Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[The Jet From Poowong]

I need an update from a couple of notorious Geelong posters in this thread.

Sending Jeremy Cameron in for surgery before the season is over, when he definitely could have played.
Interesting that the Cats look to be selecting a team that doesn't prioritise winning this weekend...

A form of tanking for picks. Compromising the competition and all

 

[Blackhawk42]

Cameron, Hawkins, Blicvas, Close and Rohan all ruled out.

Stanley and Guthrie need to pass fitness tests, which I'm sure they won't.

Definitely a FORM of tanking.

Still a lot of silence in here though.

 

[My Tilly]

Cameron, Hawkins, Blicvas, Close and Rohan all ruled out.

Stanley and Guthrie need to pass fitness tests, which I'm sure they won't.

Definitely a FORM of tanking.

Still a lot of silence in here though.

Even when Geelong tank, they still can't fall below 12th position

Maybe the Hawks need to send us the blueprint on just how to do it correctly.

 

[smish]

Even when Geelong tank, they still can't fall below 12th position

Maybe the Hawks need to send us the blueprint on just how to do it correctly.

Ahh, no man’s land. The best kind.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Ahh, no man’s land. The best kind.

It’s ok to have one season just out if you think you can reset and top up (probably what cats will try) it’s when they build up it’s a problem (us in 2019 and 2020)

 

[Chadwiko]

Hawks still have lower to sink before they'll climb the ladder properly.

 

[Philhawk]

Hawks still have lower to sink before they'll climb the ladder properly.

Interesting. What makes you say that?

 

[smish]

Hawks still have lower to sink before they'll climb the ladder properly.

This has got to be bait.

 

[Chadwiko]

Interesting. What makes you say that?

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

 

[smish]

I was wrong. This isn't bait.

 

[Philhawk]

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

Interesting. So just to clarify, North is ahead of Hawthorn in their rebuild - but require assistance/priority picks?

 

[TheFourPillars]

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

Apart from Sic none of those guys will be top 5 b/f. Frost won't play many games next year

 

[Blackhawk42]

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

I'll play this legitimately.

Sicily, Amon and Impey in particular will only be turning 32 when Day, Newcombe, Ward, MacDonald, Mackenzie, Weddle etc are entering the prime age group you just referenced.

I'd say that puts us in a better position from a list demographic perspective, ironically using your own argument against you.

 

[Chadwiko]

Interesting. So just to clarify, North is ahead of Hawthorn in their rebuild - but require assistance/priority picks?

"Require"? No.

"Entitled to"? Yes.

I see I've ruffled the Hawks feathers here and that's fine. You're of course allowed to be optimistic about your team.

Let's re-assess this time next year.

 

[peetoo]

Your playing list.

You're third on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

List will be similar age to hawks 2007-2008 during 2024.

List age games 2008. Hawks 22.7y 50games. Cats 23.3y 60 games

It’s the 40 games experience now the big difference, but that will be the same mid 2024

List ages are considerably higher across the league since expansion. All comparative. Not impossible though



As for old players, you are havin a larf. Most other clubs will have the retirement squeeze worse than the hawks
Again, it’s all comparative

 

[Philhawk]

"Require"? No.

"Entitled to"? Yes.

I see I've ruffled the Hawks feathers here and that's fine. You're of course allowed to be optimistic about your team.

Let's re-assess this time next year.

Ruffled? Not at all. Appreciate your valuable insight. I just assumed you were being obtuse when you suggested West Coast and North were ahead in terms of their rebuild.

 

[Chadwiko]

I just assumed you were being obtuse when you suggested West Coast and North were ahead in terms of their rebuild.

If it helps, please allow to utilise my extensive academic and professional experience to draft up an expert graph in MS paint to illustrate what I was trying to convey:

 

[Crankyhawk]

List will be similar age to hawks 2007-2008 during 2024.

List age games 2008. Hawks 22.7y 50games. Cats 23.3y 60 games

It’s the 40 games experience now the big difference, but that will be the same mid 2024

List ages are considerably higher across the league since expansion. All comparative. Not impossible though



As for old players, you are havin a larf. Most other clubs will have the retirement squeeze worse than the hawks
Again, it’s all comparative

though we do seem to struggle more than other clubs at keeping older players on the park (I compare what happened to many of our 3peat players seeming to retire at earlier age compared to Geelong or Richmond players - mind you there were other circumstances eg Roughie's cancer too - and that is partly on feel as opposed to having stats in front of me, it just feels like Hawks players fall off a cliff faster - Bruest the exception)

 

[Vindicater]

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

I mean, they are not going to rocket up the standings but I doubt they go backwards.

And using Frost as an example of best 22 is abit silly.

His absence from the lineup has been addition through subtraction this year for the Hawks.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I mean, they are not going to rocket up the standings but I doubt they go backwards.

And using Frost as an example of best 22 is abit silly.

His absence from the lineup has been addition through subtraction this year for the Hawks.

The funny thing about Frost is that he is every chance to be at North next year, and be their number 1 KPD.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

This is getting lots of responses because it’s amusing for how bad of a take it is.

Anyone who’s watched Hawthorn over the last month can see the growth in the side, which is exactly what the footy dept planned when they “gutted the list” and let the new mids build together.

I mean, it’s not just Hawks fans, Trealour and Dunkley both said on their podcast last week that they think we’ll play finals next year.

We’d have to have a bunch of things go wrong to go backwards with the amount of development left in the group.

 

[Vindicater]

The funny thing about Frost is that he is every chance to be at North next year, and be their number 1 KPD.

And he will be as shit there as he has been with you and Melbourne.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

And he will be as s**t there as he has been with you and Melbourne.

Tries hard and does lock down well, but the turnovers… ouch.

 

[Vindicater]

This is getting lots of responses because it’s amusing for how bad of a take it is.

Anyone who’s watched Hawthorn over the last month can see the growth in the side, which is exactly what the footy dept planned when they “gutted the list” and let the new mids build together.

I mean, it’s not just Hawks fans, Trealour and Dunkley both said on their podcast last week that they think we’ll play finals next year.

We’d have to have a bunch of things go wrong to go backwards with the amount of development left in the group.


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How have your injuries been this year?

I know players have missed time due to suspensions and I juries but have you had multiple important cogs out at a time.

The start of our decline can be linked to losing Draper and Ridley together as an example which threw everything out of whack structure wise.

 

[SSSSSS]

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

Brother...

You do realise we are the youngest list in the AFL and have fielded the youngest team every single game of the week?

I'm not sure we can bottom out any harder than we have already. Maybe if we get cruelled by injuries as we've been relatively blessed this season. But from a list building POV we've bottomed out this year.