Hawthorn to play finals in 2024?

[The Lobbster]

North twice
Fremantle
West Coast

Hawks will scalp a couple of big one's again just like last season. The big open MCG suits their style they'll do well there and run their opponents off their feet. Should be 3-3 at least after 6 games.

Saints and The Giants in Tassie Hawks will like that as good as GWS were last season who knows what they'll bring. It was early on but The Hawks just lost that game to GWS. Hawthorn will fancy themselves yet again.

Sides like Gold Coast, Dogs, Richmond, are more then gettable. Dogs got rolled to them last year too with finals more than on the line.

Hawks are on the up. Bombers first up that's an even money split right off the bat.It will be a lot different to the game last season but regardless, they're going to make some noise.

Even Geelong at The Cattery. Could cop a shellacking, could win. It's a new beginning for The Brown and Gold.

Fremantle beat Hawthorn twice last year and comfortably too. Hawthorn are building well but they haven’t shown anywhere near enough consistency to be a finals team in the past few years. Hawthorn are an exciting young team but it’s hard to say they are the best young team

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

I wouldn’t think so.
There will be improvement and I expect us to win anywhere between 8-12 games this season, however a young list with a very suspect backline that is often scored heavily against won’t help.
2025 more probable.
In saying that I think we will be a fun team to watch and will surprise a few teams throughout the year.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Competition is very even. Outside of Collingwood and Brisbane, it's chook lotto from about 3rd to 16th.

Not so sure of that.

Last season after the minor round, Port finished 3rd with 17-6.

Hawks finished 16th with 7-16. Hawks would need to double their number of wins just to make the finals.

That's not very close!

 

[VinnieB]

Valid points to raise, however it's only judging those 3 acquired players on their most recent form and completely ignoring what they achieved only 12 months prior.

Ginnivan, Gunston and Chol kicked 116 goals between them in 2022.
2 of those 3 are still young enough to believe that a form slump (like in 2023) is temporary.

They may not reach those heights again, but even if they combined for 75 goals, that's still more than Kosi, Brockman and Greene put together in 2023.

Plus, unlike 12 monthd ago we'll have a fit Mitch Lewis and a small forward who kicked over 70 goals in his most recent season of under 18 footy.

It's clear why there is some optimism around our scoring potential heading into this season.

Who knows. I think the Hawks need a lot to go right for them.

I think Walton will be exciting to watch, and obviously Lewis is a top player, who just needs to play a full season.

But seriously, Chol hasn’t had a form slump. His goals are as follows:

2016 Nil
2017. Nil
2018. Nil
2019. 9
2020. 8
2021. 7
2022. 44
2023. 10

He is a 27 yr old. 2022 may have just been an outlier given his 8 seasons in the AFL.

 

[HBFlanker]

North would have to improve massively for this. I don't see it. Think your list took a step back in anything in the immediate short term (obviously long term upside went through the roof with two top 3 picks).

Our last 4 matches we dispatched North with ease. If it wasn't for some terrible goal kicking we could have easily won by 15+ goals.

Might be so but i think Hawthorn played above themselves in 2023. I dont see it being repeated.

Just dont know where the goals will come from for Hawthorn. Cant rely on a 33 year old Bruest for the majority of goals like they have in previous years.

 

[hawkman]

Would need a lot to go our way. No major injuries, a number of young players jump to become good AFL players, Blanck to stand up as FB, at least 2 of Chol, Ginnivan or Gunston hit their 2022 form

It is preseason though and there is no fun for a supporter to have no hope in February

 

[Blackhawk42]

Might be so but i think Hawthorn played above themselves in 2023. I dont see it being repeated.

Just dont know where the goals will come from for Hawthorn. Cant rely on a 33 year old Bruest for the majority of goals like they have in previous years.

Maybe Mitch Lewis who averages 2.4 goals a game.
Or Dylan Moore who is the only player other than Bontempelli to average 20 touches and a goal over the the past 2 seasons.
Or pure goal sneak Nick Watson.
Or one (or 3) of Gunston, Chol or Ginnivan who kicked 116 between them only 2 years ago.

It will be a pretty bad season if nobody outside of Breust fires with all these new acquisitions and (fingers crossed) a fit Mitch Lewis.

 

[Sphynx]

North would have to improve massively for this. I don't see it. Think your list took a step back in anything in the immediate short term (obviously long term upside went through the roof with two top 3 picks).

Our last 4 matches we dispatched North with ease. If it wasn't for some terrible goal kicking we could have easily won by 15+ goals.

It's more likely than Hawthorn making finals imo.

 

[HBFlanker]

Maybe Mitch Lewis who averages 2.4 goals a game.
Or Dylan Moore who is the only player other than Bontempelli to average 20 touches and a goal over the the past 2 seasons.
Or pure goal sneak Nick Watson.
Or one (or 3) of Gunston, Chol or Ginnivan who kicked 116 between them only 2 years ago.

It will be a pretty bad season if nobody outside of Breust fires with all these new acquisitions and (fingers crossed) a fit Mitch Lewis.

A goal a game for Dylan Moore? Gonna need a lot more than 23 gaols out of him.

Lewis yep, can play for sure.

Gunston is completely cooked and the other two combined for 22 goals last season.

Its a concern, and its a horrible forward line.

 

[matey]

A goal a game for Dylan Moore? Gonna need a lot more than 23 gaols out of him.

Lewis yep, can play for sure.

Gunston is completely cooked and the other two combined for 22 goals last season.

It’s a concern, and it’s a horrible forward line.

Over summer have seen the Wizard a couple of times live now WOW! No wonder Dogs and Dees tried to do a trade for Hawks pick ……. and a big shout out to Norf thank you

 

[perplexed]

Over summer have seen the Wizard a couple of times live now WOW! No wonder Dogs and Dees tried to do a trade for Hawks pick ……. and a big shout out to Norf thank you

It was the least we could do after you guys bid up McKay's price enough to get us Duursma.

 

[matey]

It was the least we could do after you guys bid up McKay's price enough to get us Duursma.

But Hawks did that for North as a sign of appreciation for taking Edward’s before this young bull

 

[SSSSSS]

It's more likely than Hawthorn making finals imo.

They are both long shots.

 

[Philhawk]

I feel our finals chances will hinge on the fortunes of 2 players.

Mabior Chol

18

Mabior Chol

Age

27

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.5

2star

K

5.3

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.3

3star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.2

4star

and Ned Reeves.

I'm expecting the rest of our list to maintain their levels, if not slightly improve with age. Chol is going to be enormous for us structurally up top with Mitch Lewis. If he can snag 40 goals, that'll go a long way towards our forward unit taking the next step.

Ned Reeves is the other. Has so much talent and is still a 'young ruck'. If he can take that big next step up, it'll compliment what I believe is already one of the better young midfield units in the comp.

8-10 on the ladder is my prediction. But excitingly, we're headed in the right direction with a super talented young list.

 

[matey]

It was the least we could do after you guys bid up McKay's price enough to get us Duursma.

On a serious note he looks a player for the many years ahead for North

 

[MadMaxx]

Who knows. I think the Hawks need a lot to go right for them.

I think Walton will be exciting to watch, and obviously Lewis is a top player, who just needs to play a full season.

But seriously, Chol hasn’t had a form slump. His goals are as follows:

2016 Nil
2017. Nil
2018. Nil
2019. 9
2020. 8
2021. 7
2022. 44
2023. 10

He is a 27 yr old. 2022 may have just been an outlier given his 8 seasons in the AFL.

Chol's job will be different this year. Kicking goals will not be his main KPI (It will be for Mitch Lewis), but bringling it to ground is the ask.

We will have a VERY different FWD line set up this year, with an unusually deep contingent of small/med fwds. Breust will lead Ginni, Dylan Moore, Watson as a crumbling fleet, and in the pre season, they have been swinging Hardwick in there as well. Wingard (if he manages a recovery miracle) could add to that in the later part of the season. For once in several generations, we seem to have also recruited some goal kicking mids too. Gunston there to mentor, and as depth.

I feel Mitchell is working to stack the fwd line with smaller talent, and develop as he put it "The next evolution in the game". I am not smart enough to pick the nuances of how he will do this, but we will see a far different HFC Forward line this year. On paper it is far more potent than in was in 2023. Just need to get it ticking.

You wont see many Hawks kick over 35 (Probs just Lewis) goals next year, but I reckon we will have a lot kicking 20+. And a lot of them will come from general play, rather than Marks.

 

[VinnieB]

Over summer have seen the Wizard a couple of times live now WOW! No wonder Dogs and Dees tried to do a trade for Hawks pick ……. and a big shout out to Norf thank you

That kid looks a talent for sure.
Will be fun to watch him play.

 

[VinnieB]

Chol's job will be different this year. Kicking goals will not be his main KPI (It will be for Mitch Lewis), but bringling it to ground is the ask.

We will have a VERY different FWD line set up this year, with an unusually deep contingent of small/med fwds. Breust will lead Ginni, Dylan Moore, Watson as a crumbling fleet, and in the pre season, they have been swinging Hardwick in there as well. Wingard (if he manages a recovery miracle) could add to that in the later part of the season. For once in several generations, we seem to have also recruited some goal kicking mids too. Gunston there to mentor, and as depth.

I feel Mitchell is working to stack the fwd line with smaller talent, and develop as he put it "The next evolution in the game". I am not smart enough to pick the nuances of how he will do this, but we will see a far different HFC Forward line this year. On paper it is far more potent than in was in 2023. Just need to get it ticking.

You wont see many Hawks kick over 35 (Probs just Lewis) goals next year, but I reckon we will have a lot kicking 20+. And a lot of them will come from general play, rather than Marks.

Well, despite what people think of the Collingwood forward line, we have won a premiership and been less than a kick from winning another, without big name key forwards. Just a good mix of talented other forwards.

So, you’re probably right there.

What’s probably lacking in that Hawthorn forward mix is the ability to retain pressure and keep it locked in. Maybe that’s Moore’s role, or why Mitchell is looking at Hardwick playing forward. Without knowing much about Watson’s defensive efforts, the others look like they won’t be offering much of that.

 

[Joao]

Chol must be an absolute campaigner of a bloke if he's as good as reported here but Dimma has sent him packing twice.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

The forward line is still an issue IMO.

Breust was your leading goalkicker in 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 and will be 34 yrs old this year.
Gunston, is, as your own fans said during the 2023 season, 'cooked'.
Chol is at his 3rd club, not good enough to play senior football in his previous 2 clubs. Has only kicked more than 10 goals in 1 season during his career. That was 2022, yet struggled in 2023.
Ginnivan has a question mark over him. Had a great 2022, but struggled to adapt in 2023. His lack of speed as a small forward forces him to drop. Unfortunately, has struggled to kick goals since the umpires have focused on this, and to be fair, he is a little unfairly treated.

Agree that there are plenty of unknowns still in relation to the forward line, which was easily our biggest issue in 2023.

I'm glad the club have recognised the issue and been pretty active in trying to address it and I'm relatively confident it should improve on 2023.

Let's look at the moves made:

Chol is replacing Kochitzke - who kicked 9 goals in 2023 (and had no real aerial presence whatsoever).
Ginnivan is replacing the injured Wingard - who also kicked 9 goals in 2023.
Watson is essentially replacing Brockman - who kicked 13 goals in 2023.
Gunston is replacing Fergus Greene - who kicked 15 goals in 2023.

In essence, more than 43 goals in total from those 4 players combined would see an improvement (which is an average under 11 goals per player over the course of the season). I think even a negative slanted view would expect that to be surpassed in 2024.

(which doesn't count the fact that our best key forward in Mitch Lewis had almost no aerial support and missed 8 games).

Not expecting a league's best forward line or anything but certainly anticipating a much better ability to convert inside 50's into scores than we saw in 2023.

 

[VinnieB]

Agree that there are plenty of unknowns still in relation to the forward line, which was easily our biggest issue in 2023.

I'm glad the club have recognised the issue and been pretty active in trying to address it and I'm relatively confident it should improve on 2023.

Let's look at the moves made:

Chol is replacing Kochitzke - who kicked 9 goals in 2023 (and had no real aerial presence whatsoever).
Ginnivan is replacing the injured Wingard - who also kicked 9 goals in 2023.
Watson is essentially replacing Brockman - who kicked 13 goals in 2023.
Gunston is replacing Fergus Greene - who kicked 15 goals in 2023.

In essence, more than 43 goals in total from those 4 players combined would see an improvement (which is an average under 11 goals per player over the course of the season). I think even a negative slanted view would expect that to be surpassed in 2024.

(which doesn't count the fact that our best key forward in Mitch Lewis had almost no aerial support and missed 8 games).

Not expecting a league's best forward line or anything but certainly anticipating a much better ability to convert inside 50's into scores than we saw in 2023.

Mitch Lewis is the key IMO.
It’s a pity his body lets him down.
But is he can play a full season fit and closer to goal, and Chol can play further up forward, there’s no reason he can’t kick 70 goals.

I would much rather have a fit Lewis than Curnow. I think he can be so much better.

 

[hawkman]

Chol must be an absolute campaigner of a bloke if he's as good as reported here but Dimma has sent him packing twice.

Or it could be just Dimma

 

[Joao]

Or it could be just Dimma

Could be, I don't think he's likable.

Fair to say Dimma knows what premiership players look like and he doesn't seem to think Chol is one.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

What’s probably lacking in that Hawthorn forward mix is the ability to retain pressure and keep it locked in. Maybe that’s Moore’s role, or why Mitchell is looking at Hardwick playing forward. Without knowing much about Watson’s defensive efforts, the others look like they won’t be offering much of that.

That's a good point. For all the talent lost since our halcyon days, the defensive efforts of Rioli and Puopolo have been one of the more overlooked/underrated areas of declince (at least externally), which was one of the keys to our success.

You are correct in suggesting it is part of Moore's role - who is a workhorse without the ball and ranks 'elite' in both pressure acts and tackles.

It has also been an underrated part of Breust's game, but it has waned somewhat as he has gotten older (still ranks 'above average' for tackles inside 50).

Connor MacDonald also does his bit, without it necessarily being an elite trait of his and Lewis does it well for a key position player.

Chol and Ginnivan are reknowned to be poor in this area. It appears to have been a focus of pre-season training for these two to address this area of concern (with big cheers and splashed all over social media when they have excecuted a chase down tackle in match sim).

Watson more of an unknown but he is a nippy, agile type who loves to get in the face of his opposition (and reportedly has a bit of a chip on his shoulder about his stature and the perception of a reduced ceiling as a result) so I would be very surprised if he wasn't someone who loves to chase down and bury his opponent.

 

[excitingnews]

Could be, I don't think he's likable.

Fair to say Dimma knows what premiership players look like and he doesn't seem to think Chol is one.

Or he was unable to displace reiwoldt and lynch and is now preferred less than king and Walter