Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[sr36]

And he probably now gets a good run against Collingwood this week for the enjoyment of everyone

It's going to be entertaining. He'll take serial post to next level knowing just who and how to irritate. I've just got my fingers crossed for no suspensions.

 

[peetoo]

Is the game being talked up for tv numbers? Cos as a sell out they won’t sell more tickets

 

[HairyO]

Yes, it's almost a given unfortunately. They need to find the happy median.

It should be as simple as always pay the ones which are there and dont guess and dont play favourites.

But that doesnt seem as simple as youd hope.

 

[sr36]

It should be as simple as always pay the ones which are there and dont guess and dont play favourites.

But that doesnt seem as simple as youd hope.

It's not simple. His timing is so good that he's impossible to umpire. Even in slow mo it's often just really hard to tell whether the tackle was high or whether he forced it high by raising the arm and dropping at the knees. They're no cahnce of doing it accurately live.

They've either got to guess, pay them all whenever there is high contact (and the football world made it crystal clear 18 months ago that they didn't want that.) or don't pay any when they see a bit of an arm raise (which is what they've been doing)

They definitely missed that one at the top of the square - that was pure reputation umpiring.

 

[The 747]

Leaving the minivan situation aside, what would concern me a bit as a Hawks fan is the inconsistency.

CJ looked like an elite player, now can't get on the park.
Newcombe was good, now Newcombe is meh, Worpel was meh, now Worpel is OK.
Discards from other clubs look like class (Minivan, Chol)
Midfield was weak, then strong, now trending weak again.
Etc

It's hard to build on shaky foundations. And saying this without any anti-Hawk filter.

 

[My Tilly]

It's really quite remarkable when you look back to when Hawthorn and Geelong were two stand out teams of the competition for many years. One team decided to do a heavy rebuild while the other opted a transitional change over a longer period. It's now 5 years ago when both teams lined up against one another.

Geelong ins: Bowes, Bruhn, Cameron, Clark, Close, De Koning, Dempsey, Z.Guthrie, Henry, Holmes, Stengle, Mullin, Conway.
Hawthorn ins: Amon, Chol, D'Ambrosio, Frost, Ginnivan, Hustwaite, Macdonald, Mackenzie, Meek, Moore, Newcombe, Ward, Watson, Weddle.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

It's really quite remarkable when you look back to when Hawthorn and Geelong were two stand out teams of the competition for many years. One team decided to do a heavy rebuild while the other opted a transitional change over a longer period. It's now over 5 years ago when both teams lined up against one another.

Geelong ins: Bowes, Bruhn, Cameron, Clark, Close, De Koning, Dempsey, Z.Guthrie, Henry, Holmes, Stengle, Mullin, Conway.
Hawthorn ins: Amon, Chol, D'Ambrosio, Frost, Ginnivan, Hustwaite, Macdonald, Mackenzie, Meek, Moore, Newcombe, Ward, Watson, Weddle.

Very remarkable.

Only part I will disagree on is Hawthorn never chose to do a heavy rebuild. They fell into it through arrogance.

 

[peetoo]

Very remarkable.

Only part I will disagree on is Hawthorn never chose to do a heavy rebuild. They fell into it through arrogance.

Or you could say choosing heavy rebuild is disrespecting their fans. Choosing to do it is no guarantee either. We hot McEvoy and lake from other clubs choosing that, so not complaining too much

It wasn’t always accepted wisdom either. And eagles got Harley, but their second pick as the bottom team was pick 30!

 

[Blue1980]

Or you could say choosing heavy rebuild is disrespecting their fans. Choosing to do it is no guarantee either. We hot McEvoy and lake from other clubs choosing that, so not complaining too much

It wasn’t always accepted wisdom either. And eagles got Harley, but their second pick as the bottom team was pick 30!

Well I think there was a middle ground to take after 2016/17 or so. It is all those top up players that were taken in that era that made a full on rebuild necessary now (read later Clarko era).

McEvoy was selected when you were still in contending phase, the issue is more what happened from 2016-19 period re trading/recruiting.

 

[peetoo]

Well I think there was a middle ground to take after 2016/17 or so. It is all those top up players that were taken in that era that made a full on rebuild necessary now (read later Clarko era).

McEvoy was selected when you were still in contending phase, the issue is more what happened from 2016-19 period re trading/recruiting.

I’d like to understand but this makes no sense to me. Should have been operating with the benefit of hindsight. Surely you can see from carlton over the same period that second guessing, chopping and changing is poison.

But you describe the other path as ‘arrogance’?

 

[TheFourPillars]

Who was to know Rough would get Cancer and Rioli would retire early. It wasn't arrogance.

 

[sr36]

Who was to know Rough would get Cancer and Rioli would retire early. It wasn't arrogance.

Yep. Absolutely. Still had some great pieces at both ends but the midfield was too old. Had a crack at replacing the midfield that had and also added a few who they backed in to overcome injuries. They cop a lot of flack for it because it didn't work - but it was the right thing to try.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

Leaving the minivan situation aside, what would concern me a bit as a Hawks fan is the inconsistency.

CJ looked like an elite player, now can't get on the park.
Newcombe was good, now Newcombe is meh, Worpel was meh, now Worpel is OK.
Discards from other clubs look like class (Minivan, Chol)
Midfield was weak, then strong, now trending weak again.
Etc

It's hard to build on shaky foundations. And saying this without any anti-Hawk filter.

Fair enough call. I think it's pretty clear that Will Day is the key to our midfield. Won the B&F last year and it's been clear as day (pun intended) how important he is - I think Newcombe probably plays better with Day next to him. CJ is all about injuries - can only hope that this it but obviously the big worry is his ability to get on the ground. People will laugh but we played much better with Chad Wingard in the team - he brings a point of difference with his creative play. We look very one paced this year and probably playing too many of the same type of player. At one point on Monday our half forward line was Breust, Moore and Watson. I can't see many contested marks coming out of that lot.

As you note though we've traded up pretty well - Chol is a big improvement on Kosi, Ginnivan a big improvement on Brockman, D'Ambrosio about evens with Bramble so no issue there. Box Hill have also started with a flyer so at least the next level of players are making a case for inclusion in the ones. Very early days but Calsher Dear looks like a pretty competent forward.

The other issue for us is the form of our veterans. Breust was terrible against Melbourne but took it to a new level on Monday. It hurts to say but it looks as though the game might have passed him. Ditto Gunstan who really didn't do much at Box Hill.

 

[sr36]

Fair enough call. I think it's pretty clear that Will Day is the key to our midfield. Won the B&F last year and it's been clear as day (pun intended) how important he is - I think Newcombe probably plays better with Day next to him. CJ is all about injuries - can only hope that this it but obviously the big worry is his ability to get on the ground. People will laugh but we played much better with Chad Wingard in the team - he brings a point of difference with his creative play. We look very one paced this year and probably playing too many of the same type of player. At one point on Monday our half forward line was Breust, Moore and Watson. I can't see many contested marks coming out of that lot.

I think Newcombe is probably just going through what most good players do. Success results in extra defensive focus which results in a bit of an output dip which takes a while to overcome. He's a good un, who isn't going to be reliant on the teammate beside him.

 

[tonygeeks]

Lol would be interesting to look back at some Hawk posters attitudes to Ginnivans antics BEFORE he was traded


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[Strapping Young Lad]

Leaving the minivan situation aside, what would concern me a bit as a Hawks fan is the inconsistency.

CJ looked like an elite player, now can't get on the park.
Newcombe was good, now Newcombe is meh, Worpel was meh, now Worpel is OK.
Discards from other clubs look like class (Minivan, Chol)
Midfield was weak, then strong, now trending weak again.
Etc

It's hard to build on shaky foundations. And saying this without any anti-Hawk filter.

There’s definitely been some flip flopping with our strengths/weaknesses.

In 2023 we couldn’t win a stoppage clearance(17th in the comp), but we were very good at centre bounces(3rd).

Now we’re 9th for stoppages, but 18th for Centre clearances.
Loss of Day has impacted Newk and Nash, and the ruck rule change has negated Reeves who had as us the 2nd in the comp for hitout win % in 2023.
This has seen the drop in centre clearances.

We’re improved across the ground in other metrics. 9th for inside 50’s, 14th in 2023.
6th for Marks inside 50, 15th last year.

Midfield has been the biggest issue though.

 

[peetoo]

Lol would be interesting to look back at some Hawk posters attitudes to Ginnivans antics BEFORE he was traded


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Well we didn’t release a pig on the ground with plugger painted on, but much the same.

Interesting Essendon and Geelong fans bood him on arrival

 

[boncer34]

Well we didn’t release a pig on the ground with plugger painted on, but much the same.

Interesting Essendon and Geelong fans bood him on arrival

Essendon fans have booed him far longer than just round 1 this season.

 

[hawkman]

Essendon fans have booed him far longer than just round 1 this season.

I was well aware of his Essendon history so expected it, had no idea about any history with Geelong though

 

[H00t]

Who was to know Rough would get Cancer and Rioli would retire early. It wasn't arrogance.

We had no idea about Cyril but we knew about Rough’s cancer diagnosis.

 

[Daka]

I thought the Hawks had a better midfield than they did. I probably overestimated them at the start of this season because of a couple of wins they had last year even with Will Day out.

I think they obviously need another key forward & key defender. but Midfield could also be improved. their rebuild is not done or on the way up. yet they might need a couple years down the bottom again & use their picks wisely on key posts or recruit some superstar from another club which isn't easy to convince to come when there is competition for signings.

 

[Sttew]

I was well aware of his Essendon history so expected it, had no idea about any history with Geelong though

I am a Geelong supporter and I was at the game. I didn't hear any booing of Jack. I did hear the umpires being booed when the obvious frees were overlooked.

 

[HairyO]

Leaving the minivan situation aside, what would concern me a bit as a Hawks fan is the inconsistency.

CJ looked like an elite player, now can't get on the park.
Newcombe was good, now Newcombe is meh, Worpel was meh, now Worpel is OK.
Discards from other clubs look like class (Minivan, Chol)
Midfield was weak, then strong, now trending weak again.
Etc

It's hard to build on shaky foundations. And saying this without any anti-Hawk filter.

We have a bunch of talented but easily injured players.
CJ
Day
Lewis
McCabe isnt off to a good start either, with a stress fracture from training.

 

[HairyO]

I am a Geelong supporter and I was at the game. I didn't hear any booing of Jack. I did hear the umpires being booed when the obvious frees were overlooked.

The Essendon game had a LOT of booing which was a little strange. But then again they are a strange lot.

 

[TheFourPillars]

We had no idea about Cyril but we knew about Rough’s cancer diagnosis.

Just put things in perspective here. Teams and list managers don't plan for a things a year out. Its usually several years. Players they want to draft, trade in and out and free agents. Even with that Roughs cancer came back which ruined him as a footballer. He could have played on for quite a few years like Hawkins.