Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[grumbleguts]

We've had an absolute mare of a season with the messaging that's come out of the club.

That comment.

+ the "no ceiling on the season" comment. *

+ leaders at the club talking about Finals. *

+ this idea that the club is done focussing on drafting and there has now been a shift in direction for recruitment (which has been mentioned too many times by some posters).

That was all rather misplaced arrogance and a complete overrating of where we are as a club. The cold hard truth has now slapped us upside the head.

* it's fine having internal goals. But don't go mentioning them in public like that when they're extremely ambitious, especially given how poor the last several seasons have been. Talk is so cheap and those comments are proving to be rather embarrassing in hindsight.

Just an early evening stroll through the thread, I come across this pearler.

Seems to me the leaders at the club were right to be talking about finals, seems they knew exactly where they were.

To quote almost your exact words from the post above: Talk is so cheap and some comments might prove to be rather embarrassing in hindsight.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Just an early evening stroll through the thread, I come across this pearler.

Seems to me the leaders at the club were right to be talking about finals, seems they knew exactly where they were.

To quote almost your exact words from the post above: Talk is so cheap and some comments might prove to be rather embarrassing in hindsight.

Oh that's a bad one

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawthorn are playing sensational footy of late.

Biggest Geelong/Hawthorn game since the 2016 QF coming up? We are in the home stretch of the season and both teams are thereabouts, albeit not genuine contenders. Better fare than the usual 3rd vs 17th type stuff we've had over the past 5 years.

I’m kinda annoyed it’s at Geelong, this pulls 70k+ at the G

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Current ladder positions of teams Hawks have defeated over the last 8 weeks:

16
17
10
14
8
15
9

Form isn’t nearly as impressive as the media are making out

If they can beat Geelong then it might mean something, but I doubt they will

Anywhere from 3-13 is even.

Lions, GWS, Dogs were all inform or generally good sides.

Richmond infront of 92k, Adelaide were in okay form, St Kilda are tough defensively and was a test the group needed, West Coast had their best team all year. Port loss by a point after smashing them for 3 quarters.

You’re significantly downplaying it, you can also play only who’s infront of you.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Current ladder positions of teams Hawks have defeated over the last 8 weeks:

16
17
10
14
8
15
9

Form isn’t nearly as impressive as the media are making out

If they can beat Geelong then it might mean something, but I doubt they will

If we didn't beat Brisbane, they would be 3rd on the ladder and talked about as a challenger to Sydney/Carlton

 

[Philhawk]

Current ladder positions of teams Hawks have defeated over the last 8 weeks:

16
17
10
14
8
15
9

Form isn’t nearly as impressive as the media are making out

If they can beat Geelong then it might mean something, but I doubt they will

Hey scoop, isn’t the more pertinent stat the ladder position at the time we faced that team?

Or nah.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Just an early evening stroll through the thread, I come across this pearler.

Seems to me the leaders at the club were right to be talking about finals, seems they knew exactly where they were.

To quote almost your exact words from the post above: Talk is so cheap and some comments might prove to be rather embarrassing in hindsight.

Yeah I was wrong, and I'm glad I was. At that point in the season we had been putrid, obviously. I doubt anyone saw the last two months playing out the way it did.

The Port game was the turning point for me, feel free to trawl through those posts.

As someone who has never admitted to being wrong in your whole entire life, ever, I know it will be impossible for you to relate to that.

So consider this a lesson O' self-proclaimed Galaxy Brain; people can change their opinions, opinions based on the evidence at hand.

 

[grumbleguts]

Yeah I was wrong, and I'm glad I was. At that point in the season we had been putrid, obviously. I doubt anyone saw the last two months playing out the way it did.

The Port game was the turning point for me, feel free to trawl through those posts.

As someone who has never admitted to being wrong in your whole entire life, ever, I know it will be impossible for you to relate to that.

So consider this a lesson O' self-proclaimed Galaxy Brain; people can change their opinions, opinions based on the evidence at hand.

Superb response.

 

[Caj]

Hey scoop, isn’t the more pertinent stat the ladder position at the time we faced that team?

Or nah.

I would've thought the current ladder position was more relevant as it's a better indication of where the team you played is likely to finish.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I would've thought the current ladder position was more relevant as it's a better indication of where the team you played is likely to finish.

Not this season. Geelong could have finished last round anywhere from 5th to 11th.

It isn't a genuine indication at this point in time.

 

[HairyO]

I would've thought the current ladder position was more relevant as it's a better indication of where the team you played is likely to finish.

5 teams on 32 points, one on 34 points, 3 more on 36 points.

9 teams separated by a game and %.

That tells you where the season ends? The bookies would love you.

 

[peetoo]

I would've thought the current ladder position was more relevant as it's a better indication of where the team you played is likely to finish.

This is round 16 ladder 2023. Big change in positions to the end of 2023
The teams are much closer on point this year. Sydney and carlton who made finals weren’t even on 28 points
Three of the teams on 32 were overtaken by 3 teams on 28 or less

 

[Caj]

5 teams on 32 points, one on 34 points, 3 more on 36 points.

9 teams separated by a game and %.

That tells you where the season ends? The bookies would love you.

How's this then?

The Hawks "big winning run" has included 4 of the bottom 5 teams, and those teams aren't going anywhere soon.

It was an exceptionally soft run which is about to come to an end, let's see how they go over the next 3 weeks.

 

[Blackhawk42]

How's this then?

The Hawks "big winning run" has included 4 of the bottom 5 teams, and those teams aren't going anywhere soon.

It was an exceptionally soft run which is about to come to an end, let's see how they go over the next 3 weeks.

No one is considering this 'winning run' to only be the past 5 games.

It's 7 of the past 8. The one loss being by a single point. Three of those wins coming against sides still currently above us on the ladder.

Could absolutely lose the next 3 games. It's very possible. But it doesn't discredit the past 8 weeks of form.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

How's this then?

The Hawks "big winning run" has included 4 of the bottom 5 teams, and those teams aren't going anywhere soon.

It was an exceptionally soft run which is about to come to an end, let's see how they go over the next 3 weeks.

R8-16
7-1

Wins against / form at the time / form currently
Dogs - in form / contending
St Kilda - decent form / drop off
Brisbane - in form / contending
Adelaide - decent form / fall off
GWS - pretty good form / finals contention
Richmond - okay form / bad side (big game infront of 92k + milestone)
West Coast - okay form / bad side (best side on paper all year)

Loss against Port - decent form - finals contention (1 point).

It has been a very good run of form and will likely continue.

Mix of mediocre sides and good sides.

The teams profile of a strong contest side, stoppages, quick and precise ball movement and fresh off a bye with their best forward returning this week in Lewis.

Hawthorn are the second best side in the last 2 months behind Sydney, just infront of Carlton.

 

[HairyO]

How's this then?

The Hawks "big winning run" has included 4 of the bottom 5 teams, and those teams aren't going anywhere soon.

It was an exceptionally soft run which is about to come to an end, let's see how they go over the next 3 weeks.

And we still have 3 more games against bottom teams.

One of the teams you are including beat the Swans, BTW.

 

[Xtreme]

Hawthorn are tanking as evidenced by the Worpedo charging through opponents as though they are made of the same cardboard that Clarko punches holes through in the coaches box!!!!!!

 

[peetoo]

How's this then?

The Hawks "big winning run" has included 4 of the bottom 5 teams, and those teams aren't going anywhere soon.

It was an exceptionally soft run which is about to come to an end, let's see how they go over the next 3 weeks.

And the first 5 games were tough? Seasons are uneven

 

[janty]

Found it somewhat amusing that Harry Perryman

12

Harry Perryman

Age

26

Ht

187cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.5

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.1

4star

M

4.5

4star

T

2.8

4star

MG

216.2

3star

D

18.5

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

7.9

4star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.3

2star

MG

301.3

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.8

5star

MG

83.2

2star

is being labelled as a "big fish".

 

[Ashman23]

 

[smish]

Found it somewhat amusing that Harry Perryman is being labelled as a "big fish".

Where have you read that?

 

[Yoda_]

Every team has an aberration Strapping Young Lad

today is just a speed bump in the long term view of the club

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Every team has an aberration Strapping Young Lad

today is just a speed bump in the long term view of the club

Oh, now you post…

 

[Yoda_]

Oh, now you post…

welfare check, I had a week of from this abomination of a place we all hate we love

 

[boncer34]

I'm emotionally invested in Hawthorn right now.

Beating Geelong, Freo and Collingwood would be helpful.

Up the Hawks, Carn little Sammy.

Edit: Saw the scores.

Beating Freo and Collingwood would be helpful.