How do we take the next step to a premiership?

[pulpdriver]

Six finals, one win: What Lions' latest straight-sets exit means

After another straight-sets exit from the finals, Michael Whiting runs the rule over Brisbane's three strong seasons

www.afl.com.au

Good article by Fish has got me thinking. Won as many games as any team in the league during the last three home and away seasons, finished top 4 thrice but then fallen painfully short in finals against the eventual premiers and/or grand finalists, which might be the same case again this year.

I feel we're clearly good enough, but there's just those little things holding us back. So how do we fix it and ensure 2022 sees a premiership or at the very least a grand final appearance?

Is it the game plan that needs a little re-jigging? Do we need additional personnel? Are we lacking a particular role/player? Does someone need to step up and perform better or is there someone that could do with a role/positional change? Or will it be enough to just stay the course and expect to be better performing finals team if we have Hipwood, McStay and Rayner available?

What do you think?

 

[Nunez]

I think we need more quality around the ball. I think (ideal world) Harry Sharp takes McCluggages spot on the wing, leaving Hugh, Cam, Zac and J. Berry to spend more time on the ball. Neale and Lyons rotate so we have better users for them to distribute to and a better defensive runner to help out.

We move Starce into Birchalls half back flank spot with Answerth playing the lockdown role.

We stick with the three tall structure but Fullarton will come back must more developed after a getting a great experience the past month.

The game plan works, we just need the right pieces in the right spots - injecting more speed and class around the ball.

 

[briztoon]

I’ll get the headline out first.

We won’t win a premiership with a midfield that has Neale and Lyons as the two main drivers.

My view is pretty simplistic.

We have little drive out of defence. Very little run and carry to break lines and set up attacks from turnovers.

We’re very one paced and small in the midfield. We don’t have a Petracca or Bontempeli or Oliver or Wines type. Simply put, we don’t have the players in the midfield to bully an opposition. We get exposed by run and carry on the turn over and through the midfield, because Neale, Lyons, McCluggage and Berry are all slow getting back defensively when we lose the ball.

Up forward, Cameron and Daniher can go in to Prima Dona mode, and not do the defensive things needed from them. They can sulk, and just be downhill skiers at times.

Our game plan is much more about minimising our weaknesses, and plays to our strengths. We currently lack the personal to switch to a plan B. We are very well coached, especially following the game plan, but we don’t have personal or depth to adapt when the game plan isn’t working or we suffer significant injuries.

We will be a very good home and away team, and still finish high. But we lack the one or two game winners through the midfield that will win the big games in finals.


Where it went wrong. Getting Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

at the expense of continuing to build through the draft. To many draft misses in the 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019 drafts.

Most clubs build their core team through the draft. Our draft wins have been;
2015: Hipwood.
2016: McCluggage. Berry is still a wait and see.
2017: Bailey and Starcevich. Rayner has yet to live up to the hype/hope.
2018: Complete wiff. Answerth is still a wait and see.
2019: Still to early to tell. Coleman looks good. There’s hope for Robertson and Prior.
2020: To early to tell.

That’s not enough wins, and no game winner in the midfield.

Even if we get two good kids this year, and Ashcroft next year, I fear we still might be missing that game winner in the midfield.

 

[Lazza16]

Need to re-jig our backline zone. Time and time again we get burnt over the back on a rebound attack.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I’ll get the headline out first.

We won’t win a premiership with a midfield that has Neale and Lyons as the two main drivers.

It's an interesting analysis, and certainly not without merit - you do raise a number of very valid points.

In saying that though, I do remember reading a starkly similar post on the main board about why Richmond wouldn't win a flag with the list they had back in late 2016. The thinking was that Cotchin, Prestia, and Edwards was a skilled and workmanlike midfield, but wasn't going to be able to match it with the best midfield groups.

Obviously Martin's rise changed things significantly, but those three were still their main midfield for those three flags.

I also think it's worth noting that three of the four players you mentioned - Petracca, Wines, and Oliver - were all not that long ago seen as disappointments, and each of the three of them had their name thrown around to some extent in trade speculation. I certainly remember reading a number of Port posters who were open to letting Wines go for the right deal, and Demons posters who felt similarly about Oliver. That was only two years ago too - we aren't talking that far back.

If I had to make a guess, I would suggest that the club internally believe that Rayner is that game-breaker for us. At his best, those are the glimpses we have seen so far. Impossible to say whether he realises that potential or not, but I do feel that in these conversations what is often overlooked is that we might have the answer on our list already (just as Melbourne & Port already did in those instances).

Cam is at the end of his fourth season, with this one a write-off. At a similar stage in the careers of both Petracca & Dusty, they were looking like underwhelming players who would never become who they promised to be. And then, of course, they did - quite suddenly in both instances. Daresay that Rayner could well do the same.

Perhaps it's rose-tinted glasses, but I don't really see any reason why Rayner & McCluggage might not be spoken about in the next 2-3 years like we speak about Oliver & Petracca today. I really don't think that's too bold a call to make.

 

[Lace Out]

Neale and Lyons are perfect to give us a flag next year.

There will be so many different machinations revolving around them

 

[TS13]

We don’t have a Petracca or Bontempeli or Oliver or Wines type.

Add Dusty and even Dangerfield to the list as well, all the other top teams seem to have a bigger body game-breaking midfielder. Most frustrating part is probably watching those same names take a game away from us in a span of 10 mins. While our midfield looks like we just don't have an answer if we don't get first use of the ball during that stretch.

Not all doom and gloom though, could be a Rayner, even a Starce that develops into that role.

 

[fugitive]

Add Dusty and even Dangerfield to the list as well, all the other top teams seem to have a bigger body game-breaking midfielder. Most frustrating part is probably watching those same names take a game away from us in a span of 10 mins. While our midfield looks like we just don't have an answer if we don't get first use of the ball during that stretch.

Not all doom and gloom though, could be a Rayner, even a Starce that develops into that role.

Dangerfield has hardly been a good finals player over last few seasons, definitely not in the same league as dusty to win games off his own boot.

 

[Bucking Beads]

We need to learn to be ruthless! We have the talent.

 

[fugitive]

Fages is the type of coach who has a strong preference for backing the players and offensive game plan to get the job done even if things aren’t quite going our way and I think in cut throat finals you need a defensive plan B to shut teams off if you are in front of 3-4 goals up. If you look at the two semi finals from 2019 & 2021, a bit more composure and control in late stages of the game and suddenly we would be a 3 prelim finals in a row team (Fages acknowledged this himself). Richmond demonstrated the controlled tempo game exceptionally well in the close prelim against Port last year when Nankervis just dropped into defence in the dying minutes and intercepted everything port had to throw at them. Personally, I would be taking a leaf from Hawthorn’s book and practice a defensive game plan (B) over the pre season just for close finals. Possibly a bit more leg speed from defence would be a bonus if we can find someone other than that just impose yourself in the finals and don’t give teams a chance.

 

[moncon]

What might have been, eh? I remember watching the 2015 draft, thinking “Oliver, take Oliver!”. Someone on the night said “he’s not an athlete, but he is a footballer.” And a Lions fan to boot. Oh well. Still, it’s only really this season that he’s been totally ripping it up, having had a very threatening season last year, so our 2017 guys Bailey and Starcevich are hopefully going to do the same, before long !

 

[Dalions]

I’ll get the headline out first.

We won’t win a premiership with a midfield that has Neale and Lyons as the two main drivers.

My view is pretty simplistic.

We have little drive out of defence. Very little run and carry to break lines and set up attacks from turnovers.

We’re very one paced and small in the midfield. We don’t have a Petracca or Bontempeli or Oliver or Wines type. Simply put, we don’t have the players in the midfield to bully an opposition. We get exposed by run and carry on the turn over and through the midfield, because Neale, Lyons, McCluggage and Berry are all slow getting back defensively when we lose the ball.

Up forward, Cameron and Daniher can go in to Prima Dona mode, and not do the defensive things needed from them. They can sulk, and just be downhill skiers at times.

Our game plan is much more about minimising our weaknesses, and plays to our strengths. We currently lack the personal to switch to a plan B. We are very well coached, especially following the game plan, but we don’t have personal or depth to adapt when the game plan isn’t working or we suffer significant injuries.

We will be a very good home and away team, and still finish high. But we lack the one or two game winners through the midfield that will win the big games in finals.


Where it went wrong. Getting Lachie Neale at the expense of continuing to build through the draft. To many draft misses in the 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019 drafts.

Most clubs build their core team through the draft. Our draft wins have been;
2015: Hipwood.
2016: McCluggage. Berry is still a wait and see.
2017: Bailey and Starcevich. Rayner has yet to live up to the hype/hope.
2018: Complete wiff. Answerth is still a wait and see.
2019: Still to early to tell. Coleman looks good. There’s hope for Robertson and Prior.
2020: To early to tell.

That’s not enough wins, and no game winner in the midfield.

Even if we get two good kids this year, and Ashcroft next year, I fear we still might be missing that game winner in the midfield.

Is that the optimistic view Briz?

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

We have a good list and put Hipwood McStay, Rayner and Answerth in the playing group against the Doggies and we win. Injuries are unpredictable.

Back up for Oscar is my primary want. Imagine if he gets hurt!

 

[BuntonRules]

The growth from within will take us the next step. So many good players under 25 hitting their peak. More speed out of the back half as our younger defenders take over. I have been of the opinion for a while that the next 2 years are when our window is open it's widest. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.

 

[lioninthesand]

-Players don't sink piss for their entire break (looks much better this year) and have a really professional/good preseason so we can run out games
-Demand mids defend
-Add a spark to midfield
-Improve our game day coaching/tactical response
-Fagan has always run with the 'we are in the entertainment business' line which is great. We always score big and it works in the regular season. However our style doesent stand up in pressure cooker games. We can't always rely on a shootout in a final. 67 entries againts the digs and we couldn't score enough to win. We have to learn how to shut games down, close the corridor, take the sting out of it etc.

We are great when it's on our terms but struggle when dictated too, we need to learn to have modes where we can wrestle back control.

 

[Nuggo]

Best bit of the article was saying Rayner is super fit.

Our trade and draft period is not over. Let wait and see what unfolds there.

Injuries killed us this year. Lets review that and see if improvements can be made there ie no more Metricon! Tell GC to get their shit together there.

Our 2nds needs rebooting and reviewing.

Will the game plan change - perhaps some changes ie less long kicks out of defense and a bit more run and carry. The midfield oh the midfield - probably needs the most work. Mixing up who is in there when we play teams like Melbourne. Who is the best Midfield assistant coach out there at the moment? Could be an opportunity to work something there.

Really there is heaps that can happen when you put a lot of little things together.

 

[LongLion]

I’ll get the headline out first.

We won’t win a premiership with a midfield that has Neale and Lyons as the two main drivers.

My view is pretty simplistic.

We have little drive out of defence. Very little run and carry to break lines and set up attacks from turnovers.

We’re very one paced and small in the midfield. We don’t have a Petracca or Bontempeli or Oliver or Wines type. Simply put, we don’t have the players in the midfield to bully an opposition. We get exposed by run and carry on the turn over and through the midfield, because Neale, Lyons, McCluggage and Berry are all slow getting back defensively when we lose the ball.

Up forward, Cameron and Daniher can go in to Prima Dona mode, and not do the defensive things needed from them. They can sulk, and just be downhill skiers at times.

Our game plan is much more about minimising our weaknesses, and plays to our strengths. We currently lack the personal to switch to a plan B. We are very well coached, especially following the game plan, but we don’t have personal or depth to adapt when the game plan isn’t working or we suffer significant injuries.

We will be a very good home and away team, and still finish high. But we lack the one or two game winners through the midfield that will win the big games in finals.


Where it went wrong. Getting Lachie Neale at the expense of continuing to build through the draft. To many draft misses in the 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019 drafts.

Most clubs build their core team through the draft. Our draft wins have been;
2015: Hipwood.
2016: McCluggage. Berry is still a wait and see.
2017: Bailey and Starcevich. Rayner has yet to live up to the hype/hope.
2018: Complete wiff. Answerth is still a wait and see.
2019: Still to early to tell. Coleman looks good. There’s hope for Robertson and Prior.
2020: To early to tell.

That’s not enough wins, and no game winner in the midfield.

Even if we get two good kids this year, and Ashcroft next year, I fear we still might be missing that game winner in the midfield.

I feel like we are just missing that special type of player than can just step up at the big moments and carry us on his back ala the Bont, Oliver, Dusty etc.

 

[Nunez]

I feel like we are just missing that special type of player than can just step up at the big moments and carry us on his back ala the Bont, Oliver, Dusty etc.

I think Rayner and Starcevich can be that player for us.

 

[briztoon]

It's an interesting analysis, and certainly not without merit - you do raise a number of very valid points.

In saying that though, I do remember reading a starkly similar post on the main board about why Richmond wouldn't win a flag with the list they had back in late 2016. The thinking was that Cotchin, Prestia, and Edwards was a skilled and workmanlike midfield, but wasn't going to be able to match it with the best midfield groups.

Obviously Martin's rise changed things significantly, but those three were still their main midfield for those three flags.

I also think it's worth noting that three of the four players you mentioned - Petracca, Wines, and Oliver - were all not that long ago seen as disappointments, and each of the three of them had their name thrown around to some extent in trade speculation. I certainly remember reading a number of Port posters who were open to letting Wines go for the right deal, and Demons posters who felt similarly about Oliver. That was only two years ago too - we aren't talking that far back.

If I had to make a guess, I would suggest that the club internally believe that Rayner is that game-breaker for us. At his best, those are the glimpses we have seen so far. Impossible to say whether he realises that potential or not, but I do feel that in these conversations what is often overlooked is that we might have the answer on our list already (just as Melbourne & Port already did in those instances).

Cam is at the end of his fourth season, with this one a write-off. At a similar stage in the careers of both Petracca & Dusty, they were looking like underwhelming players who would never become who they promised to be. And then, of course, they did - quite suddenly in both instances. Daresay that Rayner could well do the same.

Perhaps it's rose-tinted glasses, but I don't really see any reason why Rayner & McCluggage might not be spoken about in the next 2-3 years like we speak about Oliver & Petracca today. I really don't think that's too bold a call to make.

I disagree re Petracca.

While initially underwhelming, even in his early years he showed more than Rayner.

I mentioned a few times on here in 2019 that Petracca was on the verge of breaking out. You could see him building, and see periods of games where he would dominate. 2020 he put it all together consistently.

Coming in to this year, I was hoping this would be Rayners 2019 year.

 

[LongLion]

I think Rayner and Starcevich can be that player for us.

Hopefully so and as we know players keep improving.

 

[Nuggo]

Rayner doesn't need to be the hero but does need to have a better year than 2020. Probably harsh coming off an ACL so perhaps matching 2020 might be considered a win there. Has any player came off an ACL and had a blinder the following year?

 

[jackess]

I'm not too unhappy with where our midfield sits. Getting a fit Berry in there and giving Bailey and Rayner more game time will help our mix.

The midfield overall is still one of the better midfields it's just that when it goes wrong, it goes really wrong.

I think we could changeup the setup a bit to better balance attack and defence.

Backline hopefully if we ditch Birchall and find some form/fitness should be back to it's best; Rich and Coleman setting up the play

And the forwardline as long as we have 2/3 key forwards will continue to be the best forwardline in the AFL.

Also, all the gun big bodied mids in top teams also played in some games when their teams played some horrible footy.

 

[Elixuh]

I subscribe to the view that we have the personnel just may need a few tweaks to who plays what role. I think it is mostly mental for this group.

 

[jackess]

Our midfield also works best when we can get Clug forward of the play. Probably something else we could work on doing better next season. As good as he can be through traffic it's his kicking to a forward target which is his biggest weapon.

 

[davemc_lions]

my 2 cents
We are two slow in the backline and exiting the backline. Coleman looked good in last few games
Also Andrews, Payne, Dizzy and Adams where never fully fit at the same time.. A lot played injured.

Mid as others said we miss a bigger mid and speed. Berry/Rayner could be the bigger mid do need some speed
Even though Neale, Lyon and Zorko great players.. they are same same
Happy to give Dev and Sharp more time if we can

Oscar needs some backup. While waiting on Hipwood trade in a more mature second ruck who can play forward.

Forward line.. for a team that was the highest scoring team of the year and most inside 50's
It gets run out of the forward line way too easy. We also need to lower the eyes more way too many kicks straight to defenders.
Another preseason in Cockatoo will help.

I go to the draft after some more speed and get a mature ruck