How much petrol left in the tank?

[cricketnut14]

The odds suggest Starc & Hazlewood (Boland, Neser) have one more home summer (india) , a sri lanka tour, a possible WTC final , a west indies tour and maybe, just maybe another home summer (ashes) before calling it a day in the test arena (that's 15 tests).

smith and khawaja may well have the same ambitions.

lyon - well he could go on forever.


quicks in the last 45 years and their age as of their last test.

only mcgrath has still been playing at the age of 35+.

the current guys i have noted their age as of our next test later this summer and on the side their age of their last test played.
this pretty much says boland has almost certainly played his last test.

 

[PhatBoy]

The odds suggest Starc & Hazlewood (Boland, Neser) have one more home summer (india) , a sri lanka tour, a possible WTC final , a west indies tour and maybe, just maybe another home summer (ashes) before calling it a day in the test arena (that's 15 tests).

smith and khawaja may well have the same ambitions.

lyon - well he could go on forever.


quicks in the last 45 years and their age as of their last test.

only mcgrath has still been playing at the age of 35+.

the current guys i have noted their age as of our next test later this summer and on the side their age of their last test played.
this pretty much says boland has almost certainly played his last test.

View attachment 1925237

Very interesting data, well put together mate.

Does it strike anyone else watching these three bowling that all of them, Hazlewood and Cummins in particular, LOOK like bowling takes a toll on them?

Ie. in the way that batting looks easy for Khawaja or Kohli, bowling looks easy for guys like Philander or Anderson. They just amble in and flick the arm over and out it comes.

The Aussie trio especially the two I mentioned look like they put in a tremendous effort every time they get to the crease - I’m staggered by their hardiness and ability to keep backing up game after game.

 

[Santana]

Think close to almost half the team won't be there beyond the next Ashes

 

[bluespooner]

Starc has been finished for sometime and Neser should have been preferred in both English and New Zealand conditions. It's one of those things that once you get in the Australian team its hard to get out of it.

 

[PhatBoy]

Starc has been finished for sometime and Neser should have been preferred in both English and New Zealand conditions. It's one of those things that once you get in the Australian team its hard to get out of it.

He took 23 wickets at 27 in the ashes

 

[bluespooner]

He took 23 wickets at 27 in the ashes

I'm surprised by those statistics. Starc just leaked runs bowling to Zac Crawley (189)at Old Trafford as he lacks the accuracy to bowl to fields which is incredibly important when bowling in England.

I would be confident given Neser's record in county cricket and given how Hazelwoood performed in England that you could have expected a similar vein of performances.

 

[Santana]

I'm surprised by those statistics. Starc just leaked runs bowling to Zac Crawley (189)at Old Trafford as he lacks the accuracy to bowl to fields which is incredibly important when bowling in England.

I would be confident given Neser's record in county cricket and given how Hazelwoood performed in England that you could have expected a similar vein of performances.

Neser doesn't offer what Starc offers though. Variety in the attack is a good thing

Starc has been finished for sometime and Neser should have been preferred in both English and New Zealand conditions. It's one of those things that once you get in the Australian team its hard to get out of it.

Getting into the Australian team is incredibly hard. So it's not too hard to imagine it could be hard to get out after you've showen over a long period you can perform at the highest level.

 

[Black Diamond]

Starc has a thing going on where being a left armer and being fast through the air has protected him.

 

[PhatBoy]

Starc has a thing going on where being a left armer and being fast through the air has protected him.

Look I don’t know if I’m reading further into this than I should but I’m assuming this is a shot at his continued selection sooooo I’ll pretend that I agree with it.

That, and taking over 360 test wickets at 27 and with a strike rate in the 40s.
Those factors seem to have made it harder for him to be dropped

 

[Black Diamond]

Look I don’t know if I’m reading further into this than I should but I’m assuming this is a shot at his continued selection sooooo I’ll pretend that I agree with it.

That, and taking over 360 test wickets at 27 and with a strike rate in the 40s.
Those factors seem to have made it harder for him to be dropped

I wasn’t taking a shot at his continued selection, just offering up a reason why he may get more leeway for average performances.

I like him and think he Starc should be in the side for a while longer.

 

[cricketnut14]

I wasn’t taking a shot at his continued selection, just offering up a reason why he may get more leeway for average performances.

I like him and think he Starc should be in the side for a while longer.

what's even more interesting is that if he can make it to the ashes, he will notch up 100 tests (mcgrath being the only aussie quick to achieve this feat).

 

[PhatBoy]

I wasn’t taking a shot at his continued selection, just offering up a reason why he may get more leeway for average performances.

I like him and think he Starc should be in the side for a while longer.

To drop a long term member of a team with a great record, you need a continued run of bad - not just average - but bad form.

If you remove the WTC final, a one-off test, the last time Mitchell Starc went two series in a row averaging 30+ with the ball in a series, you have to go back 18 series.

I’m not sure that’s really all that much leeway.

 

[Black Diamond]

To drop a long term member of a team with a great record, you need a continued run of bad - not just average - but bad form.

If you remove the WTC final, a one-off test, the last time Mitchell Starc went two series in a row averaging 30+ with the ball in a series, you have to go back 18 series.

I’m not sure that’s really all that much leeway.

I agree it isn’t much leeway. It is why calls to drop him are wrong.

The variety he offers is an advantage at selection though. It seems to be why they go for him over Hazlewood in India and Pakistan.

 

[big_e]

The counter argument here is that Jimmy Anderson has taken 220+ wickets at 23 since turning 35.

That's a far more relevant stat than anything that includes people who played 50 years ago.

But even then, extrapolating anything from someone else's performance is a bit silly.

All four of Australia's frontline bowlers have just had excellent summers. They play until their performances decline, no matter how old they are.

 

[Westend]

The counter argument here is that Jimmy Anderson has taken 220+ wickets at 23 since turning 35.

That's a far more relevant stat than anything that includes people who played 50 years ago.

But even then, extrapolating anything from someone else's performance is a bit silly.

All four of Australia's frontline bowlers have just had excellent summers. They play until their performances decline, no matter how old they are.

I agree to an extent big e

but bowling in Australia 5 tests every summer in hotter weather batting decks...wears you down then bowling on green tops most of your career in the UK ....so Age I do think does come into regarding our top four bowlers ...especially the quicks

 

[Black Diamond]

They aren’t really showing signs of ageing though are they?

Each of them is as sharp as ever (Hazlewood actually seems to have found another yard).

None of them are succumbing to injury, and each of them are clearly still better than the alternatives.

 

[big_e]

I agree to an extent big e

but bowling in Australia 5 tests every summer in hotter weather batting decks...wears you down then bowling on green tops most of your career in the UK ....so Age I do think does come into regarding our top four bowlers ...especially the quicks

They manage him really well. Part of that is not having played a T20 since 2009 or an ODI since 2015, but also they know when to play him and when to leave him out.

There's no reason why any of the Australians couldn't do the same - playing four of the five tests a summer, being phased out of white ball internationals, etc.

 

[Coops93]

They aren’t really showing signs of ageing though are they?

Each of them is as sharp as ever (Hazlewood actually seems to have found another yard).

None of them are succumbing to injury, and each of them are clearly still better than the alternatives.

Hazelwood has been injured a fair bit lately to be fair. The last 12 months or so has been his first run of consistent fitness for a couple of years.

Cummins and Starc are very dependable health wise, though.

 

[Around the Wicket]

Starc will get belted by the good sides, doesn't have a lot left but Cummins and Hazlewood still have few years yet.

 

[Westend]

Starc will get belted by the good sides, doesn't have a lot left but Cummins and Hazlewood still have few years yet.

my biggest fear is that come next summer if we have an injury to a cummins and hazelwood....and a new bowler comes in with starc leading the attack. .......

 

[icyflakes]

my biggest fear is that come next summer if we have an injury to a cummins and hazelwood....and a new bowler comes in with starc leading the attack. .......

It's a fair fear, but Boland and Neser are in the wings ready to go who are both solid "stable" bowlers. Starc's role is to be the wildcard, he's the equivalent of a Travis Head type (or Maxwell in white ball). Live by it, die by it style.

 

[Gethelred]

The counter argument here is that Jimmy Anderson has taken 220+ wickets at 23 since turning 35.

That's a far more relevant stat than anything that includes people who played 50 years ago.

I agree with this point.

But even then, extrapolating anything from someone else's performance is a bit silly.

I really agree with this point.

All four of Australia's frontline bowlers have just had excellent summers. They play until their performances decline, no matter how old they are.

I do not agree at all with this point.

We need to change the age demographics of our pace bowling, badly. Otherwise, we need to stagger each player's retirement very, very carefully - with consultation from the players - to prevent the situation where we have to unveil 3 frontline quicks at the same time.

Australian cricket falls in a hole when we have consecutive retirements. We need to find more talent and expose them before all three have no more left in the tank.

 

[big_e]

We need to change the age demographics of our pace bowling, badly. Otherwise, we need to stagger each player's retirement very, very carefully - with consultation from the players - to prevent the situation where we have to unveil 3 frontline quicks at the same time.

Australian cricket falls in a hole when we have consecutive retirements. We need to find more talent and expose them before all three have no more left in the tank.

There's nothing to suggest they will all disappear at the same time.

And even if they did, we'll see the benefit of Australian selectors using white-ball formats to expose players to international level, such as these guys, who all played for Australia this summer:

Will Sutherland: FC Bowling average of 24, age 24
Lance Morris: FC bowling average of 25.4, age 25
Xavier Bartlett, FC bowling average of 26, age 25

Throw in Jhye Richardson, who has a test bowling average of 22 and is still only 27. You could get a couple of years out of Michael Neser and Scott Boland in the interim. And during that period, others will emerge, because they inevitably do.

We have an older bowling line-up right now, no argument, but I don't see the point of forcing blokes into retirement if they are still bowling well.

 

[Black Diamond]

Further with the Anderson example, how well did it work for England trying to force Anderson and Broad to move on?

 

[Gethelred]

There's nothing to suggest they will all disappear at the same time.

History suggest that fast bowling becomes steadily harder to do once you reach the other side of 30, and Australian cricket has collapsed not once but twice due to players choosing to retire at the same time.

And even if they did, we'll see the benefit of Australian selectors using white-ball formats to expose players to international level, such as these guys, who all played for Australia this summer:

Will Sutherland: FC Bowling average of 24, age 24
Lance Morris: FC bowling average of 25.4, age 25
Xavier Bartlett, FC bowling average of 26, age 25

... which is lovely, but ODI's/T20's do not equal test matches, 4 day Shield cricket be damned.

Throw in Jhye Richardson, who has a test bowling average of 22 and is still only 27.

... who has IIRC had his own injury issues which have kept him out of contention for not insubstantial amounts of time.

But if it's Jhye, I'm all for him getting a nod and a go ahead for next summer. 27/28 is still younger than 35.

You could get a couple of years out of Michael Neser and Scott Boland in the interim. And during that period, others will emerge, because they inevitably do.

A 35 year old and a 34 year old do not compensate for the retirements of 35 year olds. You've either misunderstood or I've not explained that my problem is the demographics rather than current performance.

I lived through Doug the Rug, Ben Hilfenhaus and Siddle once already, summers and away seasons of looking like we couldn't produce 10 chances in a day of test cricket, let alone claim 10 wickets. I'd prefer not to do it again due to a lack of options or bowlers with experience at the level.

We have an older bowling line-up right now, no argument, but I don't see the point of forcing blokes into retirement if they are still bowling well.

I don't recall packing Cummins, Starc's and Hazlewood's bags for them and putting them in Viking warships with their cricket bags and a whole heap of kindling.

The idea being, we need to have a plan to transition from today to where we'll be in two summers from now. Whether than involves all three retiring in that time or some form of staggered retirements, it's something that absolutely has to be done.

Further with the Anderson example, how well did it work for England trying to force Anderson and Broad to move on?

I'd argue the situations are different. Broad and Anderson have undermined every captain they've played under the second that captain did something they didn't like. Broad and Anderson openly leaked to the media, both in an unofficial capacity ('Sources claim') and in published articles with their name as writers about bowling rotations, team tactics, pitch/ball conditions. When Root tried to pull them into line around certain aspects of their strategies - pre Bazball - they'd quite willfully refuse put in or bowl to set fields, and blame the coach/captain in the media.

Hazlewood and Starc aren't Anderson and Broad, Cummins is the youngest of the three, the bloke whose played the least amount of tests, and the Australian captain.