Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Elmer_Hauser]

I would back Hawthorn's vision and rebuild for future success over Essendon's (for example) which seems like a recipe for status quo mediocrity (especially whilst Dodoro is still there)

 

[The 747]

I’m actually not sure on Stephens contract situation, but based on how wrong you are about Meek, I’m going to suggest he was nowhere near being delisted either.

Was not going to be delisted, was OOC next year and we would have expected him to be playing some senior footy in 2023.

 

[Saint]

Like St Kilda.

Melbourne got it right the third time.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Did you just stamp “I have no clue” on your forehead by accident?

Meek just won the Peel B&F and was contracted for next year, with Freo asking for a second round pick, yet you think he was about to be delisted?

I’m actually not sure on Stephens contract situation, but based on how wrong you are about Meek, I’m going to suggest he was nowhere near being delisted either.

No surer sign it’s the off season than weird West Coast supporters coming out of the woodwork, makes me almost miss PerthBoy86

 

[Westcoast88]

This is the same as me saying your club has an illicit drug culture.

I'm still sure you had a good portion of premiership players playing last season.

BTW, I expect us to not do well and I give you my blessing to fully dine out on it if/when we finish on the bottom.

No its not the same, comparing racism and unborn children to illicit drugs is in no way comparable, what your club did was blatantly disgusting, shame on you and shame on your club.

 

[Westcoast88]

No surer sign it’s the off season than weird West Coast supporters coming out of the woodwork, makes me almost miss PerthBoy86

Certainly is weird when Hawthorn supporters try to take the moral high ground. It goes beyond football what your club did pal. Disgusting.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Certainly is weird when Hawthorn supporters try to take the moral high ground. It goes beyond football what your club did pal. Disgusting.

Yeah righto turbo. How many of these junk threads are you proposing? Perth boy for all his faults was a tireless thread creator. Can you keep up? I guess we’ll see.

 

[Westcoast88]

Yeah righto turbo. How many of these junk threads are you proposing? Perth boy for all his faults was a tireless thread creator. Can you keep up? I guess we’ll see.

You know what I wont keep up because there's only so much time in ones life that one should devote to an internet forum. If you think it makes you better than me that you spend more time on here then that's fine with me, if that's a win to you, you have much bigger problems than me. And with that I'm off.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

You know what I wont keep up because there's only so much time in ones life that one should devote to an internet forum. If you think it makes you better than me that you spend more time on here then that's fine with me, if that's a win to you, you have much bigger problems than me. And with that I'm off.

"since I achieved all my goals as a mainboard troll in one thread, there was no need for a second."

 

[Goomba1973]

Hawks won't win a game next season. By far the worst list in the AFL and probably the worst midfield ever in the AFL era.

Dunno about that, Our midfield last year was terrible, pretty sure our AFLW side has more clearances and contested possessions last season

 

[NetworkNerd]

Dunno about that, Our midfield last year was terrible, pretty sure our AFLW side has more clearances and contested possessions last season

You still have Kelly, Gaff and Schuey. Hawks have...

 

[Blackhawk42]

An honest question to Hawks fans then. After finishing 13th this year, do you expect to finish higher in 2023, or even 2024?

Based on what would the team be getting better in 2023 than 2022? By virtue of younger players getting older. I'm just not sure there's anyone on the list who is All Australian level other than Sicily. It doesn't look like the ceiling is that much higher for the current playing list.

Mitch Lewis, will probably go another level again, but his competition for KPF (Cameron, Lynch, McKay, Curnow, Hawkins, Hipwood), it's highly unlikely he'd be AA contention.

None of Hawthorn's midfielders look like AA material and Hardwick and CJ weren't in contention this year and might have gone close to their own ceilings too.

When the coach is saying they don't want to just sneak into finals and doesn't want to put a time frame on when they will, that's not saying a lot which is very positive.

Hardwick and Moore were All Australian quality this season but snubbed.

Jai Newcombe has the scope to be at that level within 24 months.

But, as was made evident by the number 1 ranked defender in the AFL not making the AA team in favour of a certain Cat who missed 4 games with suspension, 2 with injury and was tagged out of 4 others, All Australian selection means jack shit nowadays.

To answer the first and most quantifiable question, we will likely take a step backwards in the win-loss columns in 2023, but it may not be as drastic as everybody expects. Lewis, Moore, Jiath, Scrimshaw, Hardwick, Newcombe, Day and Reeves are a talented core group in that 21 to 25 year age range. All likely have their best footy ahead of them.
If they fire and are supported by the experience of Breust, Amon and Frost and youthful exuberance already shown by Ward, Macdonald, Butler and DGB then Sam Mitchell might just keep his job beyond 2023 despite the best efforts of David King and Kane Cornes.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Amon Meek and Stephens are not as good as Omeara and Mitchell. Most neutral observers know this. You can cherry pick stats to support your argument all you like but O'meara and Mitchell were better players and deep down you know it but your emotional attachment (cough bias) to this issue won't allow you to admit it.

Amon is better than O'Meara.

At least according to the umpires and All Australian selectors. And Sam Mitchell.

I assume you know better though?

 

[Luv_our_club]

I don't think post-season tanking counts. So many clubs tank in the off-season by trading away their current competitiveness for their future success.

 

[freddy mercury]

They'll beat North by 16 goals.

 

[SA HAWK]

No 1 pick should be adequate punishment.

 

[iameviljez]

Hardwick and Moore were All Australian quality this season but snubbed.

Jai Newcombe has the scope to be at that level within 24 months.

But, as was made evident by the number 1 ranked defender in the AFL not making the AA team in favour of a certain Cat who missed 4 games with suspension, 2 with injury and was tagged out of 4 others, All Australian selection means jack s**t nowadays.

To answer the first and most quantifiable question, we will likely take a step backwards in the win-loss columns in 2023, but it may not be as drastic as everybody expects. Lewis, Moore, Jiath, Scrimshaw, Hardwick, Newcombe, Day and Reeves are a talented core group in that 21 to 25 year age range. All likely have their best footy ahead of them.
If they fire and are supported by the experience of Breust, Amon and Frost and youthful exuberance already shown by Ward, Macdonald, Butler and DGB then Sam Mitchell might just keep his job beyond 2023 despite the best efforts of David King and Kane Cornes.

AA quality is slightly delusional, especially given that we are talking about the side that finished 13th.

22 players from an 18 team comp means each side can only really expect a single player per AA side on average. To be an AA player in a bottom six team, you need to be an absolute standout like Taylor from GWS.

 

[Blackhawk42]

AA quality is slightly delusional, especially given that we are talking about the side that finished 13th.

22 players from an 18 team comp means each side can only really expect a single player per AA side on average. To be an AA player in a bottom six team, you need to be an absolute standout like Taylor from GWS.

Sicily had a better year than Taylor and Stewart. I'll die on that hill.

 

[iameviljez]

Sicily had a better year than Taylor and Stewart. I'll die on that hill.

I barely saw enough of Sicily or Taylor to really know tbh

 

[Bradkli]

I barely saw enough of Sicily or Taylor to really know tbh

Sicily was the #1 defender in the comp last season. His numbers were elite across just about every key defensive area. This, despite playing in a side who has the worst midfield in the comp which resulted in 50+ inside 50s to contend with each week. How he was not the first picked defender in the AA side was criminal.

Taylor had a fantastic season, but Sicily was better than him, Stewart and Maynard who all got selected.

 

[Shack18]

They'll beat North by 16 goals.

Mmmm not so sue about that, lol

 

[freddy mercury]

Mmmm not so sue about that, lol

12?

 

[Foucault1989]

You can compare it to North all you want

Its not the same

It's the same.

 

[Foucault1989]

We got 2nd rounder plus a ruckman who is likely best 23 next season for O'Meara. Happy with that deal

The Mitchell deal is weaker but there was no real market for him. If Stephens becomes a decent player we will have done well out of it though

If there is no market for Mitchell you keep him! He would comfortably be in your top 3 mids. He is worth more to Hawthorn's young midfield than what you got in return.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Sicily was the #1 defender in the comp last season. His numbers were elite across just about every key defensive area. This, despite playing in a side who has the worst midfield in the comp which resulted in 50+ inside 50s to contend with each week. How he was not the first picked defender in the AA side was criminal.

Taylor had a fantastic season, but Sicily was better than him, Stewart and Maynard who all got selected.

Sicily wasn’t in the 2022 All Australian team, so he wasn't considered amongst the best 7 defenders in the AFL.

You need to leave your bias out of it because if he truly was #1 defender in the AFL, the selectors would have found a spot for him.