (6th)
Hawthorn are the 18th oldest team in the competition, their average age is 23.1, their games played is 42.6 (18th)

West Coast are just as bad, if not worse than Hawthorn and were last year aswell, and they lack talent.

They deserve their own thread for the placement of where they are at, which is absolutely no where, they aren't young and rebuilding and they aren't good or contending.

Aren't they above you on the ladder at the moment?

 

[mcnulty]

Aren't they above you on the ladder at the moment?

I can’t possibly fathom how bored you must be.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

The thing is mate those old blokes are barely playing anyway, it’s not like they are the ones resulting in this performance.

We have 26 blokes 24 or under, 14 blokes under 21. The difference between the lists is your s**t old blokes are slightly younger than our injury prone old blokes.

LMFAOOOOO

I can't take anything you say seriously when you said Ginbey is better than Newcombe already and Culley is as good.

Newcombe and Day are single handily better than any talent you have on your list.

 

[Shueygod]

LMFAOOOOO

I can't take anything you say seriously when you said Ginbey is better than Newcombe already and Culley is as good.

Newcombe and Day are single handily better than any talent you have on your list.

I didn’t say Ginbey is better and Culley is as good currently, your comprehension sucks.

I think Ginbey projects to be a better player and has a clearly higher ceiling than Newcombe.

Culley I don’t think is on the same level.

No coach in the league would trade Oscar Allen for either of those players.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I didn’t say Ginbey is better and Culley is as good currently, your comprehension sucks.

I think Ginbey projects to be a better player and has a clearly higher ceiling than Newcombe.

Culley I don’t think is on the same level.

No coach in the league would trade Oscar Allen for either of those players.

Mitch Lewis is better than Oscar Allen, Will Day is better than any player you have and Jai Newcombe is better than Ginbey and projections/ceilings are all subjective, you have NFI if you think it's clear.

Newcombe has production at the level, being the best young player in the comp last year, 11 brownlow votes, and dominating games.

Ginbey hasn't gotten close, he's been a solid starter so far.

Ginbey tackles better and that's all he does better than Newcombe. Honestly it's laughable.

Newcombe after 1 AFL pre season in 2022:
22.5 disposals a game
12 kicks
4 inside 50s
9 contested possessions
4 clearances
0.4 goals 0.7 goal assists and 5.4 score involvements
4.6 tackles
4.3 marks
435 metres gained

NUMBER 1 IN THE AFL FOR CLEARANCES LEADING TO SCORES.
NUMBER 2 IN THE AFL FOR INSIDE 50 KICKING.

Ginbey after 1 AFL pre season in 2023:
14.5 disposals a game
6 kicks
2.7 inside 50s
7.5 contested possessions
2.5 clearances
0.2 goals 0 goal assists 2.7 score involvements
7.2 tackles
1.2 marks
184 metres gained

Ginbey doesn't come close to Newcombe, and it's dumb for you to try "projection" rubbish. Newcombe has an A Grade ceiling, he'll be a star.

 

[SSSSSS]

Think both Ginbey and Newcombe are being undersold by their respective champions in this mental duel.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Mitch Lewis is better than Oscar Allen, Will Day is better than any player you have and Jai Newcombe is better than Ginbey and projections/ceilings are all subjective, you have NFI if you think it's clear.

Newcombe has production at the level, being the best young player in the comp last year, 11 brownlow votes, and dominating games.

Ginbey hasn't gotten close, he's been a solid starter so far.

Ginbey tackles better and that's all he does better than Newcombe. Honestly it's laughable.

Newcombe after 1 AFL pre season in 2022:
22.5 disposals a game
12 kicks
4 inside 50s
9 contested possessions
4 clearances
0.4 goals 0.7 goal assists and 5.4 score involvements
4.6 tackles
4.3 marks
435 metres gained

NUMBER 1 IN THE AFL FOR CLEARANCES LEADING TO SCORES.
NUMBER 2 IN THE AFL FOR INSIDE 50 KICKING.

Ginbey after 1 AFL pre season in 2023:
14.5 disposals a game
6 kicks
2.7 inside 50s
7.5 contested possessions
2.5 clearances
0.2 goals 0 goal assists 2.7 score involvements
7.2 tackles
1.2 marks
184 metres gained

Ginbey doesn't come close to Newcombe, and it's dumb for you to try "projection" rubbish. Newcombe has an A Grade ceiling, he'll be a star.

This does undersell Ginbey a fair bit, he's a good player and will project to be so.

He is a great size, he's a great tackler, with great athletic ability, and his inside game and ability to win the hard ball was top notch in his U18s.

He probably needs to look at someone like Cripps and build his game off his, or try.

 

[Shueygod]

Mitch Lewis is better than Oscar Allen, Will Day is better than any player you have and Jai Newcombe is better than Ginbey and projections/ceilings are all subjective, you have NFI if you think it's clear.

Newcombe has production at the level, being the best young player in the comp last year, 11 brownlow votes, and dominating games.

Ginbey hasn't gotten close, he's been a solid starter so far.

Ginbey tackles better and that's all he does better than Newcombe. Honestly it's laughable.

Newcombe after 1 AFL pre season in 2022:
22.5 disposals a game
12 kicks
4 inside 50s
9 contested possessions
4 clearances
0.4 goals 0.7 goal assists and 5.4 score involvements
4.6 tackles
4.3 marks
435 metres gained

NUMBER 1 IN THE AFL FOR CLEARANCES LEADING TO SCORES.
NUMBER 2 IN THE AFL FOR INSIDE 50 KICKING.

Ginbey after 1 AFL pre season in 2023:
14.5 disposals a game
6 kicks
2.7 inside 50s
7.5 contested possessions
2.5 clearances
0.2 goals 0 goal assists 2.7 score involvements
7.2 tackles
1.2 marks
184 metres gained

Ginbey doesn't come close to Newcombe, and it's dumb for you to try "projection" rubbish. Newcombe has an A Grade ceiling, he'll be a star.

Mitch Lewis is clearly not better than Allen, Allen having the better season this year than Lewis’ last year when they were the same age. Despite Allen coming off a 1.5 year layoff.

Day is a very good young player.

You’re either an idiot or being purposefully obtuse by comparing Newcombe as a 20 year old to Ginbey as an 18 year old.

Newcombe will never be a top 20 mid, he’s not explosive enough to lack the class he does. I do think he’ll be a gun for a long time just don’t think he has the same ceiling as other talents (Will day for mine has a much higher ceiling).

 

[Shueygod]

Mitch Lewis is better than Oscar Allen, Will Day is better than any player you have and Jai Newcombe is better than Ginbey and projections/ceilings are all subjective, you have NFI if you think it's clear.

Newcombe has production at the level, being the best young player in the comp last year, 11 brownlow votes, and dominating games.

Ginbey hasn't gotten close, he's been a solid starter so far.

Ginbey tackles better and that's all he does better than Newcombe. Honestly it's laughable.

Newcombe after 1 AFL pre season in 2022:
22.5 disposals a game
12 kicks
4 inside 50s
9 contested possessions
4 clearances
0.4 goals 0.7 goal assists and 5.4 score involvements
4.6 tackles
4.3 marks
435 metres gained

NUMBER 1 IN THE AFL FOR CLEARANCES LEADING TO SCORES.
NUMBER 2 IN THE AFL FOR INSIDE 50 KICKING.

Ginbey after 1 AFL pre season in 2023:
14.5 disposals a game
6 kicks
2.7 inside 50s
7.5 contested possessions
2.5 clearances
0.2 goals 0 goal assists 2.7 score involvements
7.2 tackles
1.2 marks
184 metres gained

Ginbey doesn't come close to Newcombe, and it's dumb for you to try "projection" rubbish. Newcombe has an A Grade ceiling, he'll be a star.

Let’s do the comparison at the same age instead.

Ginbey at 18:
14.5 disposals a game
6 kicks
2.7 inside 50s
7.5 contested possessions
2.5 clearances
0.2 goals 0 goal assists 2.7 score involvements
7.2 tackles
1.2 marks
184 metres gained

Newcombe at 18:
1 vfl practice match

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Mitch Lewis is clearly not better than Allen, Allen having the better season this year than Lewis’ last year when they were the same age. Despite Allen coming off a 1.5 year layoff.

Day is a very good young player.

You’re either an idiot or being purposefully obtuse by comparing Newcombe as a 20 year old to Ginbey as an 18 year old.

Newcombe will never be a top 20 mid, he’s not explosive enough to lack the class he does. I do think he’ll be a gun for a long time just don’t think he has the same ceiling as other talents (Will day for mine has a much higher ceiling).

Mitch Lewis averaged 3 goals a game and about 2 contested marks a game and dominated in a stretch from Round 1 to midway through 2022 before doing a knee injury after kicking 5 in a half against Adelaide. Allen is 2.7 and 1.5 after 6 rounds. After Mitch Lewis's first 5 he was averaging 5 goals and 2.2 contested marks.

Newcombe had 1 pre season in the AFL and so did Ginbey, Newcombe played 1.5 seasons and Ginbey will be in his 1st.

It's really not that hard, and you say here.

"He's not explosive enough" you don't watch him play? it's his whole game, he is an explosive and strength beast, he is extremely hard to tackle and he is super quick at exploding from stoppages. His class is shown by the stats i said, his impact from clearances to scores was the best in the competition and he was the 2nd best kick going inside 50, he has an absolute cannon of a right peg and kicks low flat 50m, he is actually better on the outside than the inside, and is at his best doing a 50/50 split because of how explosive he is from stoppages.

Please watch him play.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Let’s do the comparison at the same age instead.

Ginbey at 18:
14.5 disposals a game
6 kicks
2.7 inside 50s
7.5 contested possessions
2.5 clearances
0.2 goals 0 goal assists 2.7 score involvements
7.2 tackles
1.2 marks
184 metres gained

Newcombe at 18:
1 vfl practice match

Newcombe missed his 18 year old season due to covid, don't be naive, comparing a player who had 1 AFL pre season to another in his first AFL pre season, with one being slightly older and with half a year more experience, but showing on a production level he is so far ahead it's funny even talking about.

And as i just said with talent, you just need to watch Newcombe play.

"He's not explosive enough" you don't watch him play? it's his whole game, he is an explosive and strength beast, he is extremely hard to tackle and he is super quick at exploding from stoppages. His class is shown by the stats i said, his impact from clearances to scores was the best in the competition and he was the 2nd best kick going inside 50, he has an absolute cannon of a right peg and kicks low flat 50m, he is actually better on the outside than the inside, and is at his best doing a 50/50 split because of how explosive he is from stoppages.

 

[Shueygod]

Newcombe missed his 18 year old season due to covid, don't be naive, comparing a player who had 1 AFL pre season to another in his first AFL pre season, with one being slightly older and with half a year more experience, but showing on a production level he is so far ahead it's funny even talking about.

And as i just said with talent, you just need to watch Newcombe play.

Comparing a 20 year old to an 18 year old is ridiculous, preseasons become irrelevant when there is that big a gap between their physical development. Newcombe missed his 18 year old season as he wasn’t drafted, there’s a difference.

There’s also a difference from having a nice long kick (which I agree with) and class.

It’s the difference in hands, he’s simply not as clean as the Uber elite mids.

Do you think Newcombe will ever get a tag in his career?

Look at the top ten mids right now and they are all the cleanest in the afl or the most explosive.

Oliver/Bont/LDU/Trac as examples.

I just don’t see Newcombe having that capability, not a diss on him. Will Day and Ginbey are more likely to reach that level for that reason alone.