Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[The Golden Glenferrie]

WE'RE BASTARDS

AFL will find a way to take us down a notch

 

[hawkman]

Bottom 6 teams should always double up against the other 5 bottom 6 teams the following year. That makes 22 games.
With gather round that allows for another 'rivalry' game, such as Hawthorn v Geelong

Hawthorn should not have faced GWS, Geelong, Adelaide and Collingwood twice. That's a 2 middle 6 and 2 top 6 team from 2023

So the fixture was too hard for Hawthorn as others have mentioned

Does it allow for 13th/14th ranked sides to shoot up the ladder? Possibly but whats wrong with that?

You want the best teams playing finals. A loaded draw like that makes it too easy for a genuine 12th placed to make finals due to an easy draw

With Gather Round now and 6 return match ups, it really should be 2 against each of the top, middle and bottom 6 which is the exact draw we got this year. Way too logical for the AFL though

 

[Sixpence]

join date 2008
first post 2023

almost like its a troll or alias account Chief

Not sure where you're getting this from, but blue harvest has definitely made posts long before 2023.

 

[sr36]

Yeah, its almost like a fixture is made at the start of the season, so bottom 4 teams play previous bottom 4 teams

Oh wait, Adelaide finished 1 game out of the 8 last season

Muppet

They actually do try to fixture similarly to that. If you finish bottom 6, they try to fixture you to doubles against 3 from the bottom 6, 2 from the middle six and 1 from the top 6.

Pies finished top 6, so our doubles were 3 from the top 6 2 from the middle 6 and 1 from the bottom 6.

But obviously bottom 6 clubs often become good and top 6 clubs often drop.

ANd they do't always stick to the ratios as there's so much other stuff they try to weave in too and it seems lower on the priority list.

 

[Crankyhawk]

By the end of this weekend Hawthorn would have played 35% of their games against the bottom 5 teams. No other team played North, Richmond and Adelaide twice.

#fraudthorn

Can’t help Adelaide crashing (they were expecting finals). Bias would be getting north and wce twice.
Though we were lucky to play crows without rankine both times, that is a big difference

 

[peetoo]

By the end of this weekend Hawthorn would have played 35% of their games against the bottom 5 teams. No other team played North, Richmond and Adelaide twice.

#fraudthorn

Bottom 6 is 33% of the 18 teams, so not that far from average whatever that is not sure 30 or 35% is the case

 

[hawkman]

They actually do try to fixture similarly to that. If you finish bottom 6, they try to fixture you to doubles against 3 from the bottom 6, 2 from the middle six and 1 from the top 6.

Pies finished top 6, so our doubles were 3 from the top 6 2 from the middle 6 and 1 from the bottom 6.

But obviously bottom 6 clubs often become good and top 6 clubs often drop.

ANd they do't always stick to the ratios as there's so much other stuff they try to weave in too and it seems lower on the priority list.

We got 2 from each group so the equivalent of a 7-12 draw

Our doubles ups this year were GWS, Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide, Richmond and North. Lookiing at the start of the season it is not an easy draw. Even now we still copped 2 top 4 teams but got lucky that Collingwood and Adelaide have dropped off

 

[sr36]

We got 2 from each group so the equivalent of a 7-12 draw

Our doubles ups this year were GWS, Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide, Richmond and North. Look at the start of the season it is not an easy draw. Even now we still copped 2 top 4 teams but got lucky that Collingwood and Adelaide have dropped off

Yep. The ratios are an attempt that can't always work when they're trying to ensure that Vic clubs get the right amount of travels, play their doubles against rival clubs, etc...

Personally, I think they should aim for 2,2,2 in each of their thirds to try to equalise the draw. But understand that they're trying to maximise big games by trying to get the top teams to play each other more often.

Although it is lucky of the draw depending on how teas form drops or rises.
Interestingly, if Pies beat Melbourne, we will have gone 6 from 6 with our top teams double ups. 1 draw from 4 with the middle 6, and 1 in 2 from our bottom 6 teams.

If we had have gotten Richmond or WCE as our bottom 6 double rather than you guys, we'd probably still be in the running for finals shit happens.

 

[VernonSpots]

Bottom 6 is 33% of the 18 teams, so not that far from average whatever that is not sure 30 or 35% is the case

To go further, there are 23 rounds and 5 bottom teams:

• Each team guaranteed to play Bottom 5 1x in first 17 rounds
• In remaining 7 rounds, you would expect to play Bottom 5 two more time (5/18*7 games), taking it to 7 games (on average) against Bottom 5 for the season
• 7 games divided by 23 rounds = 30%

So when you say Hawks played 35%, you are basically saying we got 1 extra game vs Bottom 5 (=8) than what you would expect statistically with a completely unbiased fixture. Given the fixture is in fact biased and weighted to be easier to those teams finishing bottom 6 (which we did in 2023), then is it really that surprising or odd?

 

[hawkman]

Hawks must be getting pretty nervous about this Tassie team coming in a stripping them off the Tasmanian taxpayer funded dole check they get for playing in a backwater shithole in front of 11,000. Unfortunately they're not relevant enough to pull big home crowds on their own accord at the G against interstate teams. 36k against Adelaide and Sydney there - youch. Weather is getting better so they might start turning up again.

Haha imagine writing this after 58k turned up on Sunday and there were maybe 10k Richmond supporters there.

Moving out of Tassie will impact away attendances

 

[peetoo]

To go further, there are 23 rounds and 5 bottom teams:

• Each team guaranteed to play Bottom 5 1x in first 17 rounds
• In remaining 7 rounds, you would expect to play Bottom 5 two more time (5/18*7 games), taking it to 7 games (on average) against Bottom 5 for the season
• 7 games divided by 23 rounds = 30%

So when you say Hawks played 35%, you are basically saying we got 1 extra game vs Bottom 5 (=8) than what you would expect statistically with a completely unbiased fixture. Given the fixture is in fact biased and weighted to be easier to those teams finishing bottom 6 (which we did in 2023), then is it really that surprising or odd?

It’s like saying 50% of people are above average weight/height/whatever

 

[peetoo]

This table suggests hawthorn will finish exactly the same ranking using games v final 8 only.
Only brisbane and Collingwood swap otherwise ladder v final 8 is same as ladder

AFL Record Against Finals Teams

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[sr36]

This table suggests hawthorn will finish exactly the same ranking using games v final 8 only.
Only brisbane and Collingwood swap otherwise ladder v final 8 is same as ladder

AFL Record Against Finals Teams

www.wheeloratings.com

But then Pies would drop down after the initial adjustment because we beat Brissy twice, so you'd have to strip us of 2 wins against top 8 teams. And everyone else would need to be adjusted for their performance against Collingwood and Brisbane.

 

[blue harvest]

Not sure where you're getting this from, but blue harvest has definitely made posts long before 2023.

Bizarre really. I'd estimate over 90% of my posts were before that. Another thing that poster got wrong.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

WTF. I have never seen this level of blatant tanking acceptance by a club. Sam Mitchell outright said he wanted to tank and not meddle around in the middle. Their trade period.

Are the ****ing AFL going to step in and do something? AFL need to go down hard on Hawks and strip them of picks

I've never seen another club purposely and blatantly tank. It's unfair they are doing that to obtain a generational player in Harley Reid

They are completely compromising the draft!!!

For the last time, yes! We just aren’t very good at it, please share your tips, we need help.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

For the last time, yes! We just aren’t very good at it, please share your tips, we need help.

Old mate who started this thread had a meltdown and started accusing everyone of being racist

Hope he is ok

We need help though

 

[PenAndPaper]

Can we get priority picks please considering we are tanking?

 

[SSSSSS]

Hawthorn bottom 4 in 2024.

 

[Rob R]

It was so good of North to show us today what tanking is supposed to look like.

Fans of the great club North used to be must be very angry.

On SM-A136B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[SpanishBrowne]

absolutely idiotic thread. wheres the norf one. where's the wet toast one. where's the richmond one.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

With north now officially into the off-season their mouthy posters will rediscover the main board to regale us with how much talent they have on their list and what 2025 will bring.

 

[Rob R]

With north now officially into the off-season their mouthy posters will rediscover the main board to regale us with how much talent they have on their list and what 2025 will bring.

They will be out begging for a PP. Can you imagine the pre game speeches today, Sam noting a home final on the cards while North's leadership was begging them to tank like the tanking champions they are knowing Richmond will knock off GC. If the AFL had any guts , North would be losing their first round pick.

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[SSSSSS]

With north now officially into the off-season their mouthy posters will rediscover the main board to regale us with how much talent they have on their list and what 2025 will bring.

It's the yearly cycle.

Migrate away the main board come April-August.
Return around September and they start salivating at the poor bastard who they will select with Pick #1 or #2.
Beat their chest around October to February as they start to train the house down with all their shiny new toys.
Return meekly into their shells come March as they realise nothing has changed.

 

[Blackhawk42]

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Chadwiko right now.