Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Strapping Young Lad]

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What part are you struggling with?

If Mihocek is spending 10% more time on the ground, shouldn’t his average stats be “a whole lot better” better than Chol’s?

 

[simba_]

hawthorn is one of the most soulless moral-less teams in the competition, tanking is just like ken hinkley slaughtering greyhounds to them, part of the process

 

[HairyO]

Since you are so keen to die on this hill, I took a look and Mihocek is only ahead in terms of:

Kicks, handballs, contested and uncontested marks, marks inside 50, goals, behinds, contested and uncontested possessions, tackles, effective disposals, clangers and metres gained. All those football kinda things.

If you had one more of each of those things would you say you are well ahead?

Or would you say you were marginally ahead?

 

[The 747]

What part are you struggling with?

If Mihocek is spending 10% more time on the ground, shouldn’t his average stats be “a whole lot better” better than Chol’s?

If Jai Newcombe is spending 25% more TOG shouldn't his average stats be much higher than Tanner Bruhn?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

If Jai Newcombe is spending 25% more TOG shouldn't his average stats be much higher than Tanner Bruhn?

No, because Newcombe hasn’t had a good season.

Nice deflection though!
You and the Pie fan wanted to make out like Mihocek is far superior player to Chol when another poster said that Chol would be the Pies best KF this year.

Spin it, deflect it, whatever you like.

 

[sr36]

If you had one more of each of those things would you say you are well ahead?

Or would you say you were marginally ahead?

Are we comparing a bloke pushed out by Gold Coast with the most important forward from the reigning Premier? Based on a 7 game sample size where the established forward has statistically outperformed the journeyman?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Are we comparing a bloke pushed out by Gold Coast with the most important forward from the reigning Premier? Based on a 7 game sample size where the established forward has statistically outperformed the journeyman?

This is what your argument keeps coming back to.
Not actual output, just throwaway lines and perceptions.

Who gives a shit whether Mihocek won a premiership.

 

[HairyO]

Are we comparing a bloke pushed out by Gold Coast with the most important forward from the reigning Premier?

Yes. And those comparisons dont see that most important forward that far ahead. Particularly given he gets much better midfielder assistance as well as small forward assistance.

Possibly him being not as good as last year explains the reigning Premier's position on the ladder.

 

[sr36]

This is what your argument keeps coming back to.
Not actual output, just throwaway lines and perceptions.

Who gives a s**t whether Mihocek won a premiership.

No I've mentioned the output. Mihocek's is superior for this 7 game comparison that you think is so significant, he's averaging 40% more goals for a start, 12% more kicks, 5% more marks. But for Collingwood, with our talls it's all about the contest - 50% more contested marks. Then there's this:

Waterman and Mihocek are tied fourth in the AFL for offensive one-on-one contest wins in 2024.

The AFL's best one-on-one forwards in 2024

See which forwards are causing the most headaches for defenders in 1v1s contests👇

www.zerohanger.com

 

[sr36]

Yes. And those comparisons dont see that most important forward that far ahead. Particularly given he gets much better midfielder assistance as well as small forward assistance.

Possibly him being not as good as last year explains the reigning Premier's position on the ladder.

See my post above this.

 

[HairyO]

No I've mentioned the output. Mihocek's is superior for this 7 game comparison that you think is so significant, he's averaging 40% more goals for a start, 12% more kicks, 5% more marks. But for Collingwood, with our talls it's all about the contest - 50% more contested marks. Then there's this:

Waterman and Mihocek are tied fourth in the AFL for offensive one-on-one contest wins in 2024.

The AFL's best one-on-one forwards in 2024

See which forwards are causing the most headaches for defenders in 1v1s contests👇

www.zerohanger.com

Chol has 18 1v1s but has won 25 1v1s... so Im not sure the stats on that site can be trusted.

 

[theiaofseed]

You think Cox is a better player? Come on, if you're gonna post a shitty gif let's hear youre opinion.

 

[sr36]

Chol has 18 1v1s but has won 25 1v1s... so Im not sure the stats on that site can be trusted.

The nature of forwards is that the actual numbers are quite small so the difference looks quite small.

1.8 vs 1.3 goals - it's actually 40% more goals.
1.4 vs 0.9 contested marks is over 50% more contested marks.

So in this patch where there's supposedly no statistical difference between them as KPFs Mihocek is averaging 50% more contested marks and 40% more goals.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

No I've mentioned the output. Mihocek's is superior for this 7 game comparison that you think is so significant, he's averaging 40% more goals for a start, 12% more kicks, 5% more marks. But for Collingwood, with our talls it's all about the contest - 50% more contested marks. Then there's this:

Waterman and Mihocek are tied fourth in the AFL for offensive one-on-one contest wins in 2024.

The AFL's best one-on-one forwards in 2024

See which forwards are causing the most headaches for defenders in 1v1s contests👇

www.zerohanger.com

Here are their averages to date.

Mihocek has marginally better stats, while spending 10% more TOG.

 

[Vindicater]

You think Cox is a better player? Come on, if you're gonna show post a shitty gif let's hear youre opinion.

I think Mihocek is a clear tier better.

 

[theiaofseed]

I think Mihocek is a clear tier better.

Mihocek isn't a KPF

 

[sr36]

Here are their averages to date.

Mihocek has marginally better stats, while spending 10% more TOG.

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View attachment 1982117

Those stats show me that Mihocek is just over 50% more likely to take a contested mark and just under 40% more likely to kick a goal.

But stats aren't just down to the players ability, they're the product of a team, a game plan and the role he plays in it.

Pies don't set up for a tall forward to take umcontested marks leading out from the square. With our tall forwards it's all about contest - winning some and halving as many as they can. Our game plan is built for the messiness of finals.

Our talls don't get a look in on quick transition - it's the speedsters getting out the back who get the uncontested stuff. Or Elliott leading from the square. It's all about contested stuff with our talls

Those stats do nothing more than suggest that Mihocek is 50% more likely to take a contested mark - I think the discrepancy would be even higher if we looked at halved aerial contests.

He's simply better than Chol in aerial contests. And there's little doubt that he's miles better at a ground level contest.

But you keep going with your footy wire comparisons as though all players play the same role in the same system and that these raw stats are an accurate reflection of something.

Checkers isn't a star, but he's a good solid player. 8th in the bnf of a Premiership team is a good indicator of where he's at. Mabior is a good chance of establishing himself as a senior player. I like him and hope he does.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Those stats show me that Mihocek is just over 50% more likely to take a contested mark and just under 40% more likely to kick a goal.

But stats aren't just down to the players ability, they're the product of a team, a game plan and the role he plays in it.

Pies don't set up for a tall forward to take umcontested marks leading out from the square. With our tall forwards it's all about contest - winning some and halving as many as they can. Our game plan is built for the messiness of finals.

Our talls don't get a look in on quick transition - it's the speedsters getting out the back who get the uncontested stuff. Or Elliott leading from the square. It's all about contested stuff with our talls

Those stats do nothing more than suggest that Mihocek is 50% more likely to take a contested mark - I think the discrepancy would be even higher if we looked at halved aerial contests.

He's simply better than Chol in aerial contests. And there's little doubt that he's miles better at a ground level contest.

But you keep going with your footy wire comparisons as though all players play the same role in the same system and that these raw stats are an accurate reflection of something.

I’m not the one saying all players play the same way in the same system, I literally called out that Chol has been asked to play in a new role in a new team with little support, within a side that’s still bedding down its system with so many new faces.

Mihocek should have far better stats than he does for you to claim he’s a superior player, particularly when he’s also spending 10% more TOG, in a far more experienced team that knows its system inside out.

He’s a role player.

 

[sr36]

I’m not the one saying all players play the same way in the same system, I literally called out that Chol has been asked to play in a new role in a new team with little support, within a side that’s still bedding down its system with so many new faces.

Mihocek should have far better stats than he does for you to claim he’s a superior player, particularly when he’s also spending 10% more TOG, in a far more experienced team that knows its system inside out.

He’s a role player.

Everyone is a role player playing their role. Not a star, by he's a top 10 player in a good team, because he plays his role consistently. Beat Stephen May in a final last year. Fair effort.

 

[The 747]

I’m not the one saying all players play the same way in the same system, I literally called out that Chol has been asked to play in a new role in a new team with little support, within a side that’s still bedding down its system with so many new faces.

Mihocek should have far better stats than he does for you to claim he’s a superior player, particularly when he’s also spending 10% more TOG, in a far more experienced team that knows its system inside out.

He’s a role player.

Might surprise you to learn that both Mitchell and McRae have been coach of their clubs for the same period of time

 

[Dewyyyyy]

If Collingwood kick straighter, or at the same conversion rate that we did, they win by 20 points. They had more shots on goal, and that is generally the best indicator as to who deserved to win the game. History has shown this.

I agree regarding Essendon, we shot ourselves in the foot and if we had capitalised we would have won. We can't have it both ways though.

Just lol at whoever edited my post.

My point was that it was winnable but did end up dominating the last quarter and wasn’t able to capitalise. Essendon game I agree.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Sorry Dom, but it’s not easy taking any of your posts seriously. From Ward being better than Nick Daicos to last season saying Fergus Greene was great and tracking like Gunston.

What didn’t say either of that. No one says Ward is better than Daicos and don’t try to say that I did. Greene was looking good at times and his type was Gunston but never said he was “great and tracking like him” you’re just twisting words.

But shows your knowledge. Same with you not knowing who is carrying what injury..

 

[Vindicater]

Mihocek isn't a KPF

Ok I will bite. What is he then?

 

[sr36]

What part are you struggling with?

If Mihocek is spending 10% more time on the ground, shouldn’t his average stats be “a whole lot better” better than Chol’s?

No. Chol does some ruck where you get higher stats than a forward. Plus increase Chols contested marks by 10% and they're still significantly below Mihoceks.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Might surprise you to learn that both Mitchell and McRae have been coach of their clubs for the same period of time

Well if just ignore the entire premise of this thread ever existing, being that Hawthorn started with a brand new midfield in 2023, bottom out…. Sure.