Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[theiaofseed]

I look forward to Lewis winning the next 2 Coleman medals …

So if not Lewis … then who would yield quality draft picks via trade?

Why do we NEED to trade for draft picks?

 

[Red Bull]

Why do we NEED to trade for draft picks?

I never said you did.
I was responding to a hawks supporter who suggested it …

 

[Bradkli]

Curnow was 25 and hadn't kicked 40 goals in a year and couldn't stay on the park.

Charlie Curnow played 20 games in his second season and 21 in his third.

As a 25 year old, he played 22 games and kicked 64 goals.

As a 26 year old, he played 26 games and kicked 81 goals.

Mitch Lewis will need a miracle to get 50 goals in a season by the time he retires due to his injury history. It’s now at the stage where it’s not just “bad luck”

Curnow has been the best forward in the AFL the last two season’s and will be up there again this season.

He’s also a completely different player to Mitch Lewis. He’s an impact player that’s always in the game. Mitch Lewis consistently has games where he has zero impact and you forget he’s playing. Also doesn’t help that we have the worst midfield in the AFL. By the time our midfield is hopefully competing with the best, Lewis will be approaching 30.

 

[Mr Meow]

Makes sense. I thought we won the clearance battle pretty easily today both in the centre and stoppage.

Game was won and lost between the arcs. Too much quality up forward and too organised down back.

We thrashed you on scores from centre bounces, not sure about other stoppages.

Quantity doesn't tell all. The clearances Hawthorn did leak were some pretty effective ones.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I did get a laugh out of Chief Dunstall today having a little whinge about Ginni not getting high free kicks. It was him and Dermott who have led a strident campaign against Joel Selwood because of his consistent ducking. Now it has taken just 3 weeks in the Hawks jumper to start whingeing about consistent Ducking Ginni not getting freekicks.

The Hawks now have 3 out of the 4 top Duckers in the league in the one forward line in Ginni, Moore and Wizard.

Chief and Dermott are gonna twist themselves in knots trying to barrack, as against maintaining their consistent hatred of ducking players.

Huge difference here.

They brought in a 'Selwood rule' but still persisted in paying Joel free kicks for high tackles as if it was never introduced.

Suddenly the next king of the high free milk is being ignored even when there are blatantly high tackles performed on him. Ginni was crucified today, and even neutral supporters could see it.

The irony of Selwood being in the commentary box but not being asked ONCE for his opinion on the matter wasn't lost on us.

 

[sr36]

Want just fans. Media pundits like King said our backline would be the best in the league.

Yeah it's an industry wide thing. Youth hyping and the expectation of exponential development.

 

[sr36]

Huge difference here.

They brought in a 'Selwood rule' but still persisted in paying Joel free kicks for high tackles as if it was never introduced.

Suddenly the next king of the high free milk is being ignored even when there are blatantly high tackles performed on him. Ginni was crucified today, and even neutral supporters could see it.

The irony of Selwood being in the commentary box but not being asked ONCE for his opinion on the matter wasn't lost on us.

It's pretty funny to read another club complaining about this. Were you concerned during the last 18 months.

The reality is Ginni is really good at pushing the tackle high, which makes him really hard to umpire. He needs to watch some footage of Selwood and notice that he's continuing to try to drive through the contest. So he's still a chance of dishing off if the free doesn't come - rather than having just flopped to further accentuate the free, which also means the free is less likely to come, because it also exaggerates that he's playing for the free. Jack's technique pushes more tackles high and makes the higher contact clearer and easier to see than Selwoods did, but it also means he's less likely to get the free as it's so much more obvious that he's playing for it. And it also means he's given up and opportunity to continue playing if the free doesn't come.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Curnow was 25 and hadn't kicked 40 goals in a year and couldn't stay on the park.

Charlie had already won a Coleman at the same age. Lewis is only a year younger than him. It’s time to put it all together.

He reminds me a bit of Charlie Dixon. Obviously very talented. Goes through an injury set back most years so you cut him some slack. Next year is the big year for Charlie. Before you know it he is 33 years old and hasn’t done a great deal throughout his career, but once every 6 weeks he’ll have that massive game that reminds you just how talented he is.

Will Mitch ever win an AA like Charlie did?

 

[sr36]

We thrashed you on scores from centre bounces, not sure about other stoppages.

Quantity doesn't tell all. The clearances Hawthorn did leak were some pretty effective ones.

That's partially where the teams are at. You guys are so much better than them between the arcs that you can set up in the centre square to be more damaging from less wins - they have to try to win them all.

 

[peetoo]

If you wanted to go full nutjob on a rebuild through the draft, it'd be Sicily and Lewis, but it'd be moronic.

I thought the Hawks were alright today. Mids were good like the end of last year, but their defence is a real worry and Cats conversion was off thr charts.

We did trade Nathan Thompson, a very late draft pick himself for pick 10 and upgraded that to seven for Jordan lewis

Could happily do that. Provided we think we also get a top kpf (dear)

 

[sr36]

We did trade Nathan Thompson, a very late draft pick himself for pick 10 and upgraded that to seven for Jordan lewis

Could happily do that. Provided we think we also get a top kpf (dear)

That was a case of buyer beware. You dumped Thompson because he had depression. Same with Hay.

 

[peetoo]

That was a case of buyer beware. You dumped Thompson because he had depression. Same with Hay.

Yep don’t think anyone would do that trade now, but Thommo issues were known and it’s not as if he wasn’t pretty good for them

 

[sr36]

Yep don’t think anyone would do that trade now, but Thommo issues were known and it’s not as if he wasn’t pretty good for them

Hawks trading in that era was interesting. Hodge was a masterstroke, but not necessarily masterful in the reasoning. They had talls coming out of their ears at the time, and needed mids, so a couple of talented talls out to get Hodge. But by the time Hodge was ready to deliver, all those talls were gone, but they got lucky and replaced them with a couple that came on really quickly and were simply outstanding.

 

[peetoo]

Hawks trading in that era was interesting. Hodge was a masterstroke, but not necessarily masterful in the reasoning. They had talls coming out of their ears at the time, and needed mids, so a couple of talented talls out to get Hodge. But by the time Hodge was ready to deliver, all those talls were gone, but they got lucky and replaced them with a couple that came on really quickly and were simply outstanding.

Arguably got more from 2004 draft than all other clubs combined, riches very rare.

Fluffed 2005 and 2006 drafts so it evens out

 

[SSSSSS]

We thrashed you on scores from centre bounces, not sure about other stoppages.

Quantity doesn't tell all. The clearances Hawthorn did leak were some pretty effective ones.

It's become a common pattern.

We tend to position ourselves aggressively at centre bounces - coaching to win I guess?

Problem is we rarely have enough players defensive side of the stoppage and one good tap by the oppo ruck or an errant fumble and we're cooked.

 

[Mr Meow]

Huge difference here.

They brought in a 'Selwood rule' but still persisted in paying Joel free kicks for high tackles as if it was never introduced.

Suddenly the next king of the high free milk is being ignored even when there are blatantly high tackles performed on him. Ginni was crucified today, and even neutral supporters could see it.

The irony of Selwood being in the commentary box but not being asked ONCE for his opinion on the matter wasn't lost on us.

I wonder if Selwood wasn't rewarded 20 times in a row whether he'd start to adapt though? Probably not as it was genuinely how he shrugged tackles and evaded opposition at stoppage anyway.

I wonder how long Ginnivan will persist with a pure free kick milking tactic, that if it doesn't work gives him zero chance of making a positive contribution?

Depends how smart he is, really. The good players adapt pretty quickly.

 

[sr36]

It's become a common pattern.

We tend to position ourselves aggressively at centre bounces - coaching to win I guess?

Problem is we rarely have enough players defensive side of the stoppage and one good tap by the oppo ruck or an errant fumble and we're cooked.

The tigers changed the thinking on that. For a while now the good teams have set up to win scores from stoppage rather than to win the stoppage stat - so they play a defensively minded mid to cover off blokes shooting out the front of stoppage and who can distribute. That bloke doesn't crash in to win the clearance. So the other team often wins the clearance stats, because they've got 3 rather than 2 hunting the footy at centre bounces, but their clearances aren't usually as effective.

Hawks are still in development mode, so they're all still hunting the footy around stoppage. Plus they're not as strong defensively so they have to be all in to win stoppage as they can't trust their defence to hold up to multiple sloppy entries.

 

[peetoo]

It's pretty funny to read another club complaining about this. Were you concerned during the last 18 months.

The reality is Ginni is really good at pushing the tackle high, which makes him really hard to umpire. He needs to watch some footage of Selwood and notice that he's continuing to try to drive through the contest. So he's still a chance of dishing off if the free doesn't come - rather than having just flopped to further accentuate the free, which also means the free is less likely to come, because it also exaggerates that he's playing for the free.

You just described one of ginni non free kicks yesterday. It was an old fashioned coat hanger action

Pay them when they are there

 

[sr36]

You just described one of ginni non free kicks yesterday. It was an old fashioned coat hanger action

Pay them when they are there

I've seen it for 18 months and understand the frustration, but the thing is that it's just so hard to umpire. Jack's action is the same whether the tackle started high or not. Arm raise, flop at the knees on contact and throw the head back.

Pies have a couple of players who do it - Noble, Nick and Pendles - but the difference is that it's a last resort when they can't avoid the tackle - they don't make a bee-line for the tackler or do it every time which just takes away the benefit of the doubt. Yesterday was a regression for Jack, which I felt Mitchell's comments pointed out, as second half of last year, he was trying to stand up in tackles a whole lot more - that was 2022 Jack. He was beginning to get some handballs off in the tackle last year.

 

[peetoo]

I've seen it for 18 months and understand the frustration, but the thing is that it's just so hard to umpire. Jack's action is the same whether the tackle started high or not. Arm raise, flop at the knees on contact and throw the head back.

Pies have a couple of players who do it - Noble, Nick and Pendles - but the difference is that it's a last resort when they can't avoid the tackle - they don't make a bee-line for the tackler or do it every time which just takes away the benefit of the doubt. Yesterday was a regression for Jack, which I felt Mitchell's comments pointed out, as second half of last year, he was trying to stand up in tackles a whole lot more - that was 2022 Jack.

That is clearly not what was happening in the coat hanger tackle. There’s footage there, quick hand pass to Bruest or moor in that footage and an almost certain goal.

Professional foul by the Geelong 9


Also is/was which do you mean. I’ve seen very little of Jack ‘running at the man’ this season

 

[Sttew]

You just described one of ginni non free kicks yesterday. It was an old fashioned coat hanger action

Pay them when they are there

How can you pay ‘legitimate’ frees to Jack when moments before he fakes a free by flinging his head back when the opposition player merely taps him on the shoulder, and then moments after the missed free he does the exact same again. His staging for frees is rampant, and unless he changes his ways he will get zero sympathy from umpires.

 

[HairyO]

Watson - Why?

Small forward is the hardest position in a terrible team. In his first 3 games he has had 11 kicks for goal. While most have missed, if he works on his rushing and steadies he will be kicking far more goals very quickly.

 

[sr36]

That is clearly not what was happening in the coat hanger tackle. There’s footage there, quick hand pass to Bruest or moor in that footage and an almost certain goal.

Professional foul by the Geelong 9


Also is/was which do you mean. I’ve seen very little of Jack ‘running at the man’ this season

I think the one at the top of the square was a clear umpire error.

His other ones however make that error more likely as the umpires don't give him the benefit of the doubt.

A bee-line for the tackler was an exaggeration. Jack in the mode he was in yesterday plays it differently. They weren't situations where him getting locked up was inevitable. They were situations where other players would have been trying to break the tackle and keep their arms free for a handball if they couldn't. The frustrating thing is that when he's too far out to score, it wouldn't even be good play if the umpires did pay them - it'd be better for the team if he tried to keep the ball alive for a quick entry rather than putting all the eggs in the basket of a free kick, which will just be a slow entry to a set defence. It also means he's less likely to get the ones when he's within range.

Every Pies fan has gone through the feeling of poor Jack, he's being ripped off and umpired differently. Some never let those feelings drop - others eventually realised that it's simply a product of the way he chooses to play. I liked Mitchell's comments on it. Made it clear that the focus will be more on adjusting the way Jack plays than on whinging about the umpiring of Jack

 

[HairyO]

How can you pay ‘legitimate’ frees to Jack when moments before he fakes a free by flinging his head back when the opposition player merely taps him on the shoulder, and then moments after the missed free he does the exact same again. His staging for frees is rampant, and unless he changes his ways he will get zero sympathy from umpires.

Ignoring high frees, twice he had Geelong players in his back and driving him into the ground, plus being hit high in a marking contest.

He could easily have got Selwood level free kicks without any of the raising arm.

 

[Sttew]

Ignoring high frees, twice he had Geelong players in his back and driving him into the ground, plus being hit high in a marking contest.

He could easily have got Selwood level free kicks without any of the raising arm.

My point in case it escaped you is that the umpires can be forgiven for ignoring legitimate Ginnivan frees because he fakes so many