Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Saab NLAW]

Do you just talk?

I stated we aren’t high for normal clearances because we don’t score enough to get more opportunities to get clearances, unlike a few others. “The differential is probably the better stat, because using pure averages is often beneficial to higher scoring teams, more opportunities for clearances etc.”

Day has missed games, Worpel/Newcombe had a couple games playing as fwds, the rotation hasn’t been the same so individually it isn’t super important.

Reeves is 2nd for HTA, Marc Pittonet was 1st. He’s averaging 28 hitouts and beat Tim English comprehensively on the weekend.

He’s a good young ruck who’s giving us first use, he’s still young for a ruck and has stuff to improve on but what he’s good at is giving us first use.

Goal assists doesn’t matter because our forwardline has been poor.

Metres gained isnt a stat that’s ever dominated by midfielders, you’d rather outside players with it, half backs and wingers.

However metres gained hasnt gotta lot to do with a midfield group, you spoke about eye test, if you’ve ever watched our midfield, you’d know by stats they win it. But they’re also filled with some really good user and different dynamics. Newcombe, Day, Ward, MacKenzie etc

Hawks are 4th for centre clearance differential as mentioned and 4th for clearances as a whole.

9th for centre clearances (totals) but again “The differential is probably the better stat, because using pure averages is often beneficial to higher scoring teams, more opportunities for clearances etc.” where’d you get your 18th from?

Anyway, you’ve just misunderstood what I originally said and you can’t argue against the stats given, it’s a well known thing, as is our lacking forwardline.

Cherry picking stats to try and prove a point

Good luck with it, I'm out lol

What a bunch of nutters

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Cherry picking stats to try and prove a point

Good luck with it, I'm out lol

What a bunch of nutters

No worries buddy

 

[My Tilly]

Newcombe is more like Petracca imho

Have to admit, have not watched Newcombe as closely as you obviously have but in the matches I have, I don't see any comparable trait to Petracca other than they can both kick the ball long distances.

Petracca started off slowly, often inconsistent for quite some time and I don't see that in Newcombe. He appears to be holding his own already.
But Petracca was kicking goals on the run outside fifty and showing glimpses of his ridiculous potential in his first season. His athleticism was off charts. Even took a couple of screamers as he had a brilliant vertical leap.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Have to admit, have not watched Newcombe as closely as you obviously have but in the matches I have, I don't see any comparable trait to Petracca other than they can both kick the ball long distances.

Petracca started off slowly, often inconsistent for quite some time and I don't see that in Newcombe. He appears to be holding his own already.
But Petracca was kicking goals on the run outside fifty and showing glimpses of his ridiculous potential in his first season. His athleticism was off charts. Even took a couple of screamers as he had a brilliant vertical leap.

Newcombe has really strong hands above his head, he hasn't had much chance to show off his leap, but i see similarities with their build, and the way they play as good kicks who can sometimes turn the ball over, but they're both big strong lads who are really hard to tackle and are both explosive and quick.

Although Newcombe has started as a midfielder rather than a fwd, but in terms of the line breaking you were talking about, 100% believe he is this.

Fox Footy mentioned Newcombe, Day and Worpel? as leg drivers, those who drive out of stoppages.

 

[Vindicater]

Newcombe has nowhere near the burst that Petracca has.

He has the strength but not the burst.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Have to admit, have not watched Newcombe as closely as you obviously have but in the matches I have, I don't see any comparable trait to Petracca other than they can both kick the ball long distances.

Petracca started off slowly, often inconsistent for quite some time and I don't see that in Newcombe. He appears to be holding his own already.
But Petracca was kicking goals on the run outside fifty and showing glimpses of his ridiculous potential in his first season. His athleticism was off charts. Even took a couple of screamers as he had a brilliant vertical leap.

A comparison can be made due to their body types.

Duke lacks the natural athleticism and freakish ability of Petracca.

The thing to be excited about is his swift progression, which has continued into this season.

He can actually do everything you need an elite modern footballer to do. Composure, strength, tackling, one-touch, strong overhead, penetrating kick, ability to play forward.
He's only completed two pre-seasons in an elite level program to this point in his career.

The big question now will be where how high his ceiling is. Two weeks ago he was two marks shy of the elusive AFL quadruple double. The following week he's recording 19 contested possessions and kicking 2 goals.
He has a perfectly rounded game, so now the challenge will be to consistently show it as this young team progresses.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Newcombe has nowhere near the burst that Petracca has.

He has the strength but not the burst.

Not many do. Petracca has a very freakish side step and agility aswell despite being 90 odd kg

Newcombe is very similar and that’s where the comparison comes from a play style point of view, it’s never really comparisons of ability or talent because everyone’s is different.

 

[PenAndPaper]

Cherry picking stats to try and prove a point

Good luck with it, I'm out lol

What a bunch of nutters

Still waiting for you to tell us who the best performing midfields in the competition are...

 

[theiaofseed]

Hawks are ranked 9th for clearances.

A team with such a dominant midfield should also be ranked high for i50's, Hawks are ranked 17th.

Let's have a look at some individual stats:

Hawks highest CP average is Worpel at #13 then the next is at #26.

Centre clearances, Worpel is equal 9th, next best is at Newcombe at 34.

Disposals, hawks don't have anyone in the top 30.

Reeves is doing well in the ruck and very promising, but I wouldn't go as far as to say he's one of the best.

Can't see any of the Hawks midfielders in the top 50 for goal assists

Metres gained, can't see a Hawk midfielder in the top 40

Just checked the AFL website for stats, Hawks ranked last for centre clearances...uh oh lol can't be bothered anymore

So yeah nah, cherry picking stats

Look harder then, also how m,any midfielders are actually in the top 40?

Hawthorn +13 for centre clearances

So you want to talk about cherry picking stats

 

[matey]

Newk has a bigger heart than Petracca!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

What’s this then?

 

[Some Idiot]

Resting key players for a near bottom of the ladder clash is a little suspicious.

 

[endure]

Perhaps Mitchell had the inside word that the new club would be coming in relatively soon.

Therefore he knew he had to refresh the list with some quality draft picks asap, before the drafts become compromised again.

Whichever clubs are down at the bottom of the ladder around 2026-2030 may find themselves there for a long, long time.

This could very well be the case. And Mitchell has experienced first-hand as a player the success that can come not only with a high-end draft haul, but also how to succeed during the introduction of new clubs.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Resting key players for a near bottom of the ladder clash is a little suspicious.

If you had watched any of our games prior to last weekend you would understand

And if you did watch them, you would see that CJ has been low on confidence and Bruest has looked sore

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Resting key players for a near bottom of the ladder clash is a little suspicious.

Quite a few hawks supporters wanted CJ and Punky out/rested last week.

 

[peetoo]

Resting key players for a near bottom of the ladder clash is a little suspicious.

key. Meaning whoever fits your narrative at the time

 

[The 747]

What’s this then?

Jay Clark like most journos reading BF for material?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Jay Clark like most journos reading BF for material?

Jay is just repeating what has been a common thread throughout the game day commentary every week for the last month.

I reckon there’s a few Bigfooty heads who were popping in here a couple of months back that took a bit of a turn every time Anthony Hudson or Joey Montagna spoke about how well our midfield was going this year.

 

[The 747]

Jay is just repeating what has been a common thread throughout the game day commentary every week for the last month.

I reckon there’s a few Bigfooty heads who were popping in here a couple of months back that took a bit of a turn every time Anthony Hudson or Joey Montagna spoke about how well our midfield was going this year.

It's on the up and up!



*won 1 game

 

[Blackhawk42]

It's on the up and up!



*won 1 game

Been through this so many times, but let's attempt a different approach for you.

In 2017 Brisbane won 5 games, finished 18th and had a percentage of 74.
In 2018 Brisbane won 5 games but finished with a percentage of 89.
In 2019 Brisbane made the top 4.

The percentage in 2018 was THE indicator of their improvement. The following season the wins came flooding in and they've been a top 4 side ever since.

Currently you're being given evidence to suggest that Hawthorn are improving in an area of the ground that was a weakness, and the percentage increase over the past 3 games also confirms that improvement is spreading throughout the side.

Quite literally that is all any Hawthorn supporter in here is trying to argue. Your perception that we chose to go backwards (or tank) was simply an optical decision to 'go back to go forwards'. We've actually gone forward in the area of concern (midfield) faster than I expected. The wins will come, whether that be this season or next season. The path is clear however.

 

[HairyO]

Resting key players for a near bottom of the ladder clash is a little suspicious.

Breust is getting older and this week off was probably always planned. CJ has been down a fair bit over the last couple of weeks so having the week off or playing at Box Hill makes sense, given we will have a lot of defenders to choose from this weekend.

Plus, Harley Reid !!

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Not tanking

 

[HairyO]

Not tanking

Want to point to CJ's performances over the last month as evidence that he is in our best 26 currently?

 

[The 747]

Been through this so many times, but let's attempt a different approach for you.

In 2017 Brisbane won 5 games, finished 18th and had a percentage of 74.
In 2018 Brisbane won 5 games but finished with a percentage of 89.
In 2019 Brisbane made the top 4.

The percentage in 2018 was THE indicator of their improvement. The following season the wins came flooding in and they've been a top 4 side ever since.

Currently you're being given evidence to suggest that Hawthorn are improving in an area of the ground that was a weakness, and the percentage increase over the past 3 games also confirms that improvement is spreading throughout the side.

Quite literally that is all any Hawthorn supporter in here is trying to argue. Your perception that we chose to go backwards (or tank) was simply an optical decision to 'go back to go forwards'. We've actually gone forward in the area of concern (midfield) faster than I expected. The wins will come, whether that be this season or next season. The path is clear however.

Hawthorn are not Brisbane.

Here is a different example:

In 2019 North Melbourne won 10 games with a percentage of 99.45
in 2020 North Melbourne won 3 games with a percentage of 71.2

And here is the reality:

In 2022 Hawthorn won 8 games with a percentage of 89.8
in 2023 Hawthorn have won 1 game with a percentage of 65.1. Average that over a season and it will look a lot like North of 2020.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Hawthorn are not Brisbane.

Here is a different example:

In 2019 North Melbourne won 10 games with a percentage of 99.45
in 2020 North Melbourne won 3 games with a percentage of 71.2

And here is the reality:

In 2022 Hawthorn won 8 games with a percentage of 89.8
in 2023 Hawthorn have won 1 game with a percentage of 65.1. Average that over a season and it will look a lot like North of 2020.

North Melbourne 2019 weren't a rebuilding club. Hawthorn 2023 is. Much like Brisbane 2018.

Will we be top 4 next season? Probably unlikely. But you want to see improvements which we currently are, and that Brisbane example is as good as any to model on.