Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[18082015]

I don’t think the AFL needs to punish the Hawks for going the rebuild North style by trading out their experienced stars for next to nothing

But I don’t thing they should be putting their hand out for a priority pick in a couple of years when predictably they have been mired to the bottom of the ladder

 

[HTPunter]

Mitchell and O'Meara are not matchwinning mids.

Gunston was a free agent.

Hartigan was a spud.

McEvoy was past it.

Not sure they're tanking, just revitalising a list in desperate need of some calls.

 

[janty]

They will still have to lose more than the Jazz to get Wembanyama.

 

[hilly]

No your club is not not tanking your club is just s**t.

True can only see us beating West Coast and perhaps one or two others next year.

 

[hawkman]

Having watched enough Hawthorn games live, one thing you might not pick up watching on TV is just how defensively abysmal our midfield was. Neither Mitchell or O'Meara are our top midfielders anymore (both Newcombe and Moore performed way better in the b&f - even Maginness was snapping at Mitchell and O'Meara's heels) and both Mitchell and O'Meara would have been pushed further down the pecking order if guys like Lewis and Jiath had played full seasons. We couldn't afford to keep both of them there and if that means a re-bore of the midfield then good. How this could be construed as tanking is beyond me.

Having both Breust and Gunston was similar. Both have become poor defensively so teams were able to walk it out of the backline too often

We were generally competitive in most games for 3 quarters. There would always be 1 quarter each week where the lack of pressure especially in midfield would be costly and we would lose a quarter by 30-50 points

 

[The 747]

Having watched enough Hawthorn games live, one thing you might not pick up watching on TV is just how defensively abysmal our midfield was. Neither Mitchell or O'Meara are our top midfielders anymore (both Newcombe and Moore performed way better in the b&f - even Maginness was snapping at Mitchell and O'Meara's heels) and both Mitchell and O'Meara would have been pushed further down the pecking order if guys like Lewis and Jiath had played full seasons. We couldn't afford to keep both of them there and if that means a re-bore of the midfield then good. How this could be construed as tanking is beyond me.

Well, see the weakest part of the Hawks team is the midfield. Now you have got rid of your two most experienced midfielders and you are paying them to play for other teams.

 

[Hamingja]

But I don’t thing they should be putting their hand out for a priority pick in a couple of years when predictably they have been mired to the bottom of the ladder

Over/Under set at 12 months before the calls start.

 

[West Tiger]

True can only see us beating West Coast and perhaps one or two others next year.

Who are the other 2 I wonder?

 

[hilly]

Who are the other 2 I wonder?

Richmond (again), stuck on the 2nd one.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Gutting your list of almost all of your experience rarely ends well. Can understand taking a good offer for one or two, but saying goodbye to almost all those players in one go is a big risk.

 

[Ashman23]

I don’t think the AFL needs to punish the Hawks for going the rebuild North style by trading out their experienced stars for next to nothing

But I don’t thing they should be putting their hand out for a priority pick in a couple of years when predictably they have been mired to the bottom of the ladder

I don't think any club should be asking about priority picks for starters, however, I think a club would need to be bottom four for five plus years for the AFL to offer assistance and even then it should be allowing that club access to players who have previously nominated for the AFL draft and are currently playing WAFL, VFL, SANFL etc. and being allowed to sign up to three of them (so basically early access to the mid season draft type players).

Every single time a club gets a priority pick if effects the whole league as everyone else moves one pick back. That's way too impactful on the rest of the league.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Hawks will surely have at least 3 million spare salary cap space even while paying some of Mitchell and O'Mearas contracts. Think they will throw big money at Jade Gresham and Darcy Parish next year.

Already in discussion with Gresham.

 

[The King!]

better than them winning another ****en premiership

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Well, see the weakest part of the Hawks team is the midfield. Now you have got rid of your two most experienced midfielders and you are paying them to play for other teams.

Ever thought they contributed to us being terrible through there? There both 1 paced who can barely kick 40 m. Newcombe passed O'Meara in terms of impact by the end of the year. He is who we build our future midfield around

 

[Ricketz]

Come on, this was acceptable behaviour to the AFL ever since Fremantle hired Ross Lyon.

 

[iameviljez]

We won at least 1 flag in the 60’s,70’s,80’s,90s,2000’s,2010’s..history is on our side to win one this decade

If and it’s a big if, Sam Mitchell’s rebuild goes to plan we can win a flag in 2027 imo.

To be fair, the 70s and 80s flags in the era of country zones was like playing on Easy mode compared to the 18 team comp with equalisation today.

 

[iameviljez]

Anyway, the entire premise of this thread is just stupid. The AFL distinctly incentivises finishing either at the bottom or the top of the league - and clubs like North Melbourne now show that the best way to become terrible is to be just ordinary for a few years.

The AFL then cannot get bent out of shape for clubs doing exactly what they are incentivised to do.

 

[Linda Lovelace]

We won at least 1 flag in the 60’s,70’s,80’s,90s,2000’s,2010’s..history is on our side to win one this decade

If and it’s a big if, Sam Mitchell’s rebuild goes to plan we can win a flag in 2027 imo.

And none in the 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s...

Does anyone know what 0s we are in again now, by chance?

 

[Saint]

Anyway, the entire premise of this thread is just stupid. The AFL distinctly incentivises finishing either at the bottom or the top of the league - and clubs like North Melbourne now show that the best way to become terrible is to be just ordinary for a few years.

The AFL then cannot get bent out of shape for clubs doing exactly what they are incentivised to do.

It's not a strong incentive at all.

The teams which deliberately tanked in the 2000's like Richmond and Melbourne took decades to recover. It was only their second wave of recovery which finally got them Premiership success and it was 7-8+ years after the tanking.

It's a delicate operation and you don't want to cut too hard. Time will tell if they've done a Demons of the 2000's/North, or Brisbane Lions of the mid 2010's. Plus they've only got Pick 6 this year, so they won't have even started until the following draft.

Given Hawthorn's fan base expectations of success, I don't think 4 years of being bottom 4 (a-la Brisbane of the mid 2010s) is going to keep Sam Mitchell's job, if that's the club he's trying to emulate. How many coaches have Carlton been through in the last decade?

 

[KermitJagger]

I'm not going to read through the comments on this thread, so if I missed this comment I apologise - but why would a club be punished for something that hasn't taken place yet?

Would be like paying a free kick for a player considering a push in the back.

 

[Saab NLAW]

Hawks finally did the right thing, unfortunately it's fixed a couple of trades that screwed them for a generation of players.

Not sure why Mitchell is getting any heat about this

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Hawks finally did the right thing, unfortunately it's fixed a couple of trades that screwed them for a generation of players.

Not sure why Mitchell is getting any heat about this

I am perfectly fine with the course Mitchell is taking, although I wonder if Hawks supporters and their board will feel the same in 3 Years if they are still unable to get out of the bottom 4/6 region.

They have started their rebuild to be fair, but they not blessed with the Academy Zone selections their fellow 00s Grand Final rivals The Swans have had, and it took Sydney a few years themselves to get back into the finals.

No such thing as a quick rebuild anymore. I think they will have some bumps/teething problems along the way, like the Crows have had (whom I feel are on the right path, but not sold on Nicks)

 

[Andyy]

Personally I don't see why tanking should be punishable.

If the AFL are taking the stance that they can't prove it (Melbourne) and want to prop up crap clubs with equalisation by meddling with drafts/FA compo/soft caps etc as they see fit I really don't understand why clubs can't do the same lol.

 

[iameviljez]

It's a delicate operation and you don't want to cut too hard. Time will tell if they've done a Demons of the 2000's/North, or Brisbane Lions of the mid 2010's. Plus they've only got Pick 6 this year, so they won't have even started until the following draft.

I agree, but the reality is that almost every flag in the last fifteen years has been won with a top-five picked player leading the charge. Richmond (Dusty and Cotchin), Melbourne (Oliver and Petracca), Hawthorn (Buddy, Hodge and Roughead), the Dogs (Boyd and Bontempelli) and Collingwood (Pendlebury and Thomas, plus Cloke would have been top-five). The exceptions are Geelong, West Coast and Sydney - and even Geelong had Hawkins, who would have been taken in the top five had he not been F/S.

 

[iameviljez]

Not sure why Mitchell is getting any heat about this

People have been a bit burned by the Melbourne experience. The club pushed Russell Robertson, Jeff White, Adam Yze, Brad Miller, Cam Bruce and James McDonald out the door around 2007 through 2009, and in the process the on-field leadership was decimated, and a whole heap of top-line talent (Morton, Watts, McLean, Sylvia, Trengrove, Scully, Toumpas) got absolutely torched.

More than half the Melbourne team that got smashed by 186 points in Geelong in 2011 had played fewer than 50 games.