Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[The Cryptkeeper]

My mate? Not sure you’d know my mates; again, hardly relevant to the issue of Hawthorn tanking.
Good to see you removed your abusive posts though; mature decision.

You bought up dead pet memberships so I’d steer away from taking the high road if I were you.

And I didn’t take my posts down. Perhaps somebody with thin skin complained to a mod? Not sure.

 

[Saint]

If there was ever a coach and a football club to be given time to establish new standards and rebuild a playing list from scratch it's Sam Mitchell and Hawthorn.

Even the board is new.

Parts of the rebuild started a little earlier (I'd argue it was when we drafted Will Day then kicked into next gear Dylan Moore became a best 22 player) but it's year one from multiple perspectives. There is also a new home-base in the near future which will help facilitate the goals Sam and the board have outlined.

It would be a mind-numbingly stupid and inept group of people running the club to consider his position to be in jeopardy until, at a minimum, mid 2025.

This doesn't make a lot of sense.

A relatively new coach, unproven, and a new board should be given time to establish new standards and rebuild a playing list.

I agree they should be given time, if this is the path they've chosen. But I see no reason why this set of coach/board are special and warrant the "if there was ever" comment.

If there was no improvement at the game plan was still a shambles next year and young players seek to leave to pursue success elsewhere at the end of 2024, you don't think it's worth questioning if Sam Mitchell is the right person for the job, after 3 years in the gig?

 

[The 747]

Geelong and Hawthorn had roughly similar crowd numbers attend their games last year. Hawthorn was dogshit, yet Geelong the premier.

Maybe the more relevant question is why aren’t more people interested in watching Geelong play?

This thread is not about Geelong.

 

[The 747]

No issue with opposition supporters laying the boot in on Bigfooty, it’s the circle of life. When your club’s going well, you ridicule the rubbish teams who can only talk up how good they MIGHT be in a few years time.

I do, however, get a little frustrated with the standard of “analysis” from a large section of the footy journos. Based on what we’ve seen in the first 2 rounds, I really don’t see how much positive difference one or both of Mitchell and JOM would have made to our performance, let alone the results.

Most of them don't do any analysis, they just go off what someone else in the media has said.

 

[Blackhawk42]

This doesn't make a lot of sense.

A relatively new coach, unproven, and a new board should be given time to establish new standards and rebuild a playing list.

I agree they should be given time, if this is the path they've chosen. But I see no reason why this set of coach/board are special and warrant the "if there was ever" comment.

If there was no improvement at the game plan was still a shambles next year and young players seek to leave to pursue success elsewhere at the end of 2024, you don't think it's worth questioning if Sam Mitchell is the right person for the job, after 3 years in the gig?

4 premierships in the past 15 years. That's a massive factor. Sam Mitchell deserves more time than coaches like Ben Rutten and Brenden Bolton were afforded.

 

[The 747]

Again, it was your mate who decided to take the conversation down this path.

But don’t let that fact get in your way.

I asked a simple question since there were a lot of chest beating posts about Hawthorn's membership numbers. Why do these high membership numbers not seem to translate into attendances?

 

[boncer34]

4 premierships in the past 15 years. That's a massive factor. Sam Mitchell deserves more time than coaches like Ben Rutten and Brenden Bolton were afforded.

But Mitchell wasn't the coach for those premierships, he was a player. Brisbane fell into that trap holding onto Voss to long because he'd captained 3 flags less than a decade earlier at the club.

I doubt Hawthorn fall into the same trap.

 

[Cursed Cat]

4 premierships in the past 15 years. That's a massive factor. Sam Mitchell deserves more time than coaches like Ben Rutten and Brenden Bolton were afforded.

Al Clarkson coaching Hawthorn to 4 flags earns Mitchell extra time?

 

[Saint]

4 premierships in the past 15 years. That's a massive factor. Sam Mitchell deserves more time than coaches like Ben Rutten and Brenden Bolton were afforded.

Ben Rutten got less than 2 years. By that measure, Mitchell should be questioned at the end of this year?

(Different circumstances, Essendon weren't deliberately tanking at the time)

 

[Saint]

Al Clarkson coaching Hawthorn to 4 flags earns Mitchell extra time?

Brendon Bolton coached the hawks at 100%, and Hawks fans also think he got too long at Carlton (the same amount they want to give Mitchell).

Hawforn Brane (2008-2023): Everything done at Hawthorn is infinitely better than has happened at any other club and just being at Hawthorn makes you inherently better and more worthy. Antonym: Melbourne Brane(2001-2018).

 

[SSSSSS]

Difference with the above is that Essendon and Carlton are poor clubs masquerading as a successful club. Their boards can barely plan twelve months ahead let alone years.

The biggest question IMO is whether Hawthorn will fall into the same traps, falling back on past glories and acting reactively to what is happening in the present while blinded to the possibility of the future.

Richmond held the line with Hardwick. As did Hawthorn with Clarkson (he still owes Mitchell a lifetime of beers for his tackle on Tuck). Scott a recent example, Geelong supporters had been calling for his head for years. Goodwin, ditto.

Doesn't always work out though, see Hinkley but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt over the the season. Two games is hardly indicative of what is to unfold over the next twenty.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Brendon Bolton coached the hawks at 100%, and Hawks fans also think he got too long at Carlton (the same amount they want to give Mitchell).

Hawforn Brane (2008-2023): Everything done at Hawthorn is infinitely better than has happened at any other club and just being at Hawthorn makes you inherently better and more worthy. Antonym: Melbourne Brane(2001-2018).

After a period of sustained success Hawthorn is bottoming out for the first time in 20 years. A new coach has a clear outline for his plans and supporters and members are happy to give his vision time to come to fruition. That patience exists because of the period of sustained success. It's an important factor.

If there isn't noticeable improvement come this time in 2025 perhaps questions will start to arise.

 

[Saint]

After a period of sustained success Hawthorn is bottoming out for the first time in 20 years. A new coach has a clear outline for his plans and supporters and members are happy to give his vision time to come to fruition. That patience exists because of the period of sustained success. It's an important factor.

If there isn't noticeable improvement come this time in 2025 perhaps questions will start to arise.

I reckon you might be over-stating the loyalty of fans who have become accustomed to success.

Reckon GC might beat Geelong and then Hawks beat Geelong and Hawthorn will drop off the news cycle and the boots will get into Geelong

 

[The 747]

I reckon you might be over-stating the loyalty of fans who have become accustomed to success.

Reckon GC might beat Geelong and then Hawks beat Geelong and Hawthorn will drop off the news cycle and the boots will get into Geelong

Perhaps but not sure it has much bite. We won the flag last year and everyone knows we have a lot of nearly retired players. Would be pretty surprising if we flagged this year.

Whoever is the worst team will get the boots from the media, there is some extra effort in the kicking when it is Hawthorn due to a) lots of AFL flags b) Jeff and c) the current coach comes across as pretty smug.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Some definite revisionism from opposition supporters going on about keeping experienced players....

This time last year everyone was mocking Hawthorn for not trading our experienced players to extract some minor value given they will not be there for our next premiership tilt. Even though we enquired about trading, were offered some good deals but the players themselves did not agree to be traded.

Now this year, everyone is saying we should have kept them and that trading them was stupid and is an obvious effort to try to lose.

What's worse, is that part of the mocking is that everyone is saying we should have kept Gunston, McEvoy, Shiels, etc.

Do people not know that we wanted to keep Gunston and we offered him a contract but his dad unexpectedly died and he wanted to leave Melbourne (as well as give 1 last flag a shot)? Do people not realise that we already had talked McEvoy into staying 1 more year last year as he was ready to retire to the farm? Even Shiels - he spent most of the year in the VFL and when he played AFL, averaged 11 disposals and was completely cooked. Do you keep him on the list at the expense of a talented kid with potential? Had we kept him, I have no doubt we'd be mocked for keeping him around, only to play VFL.

As for Mitchell and O'Meara - you know - the guys everyone was telling us we should trade. Mitchell not only requested a trade but was our highest value veteran asset who had already been phased out of our midfield. The trade went down to the last minute in our effort to get more for him and ended up netting us 2nd round (and other) draft picks and a young midfielder. What was the alternative? Keep a player against his will to see out his contract on a flank (and then lose him for nothing)?

O'Meara was a bit more of a curve ball but he too wanted to be traded, was sought by the Dockers and was helping to facilitate a trade for a sought after young ruck - an area of significant list need AND netted us a 2nd round pick. We are definately better off with that trade than without - not just for the future but even on field now as Meek has been competitive in the hit outs and been bullocking in the middle, such that our midfield has been far more competitive than it was with O'Meara (just lots of other parts of our game absolutely stink).

I also don't think the trades were for the purpose of ensuring we lose more.

It was more to replace players who would not be featuring in our next tilt with talented young players and draft picks that would give us a greater chance of long term success - you know, the exact thing everyone was telling us we should do (go read the 2000 page thread on Hawthorn not accessing the elite end of the draft/not rebuilding properly).

Don't get me wrong - I was someone who argued that you can't only play the kids and that development would be stifled if your team is not competitive. I would also have preferred we kept one of Mitchell or O'Meara but the circumstances in which we found ourseleves and the way those trades played out left us with little option. The remaining experience lost was either not our choice (Gunston FA, McEvoy retiring) or players just clogging the list (Howe, Shiels, Phillips).

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Brendon Bolton coached the hawks at 100%, and Hawks fans also think he got too long at Carlton (the same amount they want to give Mitchell).

Hawforn Brane (2008-2023): Everything done at Hawthorn is infinitely better than has happened at any other club and just being at Hawthorn makes you inherently better and more worthy. Antonym: Melbourne Brane(2001-2018).

What makes more sense?

Hawthorn will be Hawthorn because Hawthorn.
Or
Hawthorn will be Carlton because Carlton.
Hawthorn will succeed or fail based on what they do, and whatever Carlton or Melbourne have failed at has zero relevance as there’s a big differential between environmental and personnel factors in comparison.

If you seriously contend that the history of Carlton or even Melbourne is more relevant to how Hawthorn handle things your brain is a bit broken.

 

[SSSSSS]

In any case I doubt Mitchell is at all worried or concerned about what the media and the nuffies are saying.

He's been doubted and disrespected his entire footy career. If he fails, he fails (with seventeen other teams the odds are always stacked against you) but he won't leave any stone unturned if you go by his work ethic from his playing days.

The notion that he is actively trying to lose is ridiculous. The notion that he is looking beyond the result is correct though.

I guess whether it's tanking or not depends upon your definition.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

But Mitchell wasn't the coach for those premierships, he was a player. Brisbane fell into that trap holding onto Voss to long because he'd captained 3 flags less than a decade earlier at the club.

I doubt Hawthorn fall into the same trap.

Voss was a good coach then went crazy and drafted a bunch of hopeless and hasbeens

Clarko did that to the Hawks.

 

[hk89]

I reckon you might be over-stating the loyalty of fans who have become accustomed to success.

I think you might be speaking from a position of relative inexperience here. As a Hawthorn fan who HAS become accustomed to success, I can honestly tell you that it makes our current ladder position feel a lot let less depressing than it would have without the success. For example, if I was an Essendon fan, I'd be thinking "Oh ****, here we go again". In fact I admire Essendon (and Saints, and Carlton) fans, as I'm sure we'd have far fewer supporters at Hawthorn had we had to become as accustomed to failure as the above mentioned clubs have. The fact they can still barrack for the club after such a long drought certainly speaks well of their loyalty.

 

[The 747]

In any case I doubt Mitchell is at all worried or concerned about what the media and the nuffies are saying.

He's been doubted and disrespected his entire footy career. If he fails, he fails (with seventeen other teams the odds are always stacked against you) but he won't leave any stone unturned if you go by his work ethic from his playing days.

The notion that he is actively trying to lose is ridiculous. The notion that he is looking beyond the result is correct though.

I guess whether it's tanking or not depends upon your definition.

Yep. They are not trying to lose game by game, but they have not been set up to maximise wins in this season either.

 

[Saint]

I think you might be speaking from a position of relative inexperience here. As a Hawthorn fan who HAS become accustomed to success, I can honestly tell you that it makes our current ladder position feel a lot let less depressing than it would have without the success. For example, if I was an Essendon fan, I'd be thinking "Oh *, here we go again". In fact I admire Essendon (and Saints, and Carlton) fans, as I'm sure we'd have far fewer supporters at Hawthorn had we had to become as accustomed to failure as the above mentioned clubs have. The fact they can still barrack for the club after such a long drought certainly speaks well of their loyalty.

I'm old enough to remember our success.

I actually found it refreshing at first when we were ordinary. Less expectation, new and different players to get to know, expectations sometimes exceeded.

It's certainly a time for the hard core supporters.

 

[Saint]

What makes more sense?

Hawthorn will be Hawthorn because Hawthorn.
Or
Hawthorn will be Carlton because Carlton.
Hawthorn will succeed or fail based on what they do, and whatever Carlton or Melbourne have failed at has zero relevance as there’s a big differential between environmental and personnel factors in comparison.

If you seriously contend that the history of Carlton or even Melbourne is more relevant to how Hawthorn handle things your brain is a bit broken.

It seems some Hawthorn people just assume Hawthorn will be better because of the history. The last coach was a good one, so the next one will be. The club has been successful, so it's likely that success will continue. The last set of players were good, so this set of players will be good.

I can tell you from first-hand experience that this is not a good way of predicting a club's future.

 

[wizzard400]

One thing that gets lost amongst all else is that Hawthorn currently has two excellent development coaches at the club in Andy Collins and Zane Littlejohn.

It’s one of the fundamental pillars of list regeneration along with talent identification. The fruits of their labour won’t be seen overnight.

It’s why those with their head screwed on right are not worried. The club knows how to do this right and operate as a modern sports organisation.

 

[SSSSSS]

Yep. They are not trying to lose game by game, but they have not been set up to maximise wins in this season either.

We are definitely going out to win. We are definitely not going out to not lose if that makes sense. Mitchell isn't throwing numbers behind the ball like he has done before to try to wrestle momentum away or slow the play down and play some possession footy.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It seems some Hawthorn people just assume Hawthorn will be better because of the history. The last coach was a good one, so the next one will be. The club has been successful, so it's likely that success will continue. The last set of players were good, so this set of players will be good.

I can tell you from first-hand experience that this is not a good way of predicting a club's future.

Hawthorn supporters have faith in their club.
Unlike half the league, it’s not blind faith based on nothing. It’s based on the numerous times we’ve made tough decisions, rebuilt and won multiple flags in our lifetime.

Succeed or fail, the faith we have in Hawthorn turning things around are rooted in our history.