Hawthorn to play finals in 2024?

[jackenny]

Think their midfield, forward-line, and rebound/scoring chains will torch some teams, especially with their gut running, but their team defence if things are equal will get torched just as bad in turn, especially against teams with genuine outside run / burst speed (Hawks aren’t genuinely quick, but they’re an elite gut running squad - think the GWS game when Whitfield described defending their forward-line as “chasing ass”), but if they’re beaten up in the middle, jeez they’ll get slaughtered.

St Kilda will clobber them for example (because they have genuine speed on the outside and forward line).

Can see Bombers getting pumped first game, though (don’t think they have the midfield or rebound to control a very strong forward of centre side). Day being out will help; Hustwaite could surprise though if he’s selected in that first game. Depends how well McKay intercepts, I guess - but Hawks are developing a short kick / hard running game to try and cut down on intercepts, see how disciplined they are at refraining from long passes / bombing it.

Hawks are overrating Massimo, imo. I don’t think they’re aware how below average his defensive work is; super nice kick, but they’re really hanging onto the romanticism of him vs his old team. Feel like the honeymoon period will end halfway through the season and he’ll replace Morrison as the main whipping boy.

 

[Freomaniac]

Can they? Possibly.
Will they? Maybe not.

There's quite a lot of teams who didn't play finals in 2023 that have the potential to lift themselves into the equation. Hawks will need a relatively good injury run to move passed some of the more seasoned sides.

Against :

• Still the second youngest list in the comp.
• Development isn't always linear.
• Don't have much experienced depth in key posts.
• See above, susceptible to injury/suspension if anyone up the spine misses games.
• Competition for spots in the top 8 will be strong.

For :

• From Round 10 2023, Hawthorn were 9th in the comp for Quarters won. During that period Hawthorn played 9 games against the eventual finalists(2x Saints) and were missing Sicily(3) and Lewis(2) at times.
• From Rounds 18-22, Hawthorn were 1st for points from turnovers and inside 50 differential.
• Hawthorn were 3rd in the comp for Centre Clearances in 2023, which leads to the next point.
• Last 5 games of 2023, Hawthorn were above the AFL average for Goals from inside 50 (despite no Lewis for 2 of those games) and have since added 4 more forwards(Chol, Gunston, Ginnivan, Watson) to the list to play alongside Lewis, Bruest and Moore, who should help improve what was their biggest concern for much of 2023.
• Return of Jiath to the wing will have an impact. Another preseason into Ward, MacKenzie, Weddle, DGB and MacDonald.

Going to be fun to watch them, regardless.

the only way your hawks will make finals in 2024 is you stop pooing on North Melbourne lol

 

[Daka]

I like their midfield & I think it can be competitive with a lot of teams, their forward & backlines are a concern.
If either one of Sicily or Mitch Lewis go down at any stage they will be trouble.

I can see them beating some top 4 sides like last year they beat Collingwood. but I think they will lack consistency & don't have the depth to make finals.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

the only way your hawks will make finals in 2024 is you stop pooing on North Melbourne lol

Drunk again?

 

[Freomaniac]

Drunk again?

Nope... worse than that.

I live in Adelaide. lol

 

[Outtatym]

Nope... worse than that.

I live in Adelaide. lol

You poor tormented soul

 

[Freomaniac]

You poor tormented soul

'Tell Me about it....

I thank North Melbourne for recruiting Lindsay Thomas. He went to my High School. lol

Its bad Here. I have to tolerate Port and Crows fans abusing each other on the street on a Daily basis. I also have to tolerate Port fans hurling abuse at Ken Hinkley at every street corner he walks in the Port Adelaide area. lol

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Lewis and Chol will take the number 1 and 2 defenders.
Breust demands a skilled defender, so probably gets number 3.
Ginnivan and Watson will also require quality defenders, and the one playing on Watson needs to be fast.

Its quite possible that Gunston will have the 'worst' defender from the opponent's team sitting on him.
He might have lost some pace, but he certainly hasn't lost his quality and football brain (one of the best in the team).

More likely the opposition will put their best rebounding defender on Gunston & run off him as much as possible.

 

[SSSSSS]

Think their midfield, forward-line, and rebound/scoring chains will torch some teams, especially with their gut running, but their team defence if things are equal will get torched just as bad in turn, especially against teams with genuine outside run / burst speed (Hawks aren’t genuinely quick, but they’re an elite gut running squad - think the GWS game when Whitfield described defending their forward-line as “chasing ass”), but if they’re beaten up in the middle, jeez they’ll get slaughtered.

St Kilda will clobber them for example (because they have genuine speed on the outside and forward line).

Can see Bombers getting pumped first game, though (don’t think they have the midfield or rebound to control a very strong forward of centre side). Day being out will help; Hustwaite could surprise though if he’s selected in that first game. Depends how well McKay intercepts, I guess - but Hawks are developing a short kick / hard running game to try and cut down on intercepts, see how disciplined they are at refraining from long passes / bombing it.

Hawks are overrating Massimo, imo. I don’t think they’re aware how below average his defensive work is; super nice kick, but they’re really hanging onto the romanticism of him vs his old team. Feel like the honeymoon period will end halfway through the season and he’ll replace Morrison as the main whipping boy.

I'm optimistic re: Massimo. Suckling was one of the worst 1 on 1 defenders I've seen at Hawthorn but he made up for his deficiencies by having a laser guided missile of a left foot. It also helps when you have Gibson, Hodge, Stratton and Lake doing the dirty work for you.

I'm really hoping for Mass that his strength outshines his weakness. He will give up a few frustrating goals but if he can create another avenue to rebound from rather than having a constant reliance on Sicily, I can only see that being beneficial for the club.

 

[Sirlemsip]

More likely the opposition will put their best rebounding defender on Gunston & run off him as much as possible.

Fair comment.

However, if we need to tag an opposing rebound defender we have been using Hardwick as a forward in the pre-season and he is more than capable of locking down whilst also being damaging on the scoreboard.

And for those top tier players like Nick Daicos we always have Finn.

 

[Xtreme]

I also have to tolerate Port fans hurling abuse at Ken Hinkley at every street corner he walks in the Port Adelaide area. lol

How dare they insult our Kenny

Port would slide down the ladder without him.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm optimistic re: Massimo. Suckling was one of the worst 1 on 1 defenders I've seen at Hawthorn but he made up for his deficiencies by having a laser guided missile of a left foot. It also helps when you have Gibson, Hodge, Stratton and Lake doing the dirty work for you.

I'm really hoping for Mass that his strength outshines his weakness. He will give up a few frustrating goals but if he can create another avenue to rebound from rather than having a constant reliance on Sicily, I can only see that being beneficial for the club.

Amon is more likely to be pinging them off the back flank. Mass will be up on the wing as a high half back.

 

[SSSSSS]

Amon is more likely to be pinging them off the back flank. Mass will be up on the wing as a high half back.

I forgot Amon is moving to the flank. Gives us a lot of options to break the opposition press now. Can try and run through it with Weddle or have multiple options for the long kick.

Chol is going to be a massive help structurally. One of our big problems last year was our inability to break the press as we lacked two marking targets. We often had Lewis pushing up the ground to offer an outlet but came at the cost of slowing down our entire play so he can get back into position I50. Made it very hard to get a clean counterpunch and I think it's one of the main reasons why we found it difficult to wrestle back momentum against clubs in their periods of dominance.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Is this a genuine post??

at THE VERY WORST its a 50/50 split??

If this current Collingwood team plays this current Hawthorn team 100 times, Collingwood are winning 80 of them.

My goodness.

Agreed. Reigning premier against 16th placed side has to be considered a likely loss.

I assume the reason he has suggested 50/50 is how well we seem to match up on Collingwood.

Obviously last year's win is noteworthy (from a Hawthorn perspective) but Hawthorn have also won 2 of the last 3 and 5 of the last 7.

Hell, going back even further (even though irrelevant to the 2024 game), Hawthorn have won 19 of the last 25 games against the Pies! (no other side comes close to a 76% win rate over Collingwood).

Remarkable given how consistently strong Collingwood have been whilst Hawthorn have been poor the last few years and out of finals 6 of the last 7 years.

I'm guessing this may also be the reason the OP is so bullish on Hawthorn - having more closely watched what Hawthorn have produced against his team and seen less of the some of the capitulations we have produced against some other sides.

 

[HBFlanker]

Agreed. Reigning premier against 16th placed side has to be considered a likely loss.

I assume the reason he has suggested 50/50 is how well we seem to match up on Collingwood.

Obviously last year's win is noteworthy (from a Hawthorn perspective) but Hawthorn have also won 2 of the last 3 and 5 of the last 7.

Hell, going back even further (even though irrelevant to the 2024 game), Hawthorn have won 19 of the last 25 games against the Pies! (no other side comes close to a 76% win rate over Collingwood).

Remarkable given how consistently strong Collingwood have been whilst Hawthorn have been poor the last few years and out of finals 6 of the last 7 years.

I'm guessing this may also be the reason the OP is so bullish on Hawthorn - having more closely watched what Hawthorn have produced against his team and seen less of the some of the capitulations we have produced against some other sides.

Thats well broken down and the 19 from 25 stat surprises me.

The comment suggested that Hawthorn fans were expecting to win both games against the reigning premier.

Will be interesting to see what eventuates.

 

[SSSSSS]

Thats well broken down and the 19 from 25 stat surprises me.

The comment suggested that Hawthorn fans were expecting to win both games against the reigning premier.

Will be interesting to see what eventuates.

Every team has a bogie team.

Even in our 3peat era we kept getting done by Richmond.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I forgot Amon is moving to the flank. Gives us a lot of options to break the opposition press now. Can try and run through it with Weddle or have multiple options for the long kick.

Chol is going to be a massive help structurally. One of our big problems last year was our inability to break the press as we lacked two marking targets. We often had Lewis pushing up the ground to offer an outlet but came at the cost of slowing down our entire play so he can get back into position I50. Made it very hard to get a clean counterpunch and I think it's one of the main reasons why we found it difficult to wrestle back momentum against clubs in their periods of dominance.

Going to be fun watching Wiz, Ginni, Punky, Dimma and Moore….

As David King points out “you better get your tackling technique right against the Hawks”.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Every team has a bogie team.

Even in our 3peat era we kept getting done by Richmond.

True, but I don't think it's quite the same.

We lost to Richmond twice over that period (in '13 and '15). But more broadly (from '06-'16), Hawthorn beat Richmond 9 out of 13 encounters. Still noteworthy, but:

Hawthorn's 19-6 (76%) is actually quite ridiculous (and spans part of Malthouse, all of Buckley and now Flea).

The only other side (as far as I can quickly tell) with a positive win loss record against Collingwood over the last 25 matches is Geelong at 13-12 (52%), who have been the benchmark for top 4 consistency.

It really is an outlier.

 

[Chadwiko]

the only way your hawks will make finals in 2024 is you stop pooing on North Melbourne lol

[Strapping Young Lad stop crapping on NMFC challenge : IMPOSSIBLE]

 

[SSSSSS]

True, but I don't think it's quite the same.

We lost to Richmond twice over that period (in '13 and '15). But more broadly (from '06-'16), Hawthorn beat Richmond 9 out of 13 encounters. Still noteworthy, but:

Hawthorn's 19-6 (76%) is actually quite ridiculous (and spans part of Malthouse, all of Buckley and now Flea).

The only other side (as far as I can quickly tell) with a positive win loss record against Collingwood over the last 25 matches is Geelong at 13-12 (52%), who have been the benchmark for top 4 consistency.

It really is an outlier.

You know it's an outlier when an uncoordinated giraffe like Fitzpatrick dances out of the centre like prime GAJ and boots the winner from the 60m out to win the game.

 

[Vindicater]

I'm optimistic re: Massimo. Suckling was one of the worst 1 on 1 defenders I've seen at Hawthorn but he made up for his deficiencies by having a laser guided missile of a left foot. It also helps when you have Gibson, Hodge, Stratton and Lake doing the dirty work for you.

I'm really hoping for Mass that his strength outshines his weakness. He will give up a few frustrating goals but if he can create another avenue to rebound from rather than having a constant reliance on Sicily, I can only see that being beneficial for the club.

The big problem Massimo had in our AFL side (and when playing VFL) was that he got lost alot in transition. His player constantly got out the back.

 

[Freomaniac]

I'm optimistic re: Massimo. Suckling was one of the worst 1 on 1 defenders I've seen at Hawthorn but he made up for his deficiencies by having a laser guided missile of a left foot. It also helps when you have Gibson, Hodge, Stratton and Lake doing the dirty work for you.

I'm really hoping for Mass that his strength outshines his weakness. He will give up a few frustrating goals but if he can create another avenue to rebound from rather than having a constant reliance on Sicily, I can only see that being beneficial for the club.

Suprised suckling wasnt pushed up the ground if he was a bad 1 on 1 defender.

If his left foot is good for kicking, why not put him on a wing or even on a forward flank to kick goals?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Suprised suckling wasnt pushed up the ground if he was a bad 1 on 1 defender.

If his left foot is good for kicking, why not put him on a wing or even on a forward flank to kick goals?

Yeah, it clearly didn’t work out.

 

[Freomaniac]

Yeah, it clearly didn’t work out.

Yeah well it worked out as well as you pooing on North Melbourne lol

 

[Sixpence]

Yeah well it worked out as well as you pooing on North Melbourne lol

So, really well?