Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Wahooti Fandango]

I hope Hawthorn aren't cowards and sack Mitchell. He deserves a long run at it to build the list. It would be weak to sack him if results don't turn around.

This is what a scorched earth rebuild looks like Hawks fans. It isn't just for clubs like LOL CARLTON. No teams bounce back after havking through their list to rebuild. 4 - 5 years to go with no guarantees it's going to work.

Why not, Mitchell is a smug knob.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Hawthorn have had some of the biggest performance drop offs this year you will ever likely see

Newcombe has been absolute ass. Conor Nash

11

Conor Nash

Age

26

Ht

198cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.1

5star

CL

0.3

2star

No current season stats available

D

8.4

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.2

2star

joins him, Ward joins him. Sicilys form has dropped as has Worpels. Not as severe as the rest but noticable. I dont think i can remember 2 players form drop off who werent in that ancient part of their careers as much as Newcombe and Nash

I think anyone else looking for another reason for the fall is clutching at straws. You cant compete when your prime ball movers get 14,10 and 10 disposals in a game.

Hawks were cruelled this year by being handed pick 4 also. Watson is fine but 100% against what they needed which was a Duursma. That will hurt them structurally for a while

All in all Hawks just need to get players back in form, more then they need to find new ones.

 

[Gavin Excell]

A loss to North next week may raise some alarm bells

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

A loss to North next week may raise some alarm bells

Will see how North go today but id suggest North should be favorites in this game. Hawks dont have the tall forwards to punish Norths enormous achilles heel. North also have the engine room to starve Hawks of the ball too

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I hope Hawthorn aren't cowards and sack Mitchell. He deserves a long run at it to build the list. It would be weak to sack him if results don't turn around.

This is what a scorched earth rebuild looks like Hawks fans. It isn't just for clubs like LOL CARLTON. No teams bounce back after havking through their list to rebuild. 4 - 5 years to go with no guarantees it's going to work.

Almost zero chance Mitchell gets sacked when he’s coaching the second youngest list in the comp and it’s doing exactly what the second youngest lists generally do when a few of its first string players are injured.

We were lauded for taking it up to the Pies last week, could have even won it, while they’d delivered their highest pressure rating of all time, and this week we get rolled and bullied by the Suns, which is pretty commonplace up there for the last few years.

I doubt you’d find many Hawthorn supporters that expected us to do much last night.

 

[TheKanga]

Will see how North go today but id suggest North should be favorites in this game. Hawks dont have the tall forwards to punish Norths enormous achilles heel. North also have the engine room to starve Hawks of the ball too

North = "Hold my beer"

We completely spudded it up against them last season.
Cellar dwellers grand final?

 

[boncer34]

And they got a few before the eagles got their second round pick at #30. Not a case of not needing them, just being realistic in knowing the ledger is stacked.

Ah now the ledger is stacked because Hawthorn haven't had the same access to top picks as another side.

But when Hawthorn were winning their premierships stacked with first round talent whilst other clubs had to rebuild without the top picks due to GC and GWS drafts the ledger was perfectly square right?

 

[boncer34]

Rebuild LOL what's a rebuild? Clarko is king. Cos Hawthorn. Only loser clubs rebuild. Grand final every 4 years. Blah blah blah

Are you sure you're not a Hawthorn fan?

 

[VinnieB]

Almost zero chance Mitchell gets sacked when he’s coaching the second youngest list in the comp and it’s doing exactly what the second youngest lists generally do when a few of its first string players are injured.

We were lauded for taking it up to the Pies last week, could have even won it, while they’d delivered their highest pressure rating of all time, and this week we get rolled and bullied by the Suns, which is pretty commonplace up there for the last few years.

I doubt you’d find many Hawthorn supporters that expected us to do much last night.

For 1 quarter?
It’s no secret the Pies have been really poor this year.

You have a terrible record against GC but that’s no excuse for what was probably the poorest midfield showing many could think of.

That midfield isn’t that young.
Nash will be 26 in a few months.
Worpel is 25.
Newcombe into his 4th season.
Ward and McKenzie were top 7 picks and while they are going into their 3rd and 2nd seasons, I’m sure the expectations would have been that they would be showing far more than they have and still probably haven’t secured their positions in ordinary list.

Bruest and Gunston are cooked. Wingard not far behind.
Lewis looks like he is battling and questionable whether he is anything special given he has only played a handful of good games in his career.
DGB couldn’t get a regular game (another high draft pick burned).
Jiath is overrated and has been ordinary since 2022 when he did play.

Only good player is Day. Only midfielder you have who is highly skilled while the rest are just workhorses with poor skills and a lack of accountability.

 

[kriles76]

A loss to North next week may raise some alarm bells

Or ring some eyebrows.

 

[The 747]

Maybe from the media but internally the board would know that Mitchell had been handed an absolute disaster and has steered the ship pretty remarkably given the circumstances.

A serious question what is remarkable about it? And being a good media performer doesn't count.

 

[sr36]

I hope Hawthorn aren't cowards and sack Mitchell. He deserves a long run at it to build the list. It would be weak to sack him if results don't turn around.

This is what a scorched earth rebuild looks like Hawks fans. It isn't just for clubs like LOL CARLTON. No teams bounce back after havking through their list to rebuild. 4 - 5 years to go with no guarantees it's going to work.

1 first rounder a year isn't enough if you bottom right out and are building from nothing. If you do go the scorched earth re-build, you've got to be really bloody lucky with your picks or be shit enough for long enough to get concession picks.

 

[SSSSSS]

A serious question what is remarkable about it? And being a good media performer doesn't count.

I'm surprised we haven't won multiple spoons with the list he inherited.

Made the brave call to cut Mitchell and JOM out of the midfield and start from ground zero.

We could have crash landed nose first. At the moment we're gliding on one engine. Still might crash but there is the possibility we can land.

I didn't see that possibility before.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Will be hard to top Hawthorns worst ever season. 0 wins and 49.8% in 1950.

But hard to see them finding a win this season

 

[The 747]

I'm surprised we haven't won multiple spoons with the list he inherited.

Made the brave call to cut Mitchell and JOM out of the midfield and start from ground zero.

We could have crash landed nose first. At the moment we're gliding on one engine. Still might crash but there is the possibility we can land.

I didn't see that possibility before.

Fair enough, I think Hawks fans give Mitchell a huge amount of rope. He's heading into McKenna, McCartney. Dew, Bolton WL territory and it seems there might be some more pain to come*

*Noting that the Hawks have tended to start seasons slowly of late

 

[SSSSSS]

Will be hard to top Hawthorns worst ever season. 0 wins and 49.8% in 1950.

But hard to see them finding a win this season

We will win anywhere from 4-8 IMO. Probably somewhere in between.

Our best can match any team. Our worst is terrible.

If we catch a few teams sleeping we can beat them as we've seen throughout every season.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I guess a worrying thing from Hawks fans also is we are discussing poor form of players who were already around pre rebuild. It feels like the guys they already had are vital to them so whats it say about the last 3 drafts before this year. I went and took a look and it looks ugly

2020

Denver Granger-Barass (struggling with injuries and form, not good for a top 10 pick)
Seamus Mitchell (on rookie list and just plodding along)
Connor Downie (delisted already)
Tyler Brockman (At Eagles now)

Did well in mid season draft to get Newcombe who covers the DGB miss a bit

2021 -
Josh Ward (horribly out of form, not showing enough for a pick 7)
Sam Butler (not showing much)
Connor Macdonald (dont know?)
Jai Serong (stuck in VFL not doing much)

Then rookie picks in Long whose gone and Ramsden, Blanck who have shown a bit\

2022

Cam McKenzie (shown bits and parts but out of form)
Josh Weddle (very good pickup, will be a gun)
Henry Hustwaite (needs a chance still)
Jack O'Sullivan (dont know?)
Bailey Macdonald (dont know?)

Its a lean 3 years and big issues of having missed out on 2 of the top 10 picks they had badly with McKenzie maybe not living up to expectations either

Its one thing to tank for picks, but you gotta hit them. At present if you go through the clubs top 10 players, they aint hitting them

 

[SSSSSS]

Fair enough, I think Hawks fans give Mitchell a huge amount of rope. He's heading into McKenna, McCartney. Dew, Bolton WL territory and it seems there might be some more pain to come*

*Noting that the Hawks have tended to start seasons slowly of late

Clarkson and Dimma had the same questions raised and a similar WL early days. They had a whole lot more first round talent on their list too.

Both coaches kicked on in the 3rd/4th season. I'm happy to give Mitchell some time. The first season he had was just clearing the deadwood. Last season IMO is the first year he had a side he could call his own.

 

[boncer34]

Clarkson and Dimma had the same questions raised and a similar WL early days. They had a whole lot more first round talent on their list too.

Both coaches kicked on in the 3rd/4th season. I'm happy to give Mitchell some time. The first season he had was just clearing the deadwood. Last season IMO is the first year he had a side he could call his own.

Clarkson and Dimma also improved w/l% year on year the first 3 years.

Mitchell's gone backwards.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Ah now the ledger is stacked because Hawthorn haven't had the same access to top picks as another side.

But when Hawthorn were winning their premierships stacked with first round talent whilst other clubs had to rebuild without the top picks due to GC and GWS drafts the ledger was perfectly square right?

may need to be clear of definition of first round talent - in that when GWC/ GC taking their extra picks, the first round went out to i think it was pick 26? Do you mean high first round (eg pick 5 or higher)

 

[SSSSSS]

I guess a worrying thing from Hawks fans also is we are discussing poor form of players who were already around pre rebuild. It feels like the guys they already had are vital to them so whats it say about the last 3 drafts. I went and took a look and it looks ugly

2020

Denver Granger-Barass (struggling with injuries and form, not good for a top 10 pick)
Seamus Mitchell (on rookie list and just plodding along)
Connor Downie (delisted already)
Tyler Brockman (At Eagles now)

Did well in mid season draft to get Newcombe who covers the DGB miss a bit

2021 -
Josh Ward (horribly out of form, not showing enough for a pick 7)
Sam Butler (not showing much)
Connor Macdonald (dont know?)
Jai Serong (stuck in VFL not doing much)

Then rookie picks in Long whose gone and Ramsden, Blanck who have shown a bit

Cam McKenzie (shown bits and parts but out of form)
Josh Weddle (very good pickup, will be a gun)
Henry Hustwaite (needs a chance still)
Jack O'Sullivan (dont know?)
Bailey Macdonald (dont know?)

Its a lean 3 years and big issues of having missed out on 2 of the top 10 picks they had badly with McKenzie maybe not living up to expectations either

Its one thing to tank for picks, but you gotta hit them. At present if you go through the clubs top 10 players, they aint hitting them

Seamus Mitchell has been good. It's hard to look good as a back pocket in a defence that's usually under siege but I think he's going to be a player if he stays fit.

Ward is still very inconsistent but he's playing out wide as a natural inside mid. Games like yesterday when our midfield gets smashed is not a fun time to be a wing holding space on the fat side of the ground. Can't get the ball if there is no one who can give it to you.

CMacdonald I thought he would take the next step this season after a good 2023 and a smashing preseason but has been woefully out of form.

Butler looks lost at AFL level. Good at BHH but plays a midfield/HFF role in the 2s. Gets stuck as a forward pocket at AFL level in a side that can't generate many opportunities.

Serong has been good at VFL level this year. Needs a chance. I really hope we pick him next week to free up Sicily.

Mackenzie has had good games and bad games but still very young. Still very light bodied and gets pushed off the ball too easily but when he has time has been the class and polish we need.

My biggest concern this year isn't the younger players but the senior players. Too much is being left to the young kids to do and they aren't coping.

Sicily isn't at his AA level form. Nash is playing poorly. Newcombe while young is what I'd consider to be a senior player in importance and has been very poor. Lewis injured/poor. Moore recovering from glandular so I'll give him some leeway but hasn't been the same level of player.

The only senior players who have stepped up this year are Worpel, Frost, Amon and Scrimshaw.

 

[SSSSSS]

Clarkson and Dimma also improved w/l% year on year the first 3 years.

Mitchell's gone backwards.

Development isn't always linear.

 

[Hamingja]

I guess a worrying thing from Hawks fans also is we are discussing poor form of players who were already around pre rebuild. It feels like the guys they already had are vital to them so whats it say about the last 3 drafts before this year. I went and took a look and it looks ugly

2020

Denver Granger-Barass (struggling with injuries and form, not good for a top 10 pick)
Seamus Mitchell (on rookie list and just plodding along)
Connor Downie (delisted already)
Tyler Brockman (At Eagles now)

Did well in mid season draft to get Newcombe who covers the DGB miss a bit

2021 -
Josh Ward (horribly out of form, not showing enough for a pick 7)
Sam Butler (not showing much)
Connor Macdonald (dont know?)
Jai Serong (stuck in VFL not doing much)

Then rookie picks in Long whose gone and Ramsden, Blanck who have shown a bit\

2022

Cam McKenzie (shown bits and parts but out of form)
Josh Weddle (very good pickup, will be a gun)
Henry Hustwaite (needs a chance still)
Jack O'Sullivan (dont know?)
Bailey Macdonald (dont know?)

Its a lean 3 years and big issues of having missed out on 2 of the top 10 picks they had badly with McKenzie maybe not living up to expectations either

Its one thing to tank for picks, but you gotta hit them. At present if you go through the clubs top 10 players, they aint hitting them

Those drafts are not the reason they are bad now. Might be the reason they will still be a bad side in 3 years time but you have to look further back than that for the reason they are where they are.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I guess a worrying thing from Hawks fans also is we are discussing poor form of players who were already around pre rebuild. It feels like the guys they already had are vital to them so whats it say about the last 3 drafts before this year. I went and took a look and it looks ugly

2020

Denver Granger-Barass (struggling with injuries and form, not good for a top 10 pick)
Seamus Mitchell (on rookie list and just plodding along)
Connor Downie (delisted already)
Tyler Brockman (At Eagles now)

Did well in mid season draft to get Newcombe who covers the DGB miss a bit

2021 -
Josh Ward (horribly out of form, not showing enough for a pick 7)
Sam Butler (not showing much)
Connor Macdonald (dont know?)
Jai Serong (stuck in VFL not doing much)

Then rookie picks in Long whose gone and Ramsden, Blanck who have shown a bit\

2022

Cam McKenzie (shown bits and parts but out of form)
Josh Weddle (very good pickup, will be a gun)
Henry Hustwaite (needs a chance still)
Jack O'Sullivan (dont know?)
Bailey Macdonald (dont know?)

Its a lean 3 years and big issues of having missed out on 2 of the top 10 picks they had badly with McKenzie maybe not living up to expectations either

Its one thing to tank for picks, but you gotta hit them. At present if you go through the clubs top 10 players, they aint hitting them

The overanalyzing of 19 and 20-year-olds can get in the bin.

 

[Red Bull]

Fair enough, I think Hawks fans give Mitchell a huge amount of rope. He's heading into McKenna, McCartney. Dew, Bolton WL territory and it seems there might be some more pain to come*

*Noting that the Hawks have tended to start seasons slowly of late

At the end of the day, it’s always the W/L that gets coaches.
Even after what Hird did to the dons, it was the W/L that got him in the end.
The pressure from supporters and media becomes to much for club boards and they need to be seen to be holding people to account.
History suggests the rookie coach of a rebuilding team usually walks the plank …