Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Strapping Young Lad]

How have your injuries been this year?

I know players have missed time due to suspensions and I juries but have you had multiple important cogs out at a time.

The start of our decline can be linked to losing Draper and Ridley together as an example which threw everything out of whack structure wise.

No Lewis for 7 weeks was a big loss, we had Ferg Greene as our key forward for those weeks, as Kosi was in a bad form slump too. forward line was trash for most of the season as a result.

CJ never got going either.
Midfield stayed quite fit and Worpel and Nash excelled, which meant Stephens and Hustwaite didn’t get the opportunity we probably thought they would.

With a similar bill of health next year, we should win a couple more games at least, particularly if Lewis play the whole season.
I think a bit would have to go wrong for us to go backwards.

 

[SSSSSS]

If it helps, please allow to utilise my extensive academic and professional experience to draft up an expert graph in MS paint to illustrate what I was trying to convey:

View attachment 1783112

Revised for reality.

 

[TheFourPillars]

How have your injuries been this year?

I know players have missed time due to suspensions and I juries but have you had multiple important cogs out at a time.

The start of our decline can be linked to losing Draper and Ridley together as an example which threw everything out of whack structure wise.

Yes we have had a charmed run. Our first 7 games were impacted by not having Lewis in the side and then Day and Sicily being suspended. A couple of injuries and suspension to our Ruck Reeves. There is no doubt missing those players hurt us. We have had quite a few debutant and we were playing with 3 players under 10 games and under 5 earlier in the season in the backline. Hence the need for Frost and the fact Sicily going out really hurt us. CJ has missed most of the year him coming back next year will be scary given we are already the quickest team in the league depending on selection. Will be interesting to see how we go next year with more significant injuries. Our Attack is where we can least afford it

 

[Bugs1977]

How have your injuries been this year?

I know players have missed time due to suspensions and I juries but have you had multiple important cogs out at a time.

The start of our decline can be linked to losing Draper and Ridley together as an example which threw everything out of whack structure wise.

Mitch Lewis missed the first 6 games of the season and Sicily (5 games) and Will Day (2 games) both missed games with suspension. Those 3 guys outside of Newcombe are our 3 most influential so to have them miss games earlier in the season it really tied us to the bottom part of the ladder early on.

 

[Vindicater]

Tries hard and does lock down well, but the turnovers… ouch.

Hopefully you guys can secure McKay then.

Frost 2.0

 

[peetoo]

This is getting lots of responses because it’s amusing for how bad of a take it is.

Anyone who’s watched Hawthorn over the last month can see the growth in the side, which is exactly what the footy dept planned when they “gutted the list” and let the new mids build together.

I mean, it’s not just Hawks fans, Trealour and Dunkley both said on their podcast last week that they think we’ll play finals next year.

We’d have to have a bunch of things go wrong to go backwards with the amount of development left in the group.


View attachment 1783190

Hawks do finish the season well though

 

[SSSSSS]

Hopefully you guys can secure McKay then.

Frost 2.0

Imagine if we boot Frost and end up with the superstars that are McKay and Esava.

Rebuild complete.

 

[Philhawk]

If it helps, please allow to utilise my extensive academic and professional experience to draft up an expert graph in MS paint to illustrate what I was trying to convey:

View attachment 1783112

Sadly this is the fallacy that some North fans like yourself believe.

Hawks are on the up from here onwards. Youngest list in the comp and already some flag in the ground wins against top opposition to provide the shot in the arm for our young team in terms of rebuild.

West Coast will cut hard end of this year (like we did last year) - and if not for their tortured injury run, should rebound hard next year once they get some continuity into a young team.

The 'bottom out' fallacy that you seem to believe is flawed for one major, major eason - you never know where the bottom is. It's like trying to catch a falling knife.

 

[Hodgey 15]

Your playing list.

You're third last on the ladder in 2023 only above historically bad teams in WCE and North. Both WCE and North are ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild.

You've got a lot of best 22 players either over or approaching the age of 30, and you don't have a solid core of 20-25 year old's who will be coming on before those players are done.

All of James Sicily, Sam Forst, Luke Bruest, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon, and Chad Wingard were solidly best 22 for Hawthorn this year. All of them will be 29 years (or older) next season.

You have a couple of young players around that 22 year mark like Jai Newcombe and Will Day who are solid, but there's a huge gap on your list around that age 25~ sweet spot.

In short, you've got a lot of rebuilding to do because your upper age players like Sicily/Frost/etc aren't going to be on your list when you're next competing for a flag.

Maybe lay off the turps before posting.

 

[Chadwiko]

Sadly this is the fallacy that some North fans like yourself believe.

Care to make a friendly wager?

Which team out of Hawthorn and North wins a final first?

If North wins a final first, you agree to have Chief suspend/restrict your BF account for a period (two weeks? 1 month?)
If Hawks win a final first, I'll do the same in reverse.

 

[SSSSSS]

Players in the 25-27 bracket as of 2024.

Hardwick
Reeves
Nash
Scrimshaw
Lewis
Reeves
Worpel
Jiath
Moore

Ryan, Meek and Morrison on the outer.

Lets compare that to North in 2024 (assuming McKay is gawwwwn)

Tucker
Simpkin
Logue
Zuurhaar
Larkey
Sleevo
Bonar
Xerri
Young
LDU
CCJ

Gee that's pretty grim reading for North.

I'd have Reeves > Xerri, Hardwick > any North defender, Worpel > Simpkin, Jiath/Scrimshaw > any North halfback not named Sheezel, Moore > Zuurhaar/Sleevo.

Larkey and Lewis - toss a coin, depends what you want out of a forward. Both would be a complimentary duo. Lewis CHF Larkey FF. Easily best 22 for us.

LDU would be a walk up start to our best 22. Logue probably would be as well.

Outside of that I'm struggling to fill in our 22 with that cadre of North players who are supposedly the ones who have turned them around the corner.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hopefully you guys can secure McKay then.

Frost 2.0

 

[Philhawk]

Players in the 25-27 bracket as of 2024.

Hardwick
Reeves
Nash
Scrimshaw
Lewis
Reeves
Worpel
Jiath
Moore

Ryan, Meek and Morrison on the outer.

Lets compare that to North in 2024 (assuming McKay is gawwwwn)

Tucker
Simpkin
Logue
Zuurhaar
Larkey
Sleevo
Bonar
Xerri
Young
LDU
CCJ

Gee that's pretty grim reading for North.

I'd have Reeves > Xerri, Hardwick > any North defender, Worpel > Simpkin, Jiath/Scrimshaw > any North halfback not named Sheezel, Moore > Zuurhaar/Sleevo.

Larkey and Lewis - toss a coin, depends what you want out of a forward. Both would be a complimentary duo. Lewis CHF Larkey FF. Easily best 22 for us.

LDU would be a walk up start to our best 22. Logue probably would be as well.

Outside of that I'm struggling to fill in our 22 with that cadre of North players who are supposedly the ones who have turned them around the corner.

Please advise Chadwiko

Care to make a friendly wager?

Which team out of Hawthorn and North wins a final first?

If North wins a final first, you agree to have Chief suspend/restrict your BF account for a period (two weeks? 1 month?)
If Hawks win a final first, I'll do the same in reverse.

With pleasure. But please tag me next year when we win a final as I'll have firmly forgotten all about this bet while being focused on our next game.

 

[Chadwiko]

I’m not sure if


Please advise Chadwiko



With pleasure. But please tag me next year when we win a final as I'll have firmly forgotten all about this bet while being focused on our next game.

I'll tag you next year for sure when the Hawks are bottom 4 again just to remind you

 

[Hawker55]

Mitch Lewis missed the first 6 games of the season and Sicily (5 games) and Will Day (2 games) both missed games with suspension. Those 3 guys outside of Newcombe are our 3 most influential so to have them miss games earlier in the season it really tied us to the bottom part of the ladder early on.

I'd go further and say with Mitch Lewis we win those close games against GWS and the Crows early on. We probably give Melbourne a better shake last week too.

I think there's enough there to say we've improved over the year and ironed out some of the issues we had about stopping runs early on this season.

 

[Sizzlesilk]

Care to make a friendly wager?

Which team out of Hawthorn and North wins a final first?

If North wins a final first, you agree to have Chief suspend/restrict your BF account for a period (two weeks? 1 month?)
If Hawks win a final first, I'll do the same in reverse.

I’m in.

 

[matey]

I'll tag you next year for sure when the Hawks are bottom 4 again just to remind you

Totally understandable ……. 3 spoons in a row would make any kid lose their marbles!

 

[hawkman]

I'd go further and say with Mitch Lewis we win those close games against GWS and the Crows early on. We probably give Melbourne a better shake last week too.

I think there's enough there to say we've improved over the year and ironed out some of the issues we had about stopping runs early on this season.

6-7 over the last 13 weeks with a percentage close to 100. It is fringes of the top 8 form over a 3 month period. The next step will be to do it over a whole season

 

[peetoo]

Hawks seem to be beating top 4 and bottom 4 teams exclusively, even latter day Clarko years

Need to work out beating the annoying ones in ‘no man’s land’

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawks seem to be beating top 4 and bottom 4 teams exclusively, even latter day Clarko years

Need to work out beating the annoying ones in ‘no man’s land’

The comparison is odd and irrelevant.

We’re the youngest list in the comp, with the youngest midfield group.

We did exactly what the footy dept said we would, which was to have lots of learning to do early in the year and then put it together later in the year and take some sides by surprise.

 

[TheFourPillars]

The comparison is odd and irrelevant.

We’re the youngest list in the comp, with the youngest midfield group.

We did exactly what the footy dept said we would, which was to have lots of learning to do early in the year and then put it together later in the year and take some sides by surprise.

Yep even without the win this week I think the footy dept would have met its KPIs for the year. In saying that they are desperate to win this last game.

 

[Bugs1977]

The comparison is odd and irrelevant.

We’re the youngest list in the comp, with the youngest midfield group.

We did exactly what the footy dept said we would, which was to have lots of learning to do early in the year and then put it together later in the year and take some sides by surprise.

Outside of seeing the young midfield gel I think what I'm most impressed with is the development in the ability to stem the flow when other teams get on a huge run. They went from giving up 10-12 goal runs to limiting it to 4-5 goals and then hitting back with 2-3 of our own. There far from a complete product but there's certainly green shoots everywhere.

 

[Taper]

Sadly this is the fallacy that some North fans like yourself believe.

Hawks are on the up from here onwards. Youngest list in the comp and already some flag in the ground wins against top opposition to provide the shot in the arm for our young team in terms of rebuild.

West Coast will cut hard end of this year (like we did last year) - and if not for their tortured injury run, should rebound hard next year once they get some continuity into a young team.

The 'bottom out' fallacy that you seem to believe is flawed for one major, major eason - you never know where the bottom is. It's like trying to catch a falling knife.

Crows are ahead of both Hawks and North in their rebuild and I'd back them to contend for a flag soonest.

 

[Roby]

Crows are ahead of both Hawks and North in their rebuild and I'd back them to contend for a flag soonest.

You're so salty from the Geelong thread/s, after you've been told Geelong will be bottom 4. Geelong is LAST in their rebuild, even North is ahead. Goodbye Geelong.

 

[HeHateMe]

Let's re-assess this time next year.

Yep