Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Kane McGoodwin]

Hardwick and Moore were All Australian quality this season but snubbed.

Jai Newcombe has the scope to be at that level within 24 months.

But, as was made evident by the number 1 ranked defender in the AFL not making the AA team in favour of a certain Cat who missed 4 games with suspension, 2 with injury and was tagged out of 4 others, All Australian selection means jack s**t nowadays.

To answer the first and most quantifiable question, we will likely take a step backwards in the win-loss columns in 2023, but it may not be as drastic as everybody expects. Lewis, Moore, Jiath, Scrimshaw, Hardwick, Newcombe, Day and Reeves are a talented core group in that 21 to 25 year age range. All likely have their best footy ahead of them.
If they fire and are supported by the experience of Breust, Amon and Frost and youthful exuberance already shown by Ward, Macdonald, Butler and DGB then Sam Mitchell might just keep his job beyond 2023 despite the best efforts of David King and Kane Cornes.

Lol, Hardwick & Moore weren't snubbed from AA selection.

It's surprising the Hawks didn't make the finals given all the unlucky AA players they have.

At least Mitchell is taking the rebuild seriously & has trades out experienced players to get more games into the younger players.

I expect the Hawks will he close to the spoon next season, but short term pain for a likely quicker rebuild.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

If there is no market for Mitchell you keep him! He would comfortably be in your top 3 mids. He is worth more to Hawthorn's young midfield than what you got in return.

He’s worth as much as anyone is willing to pay.

A 21yr old former first round mid and a couple of picks that could be used to trade up was the only price any was willing to pay, and that’s totally fine for most Hawks supporters considering he’s a limited midfielder(can’t play anywhere but midfield) who’s best season was 4 years ago.

 

[hawkman]

If there is no market for Mitchell you keep him! He would comfortably be in your top 3 mids. He is worth more to Hawthorn's young midfield than what you got in return.

So he stays for another year taking the spot of young player and he leaves at the end of next season for even less

 

[Bradkli]

Sicily wasn’t in the 2022 All Australian team, so he wasn't considered amongst the best 7 defenders in the AFL.

You need to leave your bias out of it because if he truly was #1 defender in the AFL, the selectors would have found a spot for him.

Not bias at all…I’m as harsh on our players as anyone. Sicily was elite in nearly every category.

Tom Stewart at an average season by his standards. He missed 5 games, was subbed out in one and was tagged and beaten in a couple of others. He also played a less defensive role due to how good Sam de koning was. He had no right to make the all-Australian side this season, especially over Sicily.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Not bias at all…I’m as harsh on our players as anyone. Sicily was elite in nearly every category.

Tom Stewart at an average season by his standards. He missed 5 games, was subbed out in one and was tagged and beaten in a couple of others. He also played a less defensive role due to how good Sam de koning was. He had no right to make the all-Australian side this season, especially over Sicily.

You claimed Sicily was the best defender in the AFL... not just better than Stewart.

He wasn't & that is a completely biased view!

 

[theiaofseed]

You claimed Sicily was the best defender in the AFL... not just better than Stewart.

He wasn't & that is a completely biased view!

Kane Cornes and Kevin Bartlett are on the AA panel, sorry if I don't take their opinions seriously.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Kane Cornes is on the AA panel, sorry if I don't take their opinions seriously.

I ignore Kornes too, but there are other selectors too who all didn't rate Sicily in the top-7 defenders.

If he was near #1, he would have been in the team comfortably.

 

[Bradkli]

You claimed Sicily was the best defender in the AFL... not just better than Stewart.

He wasn't & that is a completely biased view!

Apologies…I worded it incorrectly. Statistically he was the #1 defender. He also received the most coaches votes by a defender in the comp. I’m sure the selectors know a lot more than 18 coaches.

Anyone that watched football last season, other than you would agree sicily was stiff to miss out.

 

[theiaofseed]

I ignore Kornes too, but there are other selectors too who all didn't rate Sicily in the top-7 defenders.

If he was near #1, he would have been in the team comfortably.

AA team has the same credibility as the Brownlow picking the best player, if you want to give it credibility good for you.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Apologies…I worded it incorrectly. Statistically he was the #1 defender. He also received the most coaches votes by a defender in the comp. I’m sure the selectors know a lot more than 18 coaches.

Anyone that watched football last season, other than you would agree sicily was stiff to miss out.

Statistics are not everything in AFL.

There are different ranking systems & none are definitive.

Much of what Champion Data come up with is a nonsense as there is no perfect statistical tool to rank players.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

AA team has the same credibility as the Brownlow picking the best player, if you want to give it credibility good for you.

Yet you apparently have more credibility as a ranking expert lol!

 

[theiaofseed]

Yet you apparently have more credibility as a ranking expert lol!

Yes, when you have panel member addmitting they don't watch games yet vote on awards how are you meant to take it seriously??

 

[Bradkli]

Statistics are not everything in AFL.

There are different ranking systems & none are definitive.

Much of what Champion Data come up with is a nonsense as there is no perfect statistical tool to rank players.

Definitely agree re stats but you simply can’t ignore this:

“Ranking amongst key defenders, the 27-year-old is number one in player ratings, disposals, uncontested possessions, metres gained, marks, rebound 50s, inside 50s and score involvements as well as second in intercept possessions.” That whilst all playing for a below average team.

The 18 coaches also can’t all be wrong. His omission was one of the worst in years.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yes, when you have panel member addmitting they don't watch games yet vote on awards how are you meant to take it seriously??

Yet there are other panel members who also think you are wrong...

 

[theiaofseed]

Yet there are other panel members who also think you are wrong...

Who on the panel do you believe watches enough football to make an education assessment?

 

[The 747]

Who on the panel do you believe watches enough football to make an education assessment?

How does one assess education by watching football?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Who on the panel do you believe watches enough football to make an education assessment?

The AA panel would have far more experience than you.

Just because Kornes is an idiot, doesn't mean all the selectors are. He is only 1 vote.

 

[theiaofseed]

How does one assess education by watching football?

Clearly meant educated o/o

 

[Foucault1989]

So he stays for another year taking the spot of young player and he leaves at the end of next season for even less

A kid getting pushed around. Trust me I've seen many young mids get broken because they were over exposed too soon.

 

[Frank Grimes]

View attachment 1540515
"since I achieved all my goals as a mainboard troll in one thread, there was no need for a second."

That's some good trolling. Good, not great.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

That's some good trolling. Good, not great.

Cool.

 

[Goomba1973]

You still have Kelly, Gaff and Schuey. Hawks have...

Shuey was cooked last season and one more significant hammy or calf injury he probably pull the pin, Gaff is an outside runner and not so good at the contest, Kelly is best suited to first ball receiver where he can run, carry and deliver like how Geelong used him not as in inside mid , how we are trying to use him, Yeo is a beast when fit but that is not very often any more...
Hawks had a machine in Mitchell , Ward will go well and Newcombe is going to be a star. I see more upside in your mids than I see in ours.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

That attitude has certainly served Carlton and Essendon well over the last 20 odd years

How many premierships have they won the last 20 years when your comparing them to us?. If any club was going to buck the trend with how we have gone about this it's us. We have a coach with a to great tactical brain who is driven as all hell to see us at the top again. And that's not just what we think as supporters either it's common knowledge he is well respected.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

What a deal! You gave up Jaeger O'Meara, a portion of your salary cap and you got a fringe player and second rounder from a finals team, what a bargain!

Yeah a superstar he barely finished top 5 in the BnF in any of the years he was with us. If you actually watched any of our games and not got brainwashed by Kane Cornes you would understand he wasn't what we drafted him for. Far from it. Sure he will be a decent contributor for Freo but he ain't Serong or Brayshaw. There's some real pisstakes on here. Facepalm stuff I gotta say.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Who plays on the wing. If the promise is to give Amon more on-ball time, the Hawks are going to find out why Port didn't put him in the guts very often (He's soft, but he runs lots).

I wouldn't be surprised to see S.Mitchell going for a full flood-defence and then sprint-up-the ground in attack type of game style. One not suited to O'Meara and Mitchell, but suited to Amon.

They're certainly going to need to flood back as they're going to lose a lot of centre clearances.

As opposed to the mass of clearances we have won the past 5 years?. You guys aren't getting it so there's no point even arguing anymore.