Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Rich01]

Clarkson left the list in a bad way.
His last few years were reminiscent of Brad Scott’s time at North.

Difference was be delivered them a three peat so was justified in continuing to push.

Gutting the list and starting from scratch is the right thing for Mitchell to do.

And I doubt hawks fans mind too much considering that where they are now is the result of having such a successful era.

 

[PT Bar None]

Blatantly open.

AFL needed to come out after the North assistance and announce "And this is the last time this will ever be done". But they don't because in the next few years you can guarantee one of the potential TV market teams will need propping up again. Otherwise it will remain an endnote in bottom teams planning.



Mind you, you wouldn't want to lose to the Hawks next year. Or heaven forbid, finish lower than. That would be absolute panic stations, wouldn't it?

 

[geelong_crazy26]

WTF. I have never seen this level of blatant tanking acceptance by a club. Sam Mitchell outright said he wanted to tank and not meddle around in the middle. Their trade period.

Are the ******* AFL going to step in and do something? AFL need to go down hard on Hawks and strip them of picks

I've never seen another club purposely and blatantly tank. It's unfair they are doing that to obtain a generational player in Harley Reid

They are completely compromising the draft!!!

Who the F is Harley Reid??

 

[Blackhawk42]

Who the F is Harley Reid??

Dustin Hodge

 

[PzBlinky]

Blatantly open.

AFL needed to come out after the North assistance and announce "And this is the last time this will ever be done". But they don't because in the next few years you can guarantee one of the potential TV market teams will need propping up again. Otherwise it will remain an endnote in bottom teams planning.



Mind you, you wouldn't want to lose to the Hawks next year. Or heaven forbid, finish lower than. That would be absolute panic stations, wouldn't it?

I would be 100% happy to lose to the Hawks next year (again)... so long as the rest of the season also played out the same way as 2022.

 

[Bianconeri]

If the draft crop doesn’t improve rapidly over the next few years the Hawks have picked the worst possible time to go full rebuild.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

If the draft crop doesn’t improve rapidly over the next few years the Hawks have picked the worst possible time to go full rebuild.

Super draft predicted next year

But cool

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Dustin Hodge

I’m not sure we’ll be shit enough to get him. Would be a nice reward for being last though.

 

[Bianconeri]

Super draft predicted next year

But cool

This time last year this draft was supposed to be a super draft for talls.

 

[AFDogs]

I think Hawks will surprise a few teams and run some off their feet. They picked up a few handy wins and some honorable losses this year. Sammy Mitchell will have them playing the absolute best they can because he looks like he's a gun coach.

 

[Blackhawk42]

If the draft crop doesn’t improve rapidly over the next few years the Hawks have picked the worst possible time to go full rebuild.

This comment could quite literally be made at any point in history.

It's completely redundant.

PS. With a likely Tassie introduction around 2027 it's actually the perfect time to embark on a rebuild.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This time last year this draft was supposed to be a super draft for talls.

Was it though? I think it was just said that there were a lot more talls int his draft than the previous one, but as it turned out there were less than anticipated. Not sure anyone ever called it a super draft for talls.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

This time last year this draft was supposed to be a super draft for talls.

No it wasnt, it's been shown early the talent for next season as majority of the talent was playing regular state footy

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I think Hawks will surprise a few teams and run some off their feet. They picked up a few handy wins and some honorable losses this year. Sammy Mitchell will have them playing the absolute best they can because he looks like he's a gun coach.

We got the better of the Cats and Lions, lost by a kick to the Pies and Blues, and gave Melbourne and Freo a good run for their money. Had the better of the Swans and Bombers before going home at 3/4 time in both games and getting routed.

We’ll likely feel the loss of Gunston and O’Meara despite Gunston only really getting hold of some of the lesser teams, and then there’s the loss of Mitchell which I’m happy we’d already started to move passed, as I was growing tired of his round the corner kicks to no one and commanding the ball when he was in a worse position than others.

I can see arguments for us being the spoon favorites and I can also see how we could win similar or more games than 2022. Development of our 20-25 yr olds will tell the story, as that is the large majority of our list now.

 

[Robroy22]

Surely Geelong will be able to buy pick 1 next year. I mean they only got pick 7 this year, have to be able to improve on that you would think....I mean with their clout and contacts

 

[Ashman23]

Surely Geelong will be able to buy pick 1 next year. I mean they only got pick 7 this year, have to be able to improve on that you would think....I mean with their clout and contacts

If that happens, GC must've had a bad year......

 

[Mojo]

If the draft crop doesn’t improve rapidly over the next few years the Hawks have picked the worst possible time to go full rebuild.

The one thing I always note is the football public seemingly appears to be one year behind the perspective from the club itself.

Hawthorn haven't just begun embarking on this rebuild, it's been in full swing for 2-3 years; the high turnover from the past few seasons has been very apparent.

 

[Sphynx]

Was it though? I think it was just said that there were a lot more talls int his draft than the previous one, but as it turned out there were less than anticipated. Not sure anyone ever called it a super draft for talls.

It was most definitely considered a fantastic draft for talls this time last year.

Lemmey was the #1 favorite along with Ashcroft this time last year.

Keeler, Broadbent, Lewis Hayes and Busslinger were all considered strong top 10 chances.

Barnett was another viewed as a top 10 chance in December last year.

Tom Scully having a barnstorming first few rounds of the SANFL u/18's only added to it.

That was until they were able to formally physically test a few of them for the first time and things changed for the likes of Broadbent, Lemmey, Keeler etc.....

 

[Bianconeri]

This comment could quite literally be made at any point in history.

It's completely redundant.

PS. With a likely Tassie introduction around 2027 it's actually the perfect time to embark on a rebuild.

I think the last three drafts have had a staggering low number of players picked compared to most drafts. Could be wrong as I don’t have the exact numbers but if that trend continues then I think it’s a poor time to rebuild.

If you think you’ll be done rebuilding 2027 it’s a good move but I think that’s a very optimistic view and that Hawthorn’s rebuild will be further impeded by the tassie team taking all the talent.

 

[Sphynx]

I think the last three drafts have had a staggering low number of players picked compared to most drafts. Could be wrong as I don’t have the exact numbers but if that trend continues then I think it’s a poor time to rebuild.

If you think you’ll be done rebuilding 2027 it’s a good move but I think that’s a very optimistic view and that Hawthorn’s rebuild will be further impeded by the tassie team taking all the talent.

Hawk's will be OK.

They have 4-5 years to bottom out and get talent before that happens, they already have 3 years or so under their belt now, going back to DGB.

It's the sides that hit the skids in 3-4 years that are in trouble.

It's almost impossible to say exactly who that will be. But as an exercise.:


Possibly the Dogs, they have a heap of top end tall talent, but Bont/Macrae and the rest of their midfield unit will then be into their 30's.

Potentially a Richmond/Geelong - Both have comparatively lower numbers of better younger players to most sides and most of their current gun older players will be done around this point. Geelong likely lose Hawkins, Duncan, Dangerfield, Stewart, Blicavs amongst others in the next 4 years.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I think the last three drafts have had a staggering low number of players picked compared to most drafts. Could be wrong as I don’t have the exact numbers but if that trend continues then I think it’s a poor time to rebuild.

If you think you’ll be done rebuilding 2027 it’s a good move but I think that’s a very optimistic view and that Hawthorn’s rebuild will be further impeded by the tassie team taking all the talent.

That trend exists because clubs are more particular about talent acquisition. One small deficiency is enough to see an 18 year old passed over. I personally don't believe clubs were as pedantic a decade ago. Plus we have the SSP period and mid season rookie draft. Add all the kids taken in the latter and you're above 70 new faces.

We've also now had 2019, 20, 21 and 22 we're we've turned over the list heavily. The planning from Sam Mitchell and Mark McKenzie is that next year is our final year of hitting the draft hard before we start to attempt topping up with mature free agents. The club believes 2024 onwards is the true start of our window.

Something has gone drastically wrong if the 'rebuild' is still happening in 2027.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It was most definitely considered a fantastic draft for talls this time last year.

Lemmey was the #1 favorite along with Ashcroft this time last year.

Keeler, Broadbent, Lewis Hayes and Busslinger were all considered strong top 10 chances.

Barnett was another viewed as a top 10 chance in December last year.

Tom Scully having a barnstorming first few rounds of the SANFL u/18's only added to it.

That was until they were able to formally physically test a few of them for the first time and things changed for the likes of Broadbent, Lemmey, Keeler etc.....

Was it dubbed a super draft? I don’t think so.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I think the last three drafts have had a staggering low number of players picked compared to most drafts. Could be wrong as I don’t have the exact numbers but if that trend continues then I think it’s a poor time to rebuild.

If you think you’ll be done rebuilding 2027 it’s a good move but I think that’s a very optimistic view and that Hawthorn’s rebuild will be further impeded by the tassie team taking all the talent.

The idea that we’re near the start of the rebuild is one the media push, but it completely ignores the players in our best 22 and who were/are top 15 in our B&F who are 25 and under, and the reason the club were willing to cut some older heads.

 

[Sphynx]

Was it dubbed a super draft? I don’t think so.

Next year isn't dubbed a super draft just because of the talls either.

In fact it's the broad range of different type players that people are calling it that.

I don't necessarily think someone like Duursma as an example is/will any better than Humphrey, Rachele, Hollands or Hayden Young as an example.


The discussion was surrounding the talls and the discussion vs next year. The original poster was correct in stating that 12 months ago, the 2022 draft was described as a a great draft specifically for talls.

 

[perplexed]

It was most definitely considered a fantastic draft for talls this time last year.

Lemmey was the #1 favorite along with Ashcroft this time last year.

Keeler, Broadbent, Lewis Hayes and Busslinger were all considered strong top 10 chances.

Barnett was another viewed as a top 10 chance in December last year.

Tom Scully having a barnstorming first few rounds of the SANFL u/18's only added to it.

That was until they were able to formally physically test a few of them for the first time and things changed for the likes of Broadbent, Lemmey, Keeler etc.....

This was a predicted top 20 for this years draft from Oct 2021. 8 out of 20 were talls.


View attachment Oct 2021.jpeg